New York Giants (0-5) at Denver Broncos (3-1)
The Broncos were favored by 6 on the early line over the Giants last week, but the line has since moved to 11.5. Ordinarily, I like to fade significant week-to-week line movements like that as they tend to be an overreaction, but in this case it makes perfect sense, as the Giants as coming off of a week from hell. Not only did they lose at home 27-22 to the Chargers to drop to 0-5 (their 3rd loss by 5 points or fewer), but they also lost their top-3 wide receivers to injury. Sterling Shepard will be back in a week or two, but Odell Beckham and Brandon Marshall are out for the season and all 3 are out for this game, leaving Roger Lewis as the Giants #1 wide receiver. Add in the absences of center Weston Richburg, cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and defensive end Olivier Vernon and this line is about right at 11.5.
With that in mind, I’m going to take the Broncos this week. Not only are the Giants incredibly banged up, but they’re also in a very tough spot, with a home game against the Seahawks on deck. The Giants are 7.5 point home underdogs on the early line and teams are 29-69 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 6 or more. On top of that, underdogs of 6 or more are 51-84 ATS before being underdogs of 6 or more again the following week, since 2012. Combining those two trends, underdogs of 6 or more are just 10-28 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 6 or more. With two tough games in a row, it could be very tough for the Giants to compete in this one, so the Broncos are the smarter choice. There isn’t enough for me to bet on them though.
Denver Broncos 23 New York Giants 10
Pick against the spread: Denver -11.5