Green Bay Packers (4-2) at Atlanta Falcons (4-3)
This line was 2.5 in favor of the Falcons on the early line last week, but the line has since risen to 3. That’s despite the fact that Green Bay won easily over the Bears, while the Falcons lost at home to the Chargers last week. A half point might not seem like a big difference, but considering 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, it is a big difference in this case. This line currently suggests these two teams are about even, which I disagree with. The Falcons have a fantastic offense (2nd in first down percentage), but a terrible defense (28th in first down percentage allowed), while the Packers are more well-rounded.
The Packers’ offense isn’t as good as it’s been in the past, but they are 9th in first down percentage, 11th in first down percentage allowed, and 5th in first down percentage differential. That’s 7 spots higher than the Falcons, who are 13th. Even with all of the injuries the Packers have, they’re still the better team and we’re getting value with them as 3 point underdogs. The Falcons are also in a tough spot with a Thursday Night game on deck. Favorites are 50-79 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football. The Packers, meanwhile, have an easy home game against the Colts on deck next Sunday, so they have no upcoming distractions on the schedule. They’re worth putting money on at 3.
Green Bay Packers 31 Atlanta Falcons 30 Upset Pick +140
Pick against the spread: Green Bay +3