Month: November 2016

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants: 2016 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (4-3) at New York Giants (4-3)

I’m torn on this one. On one hand, the Eagles are in a great spot in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 133-102 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 105-70 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. This is even true with teams off of overtime losses, like the Eagles here (6-2 ATS over that time period). This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 226-241 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.85 points per game, as opposed to 323-453 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.03 points per game.

On the other hand, we’re getting absolutely no line value with the Eagles here at 2.5. For some reason, this line shifted from 3 on the early line last week to 2.5 this week, despite Philadelphia’s loss and New York’s bye. Considering about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, that’s a pretty significant line movement. At 3, I’d probably take the Eagles, but it’s tough to do so at 2.5 even with them in a great spot because the Giants are actually a little bit better of a team. They’ve managed a 4-3 record despite a poor -7 turnover margin and a tough schedule. They rank 9th in first down percentage differential, a few spots higher than the Eagles, who rank 13th in that metric. I’m taking the Giants, but for a no confidence pick.

New York Giants 20 Philadelphia Eagles 17

Pick against the spread: NY Giants -2.5

Confidence: None

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Indianapolis Colts at Green Bay Packers: 2016 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (3-5) at Green Bay Packers (4-3)

The Colts have been one of the worst teams in the league this season, entering this game with the 4th lowest first down percentage differential in the league, thanks largely to a defense that ranks 31st in first down percentage allowed. One of the oldest rosters in the league, the Colts have predictably declined this season and also have dealt with a number of injuries. This week, they’re without top safety Mike Adams, starting defensive end Kendall Langford, top offensive lineman Jack Mewhort, fellow starting offensive lineman Joe Reitz, and top pass rusher Trent Cole.

The Packers, meanwhile, rank 6th in first down percentage differential, so they’re one of the better teams in the league. They’re also getting healthier, with running back Ty Montgomery, center Corey Linsley, wide receiver Randall Cobb, cornerback Quinten Rollins, and linebacker Clay Matthews all returning to the starting lineup this week. They’re still missing key players, but they’re deep and talented enough overall to get by without them. This line is pretty big at 7.5, but I actually don’t think it’s high enough given the talent disparity between these two teams. I couldn’t put money on the Packers at 7.5, but that might change at 7 and definitely would change at 6.5.

Green Bay Packers 31 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -7.5

Confidence: Low

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Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns: 2016 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (6-1) at Cleveland Browns (0-8)

Typically, the Browns would be in a tough spot here, as they have to turn around after this tough home game against the 6-1 Cowboys and go to Baltimore on a short week, a tough divisional clash in which they’re projected to be 9.5 point underdogs on the early line. Underdogs of 6 or more are just 132-170 ATS since 2008 before being underdogs of 6 or more again. However, teams that are 0-8 or worse are actually 10-5 ATS in that spot over that time period. The Browns enter this game as the NFL’s only winless team at 0-8. Believe it or not, betting on winless teams this late in the season has actually been a winning bet in the past, as teams that are 0-8 or worse are 34-16 ATS since 1989.

That being said, I’m actually going with the Cowboys this week, just because of how good of a road team they are historically, thanks to their national fanbase. Since 2010, they’ve outscored opponents by 0.96 points per game at home and been outscored by 0.57 points per game on the road, meaning their homefield advantage hasn’t even been worth a point over that time period. They are also 29-21 ATS on the road over that time period. This line is pretty high at 7.5, so I couldn’t be confident in them, but the Cowboys are the pick in pick ‘em leagues.

Dallas Cowboys 28 Cleveland Browns 20

Pick against the spread: Dallas -7.5

Confidence: None

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New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers: 2016 Week 9 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (4-4) at San Francisco 49ers (1-6)

The Saints pulled a big home upset last week against the Seahawks. Part of the reason they were able to do that is because they didn’t have any upcoming distractions on the schedule, with this game in San Francisco against the 1-6 49ers on deck. Home underdogs tend to cover before being road favorites. Unfortunately for the Saints, the opposite also tends to be true, putting the Saints in a very tough spot this week as 4.5 point road favorites. This game is sandwiched between last week’s home upset win and another tough home game next week against the Denver Broncos, in which they are home underdogs on the early line. Teams are 56-78 ATS off of a home upset victory since 2012 and, over that same period of time, teams are just 16-31 ATS as road favorites before being home underdogs.

The 49ers are one of the worst teams in the league, but they could still easily take advantage of the Saints likely not being 100% focused on this seemingly easy game. I’m not saying the 49ers are going to win, but this line is 4.5 and about 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer, so I like the 49ers chances of at least keeping it close this week. This line was 2 a week ago on the early line, so we’ve had significant line movement through the key numbers of 3 and 4 in the past week as a result of the Saints’ victory. That’s a huge overreaction, as the Saints were in a great spot last week and playing a Seattle team that was missing two of its best defenders.

