Month: October 2015

Kansas City Chiefs at Minnesota Vikings: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 6 NFL Picks, Chiefs, NFL Picks, Uncategorized, Vikings

Kansas City Chiefs (1-4) at Minnesota Vikings (2-2)

The Vikings hard a weird start to their season, losing 20-3 week 1 in San Francisco in a really late game, giving the lowly 49ers their only win of the season. However, a team seen as a sneaky playoff contender before the season started, Minnesota has lived up to expectations over the past few weeks, beating Detroit and San Diego by double digits and then only losing by a field goal in Denver. They do rank just 20th in rate of moving the chains differential through their first 4 games, but they’re still being dragged down by what should prove to be a very fluky week 1 game. They’re a solid team that will compete for a playoff spot.

Despite that, they’re just 4 point favorites here over a Kansas City team that ranks 25th in rate of moving the chains differential, despite losing Jamaal Charles for the season to a torn ACL last week. Charles was such a big part of the offense, putting up big yardage on the ground and through the air and really being the guy they ran the offense through, because their passing game is still limited. Chancandrick West and Knile Davis aren’t the type of guys who can do that and represent a huge dropoff in talent behind Charles.

They should struggle to run the ball for the rest of the season, especially with a weak offensive line. They’ll have to pass move often, which is not what they want to do. They have no passing game weapons behind wide receiver Jeremy Maclin and tight end Travis Kelce, Alex Smith is a limited quarterback, and the offensive line isn’t giving Smith much time. The Chiefs are 1-4, getting worse, and won’t be much of a threat to anyone going forward. They shouldn’t be only be 4 point road underdogs in Minnesota, especially with Minnesota having an easy game in Detroit next week, though I can’t quite bring myself to put money on this because Minnesota is a heavy public lean and I don’t have a real trend supporting the Vikings.

Update: This line has dropped to 3.5. I’ll bite.

Minnesota Vikings 21 Kansas City Chiefs 13

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Arizona Cardinals: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 6 NFL Picks, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Steelers, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (4-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2)

The Steelers’ defense has been alright this year, a noticeable improvement over last season, but their offense hasn’t nearly as good. Last year, they ranked 3rd in rate of moving the chains, but barely had anyone miss any time. They haven’t been as fortunate this season. They get wide receiver Martavis Bryant this week for the first time this season, after missing 4 games with suspension and 1 game with injury, but they’re still missing center Maurkice Pouncey and especially missing quarterback Ben Roethlisberger with injuries. The Steelers moved the chains at a 78.65% rate in the first 3 games under Roethlisberger, but a mere 61.40% rate in the last 2 games, despite facing Baltimore and San Diego, two defenses that haven’t exactly been powerhouses thus far this season.

The drop off at quarterback from Ben Roethlisberger to Michael Vick has been close to as big of a drop off at the position as you can get, so bad that Jon Gruden actually suggested that Vick be benched for 3rd string quarterback Landry Jones, who has never even looked good in the pre-season, during last Monday’s night’s telecast, before Vick made some plays down the stretch. This isn’t surprising. Vick remained unsigned late into the off-season after being utterly ineffective in limited action last season, completing 52.9% of his passes for an average of 4.99 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th worst ranked quarterback, despite playing just 281 snaps. No one played fewer snaps than him and graded out worse. The Jets moved the chains at a pathetic 64.44% rate in the games in which he played at least 50% of the snaps, even worse than when Geno Smith played, when they moved them at a 69.18% rate.

The Steelers won in San Diego last week, but they shouldn’t have, considering they moved the chains at a 61.54% rate, as opposed to 72.22% for the Chargers. The Steelers had long touchdown on offense, a pick six by the Steelers’ defense, multiple dropped interceptions by the Chargers, and still only won at the last second. If a couple plays go a little bit differently, the Chargers probably win that game by 10 or more. However, that hasn’t quite caused the Steelers to be completely overvalued by the odds makers and the public like I would have liked, as the odds makers have moved this line from 2.5 in favor of Arizona to 4.5 in favor of Arizona in a week and the public is still all over the Cardinals.

That’s because Arizona is coming off of a resounding 42-17 victory in Detroit last week, certainly an impressive performance, but a final score that was largely aided by a +6 turnover margin. Turnover margins are very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. Teams that have a +6 turnover margin, on average, have a turnover margin of just +0.4 the following week. The Cardinals won’t be able to rely on the turnover margin in this one.

