Atlanta Falcons (4-1) at Seattle Seahawks (3-1)
The Falcons have started an impressive 4-1, with wins over Oakland, Carolina, and Denver, three tough football teams. Last week, they beat the Broncos by a touchdown in Denver, as 4 point underdogs. This week, they’re 6.5 point underdogs in Seattle. The Seahawks are a better team than the Broncos on both sides of the ball, especially since Denver was starting backup quarterback Paxton Lynch, but it’s fair to question if this line is too high. The Falcons were 7 point underdogs on the early line last week, meaning this line only shifted a half point for the Falcons’ surprising and impressive victory last week. I think the talent gap between these two teams is a little closer than this line suggests. We’re not getting a ton of line value, but I would have had the line at like 5.
More importantly, the Falcons are in a much better spot than the Seahawks. This is third of three tough games (Carolina, Denver, Seattle) for Atlanta, before they host the Chargers next week. With no upcoming distractions, they should be completely focused here. Meanwhile, the Seahawks head to Arizona next week, to face last year’s division winner. While the Falcons will definitely be favorites next week, the Seahawks are likely to be underdogs. Underdogs are 83-58 ATS since 2012 before being favorites when their opponents will next be underdogs. I see this being a close game and I like Atlanta’s backdoor cover chances even if they’re down like 10 or 13 late. As long as you get 6 or higher, Atlanta is worth a bet.
Seattle Seahawks 24 Atlanta Falcons 20
Pick against the spread: Atlanta +6.5