Year: 2015

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 11 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Packers, Uncategorized, Vikings

Green Bay Packers (6-3) at Minnesota Vikings (7-2)

Aaron Rodgers is 23-12 ATS off of a loss in his career, as he typically responds well to adversity, but, now having lost 3 straight, public confidence in Rodgers is much lower than normal. This line has gone from favoring the Packers by a field goal in Minnesota to even, from the early line last week to now, a pretty significant line movement considering close to 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less, but the public isn’t really on the Packers, as the action is pretty split.

Typically, I love fading significant line movements like that, as they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play, but I too am having a hard time being confident in the Packers. I wasn’t too worried about the Packers after their first two losses, because they were on the road in tough places to win (Denver and Carolina), but last week they lost at home for the first time since the 2013 post-season and they did it as huge home favorites against a Detroit team that is one of the worst teams in the league. They still rank 8th in rate of moving the chains differential, but their offense (XX) just simply isn’t the same without injured top receiver Jordy Nelson, who tore his ACL in the pre-season.

I ultimately do expect the Packers to turn it around and I do think last week’s loss was a fluke, but this is a tough spot for them to turn it around. The Vikings are a legitimate team, one that ranks 9th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, and the Packers are not the same team on the road. There’s definitely an argument to be made that we’re still getting some line value with the Vikings. They’ve faced a very easy schedule and the Packers are the toughest opponent they’ve faced this season, but neither team has beaten anyone better than Seattle or San Diego. The Packers also have to play again in 4 days on Thanksgiving. Fortunately, they’re not favored here, as favorites are 43-68 ATS since 2008 before a Thursday Night game, but they’re a point away from being favored, so it’s worth bringing up. As much as I hate going against Rodgers off of a loss and as much as I hate not fading a significant line movement, I have to go with the Vikings for a no confidence pick this week.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Green Bay Packers 23

Pick against the spread: Minnesota PK

Confidence: None

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Oakland Raiders at Detroit Lions: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 11 NFL Picks, Lions, NFL Picks, Raiders, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (4-5) at Detroit Lions (2-7)

The Raiders get talented center Rodney Hudson back from a one game absence this week, but they’ve also lost talented edge rusher Aldon Smith for the season with a suspension. Oakland has a solid offense (8th in rate of moving the chains) and one that is still at essentially full health with Hudson returning, but their defense isn’t nearly as good and has especially struggled without talented defensive end Justin Tuck, who went down for the season around a month ago. Now without Aldon Smith, this defense gets really thin on talent behind 2nd year player Khalil Mack, free agent acquisition Dan Williams, and ageless wonder Charles Woodson.

Still, this line, in which the Raiders are favored by only a point in Detroit, is too low. Despite their very close victory in Green Bay last week, the Lions still rank 31st in rate of moving the chains differential (the Raiders are 11th on the season). The Lions are also in an awful spot this week, caught in between last week’s huge, emotional upset victory and a tough home game against the Eagles on Thanksgiving 4 days after this one, in which they’re expected to be 3 point home underdogs. Teams are 36-58 ATS since 1989 off of a road victory as 10+ point underdogs, while teams are 76-119 ATS before being 3+ point home underdogs since 2012.

The Lions aren’t guaranteed to be field goal home underdogs next week, but, either way, the logic still stands; it’s going to be hard for the Lions to focus on the Raiders off of such a big victory last week with such a big home game on deck, especially given that it’s in 4 days on Thanksgiving. The Lions have covered just once before their previous 10 Thanksgiving games. The Raiders, meanwhile, just have a trip to Tennessee, where they should be road favorites, on deck. I wish the Lions were favored, even if only by a point or two, as favorites are 43-68 ATS since 2008 before a Thursday Night game, but there’s enough here for me to put money on the Raiders. They should win and we’re getting field goal protection and then some with them.

Oakland Raiders 24 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against the spread: Oakland -1

Confidence: Medium

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Washington Redskins at Carolina Panthers: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 11 NFL Picks, Commanders, NFL Picks, Panthers, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (4-5) at Carolina Panthers (9-0)

The Panthers are one of the best teams in the NFL, ranking 4th in rate of moving the chains differential with an undefeated record, so it might be surprising that they’re only favored by 7.5 here. However, Washington is a solid opponent, ranking 17th in rate of moving the chains differential, and healthier than they’ve been all season, while Carolina is missing left guard Andrew Norwell and cornerback Charles Tillman. On top of that, the Panthers are in a terrible spot, going to Dallas in four days on Thanksgiving. Favorites are 43-68 ATS since 2008 before a Thursday Night game.

Going off of that, because Tony Romo is now back for Dallas, the early line is even, meaning the Panthers could easily end up being underdogs. That would put the Panthers in another bad spot because favorites are just 95-168 ATS since 2008 before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites (the Redskins host the Giants next week). Even if the Panthers don’t end up being underdogs, the logic still holds; The Panthers are in a bad spot with a tough road game coming up in 4 days. It’s not enough to take the Redskins with much confidence, but they should be the right side, as long as this line is a touchdown or higher.

Carolina Panthers 16 Washington Redskins 10

Pick against the spread: Washington +7.5

Confidence: Low

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San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 11 NFL Picks, 49ers, NFL Picks, Seahawks, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (3-6) at Seattle Seahawks (4-5)

The Seahawks covered in 15 of their first 20 home games in the Russell Wilson era, but they are just 6-7 ATS since. What happened? Do they not have the same homefield advantage anymore? It’s possible, but I think two others things have contributed to that more. The first is that they’re just not the same team anymore. Back-to-back defending NFC Champions, Seattle is just 4-5 this season and ranks just 19th in rate of moving the chains differential, thanks largely to a remade offense that is not moving the chains well. They’ve had a tough schedule, losing in Green Bay and Cincinnati and at home to Arizona and Carolina, but the toughest team they’ve beaten is Dallas and, ordinarily, the Seahawks would have been able to win at least a couple of those aforementioned tough games, especially at home. Because of the fact that they’re struggling by their standards this season, they’ve been overrated by the odds makers and the public all year, which has led to them failing to cover at home this season (1-3 ATS).

The other reason why the Seahawks haven’t covered at a high rate at home over the past year and a half is because the odds makers have been pricing the Seahawks’ home dominance expensively into the line. It’s not a secret anymore. Even last year, they were just 5-4 ATS at home and they played well last season overall, better than this year. That being said, I don’t think this line is high enough. I think we can buy a little low on Seattle this week. San Francisco ranks dead last in the league in rate of moving the chains differential and the Seahawks should be favored by at least two touchdowns over them in Seattle, especially considering the fact that the 49ers are in a bad spot with a home clash against the Cardinals on deck.

San Francisco is expected to be home underdogs of 8 points in that one, according to the early line. Teams are 14-30 ATS before being 7+ point home underdogs since 2012, as it can be tough to concentrate on the week and matchup in front of you with such a big home game on deck. On top of that, teams are 41-64 ATS as 6+ point underdogs before being 6+ point underdogs since 2012, as inferior teams with an upcoming distraction tend to get blown out by a superior team. That’s what I think will happen here. The line is big, but I’m confident enough to put money down on them. The 49ers are still awful and the Seahawks still deserve more than 3 points for homefield advantage.

Seattle Seahawks 27 San Francisco 49ers 10

Pick against the spread: Seattle -12.5

Confidence: Medium

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Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (8-1) at Arizona Cardinals (7-2)

This line has shifted significantly in the past week, as the Cardinals were favored by 3 on the early line last week, but now are favored by 4.5, following the Cardinals’ big win in Seattle and the Bengals’ home loss to the mediocre Houston Texans. Considering about 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer, that shift is significant. Ordinarily, I like to go against significant line movements, because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play, but I actually think this line is still too low.

Despite the fact that the Bengals only have one loss and the Cardinals have two, the Cardinals are a noticeably better team. In their 2 losses, they won the first down battle by a combined 20 first downs and only lost because they had a -3 turnover margin in both games. Turnover margins are incredibly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. On average, teams that have a -3 turnover margin in a game have a +0.1 turnover margin the following game. That’s why I don’t really like to use turnover margin as evidence to support an evaluation of a team. The Cardinals, despite a couple losses, have been really dominant through their first 9 games, putting up a +117 point differential, despite just a +1 turnover margin on the season. The Bengals are +83 with a +3 turnover margin.

The Cardinals rank 1st in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Bengals “only” rank 3rd and by a significant margin, -3.48%. The Bengals might be the toughest opponent the Cardinals have faced this season, but I think the same can be said vice versa about the other side. Neither of these teams has really faced anyone tougher than the Seahawks. While the Cardinals beat the Seahawks by 7 in Seattle and won the first down battle 30-18, the Bengals needed a major comeback and overtime to beat the Seahawks in Cincinnati.

The Cardinals are a significantly better team, especially with the Bengals missing cornerback Adam Jones and defensive end Michael Johnson with injury. They’re also in a better spot, with a trip to San Francisco on deck. The early line has them as favored by 8 in San Francisco and teams are 29-13 ATS before being 7+ point road favorites since 2012. On top of that, teams are 79-41 ATS as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point favorites since 2012. The Cardinals obviously aren’t favored by 6+ here, but they should be and the logic still holds. Significantly better teams tend to win big when they don’t have an upcoming distraction. I wish this line was 4 or lower because about 28.8% of games are decided by 4 points or fewer, but the Cardinals are definitely the right side this week. It’s just not Pick of the Week material out of fear of a backdoor cover.

Arizona Cardinals 23 Cincinnati Bengals 13

Pick against the spread: Arizona -4.5

Confidence: High

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Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (7-2) at Chicago Bears (4-5)

The Broncos are in a really tough spot here this week, with probably their toughest and biggest game of the season on deck, a clash with Tom Brady and the currently undefeated New England Patriots in Denver, a game in which the Patriots are expected to be 5.5 point road favorites, per the early line. Teams tend to struggle before being huge home underdogs, as it can be tough to concentrate on the week and matchup in front of you with such a big home game on deck. Teams are 43-80 ATS before being 4+ point home underdogs, 22-52 ATS before being 6+ point home underdogs, and 14-30 ATS before being 7+ point home underdogs, since 2012. Making matters even worse is the fact that the Broncos are road favorites here in Chicago. Teams are 19-36 ATS since 2010 as road favorites before being home underdogs, as it’s understandably very hard to focus on an inferior opponent when you have such a tough upcoming game.

Speaking of the Broncos being road favorites, I think this line is way off, even with the Broncos only being favored by a point. Denver, despite their record, ranks 18th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains allowed. Their defense has been strong, ranking 5th in rate of moving the chains differential, though they haven’t been quite as good in the last 2 weeks without starting defensive end DeMarcus Ware, who will miss his 3rd straight game this week. The offense is what’s been the problem for the Broncos, as they rank 30th in rate of moving the chains.

The Broncos switch from Peyton Manning, who is old and banged up, to Brock Osweiler this week. Manning is officially listed as out with a foot injury, but he’s no lock to regain his job when healthy. He was playing so poorly (59.9%, 6.77 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions) that Osweiler could easily be an upgrade and the variance and unpredictably of an inexperienced quarterback scares me when betting against one, because I just don’t know how good they are, but Osweiler will be hamstrung by the same weak running game and offensive line as Manning.

The Bears, meanwhile, rank 16th in rate of moving the chains differential and have been much better offensively with Jay Cutler healthy, as he’s playing some of the best football of his career under ex-Manning offensive coordinator Adam Gase. They move the chains at a 73.39% rate in the 7 games where Cutler has been healthy, as opposed to 56.25% in their other 2 games. Both wide receiver Alshon Jeffery and running back Matt Forte are gametime decisions for this one, ahead of a Thursday Night trip to Green Bay, but Jeffery is expected to play and Forte’s replacement, Jeremy Langford, has been strong in his absence over the past 2 weeks. I don’t like that they play again in 4 days, but their opponent this week is tough enough that they should be focused and I don’t think they should be favored by any less than 4 points. Instead, Denver is favored by 1 in a bad spot. Chicago is my Pick of the Week.

Chicago Bears 24 Denver Broncos 17 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Chicago +1

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (2-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6)

Things seem to be looking up for the Jacksonville Jaguars, who won their 3rd game of the season last week, on a last second field goal in Baltimore. Though just 3-6, Jacksonville is only a game out of first place in the AFC South, behind an Indianapolis team that just lost its starting quarterback for a month. The Jaguars also are favored and have a better record than their opponent this week, at home against the 2-7 Titans. This is just their 4th game since the start of the 2012 season in which they’ve been favored (1-2 ATS) and their 2nd game over that time period in which they’ve had a better record than their opponent. Not only are they field goal favorites, after a 2 point line movement between this week and last week, significant considering close to 1 in 6 games is decided by a field goal, the Jaguars also have the backing of the public, at least to some extent. This is unprecedented for this team in recent memory.

The Jaguars have definitely been better over the past few weeks than they have been in recent years. In their past 6 games, they have a rate of moving the chains differential of-2.88%, which would rank 24th in the NFL on the season, significantly better than their overall rank on the season of 29th (-5.48%). What happened? Well, they got a lot healthier. Early in the season, they were missing tight end Julius Thomas, left tackle Luke Joeckel, defensive tackle Sen’Derrick Marks, cornerback Dwayne Gratz, and right guard Brandon Linder. They got all of those players back, except Linder who is out for the season. This is a rare instance of a team that has gotten healthier as the season has gone on, though they lost Marks for the season last week, which hurts.

The Titans have had some pretty key injuries this season, including, most importantly, a two game absence by talented rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota, in which they scored a combined 13 points. In their other 7 games, they move the chains at a 72.32% rate. It hurts that top receiver Kendall Wright is out, but they should have success moving the chains against a weak Jacksonville defense. The Titans are also missing starting cornerbacks Perrish Cox and Jason McCourty. The defense has struggled without them this season, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 73.36% rate on the season, and very rarely have both been off the field at the same time. Still, they’re the better team and I like getting field goal protection. There’s not enough here for me to be too confident though.

Tennessee Titans 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 23 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3

Confidence: Low

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New Orleans Saints at Washington Redskins: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 10 NFL Picks, Commanders, NFL Picks, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (4-5) at Washington Redskins (3-5)

Even at 36 years of age, Drew Brees is playing very well. He’s completing 69.6% of his passes for an average of 8.08 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, while leading an offense that ranks 4th in rate of moving the chains. Last year they ranked 2nd, but they’re obviously still a very good offense and this year they’re doing it with the likes of wide receiver Willie Snead (41/626/3) and tight end Ben Watson (43/532/3) playing huge roles in the passing game. Brees is still one of the best quarterbacks in the league. The defense remains weak and has had issues with injuries all year, but they rank 12th overall in rate of moving the chains differential.

However, the Redskins are a decent team, ranking 21st in rate of moving the chains differential and are finally healthy with the likes of cornerback Chris Culliver, cornerback DeAngelo Hall, and wide receiver DeSean Jackson all playing in this one. The Saints, meanwhile, could be missing talented left tackle Terron Armstead, in addition to more minor losses on the defensive side of the ball (linebacker Dannell Ellerbe, linebacker David Hawthorne, cornerback Damian Swann). It’s hard to back them to win straight up in Washington, so I’m going to fade the public and go with Washington, who also seems to be the sharps’ choice, but I have no confidence. I would need a field goal to take either side.

