Month: December 2015

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 15 NFL Picks, Colts, NFL Picks, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (6-7) at Indianapolis Colts (6-7)

The Colts lost 51-16 in Jacksonville last week, but the good news is that teams are 51-27 ATS since 2002 off of a loss of 35+ points. It’s counter-intuitive, but it makes sense, as teams tend to be embarrassed, overlooked, and undervalued in that spot. The Colts lost by 35 the week prior as well, in Pittsburgh, and that didn’t help them last week, but that’s just one data point against a trend that’s historically been successful and that makes logical sense. Besides, teams that have lost back-to-back games by at least 21 points are 44-27 ATS over that same time period, for the same reasons.

The Colts also historically cover at home, against divisional opponents, and against sub-.500 opponents, in the Chuck Pagano era, dating back to 2012. They are 21-10 ATS at home, 18-7 ATS against sub-.500 opponents (week 4 or later), and 16-6 ATS against divisional opponents over that time period. Combining all three, they are 5-2 ATS at home, against sub-.500 divisional opponents in week 4 or later, since 2012. The Texans fit all three criteria.

The Texans are the better team, ranking 11th in rate of moving the chains differential, as opposed to 23rd for the Colts, but much of the league is bunched up in the middle and the Texans are actually closer to 23rd than 6th, so the difference isn’t as big as it seems. Besides, the Texans are missing starting quarterback Brian Hoyer, while stud defensive lineman JJ Watt is playing through a broken hand, which seemed to limit him against New England last week. As long as this line stays under 3, I’m taking the Colts. I wouldn’t put money on it though, because the Texans are in a good spot too. Divisional road underdogs are 55-31 ATS in a same season regular season rematch against a team they previously lost to as divisional home favorites, since 2002. Revenge is far from uncommon in divisional matchups similar to this one and the Colts beat the Texans in Houston earlier this year.

Indianapolis Colts 16 Houston Texans 13

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -1

Confidence: Low

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Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 15 NFL Picks, Falcons, Jaguars, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (6-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (5-8)

This line was even a week ago on the early line, but the Jaguars have since become field goal favorites, a significant line movement, considering about 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less. I love fading significant line movements whenever it makes sense because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play. The line movement isn’t a surprise, considering the Falcons got clobbered in Carolina last week, 38-0, but the Panthers are arguably the best team in the NFL, far better than the Jaguars. Plus, teams are 51-27 ATS since 2002 off of a loss of 35+ points. It’s counter-intuitive, but it makes sense, as teams tend to be embarrassed, overlooked, and undervalued in that spot. The Falcons could easily be all 3.

The Jaguars are coming off of a huge victory, 51-16 over the Colts, also a big part of the reason why the line moved, but they still rank just 27th in rate of moving the chains differential, as opposed to 17th for the Falcons, suggesting this line is too low at 3, especially with the Jaguars missing running back TJ Yeldon and defensive lineman Ryan Davis. The reason this isn’t a bigger play is because the Falcons have to turn around and play the Panthers again next week, this time at home, a game in which the early line has them as 6.5 point home underdogs. Teams are 23-56 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 6+. Atlanta’s the pick though.

Jacksonville Jaguars 24 Atlanta Falcons 23

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +3

Confidence: Low

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Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 15 NFL Picks, Chiefs, NFL Picks, Ravens, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (8-5) at Baltimore Ravens (5-8)

This has been the season from hell for the Ravens. After going 11-5, winning a playoff game, and finishing the season 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential a year ago, the Ravens lost outside linebacker Pernell McPhee, defensive tackle Haloti Ngata, wide receiver Torrey Smith, and offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak this off-season. And then during the season, they’ve lost 1st round pick wide receiver (and Torrey Smith replacement) Breshad Perriman, wide receiver Steve Smith, outside linebacker Terrell Suggs, center Jeremy Zuttah, offensive tackle Eugene Monroe, quarterback Joe Flacco, and running back Justin Forsett for the season with injury.

As a result, they are 5-8, rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential, and are even less talented than that suggests. In the 3 games since losing Flacco and Forsett, they’ve moved the chains at a 64.77% rate, as opposed to 68.95% in their previous 10 games. Matt Schaub will start for the Ravens this week, after a one week absence with his own injury. He’ll be an upgrade over Jimmy Clausen, who started last week, but not by much and talented tight end Crockett Gillmore now could be out for the season with a back injury. Even if he’s not, he’ll miss his 2nd straight game with injury this week, leaving Schaub with little talent around him on offense, not exactly a recipe for success. The Ravens’ defense is capable, but this is arguably the least talented offense in the NFL right now.

Still, this line does seem high at 6.5, in favor of the visiting Chiefs. The Chiefs rank 10th in rate of moving the chains differential and are missing their top defensive player, Justin Houston, with injury. 2014 1st round pick Dee Ford has played well over the past 2 games in his absence, but Houston is borderline impossible to replace so his absence is definitely still notable. The Ravens are also in a solid spot, as teams are 76-52 ATS as home underdogs off of a home loss, since 2002.

However, the Chiefs are in a great spot, hosting the lowly Browns next week, against whom they’re expected to be favored by 11.5 points, while the Ravens host the Steelers. Teams are 92-65 ATS since 2012 as road favorites before being favored again, if their opponent will be underdogs again the following week. All other road favorites are 71-95 ATS over that time period. Going further, favorites of 6+ are 81-43 ATS before being favored by 6+ points again, since 2012, as superior teams tend to take care of business and win big when they don’t have an upcoming distraction. I could go either way on this one, but I’ll take the Chiefs as long as the line is under a touchdown.

Kansas City Chiefs 17 Baltimore Ravens 10

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -6.5

Confidence: None

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Cincinnati Bengals at San Francisco 49ers: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 15 NFL Picks, 49ers, Bengals, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (10-3) at San Francisco 49ers (4-9)

The 49ers are the worst team in rate of moving the chains differential by a mile, coming in at -11.92%, while no one else is worse than -7.14%. That was on display last week, as they lost 24-10 in Cleveland, against a terrible Browns team. The Bengals, meanwhile, rank 4th, but they’re also been remarkably injury free this season. Now they’re missing quarterback Andy Dalton, tight end Tyler Eifert, and safety George Iloka, three key players. The biggest injury is Dalton’s, as he was playing at a high level, the best football of his career, and backup AJ McCarron is a 2014 6th round pick who has never made a start and who struggled in relief of Dalton last week against the Steelers.

That being said, McCarron could definitely be better now with a full week of practice with the first team to prepare, against a much easier defense. The Bengals are still favored by 6 points on the road, as the line shifted just 1 point in the past week to compensate for the injuries, largely because of the 49ers’ embarrassing performance in Cleveland. We’re not getting a ton of line value with the Bengals, as a result of that, but I don’t have a problem laying 6 points with the Bengals. McCarron has a great supporting cast still and the 49ers are awful. The 49ers are also in a tough spot, as the early line has them as 7 point underdogs in Detroit next week. Teams are 42-67 ATS as 6+ point underdogs before being 6+ point underdogs again, since 2012. I’m not going to put money on the Bengals, because it’s really hard to trust a first time starting quarterback, because the public is all over the Bengals, and because the 49ers have been decent at home this season (4-2 ATS), but they should be the right side.

Cincinnati Bengals 17 San Francisco 49ers 9

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -6

Confidence: Low

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Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 15 NFL Picks, Bears, NFL Picks, Uncategorized, Vikings

Chicago Bears (5-8) at Minnesota Vikings (8-5)

This line is way too high at 6. The Vikings are 8-5, but they’ve lost 3 of their last 4 because of a tougher schedule, including two losses by 17 or more, and they rank 16th in rate of moving the chains differential. The Bears are only 5-8, but they rank 13th in rate of moving the chains differential, as 5 of their losses have come by 6 or fewer, relevant, considering this line is at 6. In fact, excluding the two games Jay Cutler missed with injury, the Bears’ biggest loss came by 8, week 1 against the Packers.

