Month: December 2015

Green Bay Packers at Oakland Raiders: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (9-4) at Oakland Raiders (6-7)

The public is all over the Packers this week, as 3.5 point favorites in Oakland. That’s not a surprise. Betting that the Packers will beat the Raiders by 4 or more points must seem like free money to a lot of people. I’m going the other way though. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense, because the public always loses money in the long run, and in this one, it definitely makes sense. The Packers rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential, but the Raiders rank 12th. That suggests this line should be around even. Instead, we’re getting 3.5 points with the Raiders, which is huge, considering about 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less.

The Raiders are also in a way better spot. While the Packers go to Arizona next week, for arguably the toughest game of their season, the Raiders host the Chargers, which is arguably their easiest game of the season. Teams are 101-169 ATS since 2008 as favorites before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites, including 11-23 ATS over that time period as road favorites. The Packers could definitely overlook the Raiders this week with such a tough game on deck, while the Raiders are highly unlikely to overlook the Packers. I like the Raiders to win outright, so I’ll take the 3.5 points in a heartbeat for my Pick of the Week.

Oakland Raiders 23 Green Bay Packers 20 Upset Pick +155

Pick against the spread: Oakland+3.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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New York Jets at Dallas Cowboys: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (4-9) at New York Jets (8-5)

The Jets are favored by 4 points here in Dallas, but I think that’s too low. The Jets are sneakily one of the better teams in the NFL. They rank 6th in rate of moving the chains differential and, now with center Nick Mangold and cornerback Darrelle Revis back from their respective absences, they’re playing arguably their best football of the season. They’ll be a threat in the playoffs if they make it in as a wild card (Pittsburgh and Kansas City are also 8-5, are also playing well, and have arguably easier schedules) and they’re certainly going to be tough for the Cowboys this week.

The Cowboys rank 25th in rate of moving the chains differential and have unsurprisingly moved the chains at a noticeably worse rate with Tony Romo out of the lineup. In those 4 starts, they moved the chains at a 72.80% rate, as opposed to 67.29% in their other 9 games. They’re also missing middle linebacker Rolando McClain with a concussion, which is a big loss for their defense. That being said, the Jets are in a tough spot, having to turn around and host the Patriots next week, in the biggest home game of the season.

This could be a look-ahead spot and, understandably, teams are 50-67 ATS as road favorites before being home underdogs since 2002, and 29-49 ATS since 1989 as 3+ point road favorites before being 3+ point home underdogs. I would have liked the Jets more if this line had stayed at 3, like it was on the early line last week, as about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. The public is still all over the Jets, despite the movement. I love fading significant line movements whenever it makes sense because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play and I love fading the public whenever it makes sense because the public always loses money in the long run. I could do both by taking the Cowboys, but the Jets are too good, so they are the pick, though for a no confidence play.

New York Jets 16 Dallas Cowboys 10

Pick against the spread: NY Jets -4

Confidence: None

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at St. Louis Rams: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7) at St. Louis Rams (5-8)

Ordinarily, non-divisional home favorites do really well on Thursday nights, going 26-13 ATS since 2002. It makes sense. It’s tough for a team to face an unfamiliar and superior opponent on a short week on the road. The Rams are non-divisional home favorites on Thursday night here, but they are not the superior team, ranking 31st in rate of moving the chains differential. Defensive end Robert Quinn, safety TJ McDonald, and outside linebacker Alec Ogletree are all out for the season right now, so the Rams are far less talented defensively than their 6th place rank in rate of moving the chains allowed suggests. Offensively, they don’t just rank dead last in rate of moving the chains; they’re also arguably the worst offense I’ve seen in years. The Buccaneers are not a great team, but they’re significantly more talented than the Rams and rank 22nd in rate of moving the chains differential. The Rams shouldn’t be favored here.

The Rams are only favored by a point and a half, so we’re not getting a ton of line value with the Buccaneers, but the Buccaneers are also in a way better spot. While they get to host the Bears next week, a game in which they’ll be favored, the Rams have to go to Seattle and face a surging Seahawks team, a game in which they’ll definitely be underdogs. Underdogs are 115-77 ATS before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, since 2010.

Not only are the Rams underdogs next week, but they’ll probably be double digit underdogs in arguably the toughest game of their season. That’s really going to make it hard to focus this week. Teams are understandably 89-146 ATS since 2008 before being double digit underdogs, including 18-31 ATS as favorites. Combining all this, teams are just 19-47 ATS since 1989 as favorites before being double digit underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites. On top of that, the Rams are coming off of a win as home underdogs, a spot teams are 44-72 ATS in since 2012. This is Pick of the Week material if the line climbs to a field goal. I like the Buccaneers a good deal either way.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 St. Louis Rams 13 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +1.5

Confidence: Medium

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Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (6-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-7)

I’m a little confused why this is an even line. I think the Eagles should be favored by at least a field goal. These two teams are very even in rate of moving the chains differential (Buffalo is 20th and Philadelphia is 21st) and, while the Eagles are arguably healthier than they’ve been all season, the Bills are missing two defensive starters, linebacker Nigel Bradham and cornerback Stephon Gilmore. It’s tempting to put money on the Eagles, but they have a tough upcoming home game against the Arizona Cardinals. They should be home underdogs of around 4 points. Teams are 80-125 ATS before being 3+ point home underdogs and 45-84 ATS before being 4+ point home underdogs, since 2012. The Eagles are the pick though.

Philadelphia Eagles 17 Buffalo Bills 13

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia PK

Confidence: Low

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Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Oakland Raiders (5-7) at Denver Broncos (10-2)

The Broncos lost at home 29-13 to the Chiefs week 10, but it turns out that bottoming out was exactly what the Broncos needed. Peyton Manning played so poorly in that game, completing 5 of 20 passes for 35 yards and 4 interceptions, that the Broncos shut him down so he could heal from some injuries. Brock Osweiler has been an improvement over 3 games, all wins, while Manning waits in limbo. They have a decision to make down the road, but, so far, the Broncos have moved the chains at a 70.71% rate in Osweiler’s 3 starts, as opposed to 66.43% in Manning’s 9 starts.

The Broncos also have the league’s #3 defense, in terms of rate of moving the chains allowed. They’re kind of banged up on that side of the ball right now, missing linebacker Danny Trevathan and safety TJ Ward, but they’re coming off of a dominant performance in San Diego and this team, right now with Osweiler under center, is more talented than their rank in rate of moving the chains differential, which is 8th. The Raiders, meanwhile, are less talented than their rank, 13th. They get center Rodney Hudson back this week, which is big, but their defense has been pretty weak since losing defensive end Justin Tuck for the season with an injury (week 5) and outside linebacker Aldon Smith for the season with a suspension (week 10). This line seems pretty appropriate at a touchdown and neither team is in a great spot or anything, so I’m just going to fade the public and take the points for a no confidence pick.

Denver Broncos 23 Oakland Raiders 17

Pick against the spread: Oakland +7

Confidence: None

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Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (4-8) at Green Bay Packers (8-4)

When these two teams met in the playoffs last year, the Cowboys were 8-0 on the road and the Packers were 8-0 at home, the first time in NFL history a team that hadn’t lost at home hosted a playoff game against a team that hadn’t lost on the road. The Cowboys covered as 5.5 point underdogs, but lost the game in a very controversial 26-21 ending. This matchup is a little different. Quarterback Tony Romo is out for the season for the Cowboys and the same is true of wide receiver Jordy Nelson for the Packers, key players on both of these offenses. The Packers have lost their last 2 straight up at home, both as significant favorites like they are here.

However, as long as Aaron Rodgers starts (minus any games he’s been knocked out very early with injuries), the Packers are 30-14-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 39-6 straight up, with an absurd +604 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 13.42 points per game. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are 19-10 ATS as road underdogs since 2010. That makes it tough to pick which team is going to cover. Rate of moving the chains differential doesn’t help out much either. The Packers rank 9th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Cowboys rank 17th and have moved the chains at a slightly worse rate in the 8 games Tony Romo has missed (69.14%), as opposed to the 4 games he has played (72.80%). This line, -7 in favor of the Packers, is pretty appropriate.

I’m going to take the Cowboys for three reasons. For one, the Packers are missing center Corey Linsley, which could easily hurt their offense. Two, the Packers are heavily backed by the public and I like to fade the public whenever it makes sense, as they always lose money in the long run. Three, the Packers have lost their last two home games, so they’re not exactly an auto-bet at home anymore. The Cowboys are a solid road team that can keep this close, but I wouldn’t want to have any sort of money going against Green Bay. It’s a no confidence pick.

Green Bay Packers 23 Dallas Cowboys 17

Pick against the spread: Dallas +7

Confidence: None

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New England Patriots at Houston Texans: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (10-2) at Houston Texans (6-6)

The Patriots are 33-17 ATS off of a loss when Tom Brady starts and they haven’t lost 3 straight since 2003. The problem is that the public is all over New England. They seem to rightfully see New England’s loss last week at home against the Eagles for the fluke that it was, a game in which the Patriots lost by a touchdown despite allowing 3 return touchdowns and going 1 of 3 on onside kick attempts. The Patriots moved the chains at a 73.81% rate, as opposed to 68.00% for the Eagles, and if a few things that almost never happen didn’t happen, the Patriots would have likely won by double digits. With the Patriots getting healthier this week, the public can’t see the Patriots not winning by more than 5 and covering this 4.5 point spread.

However, close to 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or less so this could be a close game much more easily than the public seems to think. The standard adjustment for homefield advantage is about 2.5-3 points, so this line suggests that the Patriots would be favored by about 10 or 10.5 over the Texans in New England. Considering the Eagles were just +9 last week, that doesn’t make much sense. I like to fade the public whenever it makes sense, as they always lose money in the long run, and it makes sense here.

New England is healthier, with linebacker Jamie Collins going into his 2nd game back from an illness, defensive tackle Dominique Easley returning, and tight end Rob Gronkowski likely to suit up following a one game absence, after practicing with the team Thursday and Friday and making the trip on Saturday. But they’re far from full strength. Linebacker Dont’a Hightower did not travel with the team, so he’ll miss his 2nd straight game, wide receiver Julian Edelman and running back Dion Lewis are obviously still out, and, while Gronkowski is expected to play, he could be used in a limited fashion just two weeks after he hyperextended and bruised his knee. Guard Josh Kline is also out.

The Texans are much closer to 100%. They don’t have anyone listed as anything less than probable this week and their only key player on injured reserve is running back Arian Foster, who he barely played this season, totaling just 390 yards from scrimmage on 74 touches. Defensive end JJ Watt broke his hand in practice this week, but he’s expected to play and, as Jason Pierre-Paul has shown, hands aren’t the most important thing for defensive linemen. The Texans rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential and, with outside linebacker Jadeveon Clowney and cornerback Kareem Jackson now healthy, they’re as talented a team as that suggests in a league that seems to be less talented across the board this season. I don’t love going against New England this week, but this is just too many points.

New England Patriots 23 Houston Texans 20

Pick against the spread: Houston +4.5

Confidence: Low

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New York Giants at Miami Dolphins: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (5-7) at Miami Dolphins (4-8)

The Giants host the Panthers next week (against whom they’ll be 3.5 point home underdogs), so they could easily be caught looking forward to that game this week, when they face the Dolphins in Miami, a game in which they’re favored by 2.5. Road favorites like the Giants are 32-46 ATS since 2008 before being home underdogs. On top of that, teams are 80-125 ATS before being 3+ point home underdogs and 45-84 ATS before being 4+ point home underdogs, since 2012. Combining the two, teams are 55-82 ATS as road favorites before being 3+ point home underdogs since 1989.

We’re also getting a little bit of line value with the Dolphins. While the Dolphins rank 29th in rate of moving the chains, the Giants aren’t much better at 26th, as they’ve been overly reliant on winning the turnover margin this season. Their turnover margin on the season is great at +10, but there’s almost no correlation between a team’s turnover margin one week and its turnover margin the next week. You just can’t rely on that every week. Despite that, the public is all over the Giants, probably because they don’t know that. The only thing stopping me from being confident in the Dolphins is the fact that the Giants are 60-40 ATS on the road in the Eli Manning/Tom Coughlin era (2004). If the line moves to a field goal, I’d consider putting money on the Dolphins.

Miami Dolphins 17 New York Giants 16 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Miami +2.5

Confidence: Low

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Detroit Lions at St. Louis Rams: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (4-8) at St. Louis Rams (4-8)

Everything about this game screams to me to take St. Louis and the field goal. The Rams have gone from 2 point home favorites to field goal home underdogs in a week, from the early line last week to the line this week. I love to fade a significant line movement whenever it makes sense, as they tend be overreactions to a single week of play. It makes sense here. Despite the fact that the Rams rank 31st in rate of moving the chains differential, we’re getting some line value with them, as the Lions rank just 27th, especially since about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal

It’s no surprise that we’re getting line value with the Rams, as they’ve lost two straight games by 21 or more. Teams are 43-27 ATS since 2002 off of back-to-back losses by 21+, as teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that spot. The Rams could easily be all 3 this week. The Rams are also home underdogs off of a loss as home underdogs, a spot teams are 75-52 ATS in since 2002. Despite all of this, the public is all over the Lions. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense because the public always loses money in the long run.

However, the Rams are just such a mess right now. Defensive end Robert Quinn, cornerback Janoris Jenkins, and safety TJ McDonald are all out this one, so the Rams are far less talented defensively than their 5th place rank in rate of moving the chains allowed suggests. Offensively, they don’t just rank dead last in rate of moving the chains; they’re also easily the worst offense I’ve seen in years. Transitioning to a new offensive coordinator this week, the Rams are going to have a really hard time moving the chains this week and their defense isn’t talented enough anymore to even come close to compensating. As currently constructed, they might be the worst team in the NFL. I’m taking the Rams, but I’m not confident at all.

Detroit Lions 15 St. Louis Rams 13

Pick against the spread: St. Louis +3

Confidence: Low

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (10-2)

The Steelers had a big week last week. Not only did they big win, 45-10, over a competent Indianapolis team, but the Seattle Seahawks won big (38-7) on the road in Minnesota, against a solid Vikings team, so the Steelers’ loss the week before to the Seahawks looks a lot better now. The Steelers have been playing much better football since Ben Roethlisberger returned from injury. They rank 10th in rate of moving the chains differential and have moved the chains at a 75.65% rate in the 8 games Ben Roethlisberger has played, as opposed to 63.64% in their 4 games without Roethlisberger.

However, I feel like this line is getting too carried away, with the Steelers as mere 2.5 point favorites in Cincinnati. That’s significant because about 1 in 6 games are decided by a field goal exactly and it means that the Steelers are seen as the better of these two teams. That seems to overlook that the Bengals are legitimately one of the best teams in the NFL (even missing cornerback Adam Jones), ranking 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential. They beat the Steelers 16-10 in Pittsburgh a few weeks back and that was when Roethlisberger was healthy. This line seems to forget that. The Bengals are also in a great spot, as the early line has them favored by 7 in San Francisco next week. Teams are 31-14 ATS before being 7+ point road favorites since 2012. The Bengals are 10-1-1 ATS on the season and seem to be getting undervalued here again. I’d put money on them winning by at least a field goal, as the better team, without an upcoming distraction.

Cincinnati Bengals 27 Pittsburgh Steelers 20

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -2.5

Confidence: Medium

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