Year: 2015

Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 9 NFL Picks, 49ers, Falcons, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (6-2) at San Francisco 49ers (2-6)

The Falcons have been exposed a little bit in recent weeks. They needed overtime to beat the Redskins in Atlanta, lost in New Orleans, only won by a field goal in Tennessee, who was starting a backup quarterback, and then lost at home in overtime to the Buccaneers last week. On the season, they have just 2 wins by more than 4 points and they haven’t played a single team with a winning record. Despite that, they’re favored by 7.5 points here on the road in San Francisco.

This line was 4 a week ago and typically I love fading significant line movements like this because they tend to be overreactions to single weeks. However, despite the fact that the Falcons are not as good as their record, I actually think this line is too low, if anything. The 49ers are in complete disarray right now. Following a brutal off-season in which they lost about half of their starters, they rank dead last in rate of moving the chains differential by a wide margin. Starting wide receiver Anquan Boldin is out for this one, as is starting running back Carlos Hyde. The 49ers are also without top backup running backs Reggie Bush and Mike Davis with injury, so they’ll be going with a committee of Kendall Gaskins, their 4th string running back, and free agent acquisitions Shaun Draughn and Pierre Thomas, who have been with the team for less than a week.

On top of that, they’ve benched starting quarterback Colin Kaepernick for Blaine Gabbert. Kaepernick certainly wasn’t playing well at all, but Gabbert has been one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league whenever he’s been counted on to play in his 5 year NFL career, completing 53.2% of his passes for an average of 5.61 YPA, 23 touchdowns, and 24 interceptions. As bad as Kaepernick has been, Gabbert is a clear downgrade and, combining that with the injuries, this line movement is perfectly legitimate. The Falcons, meanwhile, rank 6th in rate of moving the chains differential. That’s inflated by their week schedule, but I’d still take them here in San Francisco as up to 10 point favorites.

They’re also in a good spot going into a bye. Good teams tend to take care of business going into a bye and win big as big favorites. Home favorites of 6+ going into the bye are 59-20 ATS since 2002. The Cardinals, unfortunately, are not at home for this one, but 3+ point road favorites are still 40-26 ATS going into a bye, for the same reason. It’s not as powerful of a trend as the other one, but the logic behind both is the same. Matt Ryan is also 25-13 ATS off of a loss in his career. I can’t bring myself to put money on the Falcons as long as the line is over a touchdown, especially with the public is all over the Falcons, but they should win this one pretty easily.

Atlanta Falcons 24 San Francisco 49ers 13

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -7.5

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 9 NFL Picks, Bills, Dolphins, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (3-4) at Buffalo Bills (3-4)

The bye came at the perfect time for the Buffalo Bills, who limped into the bye with two straight losses, including a loss in London to the Jaguars, in a game in which they were missing starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor, talented backup running back Karlos Williams, starting wide receivers Percy Harvin and Sammy Watkins, and star defensive tackle Kyle Williams. The Bills aren’t 100% this week, but they definitely come out of the bye healthier. Harvin has been put on injured reserve (I know, shocker), Kyle Williams remains out, and Sammy Watkins is going to be a game time call after tweaking his ankle injury late in the week, but Taylor and Karlos Williams are both definitely returning. Taylor’s return is definitely the biggest one, as he was playing pretty well before going down, while backup quarterback EJ Manuel didn’t play well in his absence.

However, the Bills also come out of the bye into an awful spot, with a Thursday night trip to New York to play the Jets on deck, following this home contest against the Dolphins. Divisional home favorites are 21-58 ATS before being divisional road underdogs since 2002, one of the worst spots a team can be in. On top of that, favorites are 42-67 ATS before a Thursday night game since 2008. Meanwhile, divisional home favorites are just 31-54 ATS against a team they previously beat that season as divisional road favorites, as the Bills did back in week 3.

This would be my Pick of the Week most weeks. The only reason it’s not this week, in addition to the fact that I really like the undefeated Panthers as field goal home underdogs against Green Bay, is because the Bills are a slightly better team and are only favored by a field goal. They rank 22nd in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Dolphins rank 25th in rate of moving the chains differential. On top of that, they’re getting healthier, while the Dolphins just lost one of their top defensive players, Cameron Wake, for the season. However, the Bills are still far from healthy and we’re still getting field goal protection with the Dolphins (15.6% of games are decided by a field goal) and, of course, the Bills are in an awful spot. I really like Miami this week.

