Year: 2015

Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 6 NFL Picks, 49ers, NFL Picks, Ravens, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (1-4) at San Francisco 49ers (1-4)

The Ravens are a shocking 1-4 to start the season, but their 5 games have been decided by a combined 20 points, so they could easily be 2-3, 3-2, 4-1, even 0-5 or 5-0 if a few things had changed. They rank 26th in rate of moving the chains differential, but they ranked 3rd last season, so I still think they’re better their current rank. Sure, they’ve lost Torrey Smith, Pernell McPhee, Terrell Suggs, and Haloti Ngata and cornerback Jimmy Smith hasn’t played well at all in his return from a broken foot, but they still have a good amount of talent, they got left tackle Eugene Monroe back from an extended absence last week and Steve Smith returns this week to a receiving corps that desperately needs him, though wide receiver Breshad Perriman returns out and cornerback Lardarius Webb will join him there this week.

Still, they should be able to beat a San Francisco team that is legitimately bad. San Francisco finished last season 21st in rate of moving the chains differential and then lost head coach Jim Harbaugh, right tackle Anthony Davis, running back Frank Gore, left guard Mike Iupati, defensive end Justin Smith, defensive end Ray McDonald, outside linebacker Aldon Smith, outside linebacker Dan Skuta, middle linebacker Chris Borland, middle linebacker Patrick Willis, cornerback Perrish Cox, and cornerback Chris Culliver this off-season. As a result, they now rank dead last in rate of moving the chains differential and you’d be hard pressed to argue they aren’t one of the least talented teams in the league. They’re easily the easiest team the Ravens have faced. The Ravens almost knocked off Denver and Cincinnati and I still believe they’re good enough to win this game by at least a field goal. This line at 2 seems too low.

It helps the Ravens that the Seahawks are in an awful spot, with Seattle coming to town on Thursday. The early line has them as 6 point home underdogs, which is bad news for their chances this week. Teams are 38-76 ATS since 2012 before being 4+ point home underdogs, 20-50 ATS before being 6+ point home underdogs, and 13-29 ATS before being 7+ point home underdogs. As long as this line is under a field goal, I’m comfortable putting money on Baltimore, even though they’ve burned me in the past.

Baltimore Ravens 20 San Francisco 49ers 13

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -2

Confidence: Medium

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Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (4-0) at Seattle Seahawks (2-3)

The Seahawks have a well-documented homefield advantage, but I think it’s kind of too well-documented at this point, to the point where the Seahawks always get a ton of extra points at home. As a result, they are just 6-5 ATS in their last 11 home games, after going 15-5 ATS in their first 20 home games in the Russell Wilson era. This particular line here definitely seems to give the Seahawks a ton of respect at home, as they are 7 point favorites here over the 4-0 Panthers.

The Seahawks actually only rank 13th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the undefeated Panthers rank 8th. It’s not quite a fair comparison because the Seahawks have had tough road games in Cincinnati and Green Bay, against two of the best teams in the league, while the Panthers have had a much easier schedule (Jacksonville, Houston, New Orleans without Drew Brees, Tampa Bay), but this line is probably still be too high. Seattle gets running back Marshawn Lynch back from injury, but middle linebacker Luke Kuechly returns for Carolina and the Panthers are in better injury shape coming out of the bye, given that stud middle linebacker Bobby Wagner hasn’t practiced this week with a pectoral injury for Seattle.

The Seahawks are also in a couple bad spots. For one, they’re coming off of a road overtime loss, a tough one in Cincinnati, and teams are 62-93 ATS in that spot since 1989, unless they are road underdogs, which the Seahawks certainly aren’t. They also have to turn around and play a Thursday Night game and teams are 41-65 ATS as favorites before Thursday Night Football since 2008. It helps that their Thursday Night game will be in San Francisco, against a 49er team that is one of the worst in the league.

They are currently 6 point road favorites in that one on the early line. Teams are 108-77 ATS since 2010 before being 4+ point road favorites and 72-47 ATS since 2010 before being 6+ point road favorites. On top of that, 6+ point home favorites are 83-50 ATS before being 6+ point road favorites since 2002. The Panthers have a relatively easy game on deck, hosting the Eagles, but the Seahawks are easily in the better spot from that stand point. If you’re taking Carolina, you’re hoping that the Seahawks can’t handle playing a game in between a dejecting overtime loss and a Thursday Night game, even one in San Francisco against the lowly 49ers, and that the Panthers can handle tougher competition and that, worst case scenario, a touchdown is enough of a buffer. It’s enough for me to take the Panthers, but I’m not confident.

Seattle Seahawks 17 Carolina Panthers 13

Pick against the spread: Carolina +7

Confidence: Low

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Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (5-0) at Buffalo Bills (3-2)

Ordinarily, I love fading significant line movements because they’re usually overreactions to one week of action and this line moved from Buffalo being favored by 1.5 to now being home underdogs of a field goal. That’s significant. However, I still like the Bengals this week, even with the public all over them. I think that line movement was legitimate and that it was a bad line in the first place. The 5-0 Bengals are a legitimate top contender, ranking 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential, thanks to significantly improved health on both sides of the ball. The Bills, meanwhile, only rank 20th.

The other reason this line is legitimate is because the Bills are expected to be without Tyrod Taylor, who has been a huge boost to this offense this season, likely  forcing them to go back to EJ Manuel, who has never been good outside of the pre-season and who will be a big downgrade from Taylor. The Bills are getting healthier around the quarterback on offense, with Sammy Watkins and LeSean McCoy coming back, though the latter has struggled with hamstring problems all year and might not be a big boost to a struggling running game. Their only good running back this season has been rookie Karlos Williams, who is once again out with a concussion. The Bills will miss him and Taylor in this one against what I mentioned is an almost completely healthy Bengals team.

It also helps the Bengals that they’re going into a bye and good teams tend to cover pretty easily going into a bye. I mentioned in the Packers/Chargers write up that 6+ point home favorites going into the bye are 59-19 ATS since 2002. The Bengals, unfortunately, are not at home for this one, but 3+ point road favorites are still 38-23 ATS going into a bye, for the same reason. It’s not as powerful of a trend as the other one, but the logic behind both is the same. The Bills, meanwhile, have the opposite of a bye on deck, as they have to pack up and go to London to face the Jaguars. Teams are just 6-16 ATS all-time before an international game. It’s a small sample size, but the trend makes a ton of sense. I’ll leave this as a low confidence pick for now, but when Taylor is officially ruled out (he’s listed as questionable, but no one is buying it), I’ll move it up to medium and put money on it, unless the line moves above 4.

Update: Taylor won’t be playing. I’d put money on Cincinnati -3.

Cincinnati Bengals 20 Buffalo Bills 13

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -3

Confidence: Medium

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Washington Redskins at New York Jets: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Washington Redskins (2-3) at New York Jets (3-1)

The Jets have been pleasantly surprising to start the season. They beat Cleveland, Indianapolis, and Miami pretty convincingly, though they did lose at home to the Eagles. Still, a 3-1 record with impressive victories is a pleasant surprise for a team that wasn’t expected to do much this season. Ryan Fitzpatrick has bounced back well from a broken leg that ended his 2014 season and has continued his surprisingly solid play from 2013 and 2014 in Tennessee and Houston, giving the Jets arguably the best quarterback they’ve had since Chad Pennington. Wide receivers Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker give him a pair of solid targets to throw to and running back Chris Ivory has broken out as a legitimate feature back. Meanwhile, a veteran offensive line has rolled back the clock a little bit and played very well.

