Month: November 2015

Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (2-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-0)

The Bengals are one of three remaining 8-0 undefeated teams and rank 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential. The Texans are a solid team, ranking 16th in rate of moving the chains, but this line, at 11 in favor of the Bengals, is pretty fair given the talent levels of these two teams. The Texans will probably be missing outside linebacker Jadeveon Clowney, but Cincinnati right tackle Andre Smith has yet to be cleared with a concussion. Assuming he’s out, those injuries would cancel out, so this line is pretty appropriate.

The Bengals are in a tough spot though, with a trip to Arizona on deck, one of the toughest games of their season and one of the few games the Bengals have in which they will be underdogs. Favorites of 10+ are 54-71 ATS since 2002 before being underdogs the following week. The Texans, meanwhile, host the Jets, a game in which the Texans could be favored, following the Jets’ home loss to the Bills on Thursday Night. Favorites are 96-166 ATS before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites since 2008. Even if the Texans are small underdogs in that one, the logic still holds. The Bengals have an upcoming distraction, while the Texans don’t. Despite that, the public is all over the Bengals. I like fading the public whenever it makes sense and I think it does here. I’m reasonably confident in the Texans.

Cincinnati Bengals 24 Houston Texans 17

Pick against the spread: Houston +11

Confidence: Medium

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6) at Baltimore Ravens (2-6)

The Jaguars rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential at -5.84%. However, they’ve been a lot better since the first 3 weeks of the season. In their past 5 games, they have a differential of -2.92%. What happened? Well, they got a lot healthier. Early in the season, they were missing tight end Julius Thomas, left tackle Luke Joeckel, defensive tackle Sen’Derrick Marks, cornerback Dwayne Gratz, and right guard Brandon Linder. Since then, all of those players, except Linder who is out for the season, have returned. This is a rare instance of a team that has gotten healthier as the season has gone on, as only Linder and possibly linebacker Dan Skuta, are out. That has shown itself on the field.

The Jaguars certainly aren’t a good team, but neither are the Ravens. They ranked 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential in 2014, but this year’s version of this team is a far cry from last year’s version. They lost wide receiver Torrey Smith, outside linebacker Pernell McPhee, and nose tackle Haloti Ngata this off-season. Breshad Perriman, Smith’s replacement, has yet to play this season, while fellow starting wide receiver Steve Smith and outside linebacker Terrell Suggs are out for the season with torn Achilles. They also lost offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak this off-season, which has really hurt their offensive line and running game. As a result, they rank 27th in rate of moving the chains differential at -4.13%. They shouldn’t be favored by 5.5 points here over the Jaguars.

The Ravens are also in a terrible spot. While the Jaguars host the Titans next week, a game in which the Jaguars are expected to be favored, the Ravens host the Rams, who are expected to be road favorites in Baltimore. Favorites are 96-166 ATS before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites since 2008. The Ravens are only 1.5 home underdogs in the early line, so it’s possible they end up being home favorites, but, either way, the logic holds. The Ravens have an upcoming distraction, while the Jaguars don’t.

It also helps that the Jaguars are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 122-87 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 100-59 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 211-214 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.46 points per game, as opposed to 296-419 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.99 points per game. This could easily be a Baltimore field goal win or a Jacksonville win. The Jaguars, as 5.5 point underdogs, are my Pick of the Week.

Baltimore Ravens 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 23

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +5.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (1-7) at Green Bay Packers (6-2)

R-E-L-A-X. If Aaron Rodgers hadn’t said that last year after the Packers lost 2 of 3 games, he definitely would have said it now, after the Packers have lost 2 straight games. Both losses came on the road, against tough opponents, Carolina and Denver. The Packers still rank 9th in rate of moving the chains differential, despite those back-to-back tough road games, and should be able to bounce back at home against a vastly inferior Detroit team. As long as Aaron Rodgers starts (minus any games he’s been knocked out very early with injuries), the Packers are 30-12-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 39-4 straight up, with an absurd +610 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 14.19 points per game. They haven’t had that same kind of success on the road. Rodgers is also 23-11 ATS off of a loss in his career.