In the 11 games Cutler has been healthy, they’ve moved the chains at a 72.03% rate, as opposed to 56.25% in the other 2 games. Granted, those two games Cutler missed were against Seattle and Arizona, arguably the two toughest defenses they’ve faced, so they probably wouldn’t have had much success either way, but this is just the Bears’ 7th game with Jay Cutler, Matt Forte, and Alshon Jeffery all healthy so they are probably more talented than their 13th place rank in rate of moving the chains differential suggests. Outside linebacker Pernell McPhee is also expected back, after missing last week.

The Vikings get defensive tackle Linval Joseph back from injury this week, which is significant, but they’re still in a worse injury situation than they have been for most of the year, as outside linebacker Anthony Barr and safety Harrison Smith, two of their best defensive players, remain out. They’re less talented than their 16th place rank in rate of moving the chains differential suggests. The Bears, I think, are the better of these two teams right now and yet we’re getting 6 points with them on the road.

The Vikings are also in a bad spot, as divisional home favorites with winning percentages of 50%-67% are 65-95 ATS in weeks 15-17. It’s a weird one, but it does make sense that teams competing for a playoff spot would choke against divisional opponents late in the year. The Vikings are in a good spot too though, as they host the Giants next week, while the Bears go to Tampa Bay. Favorites are 86-63 ATS before being favored again when their opponent will next be underdogs, since 2014. I still like the Bears’ chances of keeping this one close a good amount though.

Minnesota Vikings 17 Chicago Bears 16

Pick against the spread: Chicago +6

Confidence: Medium

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Buffalo Bills at Washington Redskins: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 15 NFL Picks, Bills, Commanders, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (6-7) at Washington Redskins (6-7)

The Bills are in a good spot here this week, hosting the Cowboys next week, while the Redskins have a key divisional matchup in Philadelphia, which could decide the division. All games are important for the Redskins going forward, as they’re currently locked in a 3-way tie atop the division, but next week’s game is even more important because a win isn’t just a win for them, it’s also a loss for the Eagles and it wins the Redskins the tiebreaker between them and the Eagles, because they’ll own the season series. Teams are 92-65 ATS since 2012 as road favorites (the Bills are favored by 2 in Washington this week) before being favored again, if their opponent will be underdogs again the following week. All other road favorites are 71-95 ATS over that time period.

However, the Bills do not deserve to be 2 point road favorites here in Washington. This line doesn’t make any sense. These teams rank 19th (Washington) and 20th (Buffalo) in rate of moving the chains differential, so they’re comparably talented, and the Bills are more banged up, missing tight end Charles Clay, middle linebacker Nigel Bradham, and cornerback Stephon Gilmore, while the Redskins are relatively healthy. The Redskins should be favored by 3 points, if not 3.5, here at home and yet they’re underdogs. That’s not enough for me to put money on the Redskins, but they’re my pick here and if this line moves up to a field goal, I’d consider bumping this pick up to a higher confidence bracket.

Update: The line has moved up to 3. I’m moving this up to medium. There’s no reason a banged up Bills team should be favored by a touchdown in Washington.

Washington Redskins 20 Buffalo Bills 17 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Washington +3

Confidence: Low

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Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (10-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5)

The Steelers are on fire right now. They’ve been fantastic since Ben Roethlisberger came back from injury. They lost to Cincinnati and Seattle, but both of those games were close and both of those opponents are very tough. They also beat Cincinnati in the rematch last week (though they were definitely helped by Andy Dalton and Tyler Eifert going down with injury), beat Oakland, and blew out the Colts (45-10) and Browns (30-9).

Prior to Roethlisberger going down, they lost in New England (another close loss to a tough opponent), blew out the 49ers (43-18) and beat the Rams. In the 9 games Roethlisberger has played, the Steelers have moved the chains at a 75.83% rate, as opposed to 63.64% in the 4 games he missed. When he’s healthy, this is one of the better offenses in the NFL and their defense is better than it was last season. They rank 9th in rate of moving the chains differential and are even more talented than that suggests.

I’d go as far as to argue they’re a top-5 team (remember, they were leading the Bengals in Cincinnati even before Dalton and Eifert went down), but this line is out of control. The Steelers, favored by 4.5 last week in the early line, are now favored by a whole touchdown. I love fading significant line movements whenever it makes sense and I think it does here. The Broncos are a good team as well, ranking 8th in rate of moving the chains differential, so we’re getting line value with them.

The Broncos did lose at home to the Raiders last week and I feel like a lot of the line movement was because of that loss, but the Broncos held the Raiders to negative yardage in the first half and 8 first downs in the whole game (as opposed to 10 punts) and won the rate of moving the chains differential 57.12% to 47.64%. The Broncos lost by a field goal because they turned it over twice (while the Raiders didn’t) and fumbled in their own end zone (for a safety). They’ll be fine going forward.

They’re also healthier this week. Middle linebacker Danny Trevathan will return from a 1 game absence and outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware is in his 2nd game back, after missing 5 games. The Broncos have a great defense, one capable of slowing down the Steelers’ offense more than arguably any other team because they have great cornerbacks who can match up with the Steelers’ talented wide receivers. I’m not too confident in the Broncos, but they should be the right side.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Denver Broncos 13

Pick against the spread: Denver +7

Confidence: Low

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Carolina Panthers at New York Giants: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 15 NFL Picks, Giants, NFL Picks, Panthers, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (13-0) at New York Giants (6-7)

The Panthers are 13-0, but don’t expect them to take their foot off their gas, at least not this week and, if their rhetoric is to be believed, not at any point. This week, they can clinch a first round bye with a win and the #1 seed with a win and an Arizona loss. They’re missing running back Jonathan Stewart, but that shouldn’t be the end of the world. They rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Giants are all the way down in 18th.

The Giants are 3-6 in games decided by a touchdown or less, have 5 losses by 4 points or fewer, and have a +18 point differential, despite a 6-7 record. However, their turnover margin on the season is +10 and there’s almost no correlation between a team’s turnover margin one week and its turnover margin the next week. You just can’t rely on that every week. The Panthers are also arguably the toughest opponent they’ve faced all season, so this line is too low at 4.

The Panthers are also in a great spot. While the Giants have to turn around and play in Minnesota next week, another tough game, the Panthers go to Atlanta to play the Falcons, who they just clobbered last week and against whom they’re projected to be 6.5 point favorites, according to the early line. Teams are 92-65 ATS since 2012 as road favorites before being favored again if their opponent will be underdogs next week. All other road favorites are 71-95 ATS over that time period.

On top of that, teams are 46-31 ATS since 2012 before being 6+ point road favorites. There’s an argument to be made that the Panthers should be favored by 6 or more here and favorites of 6+ are 81-43 ATS before being favored by 6+ points again, since 2012. The Panthers don’t fit that trend, but the logic applies. Superior teams tend to take care of business and win big when they don’t have an upcoming distraction. The Panthers should win this by at least a touchdown and continue their undefeated season.

Carolina Panthers 23 New York Giants 13

Pick against the spread: Carolina -4

Confidence: Medium

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Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 15 NFL Picks, Chargers, Dolphins, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (5-8) at San Diego Chargers (3-10)

The Chargers are just 3-10, one of the worst records in the NFL, but rank 14th in rate of moving the chains differential. How can that be? Well, their record is largely the result of a 3-6 record in games decided by a touchdown (3-7 in games decided by 8 points or fewer), a -7 turnover margin, a -5 return touchdown margin, a -7.5 yards per kickoff return margin, and a -3.1 net punt margin. On the season, they’ve actually outgained their opponents.

None of those things suggests anything deeply wrong with this team, but rather that they have the framework of a decent team and just need to clean some things up. They’ve won the rate of moving the chains battle in 7 of 13 games and could easily be 6-7 or 7-6. This team reminds me a lot of the 2012 Lions, who went 4-12 that season, but then 7-9 the following year and 11-5 two years later, with essentially the same framework of the team. Miami, meanwhile, ranks all the way down at 30th, worse than their 5-8 record.

That doesn’t mean I’m taking the Chargers as 2 point home favorites though. I’ve been picking the Chargers against the spread pretty religiously in recent weeks, but I’ve learned my lesson about taking them at home, where they are 1-6 ATS this season. The Chargers have had basically no homefield advantage this season. They seem to have no fans in San Diego, so their stadium has been overrun with visiting fans pretty much every game this year, meaning they essentially have to play 16 road games this season.

I feel bad for the few Chargers fans who do show up because they’re going to lose their team, but the Chargers have a borderline obligation to move up to Los Angeles at this point. It’s not fair to the team to not have any true home games and it also really hurts their chances of signing key free agents, as nice as San Diego weather is. The Chargers are 4-2 ATS on the road this season and one of those non-covers was a 5 point loss early in the season as 3 point underdogs against the Bengals, who turned out to be one of the best teams in the NFL, but it’s really tough to be confident in them in San Diego.

The Chargers are also in a terrible spot. Not only do they have to play again in 4 days in Oakland (favorites are 47-71 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football), but they will be underdogs in that game, while the Dolphins host the Colts on normal rest, a game in which they’re expected to be favored. Teams are 101-169 ATS since 2008 as favorites before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites. The Chargers are better than the Dolphins, so I’d need at least a field goal to even think about putting money on the Dolphins, but they’re my pick here.

Update: I’m flipping on this one. This is probably the Chargers’ last home game in San Diego, so the fans might actually show up. It’s still a no confidence pick though.

San Diego Chargers 23 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against the spread: San Diego -2.5

Confidence: None

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Cleveland Browns at Seattle Seahawks: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 15 NFL Picks, Browns, NFL Picks, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (3-10) at Seattle Seahawks (8-5)

The Seahawks’ home dominance is well documented. Since 2007, they are 54-23 at home (outscoring opponents by an average of 7.77 points per game), as opposed to 31-45 on the road (getting outscored by an average of 1.72 points per game). However, their home dominance might be too well documented, to the point where it gets priced into the line. After going 15-5 ATS in their first 20 home games in the Russell Wilson era (since 2012), the Seahawks are just 8-7 ATS at home since.

This line is really high at 15, but I don’t think it’s too high. If anything, it might be too low, so we’re not really paying too much of a premium for their homefield advantage this time. The Seahawks rank 5th in rate of moving the chains differential and are great at home, while the Browns rank 28th in that metric. The Seahawks are also hot right now, winners of 6 of their last 7 games, including 4 straight, after a 4-5 start in which they lost to Green Bay, Carolina, St. Louis, Cincinnati, and Arizona, all by 10 or fewer points.

The Seahawks are so well run that they always seem to get hot right around this time. They are 25-6 ATS in the last 8 games of the regular season since 2011, the start of the Pete Carroll era. Losing running back Thomas Rawls for the season last week hurts, but the Browns also lost one of their top offensive linemen, left guard Joel Bitonio, for the season a few weeks back, which also hurts. Rookie Cameron Erving has been horrible in his absence.

The Seahawks are also in a great spot. They host the Rams next week, against whom they’re favored by 14 points in the early line, which definitely is not an upcoming distraction. Favorites of 6+ are 81-43 ATS before being favored by 6+ points again, since 2012, as superior teams tend to take care of business and win big when they don’t have an upcoming distraction. On the flip side, the Browns have to go to Kansas City, where the early line has them as 11.5 point underdogs. As a result, it might be tough for them to be focused enough to keep it close against a drastically superior team, at home, that doesn’t have an upcoming distraction.

Flipping that aforementioned trend, teams are 42-67 ATS as 6+ point underdogs before being 6+ point underdogs again, since 2012. Combining the two, favorites of 6+ are 26-5 ATS since 2012 before being favorites of 6+ again, when their opponent will next be 6+ point underdogs again. Going even further, favorites of 10+ are 21-7 ATS since 1989 before being favorites of 10+ again, when their opponent will next be 10+ point underdogs again. This line is high, but I have no problem laying all these points. This one won’t be close.

Seattle Seahawks 30 Cleveland Browns 6

Pick against the spread: Seattle -15

Confidence: High

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