Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns: 2015 Week 2 NFL Pick

Tennessee Titans (1-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-1)

As I’ve mentioned many times before, I love fading significant week-to-week line movements, as they are usually the result of overreaction to one game, which creates line value. We have a case of that here as the Browns went from 4 home point favorites in the early line last week to 2 point home underdogs this week. It’s obvious why that happened, as the Browns lost 31-10 in New York to the Jets and the Titans won 42-14 in Tampa Bay against the Buccaneers. However, I still think it’s an overreaction.

The Browns’ passing game is a serious problem, but they still have a top-5 offensive line and an above average defense. That wasn’t clear last week because the Browns turned it over 5 times, en route to a -4 turnover margin, but turnover margins are very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. In fact, over the past 25 or so years, teams that post a -4 turnover margin in a game, on average, have a +0.1 turnover margin the following week.

Common bettors put too much stock into week-to-week turnover margin and, for that reason, they think the Browns are one of the worst few teams in the league, which is what this line suggests. I don’t think that’s true. In fact, I think that they are, in terms of talent level, comparable to the Titans, especially since the Titans will be without top cornerback Jason McCourty for the 2nd straight week. I had them both with a similar amount of wins going into the season, in my season previews.

The Titans are better at the quarterback position and coming off of a huge win, but they still have their fair share of problems and I don’t expect them to play as well as they did against the hapless Buccaneers every week. We’re getting a good amount of line value with the Browns as 1.5 point home underdogs. On top of that, home underdogs are 54-36 ATS since 1989 off of a loss as underdogs in which they had a -4 or worse turnover margin, largely as a result of public overreaction to single week turnover margins.

The Browns are also in a way better spot, with arguably their easiest game of the season on deck, with the Oakland Raiders coming to town. Meanwhile, the Titans have a much tougher and much more important matchup on deck as they host the 2-time defending AFC South Champion Indianapolis Colts, in a game where the Titans will almost certainly be home underdogs (the early line is at 3.5). Teams are 65-103 ATS as home underdogs of a field goal or more since 2012. In addition, road favorites are 78-120 ATS since 1989 before being home underdogs, including 19-29 ATS as non-divisional road favorites before being divisional home underdogs. With the Browns at home and the Titans in a bad spot, I really like the Browns’ chances of winning this game against a comparable opponent and I’ll take the two points with a good amount of confidence. This would be my Pick of the Week if I had any sort of faith in Johnny Manziel.

Cleveland Browns 17 Tennessee Titans 13 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +2

Confidence: High

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New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts: 2015 Week 2 NFL Pick

New York Jets (1-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-1)

One of my favorite things to do in betting is to go against significant week-to-week line movement. The logic behind it is this: significant line movements from one week to another that aren’t the result of serious injury are usually overreactions to one week and thus provide line value. This line shifted from 9.5 last week in the early line and now it’s fallen down to 7, for reasons other than injuries, as injured Colts receiver TY Hilton is more likely than not going to be able to play. The line movement is not a surprise, considering the Colts lost 27-14 in Buffalo last week, while the Jets had one of the biggest victories of the week, beating the Browns 31-10.

The Colts’ loss in Indianapolis did expose them as a team with a great passing offense and good weapons in the passing game, but little else, a weak offensive line and running game and a defense with a bunch of problems. The Bills’ stout defense was able to handle the one-dimensional Colts’ offense, while their weak offense was able to take advantage of frequent good field position provided by the defense and move the ball against the Colts’ porous stop unit.

However, there is still a lot that’s good about the Colts and I like their chances of bouncing back and taking care of business here at home against a Jets team that won’t get to play the Browns every week and that still has serious problems, including the quarterback spot, the pass rush, and the secondary behind Darrelle Revis, especially with Antonio Cromartie now hurt and likely to miss this one. This line suggests that the Colts would be mere 1 point favorites in New York against the Jets, which doesn’t make any sense considering the Colts were 3 point favorites in Buffalo last week and Buffalo is better than the Jets.

In addition to the line value created by overreaction to last week, there are a few other reasons why I like the Colts to bounce back here. One reason is that they typically have bounced back from losses in the Andrew Luck/Chuck Pagano era, going 14-1 ATS off of a loss since that duo arrived in 2012. The Colts are also in a way better spot, with only a trip to Tennessee on deck, while the Jets will host the Eagles next week. The Colts are expected to be road favorites of more than a field goal in Tennessee, while the Jets are expected to be more than field goal underdogs at home against Philadelphia. Teams are 96-70 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of a field goal or more, while teams are 65-103 ATS over that time period before being home underdogs of a field goal or more. It’ll be easier for the Colts to be focused for this one with no upcoming distractions.

The Colts are also especially good at home, going 18-7 ATS at home since 2012, including 8-1 ATS at home off of a loss over that time period. On top of that, they’ve always been able to handle below average teams pretty easily over the past few years, going 18-4 ATS against sub .500 teams in week 4 or later. I know the Jets aren’t sub .500 and it’s not past week 4, but the logic follows anyway. I think, more likely than not, as the season goes on, that the Jets will show themselves to be a sub .500 team and that will start with a big loss here in Indianapolis. Indianapolis is my Pick of the Week.

Indianapolis Colts 31 New York Jets 17 Survivor Pick

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -7

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs: 2015 Week 2 NFL Pick

Denver Broncos (1-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-0)

This line moved from a pick em last week to now Kansas City being favored by 3, a significant line movement from a toss up to expected to win by a field goal. The Chiefs being favored by a field goal here at home suggests that these two teams are essentially even. That big change was likely as a result of Peyton Manning’s struggles week 1, as Manning completed just 24 of 40 for 175 yards, didn’t lead the team to the end zone, and threw a pick six. He looked just as bad as he did to end last season, as he completed 120 of 201 (59.7%) for 1380 yards (6.87 YPA), 6 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions in the final 6 games of the season, including an embarrassing 24-13 home loss to the vastly inferior Indianapolis Colts.

It looked like the off-season didn’t do anything for him, that he’s just as old and tired as he was after 14 weeks last season. Going into the season, there was debate about whether or not Manning could still play at a high level, going into his age 39 season, after the way last year ended and the off-season retirement speculation. Would he be 39-year-old Brett Favre, who led league in turnovers with the Jets, 40-year-old Brett Favre, who led the Vikings to the AFC Championship, or 41-year-old Brett Favre, who couldn’t make it through the season? After one game (especially behind the porous Bronco offensive line), he certainly looked more like 39-year-old or 41-year-old Favre than 40-year-old Favre.

But, then again, the Broncos won. They had arguably the best defensive performance in the league last week (except maybe Buffalo, who shut down that overrated Indianapolis offense) and they have good playmakers on offense around Manning in Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, and CJ Anderson. Their defense was good last year and now seems to have been made great by a healthy Danny Trevathan and the addition of Wade Phillips as defensive coordinator. They had their strong week 1 performance even without suspended safety TJ Ward, a key stopper.

Now, the Broncos did play a Baltimore team that has a weak receiving corps, but the Ravens still have a strong offensive line and running game and the Broncos’ front 7 handled them easily. Plus, the Broncos’ secondary seemingly didn’t allow an open receiver all day, a dominant performance overall. And shouldn’t strength of opponent be taken into account in evaluating Manning’s performance as well as the defense’s? Manning was facing a Baltimore defense that was one of the best in the league coming into the season, before Terrell Suggs tore his Achilles late against Denver.

There’s still a chance he could put up another overall solid season even with his arm strength diminished. Remember, he completed 68.1% of his passes for an average of 8.05 YPA, 34 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions through 11 games last season. And even if he isn’t great, the Broncos have the supporting cast to still be one of the top teams in the AFC, something the Chiefs aren’t. The Broncos just knocked off another top AFC team and are simply on a different tier than the Chiefs. It’s hard to be too confident in a 39-year-old quarterback on the road on a short week, but he’s still a brilliant veteran and going against a Bob Sutton defense that he knows well and that he’s had good success against in the past. He should be able to move the ball with Thomas and Sanders against a weak Kansas City secondary that is without top cornerback Sean Smith. It’s really hard to pass on the field goal here now that it’s available.

Denver Broncos 19 Kansas City Chiefs 13 Upset Pick +135

Pick against the spread: Denver +3

Confidence: Medium

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2015 Week 1 NFL Pick Results

Week 1

Straight Up: 12-4

Against the Spread: 10-5-1

Pick of the Week: 1-0

High Confidence: 1-0

Medium Confidence: 2-1

Low Confidence: 1-2

No Confidence: 5-2-1

Upset Picks: 1-0

2014

Straight Up: 162-93-1 (.635)

Against the Spread: 143-109-4 (.567)

Pick of the Week: 9-7-1

High Confidence: 8-11

Medium Confidence: 54-30

Low Confidence: 34-29-2

No Confidence: 38-32-1

Upset Picks: 18-25

Pre-season Prop Bets: 4-2

2013

Straight Up: 178-88-1 (.669)

Against the Spread: 148-110-9 (.574)

Pick of the Week: 10-6-1

High Confidence: 25-10-1

Medium Confidence: 32-26

Low Confidence: 39-28-3

No Confidence: 42-40-4

Upset Picks: 27-30

Pre-season Prop Bets: 8-3

Top-200 NFL Players: 1-25 (2015)

1-25 26-50 51-75 76-100 101-125 126-150 151-175 176-200

This 8-part series counts down the top-200 players in the NFL. 200 might sounds like a lot, but with 53 players on 32 teams’ rosters, that’s 1696 players. Count guys on the practice squad, guys on the PUP or the IR, and guys who are free agents, but still on teams’ radar. That’s probably 2000 players. These guys are the top 10%. Positional value doesn’t matter because if it did, this list would be too quarterback heavy.

  1. DE JJ Watt (Houston)

Last year: 1

JJ Watt won the Defensive Player of the Year award last season for the 2nd time in 3 years and probably should have won it in all 3 seasons. He’s graded out as Pro Football Focus’ top rated player in each of the last 3 seasons. Those ratings aren’t necessarily meant to be compared across positions, but Watt has been so much better than everyone else that it’s a fairly safe assessment to make. With Watt over the past 3 seasons, we’ve witnessed a stretch of dominance by a player that hasn’t been seen since Reggie White’s prime at the most recent. The only season in his career when he didn’t grade out #1 at his position was his rookie year in 2011, when the 11th overall pick “only” graded out 5th among 3-4 defensive ends. Last season was arguably the best season of Watt’s career and his rating on Pro Football Focus reflected that, though the ratings are not meant to be compared across seasons either, which is why I said arguably.

Justin Houston did have more sacks than Watt last season, 23 as compared to 21, but Watt plays a position where it’s tougher to get to the quarterback. Also, while Houston had just 8 quarterback hits, Watt had 44. No one else had more than 21 in the NFL at any position. Watt added 54 quarterback hurries, which is actually less than Houston’s 56, and in terms of overall pass rush productivity (sacks + .75 hits + .75 hurries divided by pass rush snaps), Houston was actually the better of the two at 15.7 as compared to 15.0, but, again, Watt plays a much tougher position from which to get to the quarterback. No 3-4 defensive end other than Watt was better than 9.7 in pass rush productivity. Watt’s position is also more important to run defense than Houston.

Watt wasn’t nearly as good at his position against the run as he was as a pass rusher, but he still ranked 4th in that aspect this season. He’ll never be as valuable as a top quarterback and he probably won’t even make the playoffs again until his team figures out the quarterback situation, but he’s definitely the most valuable non-quarterback in the NFL. He’s easily the biggest reason why the Texans ranked 10th in opponent’s rate of moving the chains last season, as the Texans didn’t have a single player other than Watt finish in the top-10 at their position. Extended for 100 million over 6 years last off-season, Watt is locked up through his age 32 season in 2021 and at a very reasonable price, considering Justin Houston and Ndamukong Suh got 101 and 114 million respectively over 6 years.

  1. OLB Justin Houston (Kansas City)

Last year: 10

Houston might not be quite as good as Watt, but I still have him #2.  Justin Houston played all 16 games in 2014, after missing 5 games with an elbow problem in 2013. Houston finished 2013 as the #1 3-4 outside linebacker on Pro Football Focus despite missing so much time and picked up right where he left off in 2014, finishing #1 again by nearly a double margin, putting up a near record breaking 22 sacks. A 2011 3rd round pick, Houston has graded out 13th, 4th, 1st, and 1st among 3-4 outside linebackers in his career. The Chiefs didn’t let him hit free agency this off-season, giving him the franchise tag and eventually a 6-year, 101 million dollar extension. Houston will be a feared presence for the Chiefs off the edge again in 2015 and for the foreseeable future.

  1. OT Joe Thomas (Cleveland)

Last year: 3

Since being drafted 3rd overall in 2007, Thomas has made 128 of 128 starts and graded out as a top-10 offensive tackle in all 8 seasons, including 4th overall in 2014. With 5 All-Pros and 8 Pro-Bowls, Thomas’ career is on a Hall of Fame track. It’s just too bad he’s had to spend that career in an offense habitually without talented skill position players. Only going into his age 31 season, another dominant year should be on its way.

  1. OLB Von Miller (Denver)

Last year: 28

The 2nd overall pick in 2011, Miller won Defensive Rookie of the Year and then followed it up by finishing 2nd to JJ Watt in defensive player of the year voting in 2012. Miller missed 7 games with suspension and a torn ACL in 2013, but still graded out as Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked 4-3 outside linebacker, despite the limited playing, making it 3 straight seasons as the #1 player at his position to start his career. Miller “slipped” to 2nd last year in his return from the ACL injury, but he remains one of the best defensive players in the entire league. After playing a hybrid outside linebacker/defensive end position in Denver’s old 4-3 and playing in a 3-4 at Texas A&M in college, Miller is a natural fit for Denver’s change scheme. I’m excited to see the combination of him and new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips.

  1. QB Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay)

Last year: 13

In case there was any doubt, Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in football, something he proved last season. With Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees aging and Andrew Luck not quite there yet, Rodgers could keep that title for a couple years, at least. In 2014, Rodgers completed 65.6% of his passes for an average of 8.43 YPA, 38 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, quarterbacked a team that moved the chains at a 79.38% rate, best in the NFL, graded out #1 among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus, won the NFL’s MVP, and came close to knocking off the Seahawks in Seattle in the NFC Championship game and going to the Super Bowl.

It was about as good of a return from injury as the Packers could have expected from Rodgers after he missed 7 games and most of an 8th game with a broken collarbone in 2013. The Packers went 2-6 without Rodgers in 2013 and they are 18-6 with him over the past 2 seasons combined. Even in 2013, when injuries limited him to 592 snaps, he still graded out 8th among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus, with no one playing fewer snaps and grading out better at the position. Since 2009, Rodgers has graded out 4th, 5th, 2nd, 3rd, 8th, and 1st respectively among quarterbacks, with his only season out of the top-5 coming in an injury shortened season.

Over that time period, Rodgers has only missed 9 games with injury, so he’s usually durable. He’s completed 66.3% of his passes, for an average of 8.41 YPA, 197 touchdowns, and 43 interceptions since 2009, winning 64 of 86 games (74.4%). He’s also added 1577 yards and 16 touchdowns on 309 carries on the ground (5.10 YPC), as he simply doesn’t have a weakness in his game. He’s going into his age 32 season in 2015, but that’s nothing for a top level quarterback. Plenty have had great success at that age and beyond. He could easily be the best quarterback in the NFL again, led the NFL’s top offense again, and pick up his 3rd MVP.

  1. DT Gerald McCoy (Tampa Bay)

Last year: 4

The 3rdoverall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, Gerald McCoy has graded out above average in all 5 seasons of his career and has beaten early career injuries problems to grade out 2nd, 1st, and 2nd in 2012, 2013, and 2014 respectively. After missing 13 games with injury in 2010-2011 combined, he’s missed just 3 over the past 3 seasons. The Buccaneers locked McCoy up on a 7-year, 95.2 million dollar extension this off-season, which looked like a bargain when Miami paid 114 million over 6 years for a comparable player in Ndamukong Suh. The only defensive tackle to grade out in the top-2 at his position in each of the last 3 seasons, McCoy very much makes the Tampa Bay defensive line respectable by himself.