This line is pretty high at 11, but the Lions rank 31st in rate of moving the chains differential. If anything, this line is too low in Lambeau. The Packers would probably be favored by two touchdowns if they had a better showing on the road over the past 2 weeks. The public is all over the Packers, which concerns me, as the public always loses money in the long run, but I don’t see this game being very close and I’m pretty confident laying the 11 points.

Green Bay Packers 34 Detroit Lions 17

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -11

Confidence: Medium

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Carolina Panthers at Tennessee Titans: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (8-0) at Tennessee Titans (2-6)

The Panthers got a signature win last week, beating Green Bay 37-29, validating themselves as one of the top teams in the NFL. As a result, the public is all over them as 4.5 point favorites in Tennessee this week. As is usually the case when the public heavily backs one side, I’m going the other way. The public always loses money in the long run, so I like to fade the public whenever it makes sense. I think it does here, as the Panthers could be in for a huge letdown game following that big win. Teams are 61-104 ATS off of a win as home underdogs since 2010, including 15-32 ATS as favorites. Two weeks ago, the Broncos beat the previously undefeated Packers as home underdogs and proceeded to lose straight up as 6 point road favorites in Indianapolis last week. It’s hard to get up for a lesser opponent after such a huge win.

This line is also too high. The Panthers rank 5th in rate of moving the chains differential and have had arguably the toughest schedule of any undefeated team (winning in Seattle, at home for Philadelphia, at home for Indianapolis, and at home for Green Bay), but a trip to Tennessee isn’t a walk in the park, despite Tennessee having just 2 wins. The Titans have moved the chains at a 73.53% rate in the 6 games started by talented rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota and their defense has allowed opponents to move the chains at a 72.20% rate. They’re better than their record.

It hurts the Titans that they’ll be without starting cornerback Jason McCourty in this one, but they’ve had one or both of their starting cornerbacks (Perrish Cox and Jason McCourty) injured in 6 of 8 games this season and have still played decently defensively. On offense, wide receiver Kendall Wright is out, but Mariota was able to light up the Saints without him last week. The Panthers’ obviously have a way better defense than the Saints, but the Titans could still have some offensive success and keep this within 4 points at home. Mariota is playing very well as a rookie, completing 65.5% of his passes for an average of 8.05 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, while leading the Titans to that aforementioned offensive success.

This line is too high and has fallen from 5.5 and even 6 earlier this week, despite the public being all over Carolina, likely as a result of sharp action on Tennessee. I am going to side with the sharps over the public this week, as is usually a good idea. The Titans are not to be overlooked, especially in Tennessee, and the Panthers could easily do that after last week’s huge home win over the Packers. The Titans are also in a good spot off of an overtime win in New Orleans last week. Teams are 57-42 ATS since 1989 off of a road overtime win as underdogs, including 29-18 ATS as underdogs. I like the Titans a good deal.

Carolina Panthers 17 Tennessee Titans 16

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +4.5

Confidence: High

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Buffalo Bills at New York Jets: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (4-4) at New York Jets (5-3)

This line, 2 in favor of the Jets, suggests that the Bills are the slightly better team. I don’t think that’s true. The Jets rank 4th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Bills rank all the way down at 24th. Given that about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, the fact that this line came off of 3, where it was earlier this week, is very intriguing, considering the Jets are the better team. It also doesn’t help the Bills that they’re coming off of a win. Rex Ryan coached teams are just 1-12 straight up off of a win since the start of the 2013 season (5-8 ATS), as Jets fans should know well. Given his personality and the type of coach he is, that makes a lot of sense.

The Jets are also in the better spot, as they head to Houston next week, while the Bills have a much tougher test in New England. While the early line favors the Jets by 3 over the Texans, the Bills are expected to be 10 point underdogs. Teams are 108-82 ATS before being 3+ point road favorites since 2012, while teams are 34-52 ATS before being 10+ point road underdogs over that same time period. The Jets are not guaranteed to be 3+ point favorites next week and the Bills are not guaranteed to be 10+ point underdogs next week, but, either way, the logic holds. The Jets don’t have an upcoming distraction, while the Bills definitely do.