Fortunately, they’ve been a great team aside from turnovers all year. They rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, despite not being one of the NFL’s several remaining undefeated teams. Even in their loss, a 2 point home loss against the Rams, they won the moving the chains battle 71.05% to 66.67% and only lost because they lost the turnover margin by 3. That was a week before they won the turnover battle by 6, a lesson in just how inconsistent something like turnover margin can be on a week-to-week basis. The one knock on Arizona is they haven’t really played anyone (New Orleans, Chicago, San Francisco, St. Louis, Detroit), but Pittsburgh isn’t a very good team with Vick under center, especially considering Vick has covered in just 5 of his last 23 starts, despite last week’s fluky victory. I expect another big win by the Cardinals and I’m still comfortable putting money on them, but I still wish this line was lower.

Arizona is one of six road favorites this week, all six of whom the public really likes and, aside from the Atlanta/New Orleans Thursday Night Game, when I took the Saints and they covered, I’m taking all of the road favorites. I hate doing that, but 3 of them are in their 2nd straight road game (Arizona, New England, Denver) which helps, 2 of them are going into a bye (Denver, Cincinnati), which helps, and Baltimore is mere 2 point favorites over the lowly 49ers, who have a brutally tough home game against the Seahawks on deck. Arizona is the pick here and I hope for a rare, big losing weekend by the sportsbooks.

Arizona Cardinals 23 Pittsburgh Steelers 13

Pick against the spread: Arizona -4.5

Confidence: Medium

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Miami Dolphins at Tennessee Titans: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (1-3) at Tennessee Titans (1-3)

The Dolphins have been a massive disappointment through 4 games, after finishing 10th in rate of moving the chains differential in 2014 and seemingly getting better this off-season. They won in Washington, though only on a punt return touchdown, lost a close one in Jacksonville, who hasn’t beaten anyone else, and then got stomped by both Buffalo and the New York Jets, leading to the dismissal of head coach Joe Philbin, a move that was long overdue. Coming off a bye, with a much needed change at head coach, and with talented left tackle Branden Albert expected back from injury, the Dolphins should be much improved this week and, while they have major holes on the offensive line and in the secondary, they still have a good amount of talent, despite ranking 28th in rate of moving the chains differential.

That might not translate to a win this week though, as the Titans, while also 1-3, are a solid bunch. They blew out Tampa Bay by a score of 42-14, came within 2 points of beating the Colts, came within a point of Buffalo and, while they lost by 14 in Cleveland, the Browns only moved the chains at a 69.57% rate, as opposed to 67.65% for Tennessee. On the season, they rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential. They probably aren’t as good as that suggests, but it’s clear that they aren’t an easy team to beat. One of the worst teams in the league last season, the Titans are drastically improved on both sides of the ball this season and I like their chances of beating the Dolphins by at least 3 points and covering as 2.5 point home favorites here.

The reason I wouldn’t put money on the Titans is because they have to host the Falcons next week, while the Dolphins get to host the Texans. The Dolphins will definitely be favored in that game, while the Titans could easily be home underdogs when Atlanta comes to town, even after Atlanta was delivered their first loss of the season by the Saints on Thursday. If that still happens, it opens up a significant trend. Underdogs are 112-68 ATS since 2010 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, as teams tend to be more focused than their opponent in spots like that. Even if the Titans end up being favored next week, the logic behind the trend still makes sense. Tennessee is my pick, but I’m not that confident.

Tennessee Titans 20 Miami Dolphins 16

Pick against the spread: Tennessee -2.5

Confidence: Low

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Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (5-0) at Cleveland Browns (2-3)

The Broncos are 5-0, but are not a convincing 5-0, playing a schedule that hasn’t been that tough, Baltimore, Kansas City, Detroit, Minnesota, and Oakland and not pretty beating any of those teams with much ease. They rank just 12th in rate of moving the chains differential. Cleveland isn’t that good, but they’re not awful either, ranking 22nd in rate of moving the chains differential. They do have a solid chance to keep this one close and cover as 4.5 point home underdogs here.

However, I do expect the Broncos to be more focused than they’ve been all year in this one, ahead of a bye week.  I mentioned in the Packers/Chargers write up that 6+ point home favorites going into the bye are 59-19 ATS since 2002. The Broncos, unfortunately, are not at home for this one, but 3+ point road favorites are still 38-23 ATS going into a bye, for the same reason. It’s not as powerful of a trend as the other one, but the logic behind both is the same.

