San Diego Chargers (2-3) at Green Bay Packers (5-0)
I write about the Packers’ home dominance every week they play at home and there’s a good reason for that. As long as Aaron Rodgers starts (minus any games he’s been knocked out very early with injuries), the Packers are 30-11-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 38-4 straight up, with an absurd +603 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 14.36 points per game. This is well documented though, so we typically don’t get much line value with them at home, but they’ve still managed to cover 9 of their last 11.
I think they’re going to make it 10 of 12 this week, even though they’re favored by 10.5 points. San Diego is a solid team when they’re healthy, but they’re far from it right now. They’re expected to be without 3 starters on the offensive line for the 3rd straight week, including left tackle King Dunlap and left guard Orlando Franklin, their two best offensive linemen. On top of that, replacement left tackle Chris Hairston is expected to be out, while right guard DJ Fluker has been dealing with an ankle problem all year. They won two weeks ago with a patchwork offensive line, but that was at home against a Cleveland defense that hasn’t really been able to stop anyone this season. They should have won last week against Pittsburgh, but that was more the result of Pittsburgh’s inept quarterback play than anything San Diego’s offensive line did well. Philip Rivers is a good quarterback, but he was under siege all day and that was against a Pittsburgh pass rush that isn’t nearly as good as Green Bay’s.
Green Bay’s offense isn’t quite what it was last season, partially due to injuries in the receiving corps, but they’re still a very good offense and the defense is much improved. They rank “just” 5th in rate of moving the chains differential, but I think they’re still arguably the most talented and most complete team in the NFL. Considering, on average, they win by two touchdowns at home, they should have no problem making this another blowout in Lambeau, especially with a bye week on deck. Teams are 59-19 ATS as 6+ point home favorites going into a bye since 2002, which makes sense, as good teams with no upcoming distractions tend to take care of business. I know it’s boring, but the Packers at home are my Pick of the Week for the 2nd straight week.
Green Bay Packers 34 San Diego Chargers 17
Pick against the spread: Green Bay -10.5
Confidence: Pick of the Week