Defensively, new head coach Todd Bowles has improved a defense that was already pretty solid to begin with, in large part due to big contributions from free agent acquisition cornerback Darrelle Revis and first round pick defensive end Leonard Williams. The Jets also get defensive end Sheldon Richardson, one of the best defensive players in the game in 2013 and 2014, back from a 4 game suspension this week, though it’s unclear how they’ll split up playing time between all their talented defensive linemen. Williams has played too well in Richardson’s absence to be a mere backup, but Muhammad Wilkerson is still dominant on the other side, while nose tackle Damon Harrison is equally established inside at nose tackle. It’s a good problem to have, but one the Jets will still have to manage properly. Overall, the Jets rank 4th in rate of moving the chains differential. It’d still be hard to argue that they’re a top-4 team or anything like that, but they’re definitely a playoff contender and it’s clear that they’re here to stay as a threat.

The Redskins, however, have also been equally surprisingly good, but you can’t really tell by their record, as they stand at 2-3. Still, they’ve been St. Louis pretty easily and also beat Philadelphia, while two of their losses were a return touchdown away from being completely different games, including a game in Atlanta last week where they took the then undefeated Falcons to overtime, only to lose on a pick six. A loss in New York to the Giants by 11 on a short week has been their only bad loss to date. Kirk Cousins hasn’t been great or anything, but he’s been serviceable, even with wide receiver DeSean Jackson going down with a severe hamstring injury week 1. Jackson could be back this week, but, just as he’s getting healthy, tight end Jordan Reed, such a big part of their offense with Jackson out, will miss his 2nd straight game with a concussion this week and is out indefinitely. On top of that, stud left tackle Trent Williams has been ruled out for this one.

The defense is where the Redskins have made their biggest improvement, despite starting cornerbacks DeAngelo Hall and Chris Culliver missing time with injury. Both will once again be out this week. New defensive coordinator Joe Barry has done a good job, 2nd year cornerback Bashaud Breeland has been massively improved and been a huge asset with injuries at that position, while the front 7 is dominant, led by budding superstar Ryan Kerrigan, along with talented 2nd year player Trent Murphy, veteran holdovers Jason Hatcher and Chris Baker, and free agent acquisitions Stephen Paea, Terrance Knighton, and Ricky Jean Francois. Despite injuries, they rank 8th in rate of moving the chains allowed, significantly improved from last season. Their defense has been able to cover for a lackluster offense and they rank 9th in rate of moving the chains differential as a result. Like the Jets, it’s hard to argue that they’re actually as good as how they rank in that statistic, but, like the Jets, I think it’s clear that they’re here to stay as a threat.

The Redskins are also in a way better spot, as they have arguably the easiest game of their season, a home game against Tampa Bay, on deck, while the Jets have arguably their toughest game on deck, a trip to New England. The Jets will be rested off of a bye, which helps, but I think we’re going to have two different levels of focus for this game and history supports that theory. Underdogs are 112-68 ATS since 2010 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, while 6+ point favorites like the Jets are here are 48-83 ATS since 2002 before being 6+ point underdogs (the Jets are currently -9.5 in New England in the early line).

The Redskins are “only” 5 point favorites at home for Tampa Bay next week, but that could easily move to 6, while the Jets’ line could easily move to 10. If that happens, that opens up even more powerful trends. Teams are just 51-90 ATS before being 10+ point underdogs since 2010, while that 6 and 6 trend I mentioned earlier works the other way too. Teams are 69-57 ATS since 2002 as 6+ point underdogs before being 6+ point favorites, including 12-5 ATS since 1989 when their opponent will next be 6+ point underdogs. Even if those lines don’t move a little bit, the logic behind those trends still holds. This is one of the worst spots a team can be in.

Some might think it’ll be tough for the Redskins to bounce back off of a road overtime loss, that aforementioned game in Atlanta last week, and ordinarily that would be true, but it really helps that the Redskins are in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 119-85 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 97-58 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 200-207 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.43 points per game, as opposed to 293-404 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.95 points per game. That should nullify any effect of the Redskins’ overtime road loss last week, as teams are 18-17 ATS as road underdogs off of a road loss in overtime since 1989, as long as it’s their 2nd of two road games,.

The Redskins’ injuries caused me to switch this from being my Pick of the Week, but I still think they’re the right side for a high confidence pick. They’re banged up and clearly the less talented of these two teams going into this one, but they’re in by far the better spot and they have a touchdown of buffer room to work with as 7 point underdogs. Especially with the public taking the Jets pretty decisively, I’m confident in the Redskins to cover this week.

New York Jets 20 Washington Redskins 19

Pick against the spread: Washington +7

Confidence: High

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San Diego Chargers at Green Bay Packers: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

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San Diego Chargers (2-3) at Green Bay Packers (5-0)

I write about the Packers’ home dominance every week they play at home and there’s a good reason for that. As long as Aaron Rodgers starts (minus any games he’s been knocked out very early with injuries), the Packers are 30-11-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 38-4 straight up, with an absurd +603 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 14.36 points per game. This is well documented though, so we typically don’t get much line value with them at home, but they’ve still managed to cover 9 of their last 11.

I think they’re going to make it 10 of 12 this week, even though they’re favored by 10.5 points. San Diego is a solid team when they’re healthy, but they’re far from it right now. They’re expected to be without 3 starters on the offensive line for the 3rd straight week, including left tackle King Dunlap and left guard Orlando Franklin, their two best offensive linemen. On top of that, replacement left tackle Chris Hairston is expected to be out, while right guard DJ Fluker has been dealing with an ankle problem all year. They won two weeks ago with a patchwork offensive line, but that was at home against a Cleveland defense that hasn’t really been able to stop anyone this season. They should have won last week against Pittsburgh, but that was more the result of Pittsburgh’s inept quarterback play than anything San Diego’s offensive line did well. Philip Rivers is a good quarterback, but he was under siege all day and that was against a Pittsburgh pass rush that isn’t nearly as good as Green Bay’s.

Green Bay’s offense isn’t quite what it was last season, partially due to injuries in the receiving corps, but they’re still a very good offense and the defense is much improved. They rank “just” 5th in rate of moving the chains differential, but I think they’re still arguably the most talented and most complete team in the NFL. Considering, on average, they win by two touchdowns at home, they should have no problem making this another blowout in Lambeau, especially with a bye week on deck. Teams are 59-19 ATS as 6+ point home favorites going into a bye since 2002, which makes sense, as good teams with no upcoming distractions tend to take care of business. I know it’s boring, but the Packers at home are my Pick of the Week for the 2nd straight week.

Green Bay Packers 34 San Diego Chargers 17

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -10.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 6 NFL Picks, Falcons, NFL Picks, Saints, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (5-0) at New Orleans Saints (1-4)

The Falcons won at home last week against the Redskins in overtime on a pick six, but the fact that the Falcons had to go to overtime really hurts them this week, as they go on the road on a short week to play the Saints in New Orleans on Thursday Night Football. Unsurprisingly, teams are 4-19 ATS since 1989 on Thursday Night Football after an overtime game, including 2-14 ATS on the road, 1-13 ATS on the road after a home game, and 0-6 ATS as road favorites. All of those are small sample sizes, but it makes sense. That sequence is just so draining.

One of the most obvious negative effects of the situation is the fact that Julio Jones could be on a snap count. Jones has been dealing with a hamstring problem all year and, while he’s still played very well overall on the season, he hasn’t been quite as good over the past 2 weeks, catching 9 passes for 105 yards and 0 touchdowns, as opposed to a ridiculous 34 catches for 440 yards and 4 touchdowns in the first 3 games of the season. Playing well 3 days after an overtime game is going to be tough, even for him, and the Falcons’ weapons in the passing game after him (Roddy White, Leonard Hankerson, Jacob Tamme) are underwhelming. Despite that, the public is all over the Falcons as mere 3.5 point favorites here. This line might seem low, but the Falcons aren’t quite as good as their 5-0 record. They haven’t really played anyone good yet and, while the Saints aren’t exactly good, the Falcons have played close games with the Eagles, Giants, and Redskins and could easily have trouble with New Orleans this week on a short week, off of an overtime game.

All that being said, I wouldn’t put money on the Saints for a few reasons. For one, they’re missing significant guys with injury as well, particularly on offense, where left tackle Terron Armstead, left guard Tom DeLito, and wide receiver Marques Colston are all out. Defensively, cornerback Damian Swann is out, while defensive end Bobby Richardson is highly questionable after not practicing all week.  The Falcons have a couple guys out too, outside linebacker Justin Durant and center Mike Person, but the guys the Saints are missing are far more important, particularly Armstead. Armstead has been one of the best left tackles in the league this year when healthy and the Saints couldn’t pass protect at all last week against Philadelphia without him. On top of that, the Saints do have a harder game than the Falcons do on deck, as they have to go to Indianapolis, while Atlanta goes to Tennessee. That could provide a little bit more of a distraction and make it a little harder to focus this week, though those games are 10 days off and this is such a big rivalry that it could easily not matter.

At this point last year, I definitely would have put money on the Saints. There was a point last year where they had won 20 straight home games (18-1-1 ATS) and went 20-2 ATS off of a loss (with Drew Brees and Sean Payton) since 2008, including 12-1 ATS at home off of a loss. However, since then, they’re just 1-6 ATS at home, 5-6 ATS off of a loss, and 3-4 ATS at home off of a loss, so those trends have certainly lost some luster. I still think the Saints are the right side, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Atlanta Falcons 24 New Orleans Saints 23

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +3.5

Confidence: Low

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New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles: 2015 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) at New Orleans Saints (1-3)

Chip Kelly did everything he could to put his stamp on the Eagles this off-season, changing just about everything. They swapped quarterbacks with the Rams, trading Nick Foles for Sam Bradford. They sent running back LeSean McCoy to Buffalo for middle linebacker Kiko Alonso and added both DeMarco Murray and Ryan Matthews to replace McCoy. They got rid of veteran guards Evan Mathis and Todd Herremans, even though Mathis had a great 2014, and let Jeremy Maclin sign with the Eagles, opting to replace him with 1st round rookie Nelson Agholor. On defense, veteran linebacker Trent Cole was let go, despite a strong 2014, and the Eagles re-signed the younger Brandon Graham to be their primary rush linebacker. Plus, their top-3 cornerbacks, Cary Williams, Bradley Fletcher, and Brandon Boykin are all gone, as is safety Nate Allen. Instead, they’re secondary consists of big free agent acquisition Byron Maxwell and a bunch of spare parts and rookies.

The results really haven’t been good. A 10-6 team in both 2013 and 2014, the Eagles have started 1-3 and rank 22nd in rate of moving the chains differential. The defense has been good, ranking 7th in rate of moving the chains allowed, thanks to a strong front 7, but their secondary has been a problem, as Maxwell ranks as Pro Football Focus’ 9th worst ranked cornerback 4 games into a 6-year, 63 million dollar deal. The offense, meanwhile, has been a disaster, as they rank 29th in rate of moving the chains. Sam Bradford has been a clear downgrade from Foles and they’ve struggled to get anything going on the ground with either of their new running backs, thanks largely to poor offensive line play. On top of that, the Eagles will be missing both middle linebackers Kiko Alonso and Mychal Kendricks with injury in this one, which hurts. The Saints will be missing talented left tackle Terron Armstead for this one and I wouldn’t put any money on them, especially since they’re not a good road team and they have to host the Falcons in like 3 days on Thursday Night Football, but they rank 16th in rate of moving the chains differential and should be able to cover here as 5 point underdogs.