  1. TE Rob Gronkowski (New England)

Last year: 30

At this point last year, Rob Gronkowski was coming back from a torn ACL and was a serious injury concern. When he had January 2014 surgery on that knee, it was his 7th surgery since November 2012, including 5 on a twice broken arm, and one on his back. When Gronk was limited to 7 games in 2013, only 3 of those 9 missed games were because of the torn ACL, as he missed 6 games to start the season with arm and back problems. Throw in a significant high ankle sprain that limited him severely in the Super Bowl after the 2011 season and the fact that his back problems dated back to his collegiate days at the University of Arizona, when he missed an entire season with a back injury, and you had a guy that, even only going into his age 25 season, looked like damaged goods and someone who might never be the same again.

Instead, Gronk was Pro Football Focus’ best tight end by a wide margin in 2014, winning Comeback Player of the Year in the process. He finished 15th in the NFL in receiving yards and had 116 more yards than Greg Olsen, who was 2nd among tight ends in receiving yards this season. That was despite the fact that he wasn’t 100% to start the season, catching just 13 passes for 147 yards and 3 touchdowns in the first 4 games of the season, and despite the fact that he didn’t play in a meaningless week 17 game for precautionary reasons. That means that Gronk had an 11 game stretch in which he caught 69 passes for 977 yards and 9 touchdowns from the tight end spot. The Patriots moved the chains at an 80.87% rate in those 11 games (and went 10-1), as opposed to 65.47% in their other 5 games (2-3), propelling them to finish 6th in the league on the season in rate of moving the chains.

Gronk made it through the whole season injury free and was nothing less than he’s always been when on the field, possibly the most valuable offensive skill position player in the NFL (excluding quarterbacks). He’s caught 294 passes for 4231 yards and 49 touchdowns in his last 57 games and he averages 2.41 yards per route run in his 5 year career. For comparison, Jimmy Graham averages just 2.08 yards per route run over that same time period and Gronkowski is a significantly better blocker. He’s easily the top tight end in the league.

In games where Gronk plays over the past 4 years (since Gronk’s 2011 breakout year), Tom Brady completes 65.1% of his passes for an average of 7.80 YPA, 114 touchdowns, and 33 interceptions, including playoffs. When Gronk doesn’t play, over that stretch of time, Brady completes 58.1% of his passes for an average of 6.84 YPA, 30 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. That’s a significant dropoff in production and there’s enough sample size on both sides to confidently attribute a lot of the difference in Brady’s production to the big tight end. If he can stay healthy, Gronkowski can have a truly special career.

  1. WR Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh)

Last year: 47

With Calvin Johnson nursing injuries last season, Brown took over the mantle of the best receiver in the NFL and, with Johnson getting older, it’s possible Brown keeps that title this season. Brown doesn’t win with height/weight/speed like Johnson at 5-10 186, but he has dependable hands, is the best route runner in the NFL, and is tough to take down in the open field. Brown led the league in catches and receiving yards last season, catching 129 passes (2nd most in a single season in NFL history) on 178 targets (72.5%) for 1698 yards and 13 touchdowns on 638 routes run, an average of 2.66 yards per route run, 7th in the NFL among eligible receivers.

His 5 drops give him a remarkably low drop rate and his 17 broken tackles were the 4th most in the NFL by a wide receiver. He’s not a one year wonder either, grading out 3rd at his position in 2013 (1st in pass catching grade), catching 110 passes on 159 attempts (69.2%) for 1499 yards and 8 touchdowns on 609 routes run, an average of 2.37 yards per route run, 7th among eligible receivers. He also ranked 7th among wide receivers overall in 2011, one of three 1000+ yard seasons in 5 years in the league.

Perhaps most impressively, Brown has caught at least 5 passes in 33 straight games (including playoffs), which demolished the previous NFL record of 19. Remarkably consistent, Brown has morphed into the top receiver in the NFL since Mike Wallace left Pittsburgh two off-seasons ago, proving the Steelers made the right choice by re-signing Brown to a 5-year, 41.96 million dollar extension 3 off-seasons ago and letting Wallace leave on a 5-year, 60 million dollar contract the following off-season. It was a risky move by the Steelers because Brown had only played 2 seasons in the NFL before he got the extension, but it paid off in a big way as that contract might be the best value in the NFL, not including rookie contracts.

  1. DE Michael Bennett (Seattle)

Last year: 15

Guys in the secondary like Earl Thomas, Richard Sherman, and Kam Chancellor get a lot of the credit in Seattle, but defensive lineman Michael Bennett is arguably as valuable as or more valuable than any of those three. He’s been a top-7 4-3 defensive end in each of the last 4 seasons, including a career best #2 last season, dominating as both a run stopper and a pass rusher at 6-3 274. The 4 year, 28.5 million dollar deal Bennett signed with the Seahawks last off-season rivals Antonio Brown’s deal for team friendliest in the NFL.

  1. WR Calvin Johnson (Detroit)

Last year: 6

Wide receiver Calvin Johnson missed 3 games with injury in 2015 and was a decoy in another 2 (catching just 3 passes for 19 yards) because of a severely sprained ankle. In the 11 games he played healthy, the Lions moved the chains at a 72.59% rate, as opposed to 68.92% in the other 5 games. I think we can attribute most of that to Megatron. When healthy, he still put up great numbers, catching 68 passes for 1056 yards and 8 touchdowns in 11 games, which extrapolates to 99 catches for 1536 yards and 12 touchdowns over 16 games. Those are absurd numbers, but Johnson averaged 95 catches for 1564 yards and 11 touchdowns per season from 2010-2013, so those numbers are just another day at the office for him. He “only” averaged 2.29 yards per route run in 2014, but, if you take out the 2 weeks he played hurt, that average becomes 2.46. From 2010-2013, he averaged 2.37 yards per route run, best in the NFL over that time period.

Despite playing two games at significantly less than 100% last season, Johnson still finished the season as Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked wide receiver on 705 snaps, with no one playing fewer snaps and grading out better at the position. If you throw out the weeks he was hurt, he graded out 3rd among wide receivers. Johnson graded out in the top-5 among wide receivers in every season from 2010-2013, something no one else can say, and now he’s graded out in the top-7 in each of the last 5 seasons, again something no one else can say. There are some people who think that, with Johnson going into his age 30 season and coming off of an injury plagued season, that we’re starting to see the beginning of a decline with him. That may be true and guys like Antonio Brown, Demaryius Thomas, and even Dez Bryant may be better than him, but he’s still one of the best players in the NFL and having him healthy all season will be a big boost to this team.

  1. G Marshal Yanda (Baltimore)

Last year: 52

Marshal Yanda, while older, has been one of the best offensive linemen in the NFL over the past few years. Last year, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked guard, after uncharacteristically grading out 15th in 2013. Prior to 2013, he graded out in the top-5 at his position in three straight seasons, 2011 and 2012 at right guard and 2010 at right tackle. Even going into his age 31 season, he’s one of the most dominant players in the NFL.

  1. DE Cameron Wake (Miami)

Last year: 11

Free agent acquisition Ndamukong Suh isn’t Miami’s only dominant defensive lineman, as defensive end Cameron Wake is one of the best edge rushers in the game. He graded out 3rd among 4-3 defensive ends in 2009, 4th among 3-4 outside linebackers in 2010, 1stamong 3-4 outside linebackers in 2011, 1st among 4-3 defensive ends in 2012, 3rd among 4-3 defensive ends in 2013, and 1st among 4-3 defensive ends. The only issue is he’s going into his age 33 season. However, I’d call him the best defensive end in the game if not for his age and he’s yet to show any sort of signs of decline so I think we can count on another dominant year from him. Him and Suh on the same defensive line is going to be a nightmare for opponents’ offenses.

  1. CB Chris Harris (Denver)

Last year: 106

A 2011 undrafted free agent, Harris has improved basically every year he’s been in the NFL, to the point where he’s one of the top cornerbacks in the entire NFL right now. Harris graded out 22nd as a rookie (on 465 snaps), 5th in 2012, 8th in 2013, and 1st in 2014. He joins Richard Sherman as the only player in the NFL to grade out in the top-8 in each of the last 3 seasons on Pro Football Focus. Harris shook off a January 2014 torn ACL like it was nothing, en route to his career best 2014 campaign, during which he received a well-deserved 5-year, 42.5 million dollar extension in December ahead of free agency. Arguably the top cornerback in the NFL, he’s already a great value.

