Kansas City Chiefs (4-2) at Indianapolis Colts (3-4)

The Colts get wide receivers Donte Moncrief and Phillip Dorsett back from injury this week, but are still pretty banged up, missing starting defensive ends Kendall Langford and Henry Anderson, starting tight end Dwayne Allen, and top offensive lineman Jack Mewhort. Despite that, I think we’re getting pretty good value with them as field goal home underdogs. About 1 in 4 games are decided a field goal or fewer and the Chiefs are only 14th in first down percentage differential, so this line is a little bit high, especially since the Colts are 24-12 ATS at home in the Andrew Luck era/Chuck Pagano era (since 2012), including 8-0 ATS as home underdogs. Despite that, the public is all over the Chiefs and I love fading the public whenever it makes sense, as they always lose money in the long run. There’s not enough here for me to put money on the Colts, but they’re the pick here.

Kansas City Chiefs 24 Indianapolis Colts 23

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +3

Confidence: Low

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