Year: 2015

Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 7 NFL Picks, Dolphins, NFL Picks, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (2-4) at Miami Dolphins (2-3)

The Dolphins were the most disappointing team in the league for the first 4 weeks, going 1-3 (with one win on a punt return), and getting demolished by two divisional rivals, the Bills and the Jets, in games that were technically Miami home games. They used the week 5 bye to fire head coach Joe Philbin and install interim head coach Dan Campbell, previously the tight ends coach. Though Campbell has no head coaching or even coordinator experience, he seemed to do a good job with them in the transition period, as the Dolphins blew out the Titans 38-10 in Tennessee off of the bye last Sunday.

As a result, this line has shifted from 1.5 last week to 5 this week. Typically, I love to fade huge week-to-week line movements because they’re typically the result of overreactions to one week. This game will be no exception, as I think this line is way too high. The Dolphins still only rank 24th in rate of moving the chains differential. They’re probably more talented than that suggests, but they’re a deeply flawed team with major issues in the secondary and on the offensive line and also have a very inexperienced head coach and coaching staff.

The Texans have their own issues, but are playing much better of late, since switching back to Brian Hoyer at quarterback. Hoyer is Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked quarterback this season and Houston ranks 13th in rate of moving the chains differential. There’s no way the Dolphins should be favored by 5 here, especially given that the Dolphins are just 3-7 ATS at home favored by 3+ points since Ryan Tannehill arrived in 2012. They shouldn’t be getting more than 2 points for their homefield advantage, which means that you should only take the Dolphins if you think they’re at least 3 points better than the Texans. I don’t think they are.

The Dolphins are also in a horrific spot, having to turn around and face the Patriots 4 days after this one, as they go to Foxboro for Thursday Night Football next week. Teams are 51-90 ATS since 2010 before being underdogs of 10 or more (the early line is NE –10.5). That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you have a very tough game coming up that serves as a distraction. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. In this case, it’s more the first, but, as we’ve established, they’re not a great team either.

The Texans, meanwhile, host the Titans next week, a game in which they’ll definitely be favored in Houston. Favorites before being underdogs (like the Dolphins are) are 70-113 ATS when their opponent will next be favorites (like the Texans are) since 2010. Combining the two, favorites who will next be 10+ point underdogs are 19-47 ATS when their opponent will next be favorites since 1989. On top of that, the Dolphins are favorites before Thursday Night Football. Teams are 41-66 ATS in that spot since 2008. With arguably their hardest game of the season on deck, just 4 days after this one, I really don’t expect the Dolphins to be focused at all for the Texans.

The only edge the Dolphins have is in terms of these two respective team’s injury situations. The Texans will be missing starting cornerback Kareem Jackson and middle linebacker Benardrick McKinney for this one, though the former really hasn’t been playing that well this season. The Dolphins are just missing starting cornerback Brice McCain and he’s one of the worst starting cornerbacks in football. Still, I have no problem taking the Texans +5 as my Pick of the Week. The Dolphins will have trouble winning this one by more than a field goal.

Houston Texans 20 Miami Dolphins 17 Upset Pick +180

Pick against the spread: Houston +5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 7 NFL Picks, 49ers, NFL Picks, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (2-4) at San Francisco 49ers (2-4)

Who would have thought 6 weeks ago that these two teams would have the same record going into their week 7 Thursday Night matchup? These two teams were huge rivals a couple of years ago, but, while the 49ers have fallen apart in the past year, the Seahawks have stayed strong, making back-to-back Super Bowls. However, this year, they’ve won the same amount of games. It’s not that the 49ers have really exceeded expectations, as they’ve been just as bad as expected.

San Francisco finished last season 21st in rate of moving the chains differential and then lost head coach Jim Harbaugh, right tackle Anthony Davis, running back Frank Gore, left guard Mike Iupati, defensive end Justin Smith, defensive end Ray McDonald, outside linebacker Aldon Smith, outside linebacker Dan Skuta, middle linebacker Chris Borland, middle linebacker Patrick Willis, cornerback Perrish Cox, and cornerback Chris Culliver this off-season. Now they’re just 2-4 and rank dead last in rate of moving the chains differential.

The Seahawks also are 2-4, but the public seems to think they’re still the far better one between these two teams, backing them pretty heavily as 6.5 point road favorites. I agree with them. The Seahawks certainly have been a disappointing team this year, thanks largely to an offense that has been hamstrung by a horrendous offensive line and an injury to running back Marshawn Lynch, ranking 23rd in rate of moving the chains differential. However, that’s way better than the 49ers and the Seahawks have also faced a much tougher schedule, going to Green Bay, hosting Carolina, and going to Cincinnati. Despite that, 3 of their losses have come by a combined 10 points.

