San Francisco 49ers (0-5) at Washington Redskins (2-2)
When this line was -7 last week on the early line, I liked Washington a decent amount, as it looked like they continued to be underrated, as they have been throughout the season. However, for some reason, this line has moved from 7 to 10.5 in the past week, despite the Redskins being on bye and the 49ers losing in overtime in Indianapolis. That’s too many points, especially since the Redskins enter this game banged up. Top cornerback Josh Norman is out, while left tackle Trent Williams will play at less than 100% if he even plays this week. The 49ers, meanwhile, could get promising rookie linebacker Reuben Foster back for the first time since week 1.
I have this line calculated at about -9, so we’re getting decent line value with the 49ers. The 49ers haven’t won a game yet, but they’ve been coming awfully close, taking their last two opponents (Arizona and Indianapolis) to overtime and losing their last 4 games by a combined 11 points. They haven’t faced the toughest schedule, but they should be able to keep it within 10 points in Washington. The Redskins are also in a terrible spot because they have to go to Philadelphia next week, so they could easily overlook the lowly 49ers this week. The early line has the Redskins as 6.5 point underdogs next week and favorites of 6+ are understandably just 54-88 ATS since 2002 before being underdogs of 6+ the following week. There’s not quite enough here for me to be confident in the 49ers, but they seem like the smarter pick.
Washington Redskins 28 San Francisco 49ers 20
Pick against the spread: San Francisco +10.5