Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals: 2015 Week 5 NFL Pick

Seattle Seahawks (2-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (4-0)

Currently, the Bengals are projected to be 1.5 point underdogs in Buffalo next week, according to the early line. The Seahawks, meanwhile, are projected to be 7.5 point favorites at home for Carolina next week.  Favorites are 67-111 ATS since 2010 before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites, so the Bengals are technically in a bad spot this week. On top of that, this line shifted from the Seahawks being favored by 2.5 points to Cincinnati being favored by a field goal in one week and I typically love to fade huge week-to-week line movements because they’re usually the result of overreaction to one week.

All of that being said, I think the Bengals are one of the best teams in the NFL and should be able to win this game at home, which could easily shift that line in Buffalo to favor Cincinnati and nullify that trend.  On top of that, I think that this line movement wasn’t an overreaction to one week, but was more the odds makers correcting themselves. The Bengals definitely didn’t deserve to ever be home underdogs to really anyone and even at a field goal, I think this line is too low.

Seattle is certainly not a bad team, ranking 9th in rate of moving the chains differential, better than their 2-2 record suggests, but the Bengals have played significantly better than the Seahawks this year, ranking 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential, and I think are the better team. That’s not what this line, at 3 in favor of the home team Cincinnati, suggests, but I think the Bengals should be able to win this one by a field goal or more and shift next week’s line, especially with Seattle running back Marshawn Lynch set to miss his 2nd straight week with injury and talented Cincinnati safety George Iloka expected to return from a 1 week absence. I’m not confident in the Bengals, but they should be the right side.

Cincinnati Bengals 23 Seattle Seahawks 17

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -3

Confidence: Low

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