There are two reasons why this isn’t a bigger play. One is the Saints get two key defenders back from injury this week, as top cornerback Delvin Breaux will play for the first time since week 1 and 1st round pick defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins will make his NFL debut. They will help a defense that has been the worst in the league this season, though they’ve had the worst defense in the league in each of the past 2 seasons as well, so this is still a very weak unit. The second reason is the 49ers go to Arizona next week, a game in which they could be double digit underdogs (the early line is at 11). Teams are 40-61 ATS since 2012 before being double digit underdogs. That big divisional clash could be a distraction for San Francisco. I’m still taking the 49ers as long as the line is higher than 4, but it’s a medium confidence pick only.

New Orleans Saints 24 San Francisco 49ers 23

Pick against the spread: San Francisco +4.5

Confidence: Medium

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Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings: 2016 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (4-4) at Minnesota Vikings (5-2)

Even when the Vikings were 5-0, I thought they were overrated and an average team at best. Their defense is obviously incredible, but their offense was about as ineffective as their defense was effective through the first 5 games of the season. It was just masked by a +11 turnover margin and a +4 return touchdown margin, two things that tend to be very tough to rely on. Sure enough, the Vikings have been +0 in turnover margin and -1 in return touchdown margin over the past 2 games and have lost their first two games of the season. Their loss in Philadelphia was understandable because the Eagles are a solid team, but last week’s 20-10 loss against a supposedly inferior Bears team was embarrassing for the Vikings.

Now they return home and are 6.5 point home favorites over the Detroit Lions. Despite the back-to-back losses, the odds makers are still overrating them. Their offense has fallen to dead last in the NFL in first down percentage and, as good as their defense is (4th), they still rank just 22nd in first down percentage differential on the season. That’s actually one spot behind the Lions, who rank 21st. The Vikings have had a tougher schedule than the Lions, but this line is way too high at 6.5.

The Lions also enter this game in a better injury situation than they’ve had in awhile. Both cornerback Darius Slay and defensive tackle Haloti Ngata are expected to return from 1-game and 2-game absences respectively on defense this week. Before Ngata went down, defensive end Ezekiel Ansah missed 3 games in a row with injury. Linebacker DeAndre Levy remains out with injury, but Slay, Ngata, and Ansah are 3 of the 4 best defensive players on an overall weak defense and they’re playing in the same game for the first time since week 2 this week.

That should help a defense that ranks 28th in first down percentage allowed. Offensively, they have Theo Reddick and Eric Ebron back healthy and those are two of their top pass catchers. Those are just added weapons for an offense that ranks 4th in first down percentage. The Vikings, meanwhile, remain without running back Adrian Peterson, starting tackles Matt Kalil and Andre Smith, and stud defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd, who are out indefinitely. They’ll be joined this week by starting middle linebacker Eric Kendricks and starting left guard Alex Boone.

The Lions are also in a great spot here in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 133-102 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 105-70 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 226-241 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.85 points per game, as opposed to 323-453 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.03 points per game. The Vikings remain overrated, so I’ll bet against them once again.

Minnesota Vikings 20 Detroit Lions 17

Pick against the spread: Detroit +6.5

Confidence: Medium

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Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers: 2016 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (4-4) at San Diego Chargers (3-5)

The Titans may be just 4-4, but they actually rank 5th in the NFL in first down percentage differential. They’ve been competitive in every game and have a -1 point differential on the season, despite being -5 in return touchdown differential. Aside from those 5 plays, they have a +33 point differential (which would be 9th best in the NFL) and have quietly played very solid football this season. They have 17 more first downs than their opponents on the season and, in offensive touchdowns, they have a +7 advantage (22 to 15).

The Chargers are also better than their record at 3-5, as all 5 of their losses have come by 8 points or fewer. In fact, the Chargers have lost just 3 games by more than 8 points in the past 2 seasons, 24 games. However, at the same time, they have just 5 wins over that time period by more than 4 points, which is what it’ll take to cover this spread. They rank 7th in first down percentage differential, which is better than their record, but still worse than Tennessee. The Chargers have faced the tougher schedule, but this line should still be no higher than 3, especially since the Chargers enter this game very banged up.

The Chargers have been missing guys like wide receiver Steve Johnson, running back Danny Woodhead, wide receiver Keenan Allen, middle linebacker Manti Te’o, and cornerback Jason Verrett for most, if not all of the season thus far. On top of that, the Chargers will have a number of injured players inactive this week. Linebacker Denzel Perryman, Jatavis Brown, and Jeremiah Attachou are all out and all 3 are starters when healthy, and tight end Hunter Henry will join them, leaving the aging Antonio Gates to be an every down tight end. The rookie Henry has vastly outplayed Gates this season, as the veteran looks out of gas. Close to 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer, so I love getting 4.5 points with the Titans. As long as this line is higher than 4, the Titans are worth a bet again this week, as they continue to be underrated.

