Month: October 2016

Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants: 2016 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (3-2) at New York Giants (2-3)

This line has shifted a half point since the early line last week, as the Giants are now 3.5 point favorites. That might not seem like a huge line movement, but, considering 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, it’s a very significant half point. Ordinarily, I like to fade significant week-to-week line movements, but in this case the movement makes sense, as the Ravens are expected to be without edge rusher Elvis Dumervil, wide receiver Steve Smith, middle linebacker CJ Mosley, right guard Marshal Yanda, and left tackle Ronnie Stanley. That’s a huge chunk of their team they’re missing.

Smith, Mosley, and Yanda are missing their first games of the season, while Dumervil is out again after re-injuring his foot, which originally cost him the first 3 games of the season. Yanda is an especially big loss, as he’s one of the best guards in the league. Without him and Stanley (who will miss his 3rd straight game) on the line, this offense figures to continue to struggle. All that being said, I’m still taking the Ravens because the Giants have a London game on deck and teams understandably are 7-19 ATS before a London game all-time and because 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less. I have no confidence in Baltimore, but they’re the pick at 3.5. At 3, I might change my pick. That’s how close this is.

New York Giants 20 Baltimore Ravens 17

Pick against the spread: Baltimore +3.5

Confidence: None

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Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts: 2016 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (2-3) at Houston Texans (3-2)

The early line had the Texans as 3.5 point home favorites here over the Colts, but the line has been at 3 this week. That’s only a half point, but considering 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal and 1 in 4 games are decided by less than a field goal, it’s a significant half point. Right now, this line suggests these two teams are not even, which has not been true thus far this season. The Texans enter this game 22nd in first down percentage, while the Colts enter in 29th, thanks to a defense that ranks dead last in first down percentage allowed.

Something will have to give, as the Texans come in dead last in first down percentage on offense. The Texans have scored just 6 offensive touchdowns in 5 games this season, despite off-season additions of wide receiver Will Fuller and running back Lamar Miller. That’s because their offensive line has been a mess, thanks to injuries and off-season departures, while free agent acquisition quarterback Brock Osweiler has been even worse than last year’s quarterback Brian Hoyer thus far this season, at a price of 18 million annually. The defense has been strong, but is not the same without the injured JJ Watt, so I’m not confident in Houston, but, all things considered, Houston is the better team. Indianapolis’ Andrew Luck is one of the best quarterbacks in the league, but the Colts have one of the worst rosters around him in the league.

Houston Texans 24 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against the spread: Houston -3

Confidence: Low

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Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints: 2016 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (1-4) at New Orleans Saints (1-3)

The Panthers have had a rough start to their season to say the least. A year after losing just one regular season game en route to a Super Bowl appearance, the Panthers have started 1-4 and have a big uphill climb to even make the playoffs. In order to win 10 games, the Panthers now have to win 9 of their final 11 games. That being said, I wouldn’t rule that out. The Panthers still have one of the most talented rosters in the league, but have suffered bad luck early in the year. Three of their losses came against tough opponents in the Broncos (who they could have beaten if not for a missed field goal), Vikings, and Falcons, while their 4th loss came in a game in which they were without concussed quarterback Cam Newton and still had a shot to win despite a -4 turnover margin. Newton is back this week (as is running back Jonathan Stewart) and turnover margins are very inconsistent on a week to week basis. Teams that have a -4 turnover margin on average have a turnover margin of +0.1 the following week.

The Panthers are underrated coming into this game, as mere 3 point road favorites against a Saints team that is probably a bottom-10 team, especially without left tackle Terron Armstead, cornerback Delvin Breaux, and first round pick defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins, who are all injured. The Panthers aren’t quite as talented as they were last year, especially without cornerback Josh Norman, but them going 9-2 the rest of the way isn’t crazy. It’ll be tough, but just looking at their schedule, there’s only two games the rest of the way where they figure to be underdogs (@ Oakland and @ Seattle) if they stay healthy. They’re a talented team and could start a run to the playoffs with a big victory against an inferior Saints team in New Orleans. There’s not quite enough for me to put money on the Panthers, but that changes if the line falls under 3.