Philadelphia Eagles 23 New Orleans Saints 20

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +5

Confidence: Low

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San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants: 2015 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 5 NFL Picks, 49ers, Giants, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (1-3) at New York Giants (2-2)

The Giants have rebounded from an 0-2 start, winning the last two games and putting themselves in good position to win the wide open NFC East. Some are even pointing out that the Giants could easily be 4-0, which is true, as their losses to Atlanta and Dallas were both close, but they certainly haven’t played like a 4-0 team, ranking 19th in rate of moving the chains differential. This team does a lot of good things, but they’re missing too many key contributors with injury (William Beatty, Jason Pierre-Paul, Victor Cruz, Robert Ayers) to be a good team. They’ve been overly reliant on a +6 turnover margin, which is something that’s hard to count on in any given week.

The Giants are coming off the most impressive game of their season, a 24-10 win in Buffalo against a Bills team that was considered pretty good going into the game, but now they return home and they’ve never had much of a homefield advantage in the Eli Manning/Tom Coughlin era, dating back to 2004. They are 52-42 (45-49 ATS) at home since 2004 (the start of the Eli Manning/Tom Coughlin era), outscoring opponents by an average of 2.64 points per game, as opposed to 54-43 (59-38 ATS) on the road over that time period, outscoring opponents by an average of 0.04 points per game. The 49ers also have a huge advantage because they’re a West Coast team at night playing an East Coast team. Teams tend to cover the spread about 65% of the time in that situation because, while this is essentially a late afternoon game for the 49ers, it’s a late night game for the Giants.

All of that being said, I’m going with the Giants here. The 49ers are awful, one of the worst teams in the NFL, after all of their off-season losses. They’ve lost their last 3 games by a combined 79 points, after a random week 1 home win 20-3 over a solid Vikings team. Despite that fluky week 1 win, they’re still 31st in rate of moving the chains differential. The Giants aren’t great and don’t have a great homefield advantage, especially at night against a West Coast team, but this line is still more than reasonable. I’m not confident, but they should be the right side.

New York Giants 27 San Francisco 49ers 17

Pick against the spread: NY Giants -7

Confidence: None

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Chicago Bears at Kansas City Chiefs: 2015 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (1-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-3)

The Chiefs are only 1-3, but it’s hard to blame them considering their last 3 games have all come against undefeated teams (Denver, Green Bay, and Kansas City) and they have been pretty competitive in all 3 games. The only easy game they’ve had this year was in Houston, where they won by a touchdown. That doesn’t sound terribly impressive, but that game wasn’t close until garbage time and getting a convincing win on the road, no matter who the opponent is, is still an accomplishment.

This week they get a pretty easy opponent again, the Chicago Bears, who rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential. That’s not too much worse than the Chiefs, who rank 23rd, but the Chiefs’ schedule has been a big factor in that. Besides, the Bears are incredibly banged up. They got Jay Cutler back from injury last week and he was a massive upgrade over the incompetent Jimmy Clausen, a big factor in them getting their first win of the season at home against the Raiders, but wide receiver Alshon Jeffery, wide receiver Eddie Royal, offensive tackle Jermon Bushrod, safety Antrel Rolle, and possibly outside linebacker Pernell McPhee (arguably their best player on either side of the ball) are all expected to miss this one. Kansas City, meanwhile, is basically at 100%, especially with top cornerback Sean Smith in his 2nd game back, after missing the start of the season with a suspension.

Despite that, this line isn’t that high at 9. In fact, the line has shifted from 12 to 9 from last week to this week and the public is still on Chicago, a rare instance of the public being on an underdog. I love fading huge week-to-week line movements because they’re typically an overreaction to a single week’s action, in this case, a Kansas City loss on the road against a good Cincinnati team and a last second Chicago home win over the mediocre Raiders. I also love fading the public whenever it makes sense, as they always lose money in the long run. In this case, I’ll happily fade the line movement and the public and take the Chiefs.

The Bears are also in a bad spot, with a trip to Detroit, where they are expected to be 6 point underdogs, on deck. Teams are 39-59 ATS since 2012 as 6+ point underdogs before being 6+ point underdogs, as it’s tough for an inferior team to concentrate with another tough game on deck. The Chiefs do also have a tough game next week, as they’re expected to be 3 point underdogs in Minnesota (though they don’t have the same kind of trend working against them), and Detroit, while better than their record, isn’t a great team by any stretch of the imagination so that line could move under 6. For that reason, I don’t think there’s enough here for me to feel confident putting money on Kansas City, but I do think they should be the right side and that they should win by a comfortable amount.

Kansas City Chiefs 26 Chicago Bears 13

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -9

Confidence: Low

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Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions: 2015 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (3-1) at Detroit Lions (0-4)

The Lions are the league’s last remaining winless team at 0-4. Many think they should have won last week in Seattle because the refs missed a pivotal call at the end of the game, but, regardless of the outcome, they definitely got outplayed in Seattle last week, needing to rely on a +2 turnover margin and a return touchdown to even keep it close. They moved the chains at a mere 54.55% rate, while the Seahawks moved them at a 67.86% rate. On the season, they rank 24th in rate of moving the chains differential.

That suggests they’re not quite as bad as their record suggests and they’re not, especially when you take into account the brutal schedule they’ve played thus far. They started the year on the road in San Diego and Minnesota, a pair of possible playoff teams, and then week 3, when they finally got a home game, it was against Denver, another strong team. Starting the season with two road games puts a team at a serious disadvantage, not because it makes it hard to build momentum, but because teams that have their home opener week 3 usually don’t play that well that week. They cover the spread only about a third of the time and are generally less energized, as a result of all of the travelling they have to do to start the season. And then, of course, Detroit had to go to Seattle last week, one of the toughest places in the NFL to win.

Given all of that, I don’t think the Lions are going to be one of the worst teams in the league all season. They also get key defensive player DeAndre Levy back this week, after he missed the first 4 games of the season with a hip injury, and right guard Larry Warford is also expected to play, after being limited to 97 snaps thus far this season with injury. It’s not all good in injury land, as starting defensive tackles Haloti Ngata and Tyrunn Walker will both miss this week, Ngata with a week-to-week injury and Walker after being put on injured reserve with a broken ankle last week, ending his season. However, Levy returning is the biggest deal out of all of those injury developments. Things are looking up for the Lions overall.

That being said, they’re probably going to have to wait another week to get their first win, as they once again face a very tough opponent, the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals lost their first game of the season last week, at home against St. Louis, but they did win the first down battle 26 to 13 and move the chains at a higher rate than the Rams in that 2 point loss, so they definitely didn’t play badly. They only lost because they lost the turnover battle by 3 and that tends to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. Teams with a turnover margin of -3 in a game, on average, have a turnover margin of -0.1 the following week, so the Lions won’t be able to count on turnovers to help them win this game, even after winning the turnover battle in Seattle last week.

The Cardinals still rank 1st in rate of moving the chains differential, even after last week’s loss, but it’s important to remember that their schedule has been the opposite of Detroit’s, as they’ve faced New Orleans, Chicago, San Francisco, and St. Louis. There’s a good chance that, even without any wins, the Lions are the best team they’ve faced thus far. Still, if I had to pick, I’m taking the Cardinals against the spread as 3.5 point road favorites here, though I’m not confident at all, especially with the public all over Arizona. The Lions should be able to get off the snide next week, when they host Chicago. The Lions are in a good spot with no upcoming distractions, ahead of that easy game against the Bears, but the Cardinals also are, as they head to Pittsburgh next week to take on the Ben Roethlisberger-less Steelers, and, like I said, if I have to pick, the Cardinals should be the right side.

Arizona Cardinals 24 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against the spread: Arizona +3.5

Confidence: None

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