Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick

Buffalo Bills (5-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-5)

This line was a field goal a week ago on the early line, but has since jumped to 6. Ordinarily, I like to fade significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play, but, in this case, I think the line is just catching up to how good the Chiefs are. They’ve won 4 straight, including huge wins in Denver and San Diego over the past 2 weeks by a combined score of 62-16, following a tough early season schedule that caused them to start 1-5. Of their 5 losses, 4 of them came against Green Bay, Denver, Cincinnati, and Minnesota, all likely playoff teams, and their other loss came by one point against the Bears, a decent team. They rank 8th in rate of moving the chains differential, led by a defense that ranks 9th in rate of moving the chains allowed and that has been a lot better since getting top cornerback Sean Smith back from the suspension that cost him the first 3 games of the season.

The Bills, meanwhile, rank 22nd, so the Chiefs being favored by 6 makes a lot of sense. This line might even be too low, if anything. The Chiefs are banged up, missing defensive end Allen Bailey, guard Ben Grubbs, and possibly running back Charcandrick West, who seems to be a gametime decision. However, so are the Bills, who are missing defensive tackle Kyle Williams, defensive end Mario Williams, and guard John Miller. On top of that, quarterback Tyrod Taylor has a shoulder injury and is less than 100%. It’s tough to pick a side in this one with the line shooting up to 6, but the Chiefs should be the right side.

Kansas City Chiefs 20 Buffalo Bills 13

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -6

Confidence: None

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