Indianapolis Colts (7-7) at Oakland Raiders (11-3)
The Raiders are 11-3, but are not nearly as good as their record suggests, as their record is largely the result of a 5-0 record in games decided by a field goal or less and a league best +15 turnover margin. Turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, as there’s no week-to-week correlation in turnover margin. Outside of those 15 plays, the Raiders have been a pretty average team this year and they are legitimately a few snaps away from being 8-6, 7-7, or even 6-8. In terms of first down rate differential, they rank just 21st in the league.
The Colts, meanwhile, rank 18th in first down rate, so we’re getting some line value with them as 4 point underdogs, even if it’s not a lot. The Colts are also in a much better spot than Oakland, closing out the season with an easy home game against the Jaguars, while the Raiders finish with a tough divisional matchup in Denver, where they are expected to be underdogs. Favorites are 61-97 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites. The Raiders could definitely look past the Colts a little bit, while Indianapolis should be completely focused with no distractions on the horizon. I wish we were getting more than 4 points, but there’s enough here to put money on the Colts. If Oakland wins, it’ll probably be another close one.
Oakland Raiders 24 Indianapolis Colts 23
Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +4