Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) at Washington Redskins (1-2)

Despite being without running back DeMarco Murray, middle linebacker Mychal Kendricks, middle linebacker Kiko Alonso, and defensive end Cedric Thornton, 4 above average starters, the Eagles were able to upset the Jets in New York as 3.5 point underdogs last week. This week, they get Kendricks and Murray back, but I don’t love the Eagles chances of pulling off another win for a number of reasons, this time in Washington as 3 point favorites.

For one, the Eagles are still banged up. Alonso and Thornton might not have been missed too much last week and Murray and Alonso might be back, but it’s still not good to be missing two talented starters from your defense. You’re not guaranteed to be able to overcome that every week just because you were able to do so one time, as the Eagles did last week. The Eagles were also really reliant on turnovers and a return touchdown last week, things that are hard to rely on every week, winning the turnover battle by 3 and returning a punt for a touchdown in the 7 point win. Teams that have a turnover margin of 3+ have a turnover margin on average of +0.1 the following week. The Redskins have injury issues too, missing wide receiver DeSean Jackson, cornerback DeAngelo Hall, and middle linebacker Perry Riley, and possibly cornerback Chris Culliver, but I still think the Eagles are missing more.

The Eagles are also in a bad spot, as a result of last week’s win, as favorites are just 4-19 ATS since 1989 during week 4 after winning their first game of the season in week 3. Despite that and the fact that they probably aren’t quite deserving of being field goal favorites here in Washington, where the Redskins have played decently this season, the public is still all over the Eagles, as Philadelphia is one of the most heavily bet sides of the week. I like fading the public whenever it makes sense and I think it does here. I wouldn’t put money on the Redskins, unless we were getting 3.5 or 4 points and even then I still maybe wouldn’t, but they should be the right side. The only reason I wouldn’t put money on the Redskins, besides their injuries, is because they have the harder game next week, going to Atlanta, while Philadelphia just hosts the Saints, but it’s still enough to scare me off.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Washington Redskins 23

Pick against the spread: Washington +3

Confidence: Low




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