Carolina Panthers 31 New Orleans Saints 24

Pick against the spread: Carolina -3

Confidence: Low

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Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions: 2016 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (3-2) at Detroit Lions (2-3)

This line at 3 suggests these two teams are equal. I disagree with that. Despite, having a worse record than the Rams, the Lions are the significantly superior team in this matchup. Despite having three wins, the Rams rank dead last in first down percentage differential and have had a worse first down percentage than their opponents in all 5 games thus far. Their 3 wins have come by a combined 15 points, while their 2 losses have come by a combined 39 points. Their -24 point differential is 8th worst in the NFL and they’re legitimately a few plays away from being 1-4 or even 0-5. They have 36 fewer first downs than their opponents and have one of the worst rosters in the entire NFL.

The Rams could get defensive linemen Michael Brockers, Robert Quinn, and William Hayes all back from injury this week, after all three missed last week’s home loss to the Bills. Those three are a huge part of their defense and are game-time decisions at worst after returning to a limited practice on Friday and being listed as questionable. However, even with those three back, this is not a good team, especially with top cornerback Trumaine Johnson missing this game with injury. The Lions, meanwhile, rank 19th in first down percentage differential and get one of their best players back from injury this week, as defensive end Ezekiel Ansah returns for the first time since getting injured week 2.

Outside linebacker DeAndre Levy remains out and defensive tackle Haloti Ngata joins him, but Ansah is arguably their best defensive player and a huge re-addition to a defense that ranks 27th in first down percentage allowed. Their offense has been much better, ranking 5th in first down percentage. The Lions are a much better and much more complete team than the Rams here and should be favored by at least 6. On top of that, the Rams have a London game on deck and teams are understandably 7-19 ATS all-time before playing in London. This is a big wager on the Lions at 3 and still worth a bet even at 3.5.

Detroit Lions 24 Los Angeles Rams 16

Pick against the spread: Detroit -3

Confidence: High

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Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers: 2016 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (4-1) at Green Bay Packers (3-1)

The Cowboys pulled an impressive home upset victory over the Cincinnati Bengals last week, winning 28-14. Ordinarily, teams struggle after a home upset victory, as teams are 53-77 ATS in that spot since 2012. One of the reasons for that is home upset wins tend to move future lines significantly and that’s the case in this game, as the Cowboys went from 6.5 point underdogs on the early line last week to now 4.5 point underdogs. Typically, I like to bet against significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play. However, I don’t think this line is unreasonable at 4.5 at all, as the Cowboys have been one of the best teams in the league thus far this season and showed it with a statement win over a capable Cincinnati team last week.

The Cowboys are 4-1, legitimately a few plays away from being 5-0 (their only loss came by 1 week 1), and rank 9th in first down percentage differential. Green Bay, who ranks 6th in that metric, is the toughest team the Cowboys have faced thus far, but close to 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer, so I like their chances of keeping it close and covering this 4.5 point spread. Worst case scenario, if the Cowboys are down 10 or 11 late, I like their chances of pulling off a backdoor cover.

The Packers are also in a tough spot, as they have to turn around and play again in 4 days on Thursday Night Football. Favorites are 50-75 ATS since 2008 before a Thursday night game. The Packers used to have a big advantage in Lambeau Field, going 36-23 ATS at home from 2008-2014, but they are just 4-5-1 ATS at home in the last 2 seasons. Meanwhile, the Cowboys typically travel well, thanks to a national fanbase. Since 2010, they’ve outscored opponents by 0.87 points per game at home and been outscored by 0.72 points per game on the road, meaning their homefield advantage hasn’t even been worth a point over that time period. They’re also 20-12 ATS as road underdogs over that time period. I’d put money on the Cowboys at 4.5, but I’d hold off at 4. The Cowboys are the pick though.

Green Bay Packers 27 Dallas Cowboys 24

Pick against the spread: Dallas +4.5

Confidence: Medium

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New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals: 2016 Week 6 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (1-4) at Arizona Cardinals (2-3)

This is a tough one. On one hand, the Cardinals were 6.5 point favorites on the early line last week and now are 8 point favorites, so we’ve lost value with them in the last week. Meanwhile, the Jets are in a great spot in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 133-98 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 108-66 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 233-234 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.49 points per game, as opposed to 333-455 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.80 points per game.