  1. G Josh Sitton (Green Bay)

Last year: 19

Sitton is arguably one of the best guards in the NFL. The 2008 4th round pick has made 94 of 96 starts since 2009 and graded out 8th, 5th, 2nd, 6th, 2nd, and 4th respectively in the 6 seasons since then. No other guard has graded out in the top-8 in each of the last 6 seasons, or even come close to that. He’s graded out above average in every season he’s been in the league and, only going into his age 29 with minimal injury history, he’s still in the prime of his career. He should be dominant again in 2015.

  1. WR Demaryius Thomas (Denver)

Last year: 40

Thomas has put up absurd numbers over the past 3 seasons, playing all 48 games, catching 297 passes for 4483 yards and 35 touchdowns. Playing with Peyton Manning at quarterback and being a target monster has definitely helped him, so his numbers could see a little bit of a dip this season if Manning has a down year, but he’s graded out 2nd, 5th, and 5th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus in his own right in 2012, 2013, and 2014 respectively. No other wide receiver has graded out in the top-5 in all 3 of those seasons. The 2010 1st round pick was also productive with Tim Tebow in 2011, as he had 35 catches for 745 yards and 4 touchdowns in his final 7 games, including playoffs. That’s 80 catches for 1703 yards and 9 touchdowns extrapolated over 16 games. Along with Antonio Brown and Calvin Johnson, you can make a case for him as the best wide receiver in football. The Broncos kept him on a 5-year, 70 million dollar extension this off-season, after franchise tagging him.

  1. MLB Luke Kuechly (Carolina)

Last year: 54

Kuechly, the 9th overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, has graded out 7th, 8th, and 1st among middle linebackers in 2012, 2013, and 2014 respectively and is among the best in the game at his position. Only going into his age 24 season, Kuechly might just be entering his prime. The Panthers made him the highest paid middle linebacker in NFL history this off-season, by giving him a 5-year, 62 million dollar extension.

  1. CB Richard Sherman (Seattle)

Last year: 9

Richard Sherman has made 48 of 48 starts over the past 3 seasons and 58 in 4 seasons in the league, since the Seahawks grabbed him as a steal in the 5th round in 2011. In 4 seasons in the league, he’s graded out 16th, 2nd, 5th, and 3rd from 2011-2014 respectively. He’s the only cornerback in the league to grade out in the top-5 in 3 straight seasons and is firmly in that top tier of cornerbacks with Darrelle Revis and Chris Harris.

  1. DT Ndamukong Suh (Miami)

Last year: 34

Suh is a fantastic football player, one of the best defensive tackles in the game, and arguably one of the best players in the NFL regardless of position. He’s been a top-4 defensive tackle on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 3 seasons, joining only Gerald McCoy as the only two players who can say that. That being said, he was definitely overpaid on a 6-year, 114 million dollar deal, with 60 million guaranteed. That is too much for any non-quarterback, except for maybe JJ Watt, but he’s on his own level. Even Watt got “only” 100 million over 6 years. Still, Suh is a fantastic player who will really help the Dolphins.

  1. RB Le’Veon Bell (Pittsburgh)

Last year: NA

Le’Veon Bell will miss the first 2 games of the season with a suspension for marijuana possession and a DUI. That’s bad news because, when Bell got hurt in Pittsburgh’s week 17 game last season, knocking him out for the playoffs, it made the Steelers a noticeably different offense, leading to a home loss to the Baltimore Ravens in the first round. Bell’s importance to the Steelers wasn’t just proven in the Baltimore loss. It should have been evident all year, as the 2013 2nd round pick broke out as arguably the best running back in the NFL during the regular season, a big part of the reason for Pittsburgh’s offensive dominance. He’s still just a one year wonder, after averaging just 3.52 yards per carry as a rookie, but I think he was the best running back in the NFL last season, apologies to DeMarco Murray.

Murray obviously was the NFL’s leading rusher with 1845 yards, 484 more than Bell who was in 2nd with 1361. However, that’s largely because Murray had more carries, 392 to 290. Bell’s 4.69 YPC was very comparable to Murray’s 4.71, even though Murray ran behind a Dallas offensive line that ranked 2nd in run blocking grade on Pro Football Focus, while Pittsburgh’s ranked 9th. Murray was also much more useful on passing downs, grading out better in pass protection and pass receiving.

Bell’s 83 catches for 853 yards (basically wide receiver numbers) help make up for the difference in yardage totals between Bell and Murray, as Murray caught just 57 passes for 416 yards. Murray only finished with 55 more yards on 69 more touches. While Murray had the higher pure running grade on Pro Football Focus last season (still behind Marshawn Lynch though) Bell was Pro Football Focus’ #1 overall ranked running back. Even as a rookie when he averaged a low YPC, he still graded out above average overall, ranking 31st among running backs, largely because of 45 catches for 399 yards.

  1. S Eric Weddle (San Diego)

Last year: 31

Chargers also have arguably the best safety in the game in Eric Weddle, someone who has been there since the Chargers drafted him in the 2nd round in 2007. Weedle has graded out in the top-6 among safeties in every season from 2010-2014 on Pro Football Focus, the only safety in the NFL that can say that. Earl Thomas and Devin McCourty might be better deep safeties, but I don’t know if there is a better all-around safety than Weedle. He grades out well both against the run and against the pass and has played about half of his snaps within 8 yards of the line of scrimmage and half outside of 8 yards in the last 2 seasons.

  1. RB Marshawn Lynch (Seattle)

Last year: 108

Over the past 3 seasons, Lynch has rushed for 4153 yards and 36 touchdowns on 896 carries, an average of 4.64 YPC and he’s been even better than his numbers suggest as, like Wilson, he has to deal with a poor offensive line and a receiving corps that rarely draws double teams. The fact that the Seahawks finished 9th in rate of moving the chains last season on offense despite just 4 players who played more than 300 snaps and graded out above average on Pro Football Focus (Lynch, Wilson, Doug Baldwin, and Max Unger) is a testament to how good both Wilson and Lynch are.

Lynch has graded out 5th, 4th, and 2nd on Pro Football Focus in those last 3 seasons respectively and his 221 broken tackles on carries lead the NFL over that time period. He’s also the only running back in the NFL to grade out in the top-5 among running backs on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 3 seasons. There’s a case to be made that he’s been the best running back in football over the past 3 seasons, despite what guys like Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, DeMarco Murray, and LeVeon Bell have done over single seasons over the past 3 years.

One issue is that he’s going into his age 29 season with 2033 career carries. Of the top-25 all-time leading rushers who have played in the last decade, the average one has his last 1000 yard season in his age 30 season at 2602 career carries. That suggests that Lynch has about 2, maybe 3 good years left in the tank and that possibly his best days are behind him. The only other issue is that Lynch isn’t a great pass catcher, as he has just 96 catches over the past 3 seasons and hasn’t graded out above average as a pass catcher on Pro Football Focus since his rookie year in 2007. That’s nitpicking though and he should still have a strong year in 2015.

  1. C Nick Mangold (NY Jets)

Last year: 136

Mangold is going into his age 31 season, but he hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down yet, grading out 1st among centers last season, making it 8 straight seasons where he’s graded out above average. He’s been in the top-2 among centers in 6 of those 8 seasons and in the top-6 among centers in 6 of those 8 seasons and could easily do so again this season. Even though he’s played so well, Mangold’s age is a concern and he might not be quite as dominant in 2015, though he should still play very well.

  1. CB Darrelle Revis (NY Jets)

Last year: 12

Revis finished 3rd among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus in 2008, 2nd in 2009, 18th in 2010, 1st in 2011, 1st in 2013, and 4th in 2014, with a torn ACL in 2012 that didn’t slow his career down in between. He’s bounced around from the Jets to the Buccaneers to the Patriots back to the Jets over the past few seasons for a few reasons. He tore his ACL in 2012 and then was traded to the Buccaneers for a 1stround pick ahead of his contract year. Tampa Bay then let him go rather than paying him $16 million in 2014 and the Patriots did the same this off-season, rather than paying him $20 million in 2015. However, he’s arguably the best cornerback in the NFL, one of the best players in the entire NFL, and absolutely deserves long-term security, even going into his age 30 season, which he got on a 5-year, 70 million dollar deal. He’s yet to show a single sign of slowing down thus far.

  1. DE Calais Campbell (Arizona)

Last year: 21

Calais Campbell is arguably the Cardinals’ most indispensable player on either side of the field (only behind maybe the quarterback Carson Palmer). He was Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked 3-4 defensive end last season and has graded out in the top-4 in each of the last 4 seasons at the position, something no one else can say. Only going into his age 29 season with just 7 games missed in 7 seasons in his career, I see no reason that can’t continue next season. Aside from JJ Watt, he’s arguably the best 3-4 defensive end in the game.

  1. WR Odell Beckham (NY Giants)

Last year: NA

Beckham finished his rookie season in 2014 with 91 catches for 1302 yards and 12 touchdowns despite missing valuable off-season time and doing so in just 12 games. That’s incredible and virtually unheard of for a rookie. Even in the golden era of passing offenses in the past 10 years, the average first round rookie wideout has averaged just 48 catches for 703 yards and 4 touchdowns. Transitioning from being a collegiate receiver to an NFL receiver is really tough, even for the most talented of players. Only 11 rookie wideouts have had a 1000+ yard season in the last 20 years. 1302 yards in 12 games is absurd.

Beckham’s 108.8 yards per game led the NFL. And it wasn’t like Eli was just forcing him the ball as he was targeted just 129 times (14th most in the NFL), catching 70.5% of them for 91 catches, that as opposed to just 2 drops. Beckham also caught 12 touchdowns and only 2 balls intended for him were intercepted. Eli had a 127.6 QB rating throwing to Beckham this season, 4th best among eligible wide receivers, meaning Eli’s quarterback rating was 35.5 points better when throwing to Beckham than it was overall, the best margin by an eligible wide receiver this season. Beckham’s 2.74 yards per route run were also 4th in the NFL. For his efforts, he was Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked wide receiver as a rookie, including 2nd in pure pass catching grade, meaning he basically played at an All-Pro level, despite missing 4 games with injury. If you take out the first 4 weeks of the season, he was Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked wide receiver both overall and in pass catching grade.

Beckham was even better down the stretch as he started to get a feel for the offense. Beckham had 85 catches for 1233 yards and 11 touchdowns in his final 10 games of the season and 60 catches for 842 yards and 9 touchdowns in the final 6 games of the season. The latter translates to 160 catches for 2245 yards and 24 touchdowns over a 16 game season, which would break all sorts of records. Even Beckham isn’t good enough to put up those kinds of numbers, but it’s just another reminder that Beckham could easily be more productive in his 2nd season in the league in 2015. It’s usually hyperbolic to say that someone with 12 career games played is one of the best players in the NFL regardless of position, but, in this case, it’s true.

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Top-200 NFL Players: 26-50 (2015)

1-25 26-50 51-75 76-100 101-125 126-150 151-175 176-200

This 8-part series counts down the top-200 players in the NFL. 200 might sounds like a lot, but with 53 players on 32 teams’ rosters, that’s 1696 players. Count guys on the practice squad, guys on the PUP or the IR, and guys who are free agents, but still on teams’ radar. That’s probably 2000 players. These guys are the top 10%. Positional value doesn’t matter because if it did, this list would be too quarterback heavy.

  1. C Travis Frederick (Dallas)

Last year: 195

Travis Frederick is one of 3 offensive linemen that the Cowboys have taken in the first round since 2011, left tackle Tyron Smith in 2011, the center Frederick in 2013, and right guard Zack Martin in 2014. Like the other two, Frederick was a great pick and a big part of the reason why the Cowboys have arguably the best offensive line in football. He graded out 8th among centers as a rookie in 2013 and then 2nd last season, while making all 32 starts. He’s arguably the best of the trio.

  1. OLB Khalil Mack (Oakland)

Last year: NA

Khalil Mack was the 5th overall pick in 2014 and is also someone I argued should have been Defensive Rookie of the Year. Mack was technically a 4-3 outside linebacker last season, ranking #1 at his position, but he did his most important work rushing the passer off the edge of the defensive line in sub packages, playing the Von Miller role. Interestingly enough, Miller ranked #1 among 4-3 outside linebackers, one spot ahead of Von Miller, who had his 3-year reign as the top 4-3 outside linebacker snapped by the rookie Mack last season, a reign that had dated back to Miller’s rookie year in 2011. If Mack keeps this up, the hybrid outside linebacker/defensive end role in a 4-3 might have to be renamed the Khalil Mack role, rather than the Von Miller role, especially with Miller switching to 3-4 outside linebacker in Denver’s new defense. Along with fellow rookie, defensive tackle Aaron Donald, Mack was the first rookie to grade out #1 at his position on either side of the ball since Miller did so in 2011.

Mack only had 4 sacks on the season, but his pass rush numbers were better than his sack totals as he also managed 10 hits and 40 hurries. That still means his pass rush productivity was significantly worse than Miller’s, as Miller had 15 sacks, 11 hits, and 47 hurries, giving him a pass rush productivity of 11.8, while Mack was at 9.1. However, Miller had the luxury of playing with a lot of leads on a Peyton Manning quarterbacked team, giving him more easy pass rush situations. Mack also was significantly better than Miller as a run stopper.

Besides, any time you’re the best player on a defense that’s competent (16th in rate of moving the chains allowed), despite your only good teammate being Justin Tuck (one of two Oakland defenders to play more than 400 snaps and grade out above average), you’re doing something right. Mack should once again have a strong season in his 2nd season in the league, especially now that Jack Del Rio, Miller’s defensive coordinator in Denver from 2011-2013, is the head coach. He might not be quite as good, but it’s clear he’s one of the top few defensive players in the game. It’ll be up to the rest of the defense to improve around him.

  1. DT Aaron Donald (St. Louis)

Last year: NA

Now we go from my pick for Defensive Rookie of the Year (Mack) to the actual Defensive Rookie of the Year (Donald). I love Mack and Donald is only slightly behind him in my book. Like Mack, he ranked #1 at his position on Pro Football Focus, doing so at defensive tackle. Reminiscent of a pre-injury Geno Atkins, Donald dropped to the 14th overall pick only because of his height at 6-1 288. That hasn’t been an issue. He’s got a great future.

  1. S Devin McCourty (New England)

Last year: 35

The Patriots suffered a bunch of losses in the secondary this off-season, but they were able to retail safety Devin McCourty. McCourty was brought back on a 5-year, 47.5 million dollar deal this off-season. That is the 2nd highest average annual salary in the league for a safety, but he was well worth it. McCourty started his career as a cornerback, grading above average in his first 3 years in the league at that position, including 7th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus in 2010 and 8th in 2012 on just 534 snaps.

McCourty played such few snaps at cornerback in 2012 because he moved to safety mid-season, finishing the season 14th among safeties on 564 snaps. His composite grade across both positions would have been 5th among cornerbacks and 4th among safeties. He then followed that up by grading out 1st among safeties in 2013 and 8th in 2014. There’s been some talk that McCourty could be moving back to cornerback this season, with so many losses at the position. That hasn’t been substantiated by anything yet, but it is the Patriots so you never know. I don’t expect him to move back full-time to cornerback, but it would make sense for the Patriots to have him play on the slot in sub packages, because the Patriots’ safety depth is so much better than their cornerback depth, meaning they are much better equipped to play with 3 safeties on the field in sub packages than the traditional 3 cornerbacks.

  1. QB Drew Brees (New Orleans)

Last year: 20

Many see Drew Brees as a declining quarterback, following a 2014 season in which the Saints, with high expectations coming into the season, finished 7-9 and out of the playoffs. However, that’s putting too much value in team wins as an individual quarterback statistic. It’s still a team game and the Saints had the worst defense in the NFL last season, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 76.68% rate. The Saints were also better their record, finishing 11th in rate of moving the chains differential, as their offense finished 2nd in the NFL in rate of moving the chains (only behind Green Bay), moving them at a 79.14% rate. The Saints were just kept down by the usual fluky things that common fans put too much stock into that tend to be very inconsistent on a year-to-year or week-to-week basis, turnover margin (-13), return touchdown margin (-4), fumble recovery rate (37.84%), and record in games decided by a touchdown or less (3-5).

In reality, Brees was the Saints’ best player last season and the biggest reason they had any sort of success, leading a dominant offense. Brees completed 69.2% of his passes for an average of 7.51 YPA, 33 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions and ranked 2nd among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus, only behind MVP Aaron Rodgers. That’s very much in line with what we’ve come to expect from Brees and doesn’t suggest any sort of decline has happened yet. He’s graded out 3rd, 7th, 3rd, 4th, 1st, 4th, 2nd, and 2ndrespectively from 2007-2014 in the 8 years of Pro Football Focus’ history and has completed 67.8% of his passes for an average of 7.71 YPA, 290 touchdowns, and 130 interceptions over that time period.

He’s the only quarterback in the NFL to grade out in the top-4 in each of the last 6 seasons and the top-7 in each of the last 8 seasons. There’s an argument to be made that he’s still the 2nd best quarterback in the NFL. All this isn’t to say that there isn’t some concern Brees that will decline in the future, as he enters his age 36 season, but the common narrative that this decline has already started isn’t based in any sort of fact and we’ve seen plenty of top level quarterbacks still have success into their mid-30s in recent years (Brett Favre, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, etc.). I’m still very high on Brees.

  1. WR Julio Jones (Atlanta)

Last year: 38

Easily the most helpful offensive player for Matt Ryan over the past few seasons has been wide receiver Julio Jones, who is arguably the Falcons’ best player. Jones only played in 5 games with injury in 2013, but caught 41 of 57 targets (71.9%) for 580 yards and 2 touchdowns on 212 routes run, an average of 2.74 yards per route run, best in the NFL. Through the first 5 weeks of the season, before going down with a season ending foot injury, he was Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked wide receiver.

Jones picked up right where he left off in 2014, grading out 6th among wide receivers and catching 104 passes on 156 attempts (66.7%) for 1593 yards and 6 touchdowns on 585 routes run, an average of 2.72 yards per route run, 5th in the NFL. Jones enters the contract year of his rookie deal, his age 26 season, with 278 catches for 4330 yards and 26 touchdowns in 49 career games, coming off of 3 straight strong seasons (15th among wide receivers in 2012 as well). The only issue with him is injuries, as he’s missed 15 games with injury in 4 seasons and has issues with his foot dating back to his collegiate days at the University of Alabama. The Falcons don’t seem concerned, giving their best playmaker a 5-year, 71.25 million dollar extension ahead of his contract year this off-season.

  1. MLB Dont’a Hightower (New England)

Last year: NA

Dont’a Hightower graded out 2nd among middle linebackers on Pro Football Focus in 2014 and he seems like a budding superstar. Hightower also helped with pass rush, adding 8 sacks, 9 hits, and 17 hurries on just 156 blitzes. The 2012 1st round pick graded out 8th and 12th among 4-3 outside linebackers in 2012 and 2013 respectively and then dominated upon moving back to his natural, collegiate position of middle linebacker in 2014. Only going into his age 25 season, Hightower should continue this play into 2015 and beyond and is one of the best middle linebackers in the game.

  1. OT Jason Peters (Philadelphia)

Last year: 49

Left tackle Jason Peters is also getting up there in age, going into his age 33 season, but he’s never graded out below average in Pro Football Focus’ 8 year history and he’s arguably played the best football of his career over the past few seasons. With the exception of a 2012 season lost to a torn Achilles, Peters has graded out in the top-4 among offensive tackles in each of the last 4 seasons, including #1 in 2011 and #1 last season. His age is a concern, but he should have at least two more good seasons left in the tank.

  1. CB Vontae Davis (Indianapolis)

Last year: 74

Cornerback Vontae Davis was the Colts’ 2nd most important player last season, behind Andrew Luck and ahead of TY Hilton. Davis was drafted in the first round by the Dolphins in 2009, but, when Joe Philbin’s coaching staff came in before the 2012 season, they felt he was out of shape, benched him, and put him on the trade block. Even though Davis had graded out above average in each of his first 3 seasons in the league (29th, 13th, and 39th) and even though he was still very young (only going into his age 24 season in 2012), they shipped him to the Colts for a 2nd and a 6th round pick before the 2012 season.

It looked like the Dolphins had won the trade at first, as Davis graded out below average in his first season in Indianapolis and missed 6 games with injury, which seemed to give some truth to the accusations that he was out of shape. However, Davis has developed into one of the top few cornerbacks in the NFL over the past 2 seasons, grading out 4th among cornerbacks in 2013 and 2nd among cornerbacks in 2014. He joins Darrelle Revis as one of two cornerbacks to grade out in the top-4 in each of those 2 seasons.

The Colts signed him to a 4-year, 36 million dollar deal last off-season, risky considering his history of injuries (10 games missed from 2011-2012) and inconsistency, but now that deal looks like a steal after he backed up an incredible 2013 season by doing it again in 2014. He heads into his age 27 season having graded out above average in 5 of 6 seasons in the league and as one of the best defensive players in the game, living up to his first round talent and then some. Still in the prime of his career, I expect nothing less than another dominant season from him again in 2015.

  1. DT Marcell Dareus (Buffalo)

Last year: 67

Dareus has lived up to expectations since going 3rd overall in the 2011 NFL Draft, grading out above average in all 4 seasons, 15th among defensive tackles on Pro Football Focus in 2011, 14th in 2012, 6th in 2013, and a career best 4th in 2014. Only going into his age 26 season in 2015, Dareus should once again have a very dominant season. The 6-3 319 pounder is a rare type of defensive linemen who can play nose tackle in a 3-4 in base packages, but also can rush the passer from the interior in sub packages in any scheme. The only concern with him is that he’s had some off-the-field issues and he’ll miss week 1 of the season with a suspension, which will really hurt them in that game. However, it doesn’t seem like that has affected the team’s opinion of him, as they gave him a deal worth 95.1 million dollars over 6 years with a record (for a non-quarterback) 60 million guaranteed at the end of the off-season.

  1. RB Jamaal Charles (Kansas City)

Last year: 23

The Chiefs’ strong running game was a huge part of why they were able to have some offensive success last season. The Chiefs averaged 4.57 yards per carry last season on 420 carries, 5th in the NFL, despite an offensive line that ranked 19th on Pro Football Focus in run blocking grade. That was largely as a result of Jamaal Charles, who averaged 5.01 yards per carry and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked running back in rushing grade.

Charles did that despite dealing with a variety of nagging injuries. Those injuries only caused him to miss 1 game, but that not only limited his effectiveness running the football, but also limited him to just 206 carries, fewest in a non-injury shortened season since 2009. Backup running back Knile Davis, a 2013 3rd round pick, saw 134 carries and averaged just 3.46 yards per carry, grading out worst at his position on Pro Football Focus. Charles being healthier and being back in that 250+ carry range for the Chiefs will be very helpful this season.

Charles’ career 5.49 yard per carry average is best all time by a running back and he also has 262 catches in 95 career games as well. Excluding an injury shortened 2011 season, Charles has graded out 4th, 1st, 16th, 2nd, and 13th on Pro Football Focus among running backs in 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, and 2014 respectively. Charles is going into his age 29 season with 1511 career touches, but should have at least one more dominant season left in him, which is obviously great news for Chiefs fans.

  1. S Earl Thomas (Seattle)

Last year: 51

A first round pick, Earl Thomas was a starter from the word go and has made 80 of 80 starts in 5 seasons in the league. Thomas has graded out above average in every season he’s been in the league, grading out 30th, 8th, 36th, 10th, and 5th in 2010-2014 respectively. The 5-10 208 pound Thomas played within 8 yards of the line of scrimmage on just 8.1% of snaps in 2014, 3rd least often in the NFL among eligible safeties, making him a great complement for Kam Chancellor (81.3% of snaps, 2nd most in the NFL). Thomas has missed 66 tackles in 5 seasons in the league, but, other than that, he’s great and he’s coming off the best season of his career in 2014.

  1. MLB Bobby Wagner (Seattle)

Last year: 119

Wagner, meanwhile, is a 2012 2nd round pick who has graded out 2nd, 12th, and 5th in 3 seasons in the NFL. Especially impressive about his 2014 season was that he did that despite missing 5 games with injury. If you take out the 5 week stretch where he didn’t play, he ranks 2nd at his position.  In the 5 games he missed, the Seahawks allowed opponents to move the chains at a 72.38% rate, as opposed to 66.45% in the 11 games he played in the regular season. His presence was so noticeable that Tony Dungy actually cast his MVP vote for him because, as he explained, it’s most “valuable.” That’s absurd.

Yes, the Seahawks did really miss him when he was hurt, but basic interference suggests that the Packers would have missed Aaron Rodgers far more if he were hurt or the Texans with JJ Watt. However, Wagner did have a fantastic season. His only real issue is he’s missed 7 games with injury over the past 2 seasons. Ahead of his age 25 contract year in 2015, the Seahawks locked up Wagner on a 4-year, 43 million dollar deal, making him the highest paid middle linebacker other than fellow 2012 draftee Luke Kuechly.

  1. C Jason Kelce (Philadelphia)

Last year: 88

Jason Kelce was Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked center last season despite missing 4 games with injury. A 2011 6th round pick, Kelce was forced into action too quickly as a rookie and graded out 33rd out of 35 eligible centers, but he flashed in 2 starts in 2012 before going down for the season and then graded out 1st in 2013, before backing it up again last season. Only going into his age 28 season, he’s in the prime of his career and one of the best centers in the game. There’s

  1. OLB Jamie Collins (New England)

Last year: NA

Collins only blitzed 85 times last season, but managed to record 4 sacks, 6 hits, and 16 hurries, an outstandingly good performance in that aspect for the collegiate defensive end. Collins isn’t just a good blitzer though, as he’s developed into one of the best overall linebackers in the game, easily making the position switch from college to the pros. He graded out 3rd among middle linebackers on Pro Football Focus last season. With the Patriots moving to a 4-3, Collins will move back outside, where he flashed on 302 snaps as a 2nd round rookie in 2013. He’s technically just a one-year wonder because he’s only been a starter in the league for one year, but, going into his age 26 season, Collins seems like a budding superstar linebacker.

  1. DE Jurrell Casey (Tennessee)

Last year: 50

Jurrell Casey led the way for the Titans with 931 snaps played, epitomizing an every down player. The 2011 3rd round pick has developed into one of the best interior defensive linemen in the NFL and got a well-deserved 4-year, 36 million dollar extension last off-season. Casey spent the first 3 years of his career in a 4-3, grading out 16th, 8th, and 5th among defensive tackles, and then showed his scheme versatility when the Titans switched to a 3-4 last off-season. He graded out 7th among 3-4 defensive ends in 2014, as one of the Titans’ lone bright spots. Only going into his age 26 season, I expect more of the same from him this season, only with a better supporting cast.

  1. OLB Lavonte David (Tampa Bay)

Last year: 14

Lavonte David remains as the three-down 4-3 outside linebacker for the Buccaneers, a role which he plays arguably better than anyone in the NFL, reminiscent of a young Lance Briggs. David, a 2012 2nd round pick, has played 46 of 48 games in 3 seasons in the league, grading out 6th, 2nd, and 7th among 4-3 outside linebackers in 2012, 2013, and 2014 respectively. Only going into his age 25 season in 2015, David is just entering the prime of his career. Ahead of his contract year, the Buccaneers gave him a 5-year, 50.5 million dollar extension this off-season.

  1. S Harrison Smith (Minnesota)

Last year: NA

Smith shook off a sophomore season in 2013 in which he graded out below average and missed 8 games with injury, by playing all 16 games and grading out 2nd among safeties in 2014. He played at an All-Pro level and he’s not a one-year wonder either. His 2013 wasn’t great, but he played all 16 games and ranked 19th at his position in 2012. The Vikings made the no brainer move to pick up his 5th year rookie option this off-season (another benefit of moving up into the first round to grab him) and hope that he continues this kind of top level play into his age 26 season in 2015 and beyond. They’ll try to sign him to a long-term extension over the next calendar year and it could rival or even surpass deals given to Earl Thomas (4 years, 40 million), Devin McCourty (5 years, 48.5 million), and Jairus Byrd (6 years, 54 million). He’s one of the best safeties in the NFL.

  1. OT Joe Staley (San Francisco)

Last year: 26

A remainder of the 49ers’ previously dominant seasons, Staley is just one of 4 players on either side of the ball that are starters now that were also starters in 2011 (Vernon Davis, Ahmad Brooks, and NaVorro Bowman are the other 3). A 2007 1st round pick, Staley has started 114 games over the past 8 seasons, grading out above average in every season except 2010. Since 2012, Staley has graded out 1st, 5th, and 4th among offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus, the only offensive tackle in the league to finish in the top-5 in 3 straight seasons. Even going into his age 31 season, he’s one of the best offensive tackles in the game. He’s the saving grace of a crumbling offensive line.

  1. OLB DeAndre Levy (Detroit)

Last year: NA

DeAndre Levy might be the Lions’ best defensive player now, with Suh gone and Tulloch coming off of an injury. Levy has been a starter since the Lions drafted him in the 3rd round in 2009, making 82 starts in 6 seasons in the league, but he graded out below average in each of his first 4 seasons. The Lions re-signed him two off-seasons ago anyway, bringing him back on a 3-year, 9.75 million dollar deal, and that’s been an absolute steal as Levy has broken to be a late bloomer. He’s graded out 9th and 3rd among 4-3 outside linebackers in the last 2 seasons respectively and is one of the best in the game at his position. Only going into his age 28 season, Levy was given a 5-year, 37.2 million dollar extension this off-season, ahead of the contract year of that aforementioned 3-year deal. It’s not quite the same bargain, but he’s still worth it.

  1. DE Kyle Williams (Buffalo)

Last year: 16

Kyle Williams is older, going into his age 32 season, but he’s very good and has shown no signs of declining. He has graded out above average in every season starting in 2008. His best season came in 2010, when he graded out 1st among defensive tackles, and he’s bounced back well from a serious 2011 injury, grading out 3rd among defensive tackles in 2012, 3rd among 3-4 defensive ends in 2013, and 7th among defensive tackles last season. I expect basically the same thing from the scheme versatile veteran this season, back in a 3-4.

  1. OT Andrew Whitworth (Cincinnati)

Last year: 32

Whitworth played outstanding last season, but that’s nothing new for him. Whitworth has made 94 of 96 starts since 2009 and has graded 12th, 1st, 9th, 9th, 15th, and 2nd among offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus in 2009-2014 respectively. The only season he graded out worse than 12th at his position was 2013, when he made just 9 starts at offensive tackle, as he missed 2 games with injury, and also made 5 starts at guard, where he graded out 7th, despite the limited action there. No one graded out better than him on fewer snaps at either positon and his composite grade would have been 1st among offensive tackles and 3rd among guards. It’s a highly impressive mix of versatility and dominance by a player who is quietly one of the best offensive linemen in the NFL. His age is definitely a concern, but he could easily have another dominant year this year. He’s reportedly not happy the Bengals used their first two draft picks on offensive tackles. Considering how good he is, it seems kind of silly that the Bengals have already given up on his long-term future with the team.

  1. DE Robert Quinn (St. Louis)

Last year: 8

Robert Quinn, a 2011 1st round pick, lived up to his massive potential in 2013. After grading out below average in each of his first 2 seasons in the NFL, the 2011 14th overall pick had the best defensive season in the NFL in 2013, aside from maybe JJ Watt. Quinn graded out as Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked 4-3 defensive end by a wide margin, thanks in large part to his 19 sacks and 21 hits. He couldn’t repeat it in 2014, but few can and, after grading out 10th at his position last season, it’s now clear that Quinn is not a one-year wonder. Only going into his age 25 season, Quinn is one of the best defensive players in the NFL.

  1. RB Eddie Lacy (Green Bay)

Last year: 133

Eddie Lacy has proven to be a great complement for Aaron Rodgers in the backfield. In 2 years in the NFL since the Packers drafted him in the 2nd round in 2013, Lacy has missed just 1 game with injury and rushed for 2317 yards and 20 touchdowns on 530 carries (4.37 YPC), while adding 77 catches for 684 yards and another 4 scores through the air. Certainly, Rodgers’ presence helps Lacy, but Lacy also helps Rodgers and is a fantastic running back in his own right. He graded out 5th among running backs on Pro Football Focus as a rookie in 2013, winning Offensive Rookie of the Year, and then finished 3rd in 2014. He joins Marshawn Lynch as the only running back in the NFL to grade out in the top-5 in each of the last 2 seasons. Only going into his age 25 season at a position where youth is such an asset, Lacy is one of the best running backs in the game.