Miami Dolphins 16 Buffalo Bills 13 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Miami +3

Confidence: High

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 9 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Packers, Panthers, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (6-1) at Carolina Panthers (7-0)

The Packers are coming off of an embarrassing offensive performance in a loss in Denver. Their high powered offense moved the chains at a mere 68.18% rate and generated just 140 yards of offense, the fewest they’ve had in a game started by Aaron Rodgers in his whole career. Some are brushing that performance off as a product of the Broncos’ defense, who have been called arguably the greatest defense of all time this week by some. The Broncos certainly have a great defense, one that ranks 1st in the league in rate of moving the chains allowed, but calling them an all-time great at this point is a huge overreaction.

I’m not so sure the Packers will find too much more offensive success this week in Carolina, who rank 4th in rate of moving the chains allowed. Obviously there are some fluky elements to the Packers having such a poor offensive performance last week, even against a great defense like Denver, but there are legitimate reasons for concern. This offense hasn’t been the same this year without top receiver Jordy Nelson, who tore his ACL in the pre-season. They rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential, but that’s a far cry from last year, when they ranked #1. As I mentioned, the Panthers have one of the best defenses in the league, with defensive tackle Kawaan Short, middle linebacker Luke Kuechly, outside linebacker Thomas Davis, and cornerback Josh Norman all playing at an All-Pro level, so the Packers could definitely have issues moving the ball again this week.

The Panthers’ offense is pretty average, as it’s really been their defense that’s carried the team to their 7-0 record, while the Packers’ defense has been pretty solid, though it’s concerning that they struggled to contain a Denver offense that ranks 30th in rate of moving the chains this season. It’s possible that performance can be chalked up to a fluke and a product of Peyton Manning and company being rested and having a great game plan off of a bye, but, either way, the Packers rank lower in rate of moving the chains differential than the Panthers (8th vs. 5th) and yet the Packers are the ones getting a field goal here on the road, away from Lambeau where they’re so good. Since 2010, they’re 41-7 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 11.98 points per game (31-17 ATS), but just 27-21 on the road, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.12 points per game (24-24 ATS). This season, in addition to last big week’s loss in Denver, they’ve had trouble with both Chicago and San Francisco on the road and those are two of the worst teams in the league.

The Panthers are also in a good spot, going to Tennessee next week, a pretty easy place to play. Home underdogs are 72-44 ATS since 2002 before being road favorites. On top of that, teams are 106-82 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites, 69-49 ATS before being 4+ point road favorites, and 42-29 ATS before being 6+ point road favorites. It hurts the Panthers that they’ll be without talented left guard Andrew Norwell, but they get center Ryan Kalil back this week and the Packers have an equally big injury as cornerback Sam Shields hasn’t practiced all week and is considered very questionable at best.

It does help the Packers that they’re in their 2nd straight road game.  Teams are 41-28 ATS since 2008 as road favorites off of a road loss in their 2nd of two road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 208-213 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.50 points per game, as opposed to 296-414 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.97 points per game. Aaron Rodgers is also 21-10 ATS off a loss in his career, which should give Packers fans some hope for a bounce back performance. However, I still think taking the field goal with the better team in the better spot at home is a no brainer here, especially with the public heavily on the Packers. This is my Pick of the Week.

Carolina Panthers 24 Green Bay Packers 17 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Carolina +3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 9 NFL Picks, Bengals, Browns, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (2-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-0)

The Bengals are 7-0 for the first time in franchise history and are one of four remaining undefeated teams. Their undefeated season is highly unlikely to end this week, as they’re favored by 10 at home against the lowly Browns. I actually don’t think that line is high enough, as the Bengals rank 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Browns rank all the way down at 27. This is a matchup between one of the worst teams in the league and one of the best teams in the league and I don’t think this line quite reflects that. I have this line calculated at around 15.

That’s before we even get into these two teams’ respective injury situations. The Bengals have a couple of starters who will likely miss this game because of injury, linebacker Rey Maualuga and right tackle Andre Smith, but the Browns will likely be missing quarterback Josh McCown, wide receiver Brian Hartline, wide receiver Andrew Hawkins, cornerback Joe Haden, and safety Donte Whitner. On their own, none of those injuries are too damaging to this team (Haden and Whitner are having down years), but they all add up. The biggest one might be the one to their quarterback McCown. McCown isn’t very good, but Manziel is probably even worse and the task of preparing for a team like the Bengals, on the road, on a short week when you’ve had very little practice time with the first team is borderline impossible, especially with some receivers also missing with injury.

The Bengals are also in a great spot with no upcoming distractions on the horizon, hosting the Texans next week. The Browns, meanwhile, have to turn around and go to Pittsburgh next week. The Bengals will undoubtedly be favored by 6+ again, while the Browns undoubtedly will be underdogs of 6+ again. Teams are 77-39 ATS since 2012 as favorites of 6+ about being favorites of 6+ again, while underdogs of 6+ are 40-63 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs of 6+ again. Combining the two, teams are 35-13 ATS as favorites of 6+ before being favorites of 6+ when their opponent will be underdogs of 6+ again the following week, since 2010. There’s just too much for the Browns to overcome this week and, without a ton of public money on Cincinnati, I’m really confident in the Bengals as 10 point favorites. There are a few other lines I really like this week, but this one is definitely up there.

Cincinnati Bengals 27 Cleveland Browns 10

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -10

Confidence: High

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New York Giants at New Orleans Saints: 2015 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 8 NFL Picks, Giants, NFL Picks, Saints, Uncategorized

New York Giants (4-3) at New Orleans Saints (3-4)

The Saints were only 2 point favorites in this one last week, but, after their upset victory in Indianapolis, this line moved to 3.5, significant, considering 1 in 6 games is decided by a field goal. Typically, I like to go against these line movements because I think they’re based on week-to-week overreactions, but, this week, I’m not so sure. The Saints have a worse record than the Giants, but they rank 16th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Giants rank 23rd, so we might still be getting line value with the Saints. The Giants have been overly reliant on a +10 turnover margin, which is tough to count on every week. For example, they beat the Cowboys by a touchdown last week because they won the turnover battle by 4, which increases a team’s chances of winning to 95.5%. However, teams that win the turnover battle by 4, on average have a +0.0 turnover margin the following week. They’ll probably have to find a different way to win in this one and they might not find one.

Then again, the Saints aren’t very good so it might not take much to beat them. None of that is enough to take the Saints with any sort of confidence. The Saints are also pretty banged up, missing linebackers David Hawthorne and Dannell Ellerbe and cornerback Keenan Lewis, well paid veteran starters. However, this is true of the Giants too, as they’re missing cornerback Prince Amukamara, wide receiver Victor Cruz, and defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul. Both teams have struggled with injuries all season though, so there really isn’t any sort of tiebreaker here.

This is the closest game of the week for me, as there isn’t a clear better side at all. The line’s a little off in New Orleans’ favor, but not measurably. Both teams are banged up. They also have similarly easy games on deck, as the Saints host the Titans and the Giants go to Tampa Bay. New Orleans has enjoyed a great homefield advantage in recent years, going 35-17 ATS since 2008, excluding the season Sean Payton wasn’t on the sideline. However, the Giants have enjoyed equally impressive success against the spread on the road in recent years, going 59-39 ATS on the road in the Eli Manning/Tom Coughlin era (since 2004). I’m going with the Giants because the Saints are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games, but this one is as tight as it gets. I like that I get field goal protection with the Giants. If this line shifts significantly, I’d probably have a different pick. I’m expecting a field goal game.

New Orleans Saints 27 New York Giants 24

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +3.5

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams: 2015 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 8 NFL Picks, 49ers, NFL Picks, Rams, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (2-5) at St. Louis Rams (3-3)

The Rams are not as good as their 3-3 record, as they rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential. Given that, it might seem a little silly that they’re favored by 9 here against the 49ers. However, I think this line is pretty legitimate, as San Francisco is the worst team in the NFL by a wide margin, at least in terms of rate of moving the chains differential. Following their 20-3 loss at home to the Seahawks last week, this line has moved from 6 in the early line to 9 now, but I still think it’s appropriate. Typically, I like to fade significant line movements because they tend to be overreactions a single week, but I’m not going to be doing that this week.

The 49ers are also in a bad spot, as they host the Falcons next week, a game in which they’re expected to be 4 point home underdogs. Teams are 72-118 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 3+, 40-79 ATS over that same time period before being 4+ point home underdogs, and 21-51 ATS before being 6+ point home underdogs. If that line were to move to 6, it would open up another dooming trend, as 6+ point underdogs are 40-61 ATS before being 6+ point underdogs since 2012. Even if the line doesn’t end up going to 6, the logic still holds. Bad teams tend to struggle and lose big when they have an upcoming distraction. I’m not confident in the Rams at all, but they should be the right side.

St. Louis Rams 20 San Francisco 49ers 10

Pick against the spread: St. Louis -9

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans: 2015 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 8 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Texans, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (1-5) at Houston Texans (2-5)

The Texans are going into a bye this week. That might sound like a good thing, but it’s not, as counterintuitive as that might seem. Big home favorites (6+) typically do very well before a bye (59-20 ATS since 2002), but, for whatever reason, small home favorites like the Redskins are here do not. Teams who are favored by 1-5.5 points at home going into the bye are just 37-61 ATS over that aforementioned time period, as they tend to get caught looking forward to the bye. That could definitely happen to the Texans, who are 4 point favorites here against the Titans.

This line is also probably too high, as the Titans rank 15th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Texans rank 18th. The Titans are missing quarterback Marcus Mariota and cornerback Perrish Cox for the 2nd straight game, but the Texans aren’t in a great situation injury wise either. Defensive starters Kareem Jackson and Benardrick McKinney remain out, while the Texans were dealt a crippling blow last week when Arian Foster tore his Achilles and went down for the season. I’m not confident in the Titans, but I’m taking them here.

Houston Texans 20 Tennessee Titans 17

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +4

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers: 2015 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 8 NFL Picks, Colts, NFL Picks, Panthers, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (3-4) at Carolina Panthers (6-0)

Andrew Luck hasn’t looked right this season. His recent shoulder injury hasn’t helped, but he wasn’t playing well before that either, as he’s graded out as Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked quarterback, only ahead of Matt Stafford, on the season. It might be in the Colts’ best interest to rest him for a few weeks and go back to starting Matt Hasselbeck, who played decently in two spots starts in Luck’s absence earlier this year. He currently ranks as Pro Football Focus’ 13th ranked quarterback and the Colts moved the chains at a 73.85% rate in his two starts, as opposed to 69.57% in Luck’s five starts. Their defense has been solid, but that hasn’t been enough offensively, as they rank 18th in rate of moving the chains differential on the season, much worse than they have been in recent years.

It’s also possible that Hasselbeck’s success in his two starts has to do with the fact that he played 2 divisional opponents. The Colts play in arguably the worst division in football and, while they’ve gone 15-0 in the division since 2013, they are just 12-16 outside of the division over that time period and just 0-4 this season, as they’ve underachieved. That’s going to make it hard for them to keep it close in Carolina, against a Panthers team that ranks 5th in rate of moving the chains differential. It’s not enough for me to be confident in them, especially with the public all over them, but the Panthers should be the right side.

Carolina Panthers 27 Indianapolis Colts 17

Pick against the spread: Carolina -7

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2015 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 8 NFL Picks, Bengals, NFL Picks, Steelers, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (6-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3)

The Steelers get a huge boost this week, getting Ben Roethlisberger back from injury, and it comes at a perfect time, with the undefeated Bengals coming to town. The Steelers moved the chains at an 81.25% rate in the first 2 games of the season, before Roethlisberger went down midway through week 3, and have moved the chains at a 65.19% rate in 5 games since. Both Michael Vick and Landry Jones were major downgrades from Roethlisberger, who was Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked quarterback before going down.

Roethlisberger’s supporting cast is also even better than it was in the first 2 weeks of the season. Running back Le’Veon Bell didn’t return from his suspension until week 3 (the game when Roethlisberger went down), while wide receiver Martavis Bryant didn’t return until week 6. Bell is arguably the best running back in the NFL, while Martavis Bryant is a talented 2nd year receiver who has played really well in the past 2 weeks. They’re still not at completely full strength, like they were for almost all of last season (when they ranked 3rd in rate of moving the chains), as center Maurkice Pouncey is still out, but this is still one of the most talented offenses in the league. As long as Roethlisberger is close to as good as he was before getting hurt, the Steelers’ offense will be tough to stop this week.

The Bengals could easily be up to the challenge, as they’re one of the best teams in the league, ranking 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential. Unlike the Steelers, they’ve had next to no injuries this season. That’s been huge for them, after all the injuries they had last season. They ranked 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential in 2013, the last time they were healthy, and now they’re back up there, only with a better record. They also get linebacker Vontaze Burfict back from injury for this one. It’s tough to know how much he’ll be able to contribute in his first game back from microfracture surgery, but he was one of the best linebackers in the league before he got hurt, so his return is notable.

The Bengals are in a tough spot though, as they have to turn around and play Cleveland on a short week next week. Favorites are 41-66 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football. Cleveland isn’t that tough of an opponent, but neither is the Steelers’ upcoming opponent, the Oakland Raiders, and they don’t have to play them on a short week. I’m also not sure the Bengals really deserve to be favored here, even if only by a point.

They’re obviously a very good team, but so are the Steelers now that Roethlisberger is healthy. Not only do they now have an explosive offense again, like they did last season, their defense is much improved. They ranked 25th in rate of moving the chains differential in 2014, but have ranked 13th thus far this season, picking up the slack for the offense, though having breakout 2nd year defensive end Stephon Tuitt out for this one hurts. Still, they have a very good chance to hand the Bengals their first loss of the season. I just wouldn’t bet on it.

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Cincinnati Bengals 20 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +1

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New York Jets at Oakland Raiders: 2015 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 8 NFL Picks, Jets, NFL Picks, Raiders, Uncategorized

New York Jets (4-2) at Oakland Raiders (3-3)

Both of these teams have exceeded expectations this season, after being among the worst teams in the league last season. However, the Jets have been significantly better, ranking 4th in rate of moving the chains differential, while Oakland comes in 17th. Ryan Fitzpatrick has bounced back well from a broken leg that ended his 2014 season and has continued his surprisingly solid play from 2013 and 2014 in Tennessee and Houston, giving the Jets arguably the best quarterback they’ve had since Chad Pennington. Wide receivers Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker give him a pair of talented targets to throw to and running back Chris Ivory has broken out as a legitimate feature back. Meanwhile, a veteran offensive line has rolled back the clock a little bit and played very well.

Defensively, new head coach Todd Bowles has improved a defense that was already pretty solid to begin with, in large part due to big contributions from free agent acquisition cornerback Darrelle Revis and first round pick defensive end Leonard Williams. Last week, they led in the 4th quarter in New England, before eventually losing by a touchdown. Oakland is better on both sides of the ball this year too, thanks to rookie wide receiver (4th overall) Amari Cooper, free agent acquisition wide receiver Michael Crabtree, and much improved 2nd year quarterback Derek Carr on offense, and free agent acquisitions defensive tackle Dan Williams and outside linebacker Aldon Smith on defense. Williams and Smith lead a solid front 7 with holdovers defensive end Justin Tuck and outside linebacker Khalil Mack, both of whom have played better this year than last year.

Unfortunately, Tuck is now out for the year with injury, as of a few weeks ago. They were able to win in San Diego last week, in their first week without him, but their defense didn’t really play that well in that one, as they won on the strength of their offense. That’s going to be harder to do against the Jets, given that the Jets still rank 1st in rate of moving the chains differential after a trip to New England last week. The Raiders have barely had any injuries this season, so losing Tuck really hurts their defense. The Jets have some injuries of their own, as center Nick Mangold and safety Calvin Pryor are out for this one, which also definitely hurts, considering those players are both talented starters and considering they haven’t really had any injuries yet either. However, this line is still too low at 3.

The Jets are also in a better spot, as they’re in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 49-33 ATS as road favorites off a road loss since 2008, including 41-27 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 204-212 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.51 points per game, as opposed to 296-411 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.94 points per game. On top of that, they have an easier game than the Raiders do on deck, as they host the Jaguars, while the Raiders have to go to Pittsburgh. With the public all over the Jets, I don’t think there’s not quite enough here for me to put money on the Jets unless this line goes under a field goal, but they should be the right side.

New York Jets 19 Oakland Raiders 13

Pick against the spread: NY Jets -3

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]