On the other hand, the Cardinals are much better than their 2-3 record suggests and 8 might still be too low for this line, as there’s a major talent gap between these two teams. Despite their record, they still rank 4th in first down percentage differential and have a point differential of +24, 10th best in the NFL. Their offense (which ranks 13th in first down percentage) hasn’t been as good as last season, but their defense has been just as good, entering this game 6th in first down percentage allowed.

Their offense gets a boost this week with Carson Palmer returning from a one-game concussion absence, but Palmer hasn’t played nearly as well this season as last season and the Cardinals will be without both talented guards Evan Mathis and Mike Iupati with injury in this one. Even without them, Palmer still has a ton of talent around him on offense and the Cardinals are still a lot better than the Jets, who rank 30th in first down percentage differential and have one of the weakest rosters in the NFL, without stud wide receiver Eric Decker for the season and without top linebacker David Harris at least for this week. I can’t be confident in the Cardinals at 8, especially with the Jets in a good spot, but they should be the right side.

Arizona Cardinals 27 New York Jets 17

Pick against the spread: Arizona -8

Confidence: None

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Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks: 2016 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (4-1) at Seattle Seahawks (3-1)

The Falcons have started an impressive 4-1, with wins over Oakland, Carolina, and Denver, three tough football teams. Last week, they beat the Broncos by a touchdown in Denver, as 4 point underdogs. This week, they’re 6.5 point underdogs in Seattle. The Seahawks are a better team than the Broncos on both sides of the ball, especially since Denver was starting backup quarterback Paxton Lynch, but it’s fair to question if this line is too high. The Falcons were 7 point underdogs on the early line last week, meaning this line only shifted a half point for the Falcons’ surprising and impressive victory last week. I think the talent gap between these two teams is a little closer than this line suggests. We’re not getting a ton of line value, but I would have had the line at like 5.

More importantly, the Falcons are in a much better spot than the Seahawks. This is third of three tough games (Carolina, Denver, Seattle) for Atlanta, before they host the Chargers next week. With no upcoming distractions, they should be completely focused here. Meanwhile, the Seahawks head to Arizona next week, to face last year’s division winner. While the Falcons will definitely be favorites next week, the Seahawks are likely to be underdogs. Underdogs are 83-58 ATS since 2012 before being favorites when their opponents will next be underdogs. I see this being a close game and I like Atlanta’s backdoor cover chances even if they’re down like 10 or 13 late. As long as you get 6 or higher, Atlanta is worth a bet.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Atlanta Falcons 20

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +6.5

Confidence: Medium

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Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots: 2016 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (2-3) at New England Patriots (4-1)

The Patriots got a big 20 point win in Cleveland last week, while the Bengals lost by 14 points in Dallas. As a result, this line has moved from 7 on the early line last week to 9 this week. I think this line is too high now. The Patriots’ performance was impressive, but the Bengals are a much tougher opponent than the Browns. The Patriots are a top-5 team with Tom Brady back, but the Bengals are better than this line and their record suggest. They’re 2-3, but all 3 of their losses came against tough opponents, Denver, Pittsburgh, and Dallas. They’re not as good as they were last year, missing injured tight end Tyler Eifert, and free agent departures Marvin Jones, Mohamed Sanu, Reggie Nelson, and Leon Hall. However, they’re still a legitimate playoff contender.

They’re also in a great spot here, even against a tough New England team. For one, they’re in their second straight road game. Teams are 133-98 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 108-66 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 233-234 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.49 points per game, as opposed to 333-455 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.80 points per game.

The Bengals also have a very easy game on deck against the Browns. The early line has them as 10.5 point favorites, a big swing from this game. Underdogs of 6 or more are 40-30 ATS since 2008 before being favorites of 6 or more. It’s much easier to keep it close against a superior opponent if you don’t have a tough game upcoming to provide as a distraction. The Patriots, meanwhile, go to Pittsburgh next week for arguably their toughest regular season game. As long as you can get it higher than a touchdown, it’s worth putting money on the Bengals. This figures to be a close game.