  1. OLB Brandon Graham (Philadelphia)

Last year: NA

The Eagles re-signed Brandon Graham this off-season on a 4-year, 26 million dollar deal. That should prove to be the right move long-term as Graham could easily break out as one of the top edge rushers in the game in an every down role, which would make him an obvious bargain at 6.5 million annually. Graham is seen as not being able to play in a 3-4, but, while he’s probably better in a 4-3, he’s shown over the past two seasons that he can play in both schemes. After struggling with injuries in the first two seasons of his career, Graham, a 2010 1st round pick, had somewhat of a breakout year in 2012. He didn’t get a ton of playing time (435 snaps), which is why it’s hard to call it a true breakout year, but he still graded out 2nd among 4-3 defensive ends that season, despite the limited playing time.

Moving to a 3-4 in 2013, he only saw 331 snaps, but he still graded out 15th at his position, making it two straight years where no one played fewer snaps than him and graded out better at his position. In 2014, he was still the 3rd outside linebacker, but he set a career high in snaps played with 524 snaps and graded out 3rd among 3-4 outside linebackers. For the third straight year, no one graded out better at his position on fewer snaps. As a 700-800 snap guy, Graham has the potential to break out as one of the best edge rushers in the game. It’s somewhat risky considering he’s never played a significant amount of snaps, but he’s handled everything he’s been given in his career very well and the Eagles aren’t risking a ton of money here. His only weakness is coverage, but he won’t be asked to drop in coverage all that much. This opportunity to be an every down player has been a long time coming and it’s long overdue.

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Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0)

This is the 2nd toughest game of the week for me, behind Indianapolis -3 in Buffalo. The Texans are currently at -1 here at home for the Chiefs, but they’re also a pick ‘em in some places and could move to single point home underdogs before game time, as the public is on the road team. I’m very wary of picking the Chiefs for that reason. I like to fade the public whenever it’s possible because they always lose money in the long run and I especially like to fade the public whenever they’re on the underdog. Whenever the public consensus picks an underdog to win straight up, it usually doesn’t work out. The favorite is favored for a reason.

I realize that the Texans are mere point favorites here, if that, and that the Chiefs could be favorites by game time, but I’d be wary of them as road favorites as well. That would make them one of 9 road favorites in a very weird week to start the season and I’ve already taken a bunch of road favorites, something I hate to do. I only did that because they were small road favorites who just needed to win straight up essentially and who were much better than their opponent overall. That’s not the case here and, while I expect the Chiefs (projected for 8 wins) to win here in Houston over the Texans (projected for 6 wins), it’s hard to say I’m confident in that, especially with the public on the underdog.

Kansas City Chiefs 21 Houston Texans 19 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Kansas City +1

Confidence: None

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Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

Tennessee Titans (0-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0)

These two teams are in very similar situations. Both were awful last season, as both went 2-14. Subsequently, they had the #1 (Tampa Bay) and #2 (Tennessee) overall picks in the draft. Both teams, as so many terrible teams before them have, drafted quarterbacks atop the draft. The Buccaneers took 2013 Heisman winner Jameis Winston #1 overall, while the Titans took 2014 Heisman winner Marcus Mariota #1 overall. Both teams also play in awful divisions and have a very good chance to pick up a handful more wins this season.

Both teams are missing key players. Tampa Bay is missing top offensive lineman DeMar Dotson with injury, while Tennessee is missing top cornerback Jason McCourty and recently traded left guard Andy Levitre, unnecessarily creating a massive hole at that position. However, I’m going to take the Titans as 3 point underdogs here on the road for 3 reasons. For one, they have the better supporting cast and had the better off-season, adding the likes of Perrish Cox, Da’Norris Searcy, and Brian Orakpo in free agency. Tampa Bay added Henry Melton and Bruce Carter. The former is a solid defensive tackle, but Carter has already gotten benched, as his transition to middle linebacker really didn’t go.

For two, Jameis Winston struggled in the pre-season, while Mariota played pretty well. I hate putting a lot of stock in the pre-season, but it’s worth mentioning with these two rookies who will be counted on so much this season. Three, Tampa Bay’s home field advantage has been non-existent in recent years, as they’ve gone 15-34 ATS at home since 2009, including 5-10 ATS as home non-divisional favorites. Even if we assume these teams are equal (which I don’t think is true), this line should be lower than 3. I’m not that confident, but I like Tennessee’s chances to cover the 3 points and to also pull the upset.

Tennessee Titans 20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3

Confidence: Low

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Cleveland Browns at New York Jets: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

Cleveland Browns (0-0) at New York Jets (0-0)

I believe these two teams are similar in their talent level and this line basically does that too, as the home team Jets are favored by 3.5 points. That suggests they’re just a little bit better than the Browns. The problem is that I think it’s the other way around and that the Browns are a little bit better than the Jets, which gives us some line value with the underdog. The Browns have arguably the worst quarterback situation in the NFL with Josh McCown and they have minimal skill position talent around him, but they have an outstanding offensive line and an above average defense and can give teams some trouble. They’re a solid quarterback away from being a playoff caliber team.

The Jets also have their own quarterback problems, with starter Geno Smith out for at least a month with a broken jaw that was suffered in a brawl with his now-ex teammate. As embarrassing as the incident is, Ryan Fitzpatrick, now the starter, is a better quarterback. He’s a 33-year old journeyman, but he’s been a passable quarterback for a few years and is arguably coming off of the best season of his career, though one that was ended prematurely with a broken leg. Still, he’s an upgrade over Smith.

The Jets spent a lot of money fixing up their supporting cast this off-season too, bringing in Brandon Marshall, Darrelle Revis, Antonio Cromartie, and Buster Skrine, all of whom commanded megadeals. Marshall is an upgrade at wide receiver opposite Eric Decker and Revis is still one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL, but Cromartie and Skrine were both overpaid. The team is also without stud defensive end Sheldon Richardson for the first 4 games of the season with a suspension and still has a serious issue at outside linebacker, so their defense isn’t as good as the Browns’ defense. With holes at tight end, guard, and running back, their offense isn’t much better than the Browns’ and their loaded offensive line. I’m not putting money on it, but I like the Browns as 3.5 point underdogs here on the road.

New York Jets 17 Cleveland Browns 16

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +3.5

Confidence: Low

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Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

Carolina Panthers (0-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0)

To start the season, this week has 8 games that feature road favorites (and no game that features a line higher than a touchdown). Almost every single one of those 8 road favorites is heavily backed by the public.  I hate making big plays on road favorites that are heavily backed by the public. Those always scream “trap game” to me. Whenever the public is heavily on a road favorite it’s usually for the wrong reason. That reason is that the lines can seem to be too low because homefield advantage is underestimated, as most people don’t understand that home vs. away is worth about 6 points on average.

Unfortunately, a lot of those road favorites are small road favorites over teams that they’re clearer better, so it’s so tempting to take all of the road favorites. I’m not afraid to do take a road favorite; in fact, my pick of the week is Miami -3.5 in Washington, but that’s fine because Miami is underrated and that’s just too low of a line. However, I didn’t want to pick all as the road favorites. That being said, I already picked a few home underdogs, Chicago +7 at home for Green Bay for a big play because that line was too high, St. Louis +4 at home for Seattle for a no confidence pick for a few minor reasons, and Buffalo +3 at home for Indianapolis for a no confidence pick as a tiebreaker in the toughest game of the week for me.

Teams like Philadelphia (projected for 10 wins) would seem to be an easy choice as mere 3 point favorites on the road over Atlanta (projected for 5 wins). The same is true with Carolina (8 wins) as 3.5 point favorites over Jacksonville (3 wins), Minnesota (9 wins) as 2.5 point favorites over San Francisco (4 wins), and Cincinnati (9 wins) as 3 point favorites over Oakland (3 wins). None of them will be confident plays for me, but I have to take the road favorite in all 4 of those games. Jacksonville is simply not talented enough to be picked as mere 3 point home underdogs here against a good Carolina team.

Carolina Panthers 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 16

Pick against the spread: Carolina -3.5

Confidence: None

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