Buffalo Bills (4-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-5-1)
This line has shifted from 4.5 in favor of the Bengals on the early line last week to 3 in the past week, a huge shift considering about 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer and about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. Typically, I like to fade significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be overreactions to a single week, but we’re not really getting line value with the Bengals at 3 either. I have these two teams more or less even. In fact, they’re just one spot apart in terms of first down rate differential, Cincinnati entering in 20th and Buffalo entering in 21st. This line suggests these two teams are even, so this line is exactly where it should be. Neither side is really in a better spot than the other one either. I’m taking the Bengals because the public is on Buffalo and the public always loses money in the long run, but this is a pure public fade and a pick ‘em pool pick only. I wouldn’t touch this game. A push seems likely.
Cincinnati Bengals 23 Buffalo Bills 20
Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -3