Green Bay Packers (7-4) at Detroit Lions (4-7)
After an impressive 6-0 start, the Packers have lost 4 of their last 5 games, including two straight home losses, to the Chicago Bears last week and to these Detroit Lions three weeks ago. The line has really adjusted in the last week, as Green Bay, who was favored by 6 points on the early line last week, is now favored by just 3 points. I love fading significant week-to-week line movements, as they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play. Aaron Rodgers is also 23-12 ATS off of a loss in his career.
However, as much as I love fading significant week-to-week line movements and as much as I love taking a quarterback like Rodgers off of a loss, I can’t take the Packers this week, even as mere 3 point favorites. I don’t think the line movement is an overreaction, as much as it is a correction. The Packers’ offense hasn’t been the same all season, since losing Jordy Nelson to a torn ACL in the pre-season, and, while their defense was covering for them early in the year, it’s regressed back to normal over the past few weeks, hence the 1-4 stretch.
The Packers certainly are not a bad team, ranking 9th in rate of moving the chains differential, but they’re not good enough to be favored here by a field goal, as Detroit ranks 25th in that statistic. That might sound like a big difference, but most of the league is bunched up in the middle this year. Green Bay is closer to 25th than they are to 4th. I can’t have any sort of confidence in the Lions either, without getting a couple more points, but they should be the right side, especially since the public is all over Green Bay. The public always loses money in the long run, so I like to fade them whenever it makes sense. It’s a no confidence pick of Detroit to start week 13.
Green Bay Packers 24 Detroit Lions 23
Pick against the spread: Detroit +3