Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0)
This is the 2nd toughest game of the week for me, behind Indianapolis -3 in Buffalo. The Texans are currently at -1 here at home for the Chiefs, but they’re also a pick ‘em in some places and could move to single point home underdogs before game time, as the public is on the road team. I’m very wary of picking the Chiefs for that reason. I like to fade the public whenever it’s possible because they always lose money in the long run and I especially like to fade the public whenever they’re on the underdog. Whenever the public consensus picks an underdog to win straight up, it usually doesn’t work out. The favorite is favored for a reason.
I realize that the Texans are mere point favorites here, if that, and that the Chiefs could be favorites by game time, but I’d be wary of them as road favorites as well. That would make them one of 9 road favorites in a very weird week to start the season and I’ve already taken a bunch of road favorites, something I hate to do. I only did that because they were small road favorites who just needed to win straight up essentially and who were much better than their opponent overall. That’s not the case here and, while I expect the Chiefs (projected for 8 wins) to win here in Houston over the Texans (projected for 6 wins), it’s hard to say I’m confident in that, especially with the public on the underdog.
Kansas City Chiefs 21 Houston Texans 19 Upset Pick +100
Pick against the spread: Kansas City +1