The Broncos are without outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware in this one, but they’ll plug in first round pick Shane Ray and the Browns will also be without cornerback Joe Haden and safety Tashaun Gipson. Neither of those two has been playing well, but those injuries definitely hurt their chances of turning their disappointing defense around this week. I’ll be going with the Broncos, but I’m not confident at all. As I mentioned, the Broncos haven’t played that well this season and the Browns could keep this close. On top of that, the Browns are in a good spot off of an overtime win as road underdogs. Teams are 34-23 ATS since 2002 in that spot. This won’t be easy for Denver.

Denver Broncos 19 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against the spread: Denver -4.5

Confidence: None

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New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 6 NFL Picks, Eagles, Giants, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

New York Giants (3-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-3)

The Eagles are favored here by 4.5 on Monday Night Football, pretty reasonable when you consider that the Eagles rank 11th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Giants rank 16th. However, the Giants are in such a great spot here, hosting a weakened Cowboys team in New York next week, while the Eagles have to go to Carolina to face a Panther team that is currently undefeated. The Giants will be favorites and the Eagles will be underdogs, the opposite of what we have here. Underdogs are 112-68 ATS since 2010 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs.

The Giants also typically travel well, at least they have since 2004, the start of the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era. They are 53-42 (45-50 ATS) at home since 2004 (the start of the Eli Manning/Tom Coughlin era), outscoring opponents by an average of 2.64 points per game, as opposed to 54-43 (59-38 ATS) on the road over that time period, outscoring opponents by an average of 0.04 points per game. They are also 12-5 ATS as divisional road favorites of 3.5+ points over that time period.

The Giants are pretty banged up, which is why this isn’t a higher confidence pick, but they’ve dealt with injuries all season and have been fine (as have the Eagles defensively, without middle linebacker Mychal Kendricks and Kiko Alonso). Left tackle William Beatty, defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul, and wide receiver Victor Cruz will all miss their 6th straight week to start the season. Cornerback Prince Amukamara adds to the injury list, as he’ll be out for a few weeks with a pectoral injury, but top pass rusher defensive end Robert Ayers returns from injury. Star wide receiver Odell Beckham hasn’t practiced all week, but is still expected to play on Monday Night, though he could be slowed after aggravating his nagging hamstring problems. I still like getting the 4.5 points with the Giants a lot.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 New York Giants 23

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +4.5

Confidence: Medium

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New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 6 NFL Picks, Colts, NFL Picks, Patriots, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (4-0) at Indianapolis Colts (3-2)

Normally, I love fading huge line movements, I can fade a heavy public lean in the process, as huge line movements are typically because of week-to-week overreactions. This game had one of those line movements, as the Colts have gone from being 5 point underdogs to 9.5 point underdogs in a week and the public is still all over New England. Nothing really happened in the past week that should have caused that. The Colts are coming off of arguably their best game of the season, as they were able to go into Houston and win with a backup quarterback, had 10 days off, and were able to get guys healthy.

Aside from defensive end Arthur Jones, who they haven’t had all season, they’re at full strength right now, after missing guys like cornerback Andrew Luck, cornerback Greg Toler, and cornerback Darius Butler with injury to start the season, while cornerback Vontae Davis and safety Mike Adams have also dealt with injuries. The Patriots, meanwhile, had a great win in Dallas, but that shouldn’t have been a surprise considering they were huge favorites off of a bye and they also lost left tackle Nate Solder for the season and will be without cornerback Tarell Brown in this one.

However, I really have no interest is going against New England in this one. This isn’t as talented of a team as they had last season, particularly in the secondary, but their pass rush is better and they still could be the best team in the NFL. After winning 13 of their last 14 meaningful games to end last season, they are 4-0, ranking 1st in rate of moving the chains differential, to start this season. They’ve also had no problem with Andrew Luck and Chuck Pagano, beating the Colts 4 straight times since those two showed up in Indianapolis in 2012, by an average of 29.00 points per game, though it’s worth noting that the Patriots have only been to Indianapolis once over those 4 games and the Colts are 18-9 ATS at home over that time period.

