Year: 2016

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2016 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (1-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0)

The Steelers got a huge 38-16 win in Washington on Monday Night Football week 1, led by an offense that moved the chains at an 82.35% rate. They seem to have picked up right where they left off last season when Ben Roethlisberger was healthy. In his 12 starts last season, the Steelers moved the chains at a 75.00% rate, which would have been 5th best in the league over the whole season. Add in a solid defense and they’re a very formidable opponent once again this season. On top of that, teams tend to carryover the momentum from a big Monday Night win into the following week, as teams who win by 21+ on Monday Night Football are 34-15 ATS the following week since 2002.

Despite that, they’re favored by just a field goal here at home. The Bengals were one of the better teams in the league last season, especially before Andy Dalton went down for the season with a broken thumb week 14, but are not the same team this season. They lost two of their top-3 wide receivers (Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu) in free agency, as well as a pair of starters in the secondary (Leon Hall and Reggie Nelson). On top of that, they’re without talented tight end Tyler Eifert, talented linebacker Vontaze Burfict, first round pick William Jackson, and fourth round pick Andrew Billings with injury, after barely having any injuries outside of the quarterback position last year.

This line suggests these two teams are even. I disagree. I think the Steelers are better by a significant amount and, in a great spot coming off of a huge Monday Night Football win, are likely to win by a field goal or more. As long as this line is right at a field goal, this is my Pick of the Week. In some places, this line is 3.5. I’d still put money on 3.5, but it’d be a smaller play considering how many games are decided by exactly a field goal (1 in 6). I’d suggest paying to get -3 if you can get it at -125 or better.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Cincinnati Bengals 17

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh -3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins: 2016 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (0-1) at Washington Redskins (0-1)

The Cowboys lost a very close one at home last week to the Giants, losing 20-19 in a game in which they actually moved the chains at a better rate than their opponents (78.13% to 77.78%). The Cowboys have not had much homefield advantage for several years and have been much better at covering on the road than at home. They are 15-34 ATS at home since 2010, including 8-26 ATS as home favorites, as opposed to 27-21 ATS on the road, including 19-12 ATS as road underdogs, as they are here (8-4 ATS as road divisional underdogs). That makes sense, as the Cowboys have fans scattered around the country and normally have many of their own fans in attendance at road games.

The Cowboys are also in a much better spot than the Redskins are this week. Next week, the Cowboys host the lowly Bears, while the Redskins have to turn around and head to New York for another divisional game against the Giants, this time a game in which they’ll be underdogs. Favorites are just 56-80 ATS since 2012 when their opponents will next be favorites. On top of that, divisional home favorites like the Redskins are just 22-61 ATS since 2002 before being divisional road favorites. The Redskins, fresh off of a terrible performance on Monday Night Football against the Steelers, might look past this “easier” game with a road divisional game on deck. As long as we’re getting the full field goal with them, I like the Cowboys’ chances of covering and pulling the upset. This is a big play.

Dallas Cowboys 27 New York Giants 24 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Dallas +3

Confidence: High

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New York Jets at Buffalo Bills: 2016 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 2 NFL Picks, Bills, Jets, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

New York Jets (0-1) at Buffalo Bills (0-1)

One of my favorite things to do as a bettor is go against week-to-week overreactions, so I always check to see how much the line has changed since the early line the previous week. Sometimes big line movements make sense, but often they don’t. In this game, the home team Buffalo Bills have gone from field goal favorites to now home underdogs, though they’re only home underdogs of 1.5 points. I wish we were getting at least a field goal the other way, because I like the Bills’ chances of at least keeping it within a field goal, but I still like their chances of winning straight up as well.

I disagree with this line movement. The Jets looked better than the Bills last week, but It’s still very early in the season and I had these two teams about even coming into the season. Of course, the Bills are at less than 100% injury wise, with talented left tackle Cordy Glenn now joining first and second round picks Shaq Lawson and Reggie Ragland on the sideline and Sammy Watkins playing through foot discomfort after off-season surgery. For that reason, I couldn’t put any money on the Bills without the full field goal, but I think they should be considered the favorites to win this game in their home opener. If you have to bet something in this game, bet the money line at +105 since this game looks like at least a toss up at worst.

Buffalo Bills 19 New York Jets 17 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Buffalo +1.5

Confidence: Low

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Green Bay Packers at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (0-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0)

The Packers are normally a much better team at home than on the road, but I actually like them on the road this week, as 5.5 point favorites in Jacksonville. Jacksonville is improved, but is likely still at least a year away and they could have easily been at least 7-point underdogs here. I think people might forget how good Green Bay’s offense was in 2014. They’re unlikely to be that good again, but all of their skill position talent is healthy, including the Aaron Rodgers/Jordy Nelson combination that was so deadly 2 years ago. Their offensive line isn’t nearly as good as 2014, given the ridiculous release of long-time guard Josh Sitton at final cuts and injuries to both center Corey Linsley and left tackle David Bakhtiari, though the latter might still play, after being listed as questionable. However, this line is still a little too low overall. It’s a no confidence pick, but I expect the Packers to win by at least a touchdown.

Green Bay Packers 34 Jacksonville Jaguars 27

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -5.5

Confidence: None

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Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 1 NFL Picks, Bengals, Jets, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) at New York Jets (0-0)

The Bengals were one of the best teams in the league last season before Andy Dalton went down with an injury. Dalton is now healthy, but doesn’t have the same team around him. The Bengals lost 2 of Dalton’s top-3 wide receivers this off-season and also lost a pair of starters in the secondary. In addition, they had no next to injuries around Dalton last season, finishing with the fewest adjusted games lost to injury. Not only does that mean they don’t have any key players returning from injury to give them a boost, as most teams do, but they’re already without tight end Tyler Eifert, linebacker Vontaze Burfict (suspended), first round pick cornerback William Jackson, and fourth round pick defensive tackle Andrew Billings. That puts them at a major disadvantage.

The Jets, meanwhile, actually finished last season with the best rate of moving the chains differential in the AFC, finishing 4th overall, but didn’t even make the playoffs at 10-6. Just one of their losses came by more than a touchdown, while 6 of their wins came by 13 or more, so they were definitely better than their record and could have easily won 11 or 12 games. However, like the Bengals, they may have missed their opportunity and seem due for a regression this season. This is a very veteran-laden team without much young talent, particularly on offense, so they’re unlikely to be as good as they were last season. I disagree with them being home underdogs here, even if only by 1.5 points, but I would need the full field goal to put any money on them.

New York Jets 17 Cincinnati Bengals 16 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +1.5

Confidence: Low

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New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (0-0) at Arizona Cardinals (0-0)

When this line opened at 6, I was thinking I was likely going to take New England. It probably wouldn’t have been for any money, but they had a good team around the quarterback and seemed like they could have made it close. However, that changed when Rob Gronkowski was ruled out with a hamstring injury. The line moved to 7, but that doesn’t seem like nearly enough compensation, especially considering left tackle Nate Solder and right guard Jonathan Cooper are also both out.

In addition to Tom Brady, the Patriots are already missing 3 starting offensive lineman (including right tackle Sebastian Vollmer, who could be done for the year), top pass catcher Rob Gronkowski, and pass catching running back Dion Lewis. Their defense is still strong and could help them keep this one close, but they don’t look like they’d have much of a shot in a shoot out. Arizona is once again a legitimate contender with a top level offense and could easily win by over a touchdown. It’s not enough for me to put any sort of confidence on the Cardinals, but they’re my pick here.

Arizona Cardinals 27 New England Patriots 17

Pick against the spread: Arizona -7

Confidence: None

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Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (0-0) at Baltimore Ravens (0-0)

Here’s another line that started at 3 and then moved, but this one has actually moved up to 3.5. When the line was originally at 3, it was a tough line because these two teams are both more or less equal. I have both finishing 8-8 in my season previews and both are missing a key defender right now (Marcell Dareus for the Bills, Elvis Dumervil for the Ravens). I was leaning towards the Ravens, simply because they’re a solid home team, but this line moving off of the field goal makes matters easier. There’s not enough here for me to put any money on the Bills, but 1 in 6 games are decided by a field goal or less, so I’ll take the visitor and hope they can at least keep it within 3 points.

Baltimore Ravens 23 Buffalo Bills 20

Pick against the spread: Buffalo +3.5

Confidence: Low

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-0)

When I saw this line was at 3 in favor of the home team Atlanta Falcons earlier this week, I immediately sided with the Buccaneers. It might not have been enough to put money on it, but a 3-point line suggests that these two teams are more or less even and I think the Buccaneers are a noticeable better team. The Falcons finished 2 games better than the Buccaneers last year, but Tampa Bay could take another step forward with a 2nd year quarterback under center, improvements on defense, likely bounce back years from top defensive players Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David, and the return of a couple players from injury, including right tackle DeMar Dotson.

The Falcons, meanwhile, made a couple of improvements this off-season, but also made significant reaches in the first two rounds of the draft and completely overpaid free agent wide receiver Mohamed Sanu. They also had next to no injuries last season, finishing with the 2nd fewest adjusted games lost in the league. That won’t continue and they’re already missing first round pick Keanu Neal with a knee injury. They have solid offense overall, but still lack a competent 2nd receiving option and the defense is one of the worst in the league. Tampa Bay should be a little bit better this off-season. It seems like sharp bettors agreed, as the line has since shifted to 2.5. Now that we’re not getting a field goal, I don’t have any confidence in Tampa Bay, but they should be the right side.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +2.5

Confidence: None

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New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (0-0) at Dallas Cowboys (0-0)

As weird as it might sound, the Cowboys have had trouble at home in recent years, especially as home favorites. In fact, they’re 8-26 ATS as home favorites since 2010. They’re only favored by one point here (it’s also a pick ‘em in many places), but they haven’t been good in general at home in recent years. Their home field advantage over the past 6 seasons has only been about a point. That’s weirdly true of the entire NFC East, which is a combined 59-39 ATS as road underdogs since 2008, including 44-24 ATS as divisional road underdogs over that time period. The Giants are 39-26 ATS as road underdogs since 2004, including 17-10 ATS as road divisional underdogs over that time period.

In addition to all of the trends, the Cowboys could struggle at the start of the season and don’t deserve to be favored here at all, especially given that they don’t have much homefield advantage. Tony Romo is once again hurt and will miss at least the first month of the season, leaving 4th round rookie Dak Prescott to start in his absence. The Cowboys’ offense struggled mightily in Romo’s absence last season. Prescott looked good in the pre-season and should be better than any of their backup quarterbacks were last year, but he’s still completely unproven and could struggle through growing pains as a rookie. Prescott will have a healthy Dez Bryant and rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott, which the Cowboys didn’t have last season, but they’re offense takes a big hit without Romo.

The Cowboys also figure to once again struggle mightily on defense, especially early in the year with starters Rolando McClain, Randy Gregory, and DeMarcus Lawrence all suspended. McClain, a linebacker, might not play all season and the Cowboys are especially thin at defensive end without Gregory and Lawrence. Career backups Jack Crawford and Benson Mawoya will be every down defensive ends to begin the season. The Giants have issues on the right side of the offensive line, at linebacker, and at safety, but they’re improved from last season, especially on defensive line. I like them to pick up the early road win here, but I wouldn’t put any money on it.

New York Giants 31 Dallas Cowboys 27 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +1

Confidence: Low

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