The one thing that worries me is injuries, as the Jets are more banged up than they’ve been all season, missing two key starters from their secondary, safety Calvin Pryor and cornerback Antonio Cromartie. Ryan Fitzpatrick, meanwhile, will play, but is expected to get left thumb surgery tomorrow after the game. It’s his non-throwing hand, so it shouldn’t affect his ability to throw, but it could be problematic when he tries to hand the ball off or protect the ball while being sacked. He could also be knocked out of the game, which would force the Jets to turn to Geno Smith, who is a definite downgrade. Fitzpatrick made it through the game fine last week against Jacksonville, but the Bills should be able to pressure him more than the Jaguars did. Center Nick Mangold does return this week from a neck injury, which should help their offensive line majorly, but he also returned last week, before getting knocked out again.

The Bills, meanwhile, have quarterback Tyrod Taylor, running back Karlos Williams, running back LeSean McCoy, and wide receiver Sammy Watkins all healthy for the 2nd straight week and are only missing wide receiver Percy Harvin and defensive tackle Kyle Williams. Williams’ absence hurts their defense, but this is his 3rd straight missed game and their offense was a lot better last week with the aforementioned quartet healthy. The Jets should still be able to win by at least a field goal in this spot though.

New York Jets 24 Buffalo Bills 17

Pick against the spread: NY Jets -2

Confidence: Medium

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Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (1-6) at New Orleans Saints (4-4)

The Titans get Marcus Mariota back this week after he missed the past 2 weeks with a knee injury. The Titans lost both games without him to fall to 1-6 on the season and moved the chains at a 57.41% rate in those 2 games, as opposed to 72.89% in Mariota’s 5 starts. Mariota has played pretty well as a rookie, completing 64.0% of his passes for an average of 7.70 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, though it’s unclear how well he’ll play in his return from injury, especially without his top wide receiver Kendall Wright, who is out with an injury.

The Titans’ defense has been their better unit this season, ranking 10th in rate of moving the chains allowed, despite missing one of their two starting cornerbacks (Jason McCourty and Perrish Cox) in 5 of 7 games. McCourty is expected to be out this week, though Cox will return. As a result of the Titans’ solid defensive play, the Titans rank 21st in rate of moving the chains differential, despite missing their starting quarterback and best offensive player for 2 games. The Saints, meanwhile, rank 14th. Given that, this line seems a little high at 8 in favor of the Saints at home, despite the fact that the Saints are healthier than the Titans and healthier than they’ve been pretty much all season.

The Titans are also in their 2nd straight road game, which helps. Teams are 121-86 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 99-59 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 208-213 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.50 points per game, as opposed to 296-414 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.97 points per game.

However, they’re also in a bad spot, with a tough game on deck against the undefeated Panthers in Tennessee next week. Teams are 41-80 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 4+, 21-52 ATS before being home underdogs of 6+, and 13-30 ATS before being home underdogs of 7+, over that same time period. If the Titans are underdogs of 6+ next week (very possible), it opens up another trend, as underdogs of 6+ are 40-64 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs of 6+ again.

The Saints also have contrasting stuff on their side. On one hand, they’re at home and they have gone 35-18 ATS at home since 2008, excluding the season Sean Payton wasn’t on the sideline. However, they’re also just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games. Additionally, teams are 28-48 ATS as home favorites off of a win by 1-3 points as favorites, since 2008. The Saints won by a field goal as home favorites against the Giants last week. The Titans seem like the right side as 8 point road underdogs, but there’s not enough here for me to be confident, especially since the Titans just fired their coach. I just don’t know how the Titans will play this week, with their quarterback coming off of a significant injury, their top receiver missing his first game of the season, and the team transitioning to a new head coach without the luxury of a bye week.