The Patriots are also in a good spot, as they are 9.5 point favorites over the Jets in New England in the early line for next week. Teams are 75-34 ATS since 2012 as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point favorites since 2012. The Colts also have a game in which they will probably be 6 point favorites on deck, as the Saints come to town next week, and 6+ point underdogs are 69-57 ATS before being 6+ point favorites over that same time period. That’s not as strong as the trend favoring the Patriots though, as favorites tend to do better than underdogs when they have manageable games on deck. It’s worth noting, but I still am taking the Patriots. It’s a no confidence pick though, as the Patriots are a heavily backed large road favorite in a place where it’s tough to win.

New England Patriots 34 Indianapolis Colts 24

Pick against the spread: New England -9.5

Confidence: None

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Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 6 NFL Picks, 49ers, NFL Picks, Ravens, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (1-4) at San Francisco 49ers (1-4)

The Ravens are a shocking 1-4 to start the season, but their 5 games have been decided by a combined 20 points, so they could easily be 2-3, 3-2, 4-1, even 0-5 or 5-0 if a few things had changed. They rank 26th in rate of moving the chains differential, but they ranked 3rd last season, so I still think they’re better their current rank. Sure, they’ve lost Torrey Smith, Pernell McPhee, Terrell Suggs, and Haloti Ngata and cornerback Jimmy Smith hasn’t played well at all in his return from a broken foot, but they still have a good amount of talent, they got left tackle Eugene Monroe back from an extended absence last week and Steve Smith returns this week to a receiving corps that desperately needs him, though wide receiver Breshad Perriman returns out and cornerback Lardarius Webb will join him there this week.

Still, they should be able to beat a San Francisco team that is legitimately bad. San Francisco finished last season 21st in rate of moving the chains differential and then lost head coach Jim Harbaugh, right tackle Anthony Davis, running back Frank Gore, left guard Mike Iupati, defensive end Justin Smith, defensive end Ray McDonald, outside linebacker Aldon Smith, outside linebacker Dan Skuta, middle linebacker Chris Borland, middle linebacker Patrick Willis, cornerback Perrish Cox, and cornerback Chris Culliver this off-season. As a result, they now rank dead last in rate of moving the chains differential and you’d be hard pressed to argue they aren’t one of the least talented teams in the league. They’re easily the easiest team the Ravens have faced. The Ravens almost knocked off Denver and Cincinnati and I still believe they’re good enough to win this game by at least a field goal. This line at 2 seems too low.

It helps the Ravens that the Seahawks are in an awful spot, with Seattle coming to town on Thursday. The early line has them as 6 point home underdogs, which is bad news for their chances this week. Teams are 38-76 ATS since 2012 before being 4+ point home underdogs, 20-50 ATS before being 6+ point home underdogs, and 13-29 ATS before being 7+ point home underdogs. As long as this line is under a field goal, I’m comfortable putting money on Baltimore, even though they’ve burned me in the past.

Baltimore Ravens 20 San Francisco 49ers 13

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -2

Confidence: Medium

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Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 6 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Panthers, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (4-0) at Seattle Seahawks (2-3)

The Seahawks have a well-documented homefield advantage, but I think it’s kind of too well-documented at this point, to the point where the Seahawks always get a ton of extra points at home. As a result, they are just 6-5 ATS in their last 11 home games, after going 15-5 ATS in their first 20 home games in the Russell Wilson era. This particular line here definitely seems to give the Seahawks a ton of respect at home, as they are 7 point favorites here over the 4-0 Panthers.

The Seahawks actually only rank 13th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the undefeated Panthers rank 8th. It’s not quite a fair comparison because the Seahawks have had tough road games in Cincinnati and Green Bay, against two of the best teams in the league, while the Panthers have had a much easier schedule (Jacksonville, Houston, New Orleans without Drew Brees, Tampa Bay), but this line is probably still be too high. Seattle gets running back Marshawn Lynch back from injury, but middle linebacker Luke Kuechly returns for Carolina and the Panthers are in better injury shape coming out of the bye, given that stud middle linebacker Bobby Wagner hasn’t practiced this week with a pectoral injury for Seattle.

The Seahawks are also in a couple bad spots. For one, they’re coming off of a road overtime loss, a tough one in Cincinnati, and teams are 62-93 ATS in that spot since 1989, unless they are road underdogs, which the Seahawks certainly aren’t. They also have to turn around and play a Thursday Night game and teams are 41-65 ATS as favorites before Thursday Night Football since 2008. It helps that their Thursday Night game will be in San Francisco, against a 49er team that is one of the worst in the league.

