New York Jets (6-5) at New York Giants (5-6)
This is technically a home game for the Giants, but considering they’re playing the Jets, with whom they share a stadium, it’s tough to consider this a true home game. The Giants’ season ticket holders will be there and the Giants will have control of the stadium (telling the fans to get loud and be quiet at the appropriate times), but there should also be plenty of Jets fans in the crowd and the Jets are probably going to be pretty comfortable waking up in their own beds and going to play a “road game” in MetLife Stadium.
I went back into the history of this matchup to see if the home team does noticeably better than the road team. Unfortunately, it’s a small sample size, as this is just the 7th time these teams have met since 1989. The road team is 2-4, getting outscored by 1.67 points per game, but the Giants have pretty much always dominated this matchup, winning 5 of 6 by an average of 7.50 points per game. That doesn’t really tell us much so I’m going to conservatively give the Giants one point for homefield advantage. The Giants have never had much of a homefield advantage anyway in the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era (since 2004), going 54-43 (47-50 ATS) at home, outscoring opponents by 2.65 points per game, as opposed to 55-46 (60-40 ATS) on the road, getting outscored by 0.11 points per game.
While the Giants have traditionally dominated this matchup, the Jets are the better team right now. They rank 5th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Giants are all the way down in 24th. The Jets have outscored their opponents by 44 points on the season, with a +4 turnover margin, while the Giants have only managed +14 with a +10 turnover margin. It’s so tough to rely on winning the turnover margin every week, so I favor a team like the Jets over a team like the Giants by a lot.
The Jets are missing cornerback Darrelle Revis with a concussion for the 2nd straight week, but their offense was so much better last week with center Nick Mangold back and that can’t be ignored. Given that the Giants are only getting 1 point for homefield advantage, this line is way too low at 2. Anything up to a field goal is good value with the Jets, but about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, so I wouldn’t venture beyond 3 with the Jets with any sort of confidence, in case this line starts to climb. I like them at 2 though.
New York Jets 23 New York Giants 17
Pick against the spread: NY Jets -2