New England Patriots 24 Cincinnati Bengals 20

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +9

Confidence: Medium

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Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans: 2016 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (0-5) at Tennessee Titans (2-3)

Ordinarily, I like to go against significant week-to-week line movements, because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play. The early line for this game had the Titans as 5.5 point favorites, but the line has since moved up to 7 this week. However, that’s not enough to scare me off of Tennessee. I’ve had the Titans on my underrated list since the start of the season and they are still better than this line suggests. Despite their 2-3 record, they rank 5th in first down percentage differential. They’ve been competitive in every game and have a -9 point differential on the season, despite being -4 in return touchdown differential. Aside from those 4 plays, they have a +18 point differential and have quietly played very solid football this season. They’ve allowed just 6 touchdowns all season on 51 drives.

The Browns might have played a little bit tougher of a schedule than the Browns, but they’re a much inferior team. They have one of the league’s weakest rosters, especially with all of the players that are out with injury, and they rank 31st in first down percentage differential. The Browns were 10 point underdogs in Miami and 8 point underdogs in Washington, so it doesn’t make any sense that they’re just 7 point underdogs in Tennessee against the Titans, who are better than both of those teams. Even with the line movement, this line is too low.

Making matters worse for the Browns, they have another tough game on deck, as they travel to Cincinnati to play the division rival Bengals. Underdogs of 6+ are 46-74 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs of 6+ again. It’s very tough for inferior teams play well enough to keep it close against a superior team when they have another significantly superior opponent on deck. Betting on bad teams like the Browns is not always a bad idea, but big underdogs tend to only cover when they don’t have another equally tough or tougher opponent on deck. The early line actually has the Browns as 10.5 point underdogs in Cincinnati (even though the Titans and Bengals are actually comparably good teams). Teams are 39-61 ATS since 2012 before being double digit underdogs. It’s possibly that line shifts under 10 in the next week, but, either way, it’s a tough spot for the Browns against an underrated Tennessee team.

Tennessee Titans 24 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against the spread: Tennessee -7

Confidence: High

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears: 2016 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3) at Chicago Bears (1-4)

This one is tough. Despite similar records and arguably similar levels of talent, the Bears have significantly outplayed the Jaguars through the first 5 weeks of the season. Despite a ton of injuries (Pernell McPhee, Eddie Goldman, Kevin White, LaMarr Houston, Kyle Fuller, Jay Cutler), the Bears rank 8th in the first down percentage differential. They’re arguably healthy now than they were a few weeks ago, with the return of middle linebacker Danny Trevathan from injury. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are healthier than they’ve been all season. Jared Odrick, Prince Amukamara, Brandon Linder, and Kelvin Beachum all missed time earlier in the year, but, coming out of their bye, they are only missing mediocre guard Luke Joeckel. However, through 4 games, they are 27th in first down percentage differential.

Despite that, the Bears are only favored by 1.5 points here at home, suggesting the oddsmakers see the Jaguars as the superior team. That hasn’t been true thus far, as they’ve had much different numbers against fairly comparable schedules. The Jaguars have played the Packers, Chargers, Ravens, and Colts, while the Bears have faced the Texans, Chargers, Cowboys, Lions, and Colts. All of that being said, the reason I can’t be confident in Chicago is because they have easily their biggest game of the season on deck next week, which could cause them to overlook an unfamiliar, underwhelming opponent.

The Bears travel to Green Bay, where they are expected to be 10.5 point underdogs against the Packers, according to the early line. Teams are 39-61 ATS since 2012 before being 10+ point underdogs and 19-33 ATS as favorites before being 10+ point underdogs since 2008. On top of that, favorites are 50-75 ATS since 2008 before a Thursday night game. The Bears are the pick and could be worth putting money on (I may decide to later), but I’m worried about the possibility of the Bears showing up flat with a huge game on deck and the Jaguars showing up and playing their best football of the season, healthy coming out of the bye.

Update: I’ve decided to bump this up to a medium confidence play. As long as the line is under a field goal, the Bears have a good chance to cover.

Chicago Bears 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 16

Pick against the spread: Chicago -1.5

Confidence: Medium

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