They are currently 6 point road favorites in that one on the early line. Teams are 108-77 ATS since 2010 before being 4+ point road favorites and 72-47 ATS since 2010 before being 6+ point road favorites. On top of that, 6+ point home favorites are 83-50 ATS before being 6+ point road favorites since 2002. The Panthers have a relatively easy game on deck, hosting the Eagles, but the Seahawks are easily in the better spot from that stand point. If you’re taking Carolina, you’re hoping that the Seahawks can’t handle playing a game in between a dejecting overtime loss and a Thursday Night game, even one in San Francisco against the lowly 49ers, and that the Panthers can handle tougher competition and that, worst case scenario, a touchdown is enough of a buffer. It’s enough for me to take the Panthers, but I’m not confident.

Seattle Seahawks 17 Carolina Panthers 13

Pick against the spread: Carolina +7

Confidence: Low

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Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 6 NFL Picks, Bengals, Bills, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (5-0) at Buffalo Bills (3-2)

Ordinarily, I love fading significant line movements because they’re usually overreactions to one week of action and this line moved from Buffalo being favored by 1.5 to now being home underdogs of a field goal. That’s significant. However, I still like the Bengals this week, even with the public all over them. I think that line movement was legitimate and that it was a bad line in the first place. The 5-0 Bengals are a legitimate top contender, ranking 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential, thanks to significantly improved health on both sides of the ball. The Bills, meanwhile, only rank 20th.

The other reason this line is legitimate is because the Bills are expected to be without Tyrod Taylor, who has been a huge boost to this offense this season, likely  forcing them to go back to EJ Manuel, who has never been good outside of the pre-season and who will be a big downgrade from Taylor. The Bills are getting healthier around the quarterback on offense, with Sammy Watkins and LeSean McCoy coming back, though the latter has struggled with hamstring problems all year and might not be a big boost to a struggling running game. Their only good running back this season has been rookie Karlos Williams, who is once again out with a concussion. The Bills will miss him and Taylor in this one against what I mentioned is an almost completely healthy Bengals team.

It also helps the Bengals that they’re going into a bye and good teams tend to cover pretty easily going into a bye. I mentioned in the Packers/Chargers write up that 6+ point home favorites going into the bye are 59-19 ATS since 2002. The Bengals, unfortunately, are not at home for this one, but 3+ point road favorites are still 38-23 ATS going into a bye, for the same reason. It’s not as powerful of a trend as the other one, but the logic behind both is the same. The Bills, meanwhile, have the opposite of a bye on deck, as they have to pack up and go to London to face the Jaguars. Teams are just 6-16 ATS all-time before an international game. It’s a small sample size, but the trend makes a ton of sense. I’ll leave this as a low confidence pick for now, but when Taylor is officially ruled out (he’s listed as questionable, but no one is buying it), I’ll move it up to medium and put money on it, unless the line moves above 4.

Update: Taylor won’t be playing. I’d put money on Cincinnati -3.

Cincinnati Bengals 20 Buffalo Bills 13

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -3

Confidence: Medium

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Washington Redskins at New York Jets: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 6 NFL Picks, Commanders, Jets, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (2-3) at New York Jets (3-1)

The Jets have been pleasantly surprising to start the season. They beat Cleveland, Indianapolis, and Miami pretty convincingly, though they did lose at home to the Eagles. Still, a 3-1 record with impressive victories is a pleasant surprise for a team that wasn’t expected to do much this season. Ryan Fitzpatrick has bounced back well from a broken leg that ended his 2014 season and has continued his surprisingly solid play from 2013 and 2014 in Tennessee and Houston, giving the Jets arguably the best quarterback they’ve had since Chad Pennington. Wide receivers Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker give him a pair of solid targets to throw to and running back Chris Ivory has broken out as a legitimate feature back. Meanwhile, a veteran offensive line has rolled back the clock a little bit and played very well.