San Diego Chargers 24 Tennessee Titans 23

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +4.5

Confidence: Medium

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Buffalo Bills at Seattle Seahawks: 2016 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (4-4) at Seattle Seahawks (4-2-1)

The Seahawks are 4-2-1, but rank just 14th in first down percentage differential. Their defense has been great, as they’ve allowed the 5th lowest first down percentage against, but their offense has been a major problem, as they rank just 29th in first down percentage. This is despite the fact that they’ve played arguably the easiest schedule in the NFL thus far, as they rank dead last in opponent’s strength of schedule thus far this season. Their only two wins by more than 2 points came against the Jets and 49ers, two of the worst teams in the NFL. The Bills are 4-4 and far from a pushover, entering 17th in first down percentage differential; they’re an obvious step up from the 49ers and Jets.

The Bills also enter this game much healthier than the Seahawks. The Bills are still missing talented wide receiver Sammy Watkins with a long-term injury and will be without talented defensive tackle Marcell Dareus this week, after he reinjured himself in his season debut last week, but neither of those guys have been on the field much at all this season, so the Bills have largely been playing without them thus far. They also get back starting running back LeSean McCoy, after he missed one game and was limited in another with a hamstring pull.

The Seahawks, meanwhile, are missing two of their best defensive players again, as defensive end Michael Bennett and safety Kam Chancellor remain out after missing last week’s loss in New Orleans. Their defense was far from as good as normal last week without those two. Given how bad their offense has been this season, the Seahawks can’t afford to be without those two key players on defense. Given their injury situation, this line is way too high at 7. The Seahawks are also in a tough spot, as they have to turn around and go to New England next week, just 6 days after this relatively easier Monday Night Football matchup. The early line has them as 7.5 point underdogs in New England and teams are just 49-87 ATS as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point underdogs since 2002. The Bills are my Pick of the Week at 7 and I like them even if this line moves down to 6 or 6.5.

Seattle Seahawks 20 Buffalo Bills 17

Pick against the spread: Buffalo +7

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs: 2016 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-2)

The Jaguars have had a disappointing 2016 season. A perennial cellar dweller in recent years, the Jaguars entered the off-season with a lot of young talent and cap space to spend to add to their young talent, which they did with free agent additions like Malik Jackson, Chris Ivory, Kelvin Beachum, Prince Amukamara, and Tashaun Gipson. After a strong draft, many had them as a sleeper playoff team, but they’ve started the season 2-5 and look well on their way to another lost season in their 4th season under head coach Gus Bradley. Their offense has definitely been their most disappointing unit, as they’ve failed to move the ball outside of garbage time for most of the season, but this line is 7.5 so the Jaguars’ garbage time “prowess” could really help here. If the Jaguars are down by two scores late, I still like my chances of getting a cover with a late backdoor Jacksonville touchdown.

I don’t think it’ll even get to that point though. I’m not convinced the Jaguars are completely done; they’re not one of the worst rosters in the league and they’re relatively healthy right now compared to the rest of the league. They’ve had a long week off after Thursday Night Football and are installing a new offensive coordinator following the dismissal of Greg Olson, which could provide a spark for an offense that has underperformed it’s talent in competitive game situations this season.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, are without starting quarterback Alex Smith and their top two running backs Spencer Ware and Jamaal Charles, leaving them with a backfield of Nick Foles and Charcandrick West. Both of those players have some starting experience, but this isn’t a great offense to begin with so it’s tough to ask them to cover a 7.5 point line, especially considering 51.3% of games have been decided by a touchdown or less this season (compared to 45.8% from 2006-2015). That’s because the NFL is a lot of teams that aren’t far from average this season. This line is way too high.

The Jaguars are also in a great spot here in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 133-102 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 105-70 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 226-241 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.85 points per game, as opposed to 323-453 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.03 points per game. I like Jacksonville a lot at 7.5 or higher.

Kansas City Chiefs 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +7.5

Confidence: High

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Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2016 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (5-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4)

This line was 2 in favor of the visiting Falcons on the early line last week, but the line has since moved all the way up to 4.5. Considering it moved through the key numbers of 3 and 4, that’s a pretty significant line movement; close to 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer. Ordinarily, I love fading significant line movement because it tends to be the result of overreaction to a single week of play, but in this case it makes perfect sense. The Buccaneers went into overtime last week at home against the Raiders and now have to turn around and play a Thursday Night game on a short week. That historically has not gone well, as teams have covered just 4 times on Thursday Night off of an overtime game in 25 instances, since 1989. They figure to be exhausted in this one.

That being said, I couldn’t be confident in the Falcons at all, for a number of reasons. The first and most obvious one is how big this line is. The Falcons are a solid team, but the Buccaneers aren’t bad either and, even on a short week off of an overtime game, we’re getting absolutely no line value with the Falcons at 4.5. This line seems to take into account that the Buccaneers will be exhausted. The Falcons are also in a tough spot of their own, as they have a tough game in Philadelphia on deck, while the Buccaneers stay at home and host the lowly Bears next week. Favorites are just 58-89 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites. Home underdogs like the Buccaneers also tend to do well off of a loss as home underdogs, as teams are 74-50 ATS in that spot since 2002. I’m still taking the Falcons, but for a no confidence pick.

Atlanta Falcons 26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -4.5

Confidence: None

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