Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1) at New Orleans Saints (0-1)
The Saints are in a spot here this week where they typically do well in the Sean Payton/Drew Brees era. For one, they’re at home, where they are 18-6-1 ATS in their last 25 home games. They’re also coming off of a loss and they are 24-7 ATS off a loss since 2008 in games where they have both Drew Brees and Sean Payton, including 16-4 ATS at home off of a loss. However, on the flip side, this line has moved from New Orleans -7 in the early line last week to New Orleans -10 this week and I love fading huge line movements whenever possible because they are almost always driven by public overreaction to something, which creates line value. In this case, that something is the fact that the Buccaneers lost 42-14 at home to the Titans week 1.
A year ago, I definitely would have just picked the Saints anyway because of how good they have been at home, but it’s important to remember that they’ve actually lost 5 straight home games right now, all of which were as favorites. They won their previous 20 prior to that, going 18-1-1 ATS, so they still have a fantastic ATS record in their last 25 home games, but that home magic hasn’t been seen for a few games. They’re also not that good of a team anymore, especially with safety Jairus Byrd, cornerback Keenan Lewis, linebacker Dannell Ellerbe, and maybe running back CJ Spiller all expected out with injury. The Buccaneers are in a much better position injury wise, with Mike Evans expected back this week and no one else of note expected to miss this one. They’re also probably a better team than they looked last week. I’m still taking the Saints, but 10 points is way too high for me to be confident in them at all.
New Orleans Saints 31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20
Pick against the spread: New Orleans -10