Washington Redskins 26 New Orleans Saints 24

Pick against the spread: Washington PK

Confidence: None

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Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 10 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Cowboys, NFL Draft, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (2-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5)

The Cowboys have lost 6 straight games since losing Tony Romo to a broken collarbone week 2. Romo is expected back next week, when he’s first eligible to come off of injured reserve, but it could be too late. It will be too late if they lose here in Tampa Bay. Fortunately, Tampa Bay is arguably the easiest opponent they’ll face this season. They rank 30th in rate of moving the chains differential and have an awful homefield advantage, going 16-35 ATS (1-3 ATS this season) at home since 2009. Given that, the Cowboys should probably be favored by a little bit more than the point they’re favored by here.

It might sound weird to say that a team that has lost 6 straight games should be favored on the road, but the Buccaneers have just been so bad at home this season (getting outscored 142-93). Besides, the Cowboys are better than their record, ranking 19th in rate of moving the chains differential. Of their 6 losses, 4 have come by less than a touchdown. They’ll miss Sean Lee with injury this week, but getting Dez Bryant back to 100%, like he appears to be after last week’s performance, should help cancel that out a little bit. Matt Cassel isn’t the best quarterback in the world, but the Cowboys have a strong offensive supporting cast around him. The Buccaneers are missing Vincent Jackson and, even if this turns into a shootout, I think the Cowboys can still keep up and win against Tampa Bay’s awful defense.

It’s tough to love the Cowboys as long as the line is between a field goal either way though, as about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. On top of that, the line has been alternating. If the Buccaneers are underdogs, it puts them in a good spot, as home underdogs are 75-52 ATS off of a loss as home underdogs. However, if the Cowboys are underdogs, they’re in a good spot because the Cowboys are 20-11 ATS as road underdogs since 2009. Basically, I see this as a field goal game. I expect the Cowboys to win, but not enough to put money on them without field goal protection.

Dallas Cowboys 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24

Pick against the spread: Dallas -1

Confidence: Low

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New England Patriots at New York Giants: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (8-0) at New York Giants (5-4)

The Giants have a winning record, but this line might not be high enough at 7.5. The Giants are not nearly as good as their record, ranking 25th in rate of moving the chains differential on the season, largely as a result of a defense that ranks 30th in rate of moving the chains allowed. Injuries have ravaged a group that wasn’t very talented to begin with. Middle linebacker Jon Beason is out for the season. Cornerback Prince Amukamara remains out. Defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul returned last week, but it’s still unclear how effective he can be after blowing off part of his hand in the off-season. On top of that, the Giants lost talented defensive tackle Johnathan Hankins for the season last week.

The Giants have had success in the win/loss column this season, largely because of a +12 turnover margin, but that kind of thing is very tough to count on every week. The correlation between a team’s turnover margin in one game and its turnover margin in the next game is virtually non-existent. Even if that wasn’t true, their odds of being able to force multiple turnovers against a New England team that has 5 all season aren’t very good. The Giants are going to have a very hard time getting the Patriots off the field. They rank 1st in the league in rate of moving the chains and 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential.

It does help the Giants that the Patriots’ offense is really banged up. Running back Dion Lewis is out for the season and their top 3 offensive tackles, Nate Solder, Sebastian Vollmer, and Marcus Cannon are also out for this one, leaving the Patriots with a very weak offensive line and without their top checkdown option. However, the Giants’ defense is so weak that it might not matter much. Defensively, the Patriots are expected to get top pass rusher Jabaal Sheard back from a 3 game absence, but talented linebacker Jamie Collins is expected to miss his 2nd straight game with an illness. This line, at the very least, is appropriate, given the talent disparity between these two teams and the ease with which the Patriots should put up points.

The Patriots are also in a good spot, with a home game against the Bills on deck. Teams are 79-39 ATS since 2012 as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point favorites again, as good teams tend to take care of business and win big over inferior opponents when they don’t have any upcoming distractions. The Patriots are also 52-28 ATS in the Bill Belichick era against a team that beat them in their previous matchup, as the Giants did in the Super Bowl at the end of the 2011 season. It’s not enough for me to put money on the Patriots, especially with the public all over them and the Patriots’ injury situation looming larger than it has all season, but they should be able to put up a bunch of points and cover this spread.

New England Patriots 34 New York Giants 24

Pick against the spread: New England -7.5

Confidence: Low

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