Is that enough to justify them being 6.5 point road favorites? I’m not necessarily sure, but they are in a good spot. While the Seahawks go to Dallas next week, where they’ll be 5.5 point favorites, the 49ers go to St. Louis, where they’ll be 6 point underdogs. Teams are 109-80 ATS since 2012 before being 4+ point road favorites (like the Seahawks will be) and 72-48 ATS before being 6+ point road favorites, while 6 point underdogs, like the 49ers are here, are 72-95 ATS since 2010 before being 6+ point underdogs again, as they will be next week. Better teams tend to cover as long as they don’t have a big distraction on the horizon, especially if the other team has another game that’ll be tough for them on tough. I wouldn’t put money on either side, but the Seahawks should be the right side.

Seattle Seahawks 23 San Francisco 49ers 14

Pick against the spread: Seattle -6.5

Confidence: Low

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Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 6 NFL Picks, Bears, Lions, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (2-3) at Detroit Lions (0-5)

Normally, I love fading significant line movements and the Lions went from being favored by 6 in the early line last week to just favored by 3 now. Detroit did get blown out by the Cardinals and Chicago did win in Kansas City last week, but beating the Jamaal Charles-less Chiefs isn’t a big accomplishment and Detroit didn’t get crushed in rate of moving the chains, moving them at a 72.09% rate, while the Cardinals moved them at a 77.78% rate, in a game that would have been a much different game by not for a fluky 6-0 win in the turnover battle by Arizona. Teams that lose the turnover battle by 6, on average, have a -0.4 turnover margin the following week, showing, once again, how inconsistent on a week-to-week basis something like turnover margin is. Home favorites are 55-39 ATS off of a game in which they lost the turnover margin by 4 or more since 1989.

However, I’m not confident in Detroit at all. They rank 27th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Bears rank 24th, actually better than the Lions. Chicago is also in a better injury situation, with wide receiver Alshon Jeffery and left tackle Jermon Bushrod running this week. Detroit’s offensive line is getting healthier with LaAdrian Waddle and Larry Warford both working their way back from early season injuries, though defensive tackle Haloti Ngata and outside linebacker DeAndre Levy will both be out for this one. I’m taking the Lions because they’re playing by far the easiest opponent they’ve faced thus far this season (San Diego, Minnesota, Denver, Seattle, Arizona) and because this line is probably too low, but I’m not confident at all.

Detroit Lions 24 Chicago Bears 20

Pick against the spread: Detroit -3

Confidence: None

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Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 6 NFL Picks, Jaguars, NFL Picks, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (1-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4)

Both of these two teams are 1-4, but the Texans are the better of the two teams. They have just one loss by more than a touchdown and rank 18th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Jaguars rank 30th. Despite that, the Jaguars are favored by 2 points, suggesting these teams are close to even. I disagree with that and I don’t think the Jaguars should be favored by 2 points over anyone other than a few awful teams (San Francisco and Tampa Bay come to mind).

The Jaguars also have to go to London next week to take on the Bills. Teams are just 6-16 ATS all-time before an international game. It’s a small sample size, but the trend makes a ton of sense. The Texans have to go to Miami next week, but that’s not that bad. The only reason I’m not putting money on the Texans is injuries, as they’ll be without talented outside linebacker Jadeveon Clowney with injury. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are getting healthy. While they have lost right guard Brandon Linder to injury and while they could be without running back TJ Yeldon in this one, cornerback Dwayne Gratz, safety John Cyprien, middle linebacker Paul Posluszny, defensive tackle Sen’Derrick Marks, left guard Luke Joeckel, and tight end Julius Thomas have all missed time with injury thus far this season and will all play this week. It’s not enough for me to be too worried about the Jaguars winning, but enough to stay away from making a higher confidence pick.

Houston Texans 16 Jacksonville Jaguars 13 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Houston +2

Confidence: Low

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Kansas City Chiefs at Minnesota Vikings: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 6 NFL Picks, Chiefs, NFL Picks, Uncategorized, Vikings

Kansas City Chiefs (1-4) at Minnesota Vikings (2-2)

The Vikings hard a weird start to their season, losing 20-3 week 1 in San Francisco in a really late game, giving the lowly 49ers their only win of the season. However, a team seen as a sneaky playoff contender before the season started, Minnesota has lived up to expectations over the past few weeks, beating Detroit and San Diego by double digits and then only losing by a field goal in Denver. They do rank just 20th in rate of moving the chains differential through their first 4 games, but they’re still being dragged down by what should prove to be a very fluky week 1 game. They’re a solid team that will compete for a playoff spot.

Despite that, they’re just 4 point favorites here over a Kansas City team that ranks 25th in rate of moving the chains differential, despite losing Jamaal Charles for the season to a torn ACL last week. Charles was such a big part of the offense, putting up big yardage on the ground and through the air and really being the guy they ran the offense through, because their passing game is still limited. Chancandrick West and Knile Davis aren’t the type of guys who can do that and represent a huge dropoff in talent behind Charles.

They should struggle to run the ball for the rest of the season, especially with a weak offensive line. They’ll have to pass move often, which is not what they want to do. They have no passing game weapons behind wide receiver Jeremy Maclin and tight end Travis Kelce, Alex Smith is a limited quarterback, and the offensive line isn’t giving Smith much time. The Chiefs are 1-4, getting worse, and won’t be much of a threat to anyone going forward. They shouldn’t be only be 4 point road underdogs in Minnesota, especially with Minnesota having an easy game in Detroit next week, though I can’t quite bring myself to put money on this because Minnesota is a heavy public lean and I don’t have a real trend supporting the Vikings.

Update: This line has dropped to 3.5. I’ll bite.

Minnesota Vikings 21 Kansas City Chiefs 13

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Arizona Cardinals: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 6 NFL Picks, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Steelers, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (4-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2)

The Steelers’ defense has been alright this year, a noticeable improvement over last season, but their offense hasn’t nearly as good. Last year, they ranked 3rd in rate of moving the chains, but barely had anyone miss any time. They haven’t been as fortunate this season. They get wide receiver Martavis Bryant this week for the first time this season, after missing 4 games with suspension and 1 game with injury, but they’re still missing center Maurkice Pouncey and especially missing quarterback Ben Roethlisberger with injuries. The Steelers moved the chains at a 78.65% rate in the first 3 games under Roethlisberger, but a mere 61.40% rate in the last 2 games, despite facing Baltimore and San Diego, two defenses that haven’t exactly been powerhouses thus far this season.

The drop off at quarterback from Ben Roethlisberger to Michael Vick has been close to as big of a drop off at the position as you can get, so bad that Jon Gruden actually suggested that Vick be benched for 3rd string quarterback Landry Jones, who has never even looked good in the pre-season, during last Monday’s night’s telecast, before Vick made some plays down the stretch. This isn’t surprising. Vick remained unsigned late into the off-season after being utterly ineffective in limited action last season, completing 52.9% of his passes for an average of 4.99 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th worst ranked quarterback, despite playing just 281 snaps. No one played fewer snaps than him and graded out worse. The Jets moved the chains at a pathetic 64.44% rate in the games in which he played at least 50% of the snaps, even worse than when Geno Smith played, when they moved them at a 69.18% rate.

The Steelers won in San Diego last week, but they shouldn’t have, considering they moved the chains at a 61.54% rate, as opposed to 72.22% for the Chargers. The Steelers had long touchdown on offense, a pick six by the Steelers’ defense, multiple dropped interceptions by the Chargers, and still only won at the last second. If a couple plays go a little bit differently, the Chargers probably win that game by 10 or more. However, that hasn’t quite caused the Steelers to be completely overvalued by the odds makers and the public like I would have liked, as the odds makers have moved this line from 2.5 in favor of Arizona to 4.5 in favor of Arizona in a week and the public is still all over the Cardinals.

That’s because Arizona is coming off of a resounding 42-17 victory in Detroit last week, certainly an impressive performance, but a final score that was largely aided by a +6 turnover margin. Turnover margins are very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. Teams that have a +6 turnover margin, on average, have a turnover margin of just +0.4 the following week. The Cardinals won’t be able to rely on the turnover margin in this one.

Fortunately, they’ve been a great team aside from turnovers all year. They rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, despite not being one of the NFL’s several remaining undefeated teams. Even in their loss, a 2 point home loss against the Rams, they won the moving the chains battle 71.05% to 66.67% and only lost because they lost the turnover margin by 3. That was a week before they won the turnover battle by 6, a lesson in just how inconsistent something like turnover margin can be on a week-to-week basis. The one knock on Arizona is they haven’t really played anyone (New Orleans, Chicago, San Francisco, St. Louis, Detroit), but Pittsburgh isn’t a very good team with Vick under center, especially considering Vick has covered in just 5 of his last 23 starts, despite last week’s fluky victory. I expect another big win by the Cardinals and I’m still comfortable putting money on them, but I still wish this line was lower.

Arizona is one of six road favorites this week, all six of whom the public really likes and, aside from the Atlanta/New Orleans Thursday Night Game, when I took the Saints and they covered, I’m taking all of the road favorites. I hate doing that, but 3 of them are in their 2nd straight road game (Arizona, New England, Denver) which helps, 2 of them are going into a bye (Denver, Cincinnati), which helps, and Baltimore is mere 2 point favorites over the lowly 49ers, who have a brutally tough home game against the Seahawks on deck. Arizona is the pick here and I hope for a rare, big losing weekend by the sportsbooks.

Arizona Cardinals 23 Pittsburgh Steelers 13

Pick against the spread: Arizona -4.5

Confidence: Medium

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Miami Dolphins at Tennessee Titans: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 6 NFL Picks, Dolphins, NFL Picks, Titans, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (1-3) at Tennessee Titans (1-3)

The Dolphins have been a massive disappointment through 4 games, after finishing 10th in rate of moving the chains differential in 2014 and seemingly getting better this off-season. They won in Washington, though only on a punt return touchdown, lost a close one in Jacksonville, who hasn’t beaten anyone else, and then got stomped by both Buffalo and the New York Jets, leading to the dismissal of head coach Joe Philbin, a move that was long overdue. Coming off a bye, with a much needed change at head coach, and with talented left tackle Branden Albert expected back from injury, the Dolphins should be much improved this week and, while they have major holes on the offensive line and in the secondary, they still have a good amount of talent, despite ranking 28th in rate of moving the chains differential.

That might not translate to a win this week though, as the Titans, while also 1-3, are a solid bunch. They blew out Tampa Bay by a score of 42-14, came within 2 points of beating the Colts, came within a point of Buffalo and, while they lost by 14 in Cleveland, the Browns only moved the chains at a 69.57% rate, as opposed to 67.65% for Tennessee. On the season, they rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential. They probably aren’t as good as that suggests, but it’s clear that they aren’t an easy team to beat. One of the worst teams in the league last season, the Titans are drastically improved on both sides of the ball this season and I like their chances of beating the Dolphins by at least 3 points and covering as 2.5 point home favorites here.

The reason I wouldn’t put money on the Titans is because they have to host the Falcons next week, while the Dolphins get to host the Texans. The Dolphins will definitely be favored in that game, while the Titans could easily be home underdogs when Atlanta comes to town, even after Atlanta was delivered their first loss of the season by the Saints on Thursday. If that still happens, it opens up a significant trend. Underdogs are 112-68 ATS since 2010 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, as teams tend to be more focused than their opponent in spots like that. Even if the Titans end up being favored next week, the logic behind the trend still makes sense. Tennessee is my pick, but I’m not that confident.

Tennessee Titans 20 Miami Dolphins 16

Pick against the spread: Tennessee -2.5

Confidence: Low

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Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 6 NFL Picks, Broncos, Browns, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (5-0) at Cleveland Browns (2-3)

The Broncos are 5-0, but are not a convincing 5-0, playing a schedule that hasn’t been that tough, Baltimore, Kansas City, Detroit, Minnesota, and Oakland and not pretty beating any of those teams with much ease. They rank just 12th in rate of moving the chains differential. Cleveland isn’t that good, but they’re not awful either, ranking 22nd in rate of moving the chains differential. They do have a solid chance to keep this one close and cover as 4.5 point home underdogs here.

However, I do expect the Broncos to be more focused than they’ve been all year in this one, ahead of a bye week.  I mentioned in the Packers/Chargers write up that 6+ point home favorites going into the bye are 59-19 ATS since 2002. The Broncos, unfortunately, are not at home for this one, but 3+ point road favorites are still 38-23 ATS going into a bye, for the same reason. It’s not as powerful of a trend as the other one, but the logic behind both is the same.

The Broncos are without outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware in this one, but they’ll plug in first round pick Shane Ray and the Browns will also be without cornerback Joe Haden and safety Tashaun Gipson. Neither of those two has been playing well, but those injuries definitely hurt their chances of turning their disappointing defense around this week. I’ll be going with the Broncos, but I’m not confident at all. As I mentioned, the Broncos haven’t played that well this season and the Browns could keep this close. On top of that, the Browns are in a good spot off of an overtime win as road underdogs. Teams are 34-23 ATS since 2002 in that spot. This won’t be easy for Denver.

Denver Broncos 19 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against the spread: Denver -4.5

Confidence: None

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New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 6 NFL Picks, Eagles, Giants, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

New York Giants (3-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-3)

The Eagles are favored here by 4.5 on Monday Night Football, pretty reasonable when you consider that the Eagles rank 11th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Giants rank 16th. However, the Giants are in such a great spot here, hosting a weakened Cowboys team in New York next week, while the Eagles have to go to Carolina to face a Panther team that is currently undefeated. The Giants will be favorites and the Eagles will be underdogs, the opposite of what we have here. Underdogs are 112-68 ATS since 2010 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs.

The Giants also typically travel well, at least they have since 2004, the start of the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era. They are 53-42 (45-50 ATS) at home since 2004 (the start of the Eli Manning/Tom Coughlin era), outscoring opponents by an average of 2.64 points per game, as opposed to 54-43 (59-38 ATS) on the road over that time period, outscoring opponents by an average of 0.04 points per game. They are also 12-5 ATS as divisional road favorites of 3.5+ points over that time period.

The Giants are pretty banged up, which is why this isn’t a higher confidence pick, but they’ve dealt with injuries all season and have been fine (as have the Eagles defensively, without middle linebacker Mychal Kendricks and Kiko Alonso). Left tackle William Beatty, defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul, and wide receiver Victor Cruz will all miss their 6th straight week to start the season. Cornerback Prince Amukamara adds to the injury list, as he’ll be out for a few weeks with a pectoral injury, but top pass rusher defensive end Robert Ayers returns from injury. Star wide receiver Odell Beckham hasn’t practiced all week, but is still expected to play on Monday Night, though he could be slowed after aggravating his nagging hamstring problems. I still like getting the 4.5 points with the Giants a lot.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 New York Giants 23

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +4.5

Confidence: Medium

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New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 6 NFL Picks, Colts, NFL Picks, Patriots, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (4-0) at Indianapolis Colts (3-2)

Normally, I love fading huge line movements, I can fade a heavy public lean in the process, as huge line movements are typically because of week-to-week overreactions. This game had one of those line movements, as the Colts have gone from being 5 point underdogs to 9.5 point underdogs in a week and the public is still all over New England. Nothing really happened in the past week that should have caused that. The Colts are coming off of arguably their best game of the season, as they were able to go into Houston and win with a backup quarterback, had 10 days off, and were able to get guys healthy.

Aside from defensive end Arthur Jones, who they haven’t had all season, they’re at full strength right now, after missing guys like cornerback Andrew Luck, cornerback Greg Toler, and cornerback Darius Butler with injury to start the season, while cornerback Vontae Davis and safety Mike Adams have also dealt with injuries. The Patriots, meanwhile, had a great win in Dallas, but that shouldn’t have been a surprise considering they were huge favorites off of a bye and they also lost left tackle Nate Solder for the season and will be without cornerback Tarell Brown in this one.

However, I really have no interest is going against New England in this one. This isn’t as talented of a team as they had last season, particularly in the secondary, but their pass rush is better and they still could be the best team in the NFL. After winning 13 of their last 14 meaningful games to end last season, they are 4-0, ranking 1st in rate of moving the chains differential, to start this season. They’ve also had no problem with Andrew Luck and Chuck Pagano, beating the Colts 4 straight times since those two showed up in Indianapolis in 2012, by an average of 29.00 points per game, though it’s worth noting that the Patriots have only been to Indianapolis once over those 4 games and the Colts are 18-9 ATS at home over that time period.

The Patriots are also in a good spot, as they are 9.5 point favorites over the Jets in New England in the early line for next week. Teams are 75-34 ATS since 2012 as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point favorites since 2012. The Colts also have a game in which they will probably be 6 point favorites on deck, as the Saints come to town next week, and 6+ point underdogs are 69-57 ATS before being 6+ point favorites over that same time period. That’s not as strong as the trend favoring the Patriots though, as favorites tend to do better than underdogs when they have manageable games on deck. It’s worth noting, but I still am taking the Patriots. It’s a no confidence pick though, as the Patriots are a heavily backed large road favorite in a place where it’s tough to win.

New England Patriots 34 Indianapolis Colts 24

Pick against the spread: New England -9.5

Confidence: None

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