New Orleans Saints 24 Tennessee Titans 17

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +8

Confidence: None

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Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5) at New York Jets (4-3)

The Jets were 4-1 and coming off of a 34-20 victory over the Redskins a few weeks ago, but they’ve taken a serious hit since then, losing 2 straight. It’s not as bad as it sounds though, as both losses came on the road against solid or better opponents in New England and Oakland. Their 14 point loss in Oakland last week wasn’t good, but, remember, they were leading the Patriots in the 4th quarter the previous week, before ultimately losing by a touchdown.

Besides, last week’s loss probably would have been a lot closer if Ryan Fitzpatrick hadn’t gotten knocked out early. Fitzpatrick has been solid this season, completing 61.9% of his passes for an average of 7.06 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. He’s not the best quarterback in the world or anything, but he’s significantly better than Geno Smith, who struggled in his absence last week. Fitzpatrick returns this week, though he’s definitely not at 100%, with torn ligaments in his non-throwing thumb that require surgery eventually. It probably won’t affect his throwing ability, but it’s unclear how he’ll play and if it’ll cause him to be fumble prone or mess up hand offs. We don’t even know if he’ll be able to make it through the whole game or if he’ll get knocked out again.

If Fitzpatrick were healthy, I’d put money on the Jets here as 8 point home favorites over the Jaguars. Despite the Jets’ last two weeks, they still rank 4th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Jaguars rank 29th, so we’re definitely getting line value with the Jets. I still think the Jets are the right side though and should win by double digits, though they do have two other things working against them. For one, the Jets are also missing safety Calvin Pryor, while the Jaguars are close to 100%, after having a bunch of early season injuries. Two, the Jets have to turn around and play the Bills on Thursday Night Football next week. Favorites are 42-67 ATS before a Thursday night game since 2008. The Jets are still the pick though.

New York Jets 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 13

Pick against the spread: NY Jets -8

Confidence: Low

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Chicago Bears at San Diego Chargers: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (2-5) at San Diego Chargers (2-6)

These two teams both only have 2 wins, but the Chargers are significantly better. While the Bears rank 26th in rate of moving the chains differential, the Chargers rank 7th. Obviously that seems weird given their record, but they actually lead the league in yards per game and are 2nd in first downs per game, behind the Patriots. Their defense has been a serious problem, as they rank 25th in rate of moving the chains allowed, but their offense has been so good (4th) that they still rank 7th overall.

Their 2-6 record is largely the result of a 2-4 record in games decided by a touchdown, a -6 turnover margin, a -3 return touchdown margin, a -7.4 yards per kickoff return margin, and a -10.5 yards per punt return margin. None of those things suggests anything deeply wrong with this team though, but rather that they have the framework of a good team, but just need to clean some things up. They’ve won the rate of moving the chains battle in 6 of 8 games and could easily be 4-4, 5-3, or even 6-2.They’ve almost won in both Green Bay and Cincinnati. They should be favored by more than 4 here against a Bears team that’s mediocre at best.

That being said, I can’t bring myself to put money on the Chargers for a couple of reasons. The first is that they’re going into a bye. That might sound like a good thing, but it’s not, as counterintuitive as that might seem. Big home favorites (6+) typically do very well before a bye (59-20 ATS since 2002), but, for whatever reason, small home favorites like the Redskins are here do not. Teams who are favored by 1-5.5 points at home going into the bye are just 38-62 ATS over that aforementioned time period, as they tend to get caught looking forward to the bye.

The second reason is injuries, as the Chargers are so unbelievably banged up right now. They’ve had injury problems all year and still have moved the ball better than their opponents, a testament to how well quarterback Philip Rivers has played, but this is as bad as it’s been all year. Wide receiver Keenan Allen, tight end Lardarius Green, left tackle King Dunlap, left guard Orlando Franklin, center Chris Watt, middle linebacker Manti Te’o, middle linebacker Denzel Perryman, and possibly defensive end Corey Liuget are all out for this one. Losing Allen, 3rd in the league in receiving yards, for the season last week is a huge blow. They are likely to get safety Eric Weddle back, who they really missed him over the past 2 weeks, and the Bears are missing running back Matt Forte, wide receiver Eddie Royal, and center Hronnis Grasu, but I can’t be confident in the Chargers with as many injuries as they have.

