St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

St. Louis Rams (1-2) at Arizona Cardinals (3-0)

No other team has been as successful in the first 3 weeks of the season as the Arizona Cardinals. Not only do they rank 1st in rate of moving the chains differential, they also rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains and 1st in rate of moving the chains allowed. Of course, they’ve also had arguably the league’s easiest schedule, beating New Orleans (0-3), Chicago (0-3), and San Francisco (1-2), none of whom seem likely to even sniff the post-season. The Rams might be the toughest opponent they’ve had yet and they’ve not very good either, 1-2 and also unlikely to sniff the post-season. I’m curious to see if the Cardinals, who are playing drastically better than they did last season, can keep it up once the schedule gets tougher, but we won’t find out this week.

The Cardinals are only favored by a touchdown here, despite the fact that they’ve won their first 3 games by an average of 25.67 points per game, winning each game by at least 12 points. As a result, the public is all over them, as the Cardinals as the most heavily backed team this week thus far. Typically I like to fade the public on heavy leans because they always lose money in the long run, but they might have the right side in this one. In addition to being significantly inferior to the Cardinals, the Rams are also in a terrible spot with another tough game, a trip to Green Bay, on deck. Teams are just 70-95 ATS since 2010 as 6+ point underdogs before being 6+ point underdogs again and the Rams are expected to be 9 point underdogs next week. Arizona, meanwhile, goes to 0-3 Detroit next. I’m not that confident, but Arizona should be the right side.

Arizona Cardinals 24 St. Louis Rams 13

Pick against the spread: Arizona -7

Confidence: Low

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