Defensively, new head coach Todd Bowles has improved a defense that was already pretty solid to begin with, in large part due to big contributions from free agent acquisition cornerback Darrelle Revis and first round pick defensive end Leonard Williams. The Jets also get defensive end Sheldon Richardson, one of the best defensive players in the game in 2013 and 2014, back from a 4 game suspension this week, though it’s unclear how they’ll split up playing time between all their talented defensive linemen. Williams has played too well in Richardson’s absence to be a mere backup, but Muhammad Wilkerson is still dominant on the other side, while nose tackle Damon Harrison is equally established inside at nose tackle. It’s a good problem to have, but one the Jets will still have to manage properly. Overall, the Jets rank 4th in rate of moving the chains differential. It’d still be hard to argue that they’re a top-4 team or anything like that, but they’re definitely a playoff contender and it’s clear that they’re here to stay as a threat.

The Redskins, however, have also been equally surprisingly good, but you can’t really tell by their record, as they stand at 2-3. Still, they’ve been St. Louis pretty easily and also beat Philadelphia, while two of their losses were a return touchdown away from being completely different games, including a game in Atlanta last week where they took the then undefeated Falcons to overtime, only to lose on a pick six. A loss in New York to the Giants by 11 on a short week has been their only bad loss to date. Kirk Cousins hasn’t been great or anything, but he’s been serviceable, even with wide receiver DeSean Jackson going down with a severe hamstring injury week 1. Jackson could be back this week, but, just as he’s getting healthy, tight end Jordan Reed, such a big part of their offense with Jackson out, will miss his 2nd straight game with a concussion this week and is out indefinitely. On top of that, stud left tackle Trent Williams has been ruled out for this one.

The defense is where the Redskins have made their biggest improvement, despite starting cornerbacks DeAngelo Hall and Chris Culliver missing time with injury. Both will once again be out this week. New defensive coordinator Joe Barry has done a good job, 2nd year cornerback Bashaud Breeland has been massively improved and been a huge asset with injuries at that position, while the front 7 is dominant, led by budding superstar Ryan Kerrigan, along with talented 2nd year player Trent Murphy, veteran holdovers Jason Hatcher and Chris Baker, and free agent acquisitions Stephen Paea, Terrance Knighton, and Ricky Jean Francois. Despite injuries, they rank 8th in rate of moving the chains allowed, significantly improved from last season. Their defense has been able to cover for a lackluster offense and they rank 9th in rate of moving the chains differential as a result. Like the Jets, it’s hard to argue that they’re actually as good as how they rank in that statistic, but, like the Jets, I think it’s clear that they’re here to stay as a threat.

The Redskins are also in a way better spot, as they have arguably the easiest game of their season, a home game against Tampa Bay, on deck, while the Jets have arguably their toughest game on deck, a trip to New England. The Jets will be rested off of a bye, which helps, but I think we’re going to have two different levels of focus for this game and history supports that theory. Underdogs are 112-68 ATS since 2010 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, while 6+ point favorites like the Jets are here are 48-83 ATS since 2002 before being 6+ point underdogs (the Jets are currently -9.5 in New England in the early line).

The Redskins are “only” 5 point favorites at home for Tampa Bay next week, but that could easily move to 6, while the Jets’ line could easily move to 10. If that happens, that opens up even more powerful trends. Teams are just 51-90 ATS before being 10+ point underdogs since 2010, while that 6 and 6 trend I mentioned earlier works the other way too. Teams are 69-57 ATS since 2002 as 6+ point underdogs before being 6+ point favorites, including 12-5 ATS since 1989 when their opponent will next be 6+ point underdogs. Even if those lines don’t move a little bit, the logic behind those trends still holds. This is one of the worst spots a team can be in.

Some might think it’ll be tough for the Redskins to bounce back off of a road overtime loss, that aforementioned game in Atlanta last week, and ordinarily that would be true, but it really helps that the Redskins are in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 119-85 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 97-58 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 200-207 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.43 points per game, as opposed to 293-404 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.95 points per game. That should nullify any effect of the Redskins’ overtime road loss last week, as teams are 18-17 ATS as road underdogs off of a road loss in overtime since 1989, as long as it’s their 2nd of two road games,.

The Redskins’ injuries caused me to switch this from being my Pick of the Week, but I still think they’re the right side for a high confidence pick. They’re banged up and clearly the less talented of these two teams going into this one, but they’re in by far the better spot and they have a touchdown of buffer room to work with as 7 point underdogs. Especially with the public taking the Jets pretty decisively, I’m confident in the Redskins to cover this week.

New York Jets 20 Washington Redskins 19

Pick against the spread: Washington +7

Confidence: High

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