San Diego Chargers 34 Chicago Bears 27

Pick against the spread: San Diego -4

Confidence: Low

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Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (3-4) at Dallas Cowboys (2-5)

The Eagles are 3 point favorites here in Dallas coming off the bye. Significant road favorites off of a bye tend to do pretty well, as 3+ point road favorites off of the bye are 41-13 ATS since 2002, including 21-5 ATS in a divisional matchup, like this one. However, the Eagles aren’t deserving of being favored by a field goal here. They’re the better team, ranking 11th, as opposed to 20th for the Cowboys, but the difference isn’t enough, considering this line suggests that the Eagles are 6 points better than the Cowboys.

The Eagles aren’t healthy coming out of the bye, missing talented left tackle Jason Peters with a back injury. It’s not all bad on the injury front for the Eagles, as middle linebacker Kiko Alonso is expected to return this week from an extended absence with a knee problem, meaning the Eagles are healthy with the exception of Peters, but Peters will definitely be missed. Matt Tobin will be a significant downgrade.The Cowboys, meanwhile, are only missing Tony Romo.

Obviously, that’s a huge injury still and new quarterback Matt Cassel is a significant downgrade, but the Cowboys are healthy around the quarterback now, which they haven’t been really all season. The offensive line is very good. Their receiving corps is back to full strength, after getting wide receiver Dez Bryant back from injury last week. And their defense has played a lot better in recent weeks since getting defensive end Greg Hardy and middle linebacker Rolando McClain back from suspension. Given that, the Eagles really shouldn’t be field goal favorites here, without Peters, but the public is still all over them. I like to fade the public whenever it makes sense, because they always lose money in the long run, and it makes sense here.

The Cowboys are also in a pair of good spots. For one, they have a relatively easy game in Tampa Bay next week, a game in which they expected to be 1 point road favorites, per the early line. Home underdogs are 72-44 ATS since 2002 before being road favorites. Sure, that line is only one and they could end up being underdogs depending on the outcome of this game, but teams are also 75-51 ATS as home underdogs off of a loss as home underdogs since 2002. The Cowboys lost last week against the Seahawks as home underdogs. I’m not confident at all, but I’m going with the Cowboys.

Philadelphia Eagles 19 Dallas Cowboys 17

Pick against the spread: Dallas +3

Confidence: None

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Oakland Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Oakland Raiders (4-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-4)

This line, Pittsburgh by 5 at home, suggests that the Steelers are measurably better than the Raiders. The Raiders rank 12th in rate of moving the chains, while the Steelers rank 18th, but that’s largely because the Steelers were without Ben Roethlisberger for 4 ½ games. In the 3 games that Roethlisberger has started and finished, the Steelers have moved the chains at a 77.08% rate, as opposed to 65.19% in their other 5 games, so obviously having him back from injury is huge. However, he didn’t look 100% in his first game back last week, so it’s hard to trust that he’s going to be 100% this week.

The Steelers are also really banged up on offense around him, missing left tackle Kelvin Beachum and running back Le’Veon Bell for the year and center Maurkice Pouncey indefinitely. All 3 of those players were huge parts of their dominant offense last season, an offense that sustained next to no injuries, which obviously hasn’t been the case this season. Their young defense has been better this year, ranking 13th in rate of moving the chains allowed, after ranking 25th last season, but it’s hard to trust that their offense is going to play well this week.

The Raiders, meanwhile, have had next to no injuries this season, though they did lose talented defensive lineman Justin Tuck for the season a few weeks back. Their defense hasn’t been measurably worse in the 2 games since, but they definitely do miss him, at least somewhat. They’re also in a bad spot, following a home upset win over the Jets last week, as teams are 59-103 ATS off of a win as home underdogs since 2010. For that reason, I’m taking the Steelers, but I’m not confident at all.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Oakland Raiders 20

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh -5

Confidence: None

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