Month: September 2016

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears: 2016 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 2 NFL Picks, Bears, Eagles, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) at Chicago Bears (0-1)

Coming into the season, I thought the Eagles were one of the most underrated teams in the league. Even after trading Sam Bradford to the Vikings, their 3.5 point week 1 line at home against the Browns didn’t make any sense and neither did their 6.5 win over/under for the season. They’re starting a rookie quarterback and don’t have a ton of offensive skill position talent around him, but they have a strong offensive line, especially while Lane Johnson remains unsuspended, and a defense that should take a big step forward under new defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, who is one of the best in the game. They have a talented defense, especially in the front 7, but always perennially underachieved under Chip Kelly hire Billy Davis.

The Eagles looked good in a week 1 29-10 victory over the Browns, but they remain underrated as the public is unimpressed by a team beating the Browns. The Browns are a very weak opponent, but a 19-point win is nothing to scoff at and I think we’re getting great value with them this week as 3.5 point underdogs in Chicago. One in 4 games are decided by 3 or fewer points and the Eagles have a good chance to win straight up, even without talented tight end Zach Ertz, against a Chicago team that isn’t that good, especially without top pass rusher Pernell McPhee. It’s a big play on the Eagles if you can get -3.5. If you can’t, I’d suggest paying to get it if you can get it at -125 or better. The money line at +150 is a nice value too. This game is at best a toss up.

Chicago Bears 24 Philadelphia Eagles 23

Pick against the Spread: Philadelphia +3.5

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers: 2016 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 2 NFL Picks, Chargers, Jaguars, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) at San Diego Chargers (0-1)

Before the season started, the Chargers were one of the teams I expected to have a significant jump in wins this season, after winning just 4 in 2015. That theory was based on the assumptions that the Chargers would have better luck both in winning close games and avoiding injury, two things that tend to be pretty unpredictable from season to season. Sure enough, the Chargers opened the season by blowing a 21 point lead in Kansas City and losing by 6 in overtime, after losing star wide receiver Keenan Allen for the season with a torn ACL mid-game.

The Chargers’ luck in close games still figures to improve going forward (they’re 3-10 in games decided by 8 points or fewer over the past 2 seasons), but Allen is a massive loss for this team. The Chargers moved the chains at a 76.49% rate when Allen was healthy last season, as opposed to 67.23% when he was out of the lineup. Injuries remain a problem for them, as Allen joins 2016 #3 overall pick Joey Bosa and #3 wide receiver Steve Johnson on the sideline. Bosa remains out with a hamstring issue and has yet to practice, following a long holdout, while Johnson is out for the year with a knee injury. Tyrell Williams, a 2015 undrafted free agent with 4 career catches, will have to play a big role in the passing game now, as the #2 receiver opposite free agent acquisition Travis Benjamin.

The Jaguars are missing a pair of starters, cornerback Prince Amukamara and running back Chris Ivory, but the Chargers are still missing more players and more important players. I had the Chargers as better than the Jaguars coming into the season, but these two teams are about even now. On top of that, the Chargers near win in Kansas City could make it tough for them to give their best effort this week, as teams understandably are flat off of close road overtime losses, as long as they aren’t road underdogs the following week. Road underdogs tend to do well off of a road loss, so that cancels out. The Chargers are home favorites here though and teams that are not road underdogs are just 30-60 ATS off of a road overtime loss since 2002.

The Chargers also seem to have next to no homefield advantage, going 5-11 ATS at home since 2014, as opposed to 6-11 ATS on the road. That’s probably a big part of the reason why they’re considering moving up the road to Los Angeles in the near future, though it’s unclear if doing so would actually improve their home crowds. There’s not quite enough here for me to put money on Jacksonville, but I like getting the full field goal with them. If the line were to move to 3.5 by game time, I’d consider putting money on them because I think there’s a good chance this is a field goal game (1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal).

San Diego Chargers 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 23

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +3

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers: 2016 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 2 NFL Picks, 49ers, NFL Picks, Panthers, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (1-0) at Carolina Panthers (0-1)

The 49ers technically pulled the upset victory at home as 2.5 point underdogs against the Rams last week, but that shouldn’t really be considered an upset as the Rams are just as bad as the 49ers are, probably even worse if last week was any indication. That doesn’t necessarily mean the 49ers are good though and there’s little reason to believe they’re significantly improved from the 2015 team that finished dead last in rate of moving the chains differential and lost 11 games by an average of 16.45 points per loss. The Panthers are still one of the best teams in the league, despite losing in a tough spot last week against the Broncos in the week 1 home opener for the defending Super Bowl champions. They should have no problem winning by at least two touchdowns here.

The 49ers’ home upset loss last week puts them in a bad spot here, as teams are just 48-74 ATS since 2012 off of a win as home underdogs, including 31-48 ATS when they are underdogs again. That makes sense, as teams might not be 100% focused off of a big home victory like that. On top of that, the 49ers have to turn around and play the Seahawks next week, a game in which they figure to be home underdogs of at least a touchdown, which puts them in an even tougher spot. Teams are 24-59 ATS since 2010 before being home underdogs of 7 or more. On top of that, underdogs of 7 or more are 14-34 ATS since 2002 before being home underdogs of 7 or more.

The 49ers probably won’t overlook a great team like the Panthers, but it’s very possible they have less than their best game coming off a huge upset win, with another tough game on deck. Last week is one that I think we’ll look back on as their best game of the season, much like last year’s Monday night home opener, in which they won 20-3 against a Minnesota team that ended up making the playoffs. They followed that up by losing 43-18 in Pittsburgh the following week. Teams do tend to carryover the momentum from a huge Monday Night win into the following week, as teams who win by 21+ on Monday Night Football are 34-15 ATS the following week since 2002. That’s the only reason this isn’t my Pick of the Week, but I have a hard time seeing this not being a blowout. The Panthers are the obvious Survivor Pick this week.

Carolina Panthers 34 San Francisco 49ers 12

Pick against the spread: Carolina -13

Confidence: High

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2016 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 2 NFL Picks, Bengals, NFL Picks, Steelers, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (1-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0)

The Steelers got a huge 38-16 win in Washington on Monday Night Football week 1, led by an offense that moved the chains at an 82.35% rate. They seem to have picked up right where they left off last season when Ben Roethlisberger was healthy. In his 12 starts last season, the Steelers moved the chains at a 75.00% rate, which would have been 5th best in the league over the whole season. Add in a solid defense and they’re a very formidable opponent once again this season. On top of that, teams tend to carryover the momentum from a big Monday Night win into the following week, as teams who win by 21+ on Monday Night Football are 34-15 ATS the following week since 2002.

Despite that, they’re favored by just a field goal here at home. The Bengals were one of the better teams in the league last season, especially before Andy Dalton went down for the season with a broken thumb week 14, but are not the same team this season. They lost two of their top-3 wide receivers (Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu) in free agency, as well as a pair of starters in the secondary (Leon Hall and Reggie Nelson). On top of that, they’re without talented tight end Tyler Eifert, talented linebacker Vontaze Burfict, first round pick William Jackson, and fourth round pick Andrew Billings with injury, after barely having any injuries outside of the quarterback position last year.

This line suggests these two teams are even. I disagree. I think the Steelers are better by a significant amount and, in a great spot coming off of a huge Monday Night Football win, are likely to win by a field goal or more. As long as this line is right at a field goal, this is my Pick of the Week. In some places, this line is 3.5. I’d still put money on 3.5, but it’d be a smaller play considering how many games are decided by exactly a field goal (1 in 6). I’d suggest paying to get -3 if you can get it at -125 or better.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Cincinnati Bengals 17

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh -3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins: 2016 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 2 NFL Picks, Commanders, Cowboys, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (0-1) at Washington Redskins (0-1)

The Cowboys lost a very close one at home last week to the Giants, losing 20-19 in a game in which they actually moved the chains at a better rate than their opponents (78.13% to 77.78%). The Cowboys have not had much homefield advantage for several years and have been much better at covering on the road than at home. They are 15-34 ATS at home since 2010, including 8-26 ATS as home favorites, as opposed to 27-21 ATS on the road, including 19-12 ATS as road underdogs, as they are here (8-4 ATS as road divisional underdogs). That makes sense, as the Cowboys have fans scattered around the country and normally have many of their own fans in attendance at road games.

The Cowboys are also in a much better spot than the Redskins are this week. Next week, the Cowboys host the lowly Bears, while the Redskins have to turn around and head to New York for another divisional game against the Giants, this time a game in which they’ll be underdogs. Favorites are just 56-80 ATS since 2012 when their opponents will next be favorites. On top of that, divisional home favorites like the Redskins are just 22-61 ATS since 2002 before being divisional road favorites. The Redskins, fresh off of a terrible performance on Monday Night Football against the Steelers, might look past this “easier” game with a road divisional game on deck. As long as we’re getting the full field goal with them, I like the Cowboys’ chances of covering and pulling the upset. This is a big play.

Dallas Cowboys 27 New York Giants 24 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Dallas +3

Confidence: High

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills: 2016 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 2 NFL Picks, Bills, Jets, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

New York Jets (0-1) at Buffalo Bills (0-1)

One of my favorite things to do as a bettor is go against week-to-week overreactions, so I always check to see how much the line has changed since the early line the previous week. Sometimes big line movements make sense, but often they don’t. In this game, the home team Buffalo Bills have gone from field goal favorites to now home underdogs, though they’re only home underdogs of 1.5 points. I wish we were getting at least a field goal the other way, because I like the Bills’ chances of at least keeping it within a field goal, but I still like their chances of winning straight up as well.

I disagree with this line movement. The Jets looked better than the Bills last week, but It’s still very early in the season and I had these two teams about even coming into the season. Of course, the Bills are at less than 100% injury wise, with talented left tackle Cordy Glenn now joining first and second round picks Shaq Lawson and Reggie Ragland on the sideline and Sammy Watkins playing through foot discomfort after off-season surgery. For that reason, I couldn’t put any money on the Bills without the full field goal, but I think they should be considered the favorites to win this game in their home opener. If you have to bet something in this game, bet the money line at +105 since this game looks like at least a toss up at worst.

Buffalo Bills 19 New York Jets 17 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Buffalo +1.5

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Green Bay Packers at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 1 NFL Picks, Jaguars, NFL Picks, Packers, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (0-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0)

The Packers are normally a much better team at home than on the road, but I actually like them on the road this week, as 5.5 point favorites in Jacksonville. Jacksonville is improved, but is likely still at least a year away and they could have easily been at least 7-point underdogs here. I think people might forget how good Green Bay’s offense was in 2014. They’re unlikely to be that good again, but all of their skill position talent is healthy, including the Aaron Rodgers/Jordy Nelson combination that was so deadly 2 years ago. Their offensive line isn’t nearly as good as 2014, given the ridiculous release of long-time guard Josh Sitton at final cuts and injuries to both center Corey Linsley and left tackle David Bakhtiari, though the latter might still play, after being listed as questionable. However, this line is still a little too low overall. It’s a no confidence pick, but I expect the Packers to win by at least a touchdown.

Green Bay Packers 34 Jacksonville Jaguars 27

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -5.5

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 1 NFL Picks, Bengals, Jets, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) at New York Jets (0-0)

The Bengals were one of the best teams in the league last season before Andy Dalton went down with an injury. Dalton is now healthy, but doesn’t have the same team around him. The Bengals lost 2 of Dalton’s top-3 wide receivers this off-season and also lost a pair of starters in the secondary. In addition, they had no next to injuries around Dalton last season, finishing with the fewest adjusted games lost to injury. Not only does that mean they don’t have any key players returning from injury to give them a boost, as most teams do, but they’re already without tight end Tyler Eifert, linebacker Vontaze Burfict (suspended), first round pick cornerback William Jackson, and fourth round pick defensive tackle Andrew Billings. That puts them at a major disadvantage.

The Jets, meanwhile, actually finished last season with the best rate of moving the chains differential in the AFC, finishing 4th overall, but didn’t even make the playoffs at 10-6. Just one of their losses came by more than a touchdown, while 6 of their wins came by 13 or more, so they were definitely better than their record and could have easily won 11 or 12 games. However, like the Bengals, they may have missed their opportunity and seem due for a regression this season. This is a very veteran-laden team without much young talent, particularly on offense, so they’re unlikely to be as good as they were last season. I disagree with them being home underdogs here, even if only by 1.5 points, but I would need the full field goal to put any money on them.

New York Jets 17 Cincinnati Bengals 16 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +1.5

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 1 NFL Picks, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Patriots, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (0-0) at Arizona Cardinals (0-0)

When this line opened at 6, I was thinking I was likely going to take New England. It probably wouldn’t have been for any money, but they had a good team around the quarterback and seemed like they could have made it close. However, that changed when Rob Gronkowski was ruled out with a hamstring injury. The line moved to 7, but that doesn’t seem like nearly enough compensation, especially considering left tackle Nate Solder and right guard Jonathan Cooper are also both out.

In addition to Tom Brady, the Patriots are already missing 3 starting offensive lineman (including right tackle Sebastian Vollmer, who could be done for the year), top pass catcher Rob Gronkowski, and pass catching running back Dion Lewis. Their defense is still strong and could help them keep this one close, but they don’t look like they’d have much of a shot in a shoot out. Arizona is once again a legitimate contender with a top level offense and could easily win by over a touchdown. It’s not enough for me to put any sort of confidence on the Cardinals, but they’re my pick here.

Arizona Cardinals 27 New England Patriots 17

Pick against the spread: Arizona -7

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]