New York Giants (10-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-9)
Prior to the season, the Eagles were on my underrated list and I bet the over on their over/under of 6.5 wins. When they started the season 3-0, that looked like a wise bet. However, since that 3-0 start, the Eagles have lost 9 of 11 and need to win out against a pair of tough divisional opponents, the Giants and Cowboys, just to get over 6.5 wins. What happened? Well, there are a lot of factors, but part of it has been their inability to win close games, as they are 0-6 in games decided by a touchdown or less this season and have a +17 point differential despite their 5-9 record. Declining play at both at the quarterback position and the offensive line have also been a factor.
After looking like the next big thing to start the season, rookie quarterback Carson Wentz has fallen down to earth in a big way and now is among the worst quarterbacks in the NFL in QB rating. That’s understandable from a rookie quarterback and not something that’s likely to fix itself in the next two weeks. However, their offensive line is about to get a big boost from returning right tackle Lane Johnson, who has missed the last 10 games with suspension. Johnson is one of the best offensive tackles in the league, so it shouldn’t be a huge surprise that the Eagles went 2-8 in the games he missed, after starting the season 3-1 in the 4 games he played. They also get left guard Allen Barbre back after he missed last week’s game, the 3rd game he’s missed in the last 7 weeks. With a healthy offensive line and a lot of close losses that could have gone either way, the Eagles enter this game underrated.
The Giants, meanwhile, are not healthy entering this one. They got left guard Justin Pugh back last week, a big boost because he’s their best offensive lineman, but talented defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul will miss his 3rd straight game with an abdominal injury, while top cornerback Janoris Jenkins could join him on the sidelines after taking a big hit last week against Detroit. Jenkins hasn’t been ruled out yet, but his status is very much in doubt on a short week and even if he plays he might not be 100%.
That being said, the Giants rank 9th in first down rate differential and are still a solid squad even at less than 100%. Plus, we’re still only getting 3 points with the Eagles, so we’re not getting great line value or anything. The Eagles are also in a tough spot given that they have to turn around and host Dallas next week. Teams don’t usually big well before big home games like that, as teams are 43-94 ATS since 2012 the week before being 4.5 point home underdogs, which the Eagles almost definitely will be next week. Philadelphia should still be the right side, but this is a low confidence pick to start the week.
Also, by request, I’m going to be posting bets I lock in earlier in the week in my Thursday Night pick write up in the future so readers can grab them before they move. These are not all my bets for the week, just ones where I think the line may move in an unfavorable direction.
DEN +4 (I’d still take 3 or 3.5, but lock in +4 if you can. This opened at 4.5)
CHI +3.5 (I’d still take 3, but lock in +3.5 if you can)
ARZ +8.5 (I’d take this all the way down to 7, but the line is moving down after opening at 9 so this might be worth locking in)
New York Giants 17 Philadelphia Eagles 16
Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +3