Washington Redskins (6-3-1) at Dallas Cowboys (9-1)
I mentioned this in my Minnesota/Detroit pick as well. Divisional road underdogs are 60-33 ATS since 2002 in same season divisional revenge games against an opponent that previously beat them as home favorites. Division rivals know each other well, so it makes sense that comparable teams tend to split the season series, even if the road team pulls the upset in the first game. The Cowboys and Redskins are not as comparable as Detroit and Minnesota are, as the Cowboys are an obviously better team, but that trend is still somewhat relevant here, especially since the Cowboys haven’t had much homefield advantage in recent years.
The Cowboys are 31-21 ATS on the road since 2010, which is impressive, but just 19-34 ATS at home over the same time period, including 11-26 ATS as home favorites. Over that time period, they’ve been outscored opponents by 0.02 points per game on the road and outscored opponents by an average of 1.13 points per game at home, meaning home field advantage hasn’t even been worth a point for them in recent years. That makes sense, as the Cowboys have fans throughout the country and get great support on the road.
They’re 4-1 ATS at home this year, but that’s because they’ve been underrated all season. Besides, their covers against Baltimore and Philadelphia could have gone either way, as both games were closer than the final score suggested. The Cowboys aren’t underrated anymore and might actually be a little bit overrated here, as much of their success can be attributed to how much support they get from road crowds. The Redskins are a quality opponent that the Cowboys only beat by 3 in Washington earlier this year. They might not win by much more here this week. There’s not enough here for me to put any money on it, but I like the points in what should be a close divisional matchup.
Dallas Cowboys 31 Washington Redskins 27
Pick against the spread: Washington +6.5