Year: 2017

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins: 2017 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (2-2) at Miami Dolphins (1-2)

The Titans had a week from hell last week, as they lost 57-14 in Houston in a game in which they lost quarterback Marcus Mariota with an injury. It was an eerily similar game to their 38-17 loss in Jacksonville in week 16 of last season, when Mariota broke his leg. Those are the only two losses by more than 10 points for a Tennessee team that has generally played well over the past couple seasons. They were even able to win at home against the Texans without Mariota week 17 last year.

Mariota’s injury isn’t as serious as last season, as he only has a hamstring pull, but his mobility will be severely limited in this one, if he can even play. Given that they’re playing the Dolphins, they may opt to hold him out. The Dolphins are one of the worst teams in the league and should be 0-3 right now, if not for 2 missed makeable field goals by the Chargers week 1. They rank dead last in first down rate differential at -9.07%, despite a relatively easy schedule (Chargers, Jets, and Saints). They can beat them with a run heavy offense and Matt Cassel under center.

The Titans are also in a good spot as teams tend to bounce back off of blowout losses, going 54-29 ATS since 2002 after a loss by 35 or more. Teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed after big losses like that and they tend to bounce back as a result. That being said, I can’t take them with any confidence as 3 point road favorites, even as bad as the Dolphins are. I have this line calculated right at -3, with Tennessee’s uncertainty at quarterback factored in, and I wouldn’t want to bet anything on the Titans even if Mariota does end up playing, given how limited he would be. This is one of my lowest confidence picks of the week.

Sunday Update: Marcus Mariota is out for the Titans and the line has shifted to -1.5 in favor of the Dolphins. Even with Matt Cassel out there instead of Mariota, I have this line at -2.5 in favor of the Titans, so we’re getting a little bit of line value with the Titans, even if it’s between the field goals. The Dolphins are a terrible team and are in a tough spot in what will be a week 5 home opener for them. Teams are 27-55 ATS since 1989 in week 3 home openers and the Dolphins have already played games in Los Angeles, New York, and London before returning home to Miami, where they have little homefield advantage anyway (27-42 ATS since 2008, including 12-27 ATS as favorites). The Titans had a bad week last week, but are still a talented team and they should be able to execute a run heavy offense well enough to bounce back from a blowout and win this game. This is still only a low confidence pick, but it’s worth a small bet on the money line at +105.

Tennessee Titans 19 Miami Dolphins 17 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +1.5

Confidence: Low

San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts: 2017 Week 5 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (0-4) at Indianapolis Colts (1-3)

These are two of the worst teams in the league, but I think the 49ers are a little worse, at least as long as talented rookie middle linebacker Reuben Foster remains out with injury. The Colts, meanwhile, are actually getting healthier, with cornerback Vontae Davis returning last week and center Ryan Kelly back in the lineup this week. Quarterback Andrew Luck and safety Clayton Geathers remain out indefinitely, so this team still has problems, but I think the Colts’ roster is a little bit more talented than the 49ers’ right now.

This line, -1.5 in favor of the hometown Colts, suggests the opposite, that the 49ers are a little bit better. That might be true if Scott Tolzien was still the Colts’ quarterback, but Jacoby Brissett has done a decent job stabilizing this offense after Tolzien’s week 1 disastrous performance. We’re getting a couple points of line value with the Colts, who haven’t lost at home in regulation this season. They should be able to beat the 49ers, but there’s not enough for me to be that confident in them this week.

Indianapolis Colts 23 San Francisco 49ers 20

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -1.5

Confidence: Low

New York Jets at Cleveland Browns: 2017 Week 5 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (2-2) at Cleveland Browns (0-4)

Going into the season, the Jets were seen as one of the worst teams in recent memory and a legitimate candidate to go 0-16, after completely gutting their roster this off-season. However, they’ve managed to win two games in a row, so the general public is starting to think they might not be so bad. The Browns were favored by 4 in this game on the early line last week, but now this line is even, which is a significant line movement given that about 30% of games are decided by 4 points or less. That’s partially because the Browns got blown out by the Bengals, but I think the public is overrating the Jets because of their record.

I still have them ranked dead last in my roster rankings, especially given that they’re missing talented edge defender Kony Ealy with injury. Their first win came at home against the Dolphins, who are one of the worst teams in the league and who was playing in London the following week, and their second win came in overtime at home against the Jaguars, a middling team at best who had just returned from London. Despite the easy schedule and the two wins, they still rank just 28th in first down rate differential. Their defense has been middle of the pack, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 34.34% rate, but their offense has been horrendous, only picking up first downs at a 29.11% rate. On paper, this is still arguably the least talented team in the league, so it shouldn’t be a surprise if they ultimately end up with only 3-5 wins when all is said and done.

They get another easy game this week, but they have to travel to Cleveland after spending the last two games at home and they’ve looked pretty bad on the road thus far. As bad as the Browns are, I still have them one point better than the Jets, so I have this line at -4, which is where the line was before the significant line movement. I love fading significant week-to-week line movements as they tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play. The Jets are also in a tough spot with a huge home game against the Patriots on deck. Teams are 20-43 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 7 or more and the Jets are underdogs of 9.5 on the early line. There’s enough line value here for me to make a small bet on the Browns, but it’s hard to be too confident in them right now, even if all they have to do is win at home against a terrible team.

Sunday Update: This line has jumped to Cleveland +2 and the money line is now worth a play at +110.

Cleveland Browns 24 New York Jets 20 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +2

Confidence: Medium

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2017 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1)

The Jaguars lost last week in overtime to the Jets, but they were likely not 100% focused for the Jets the week after their London game, so it wasn’t that concerning of a performance. They’re still 2-2 and they’re still a capable opponent. Their passing game has major problems, given their situation at quarterback, in the receiving corps, and in pass protection, but they have one of the best defenses in the league and run the ball effectively, so they’ll be able to win some games without having to open up their passing game.

The Steelers are a tough opponent, so this is probably not one of those games, but the Jaguars can definitely make this a close game. They have the advantage on defense and they’re not a team that typically gets blown out, losing just 6 games by more than a touchdown over the past 2 seasons, despite going 3-13 in 2016. Just one of their last nine losses has come by more than 10 points. I have this line calculated at 6.5, so we’re getting a little bit of line value at 7.5. You could make a case that the Jaguars are the toughest team the Steelers have faced this season, as they’ve played the Browns, Bears, Ravens, and the Case Keenum led Vikings.

The Jaguars are also in a better spot than the Steelers, who have to turn around and play one of the tougher games of their season next week in Kansas City against the undefeated Chiefs, which could be a bit of a distraction for them as they prepare for the Jaguars this week. The Jaguars, meanwhile, will host the Rams in a non-conference game that probably isn’t much of a distraction. Underdogs typically cover before being favorites if their opponent will next be underdogs, going 60-38 ATS in that spot since 2014. The Steelers are only 2.5 point underdogs and the Jaguars are only 1 point favorites on the early line, but the reasoning makes sense regardless. There’s not quite enough here for me to be confident in the Jaguars, but I do see this being a close game.

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +7.5

Confidence: Low

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles: 2017 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (2-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-1)

The Cardinals finished the 2015 season #1 in first down rate differential when they finished 13-3 and then they finished #1 in that metric again in 2016, despite going 7-8-1, as they could have easily won 10-12 games if not for numerous special teams errors in close games. They missed a game winning field goal against New England. They allowed a long punt return to set up the winning score against the Rams. They had a blocked punt and a number of missed field goals in the tie against the Seahawks. They allowed a kickoff return touchdown in a 6-point loss to the Vikings. And against Miami, in a 3-point loss, special teams cost them 7 points on 3 plays with a missed field goal, a missed extra point, and a blocked extra point that was returned for 2 points. Had they made the playoffs, they would have been a difficult opponent.

However, this Cardinals team is not the same team as the past 2 seasons. They lost five defensive starters in free agency, including defensive end Calais Campbell, safety DJ Swearinger, and safety Tony Jefferson, all of whom were among the best players in the league at their position in 2016. On top of that, they’ve been ravaged by injuries, losing running back David Johnson, left guard Mike Iupati, and, most recently, outside linebacker Markus Golden for the season with injury, three other key contributors from 2016. They now have one of the least talented rosters in the league. They’re 2-2, but their only two wins have come in overtime against the 49ers and the Colts, two of the worst teams in the league.

The Eagles, meanwhile, are 3-1 with wins over the Redskins, Giants, and Chargers and they won the first down battle in their loss in Kansas City. They finished last year 7-9, but 6 of their 9 wins came by a touchdown or less. This season, they have Lane Johnson back (5-1 with him last season), an improved receiving corps, and a more confident Carson Wentz under center. They could easily finish with 10-12 wins and win the NFC East, as they have one of the more talented rosters in the league.

However, I can’t take them with much confidence as 6.5 point favorites for two reasons. For one, they’re banged up as well in this one, as top cornerback Ronald Darby remains out after injured his ankle week 1, while stud defensive tackle Fletcher Cox will miss his 2nd straight game with injury. I still have this line at 10.5, but the Eagles have to play again on Thursday Night 4 games after this one, which puts them in a tough spot. Favorites are just 58-90 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2008. They should be the right side, but this I’d need the line to go down to 5.5 to think about betting on them. They’re a smart survivor pick though.

Philadelphia Eagles 23 Arizona Cardinals 14

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6.5

Confidence: Low

Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders: 2017 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (2-2) at Oakland Raiders (2-2)

The big injury that gets attention in this game is the back injury to Derek Carr, who will be replaced by backup EJ Manuel at least this week, as he recovers from a small fracture. However, the Raiders are basically healthy other than that and the Ravens have lost significantly more to injury this year, with a league most 16 players on injured reserve. Their injuries issues have gone back to before the season even started, most importantly losing cornerback Tavon Young, tight end Dennis Pitta, and left guard Alex Lewis for the year before week 1.

Despite that, the Ravens started 2-0, but they have lost their last 2 games by a combined score of 70-16. What happened? Well, the competition has gotten tougher, as the Ravens’ wins came over the Bengals and the Browns and their losses have come against the Jaguars and Steelers. Their turnover margin has also regressed to the mean, as they’ve posted a -5 turnover margin over the past 2 weeks, after posting a +7 in the first 2 weeks of the season. But the biggest reason they’ve struggled has been the absence of guard Marshal Yanda and defensive tackle Brandon Williams, both of whom were healthy for the first 2 games. Those two were their best offensive and defensive linemen respectively.

Williams could be back in the next couple weeks, but Yanda is out for the year. The Ravens have struggled mightily offensively ever since Yanda when down, including in the 2nd half against the Browns week 2, which is no surprise because he’s arguably the best right guard in football. Without him and Williams against the Raiders, this is still far from an easy game, even with Manuel under center for the Raiders. Even without Carr, I have the Raiders 2 points better than the Ravens, so they should be favored by around 5 points here at home instead of 2.5. There’s enough line value here for a small bet on the Raiders.

Oakland Raiders 20 Baltimore Ravens 15

Pick against the spread: Oakland -2.5

Confidence: Medium

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams: 2017 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (2-2) at Los Angeles Rams (3-1)

The Seahawks were favored by 3 points on the early line last week, but this line has since shifted a full 4.5 points to favor the Rams by 1.5 points. Typically I love fading significant week to week line movements like that because they tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play. This game is no different. The line moved because the Rams pulled an upset victory in Dallas, despite the fact that the Seahawks had their best game of the season, beating the Colts in blowout fashion 46-18. However, the Cowboys are an overrated team that is not as good as last season and that was missing its best defensive player, linebacker Sean Lee.

Even without Lee, the Cowboys are still arguably the toughest opponent the Rams have faced this season, so their 3-1 record doesn’t tell the whole story. Their other two wins came against two of the worst teams in the league, the 49ers and Colts, and they lost at home to the Redskins. The Seahawks haven’t beaten a good team yet this year, but their two losses came on the road against the Packers and Titans, who are better than anyone the Rams have played, and they have much more of a proven history than the Rams.

I don’t deny the Rams are significantly improved offensively this season, with Jared Goff showing improvement, improved talent around him, and improved coaching but this line suggests they’re only 1.5 points worse than the Seahawks, which I think is very premature for a team that was one of the worst in the league a year ago. I have this line calculated at -3.5 in favor of the Seahawks and that doesn’t even take into account that this game could have a very Seahawks heavy crowd. The Rams don’t have quite the same problem attracting fans in Los Angeles as the Chargers do, but they’ve struggled to sell their stadium out so far and the Seahawks have a big national following. The Rams are just 2-6-1 ATS in LA since moving there before the 2016 season. The Seahawks are a smart pick as long as we’re getting points.

Seattle Seahawks 17 Los Angeles Rams 13 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Seattle +1.5

Confidence: High

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys: 2017 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (3-1) at Dallas Cowboys (2-2)

The Cowboys went 12-4 last year, but did not enter the 2017 season with as talented of a team, after losing 2 key starters on their offensive line and several key members of their secondary this off-season, and then losing top interior pass rusher David Irving for the first 4 games of the season with suspension. After 4 games, they are 2-2, despite not facing a particularly tough schedule, beating the Giants and Cardinals, a pair of below average teams, and losing to the Broncos and the Rams, a pair of middling teams.

Irving returns for the Cowboys this week, but he’s a one-year wonder coming off of a PED suspension, so he might not be a huge help for this team. The Cowboys will be without stud linebacker Sean Lee, their most important defensive player, for the 2nd straight week and could be without talented left tackle Tyron Smith after he aggravated a back injury in practice. Those injuries further weaken their offensive line and defense in time for by far their toughest game of the season.

The Packers enter at 3-1 and are going in the opposite direction injury wise, with stud defensive end Mike Daniels and talented starting offensive tackles David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga expected to return this week. The Packers last played on Thursday Night Football and the 10-day layoff allowed them to get as healthy as they’ve been all season. Given the state of these two rosters, I have these two teams about 4 points apart. However, this line is -2 in favor of the hometown Cowboys, suggesting these two teams are about 1 point apart.

We’re getting significant line value with the Packers before you even take into account that the Cowboys have had very little noticeable homefield advantage in recent years, as they tend to attract fans wherever they go. They are just 30-30 straight up at home since 2010, with an average differential of 1.68 points per game. Contrast that with their road record of 31-27 over that time period, with an average differential of -0.48 points per game. Their homefield advantage is really only worth about a point. The oddsmakers usually don’t correct for that, so the Cowboys are 21-38 ATS at home since 2010, including 13-30 ATS as a favorite. I have this line calculated at -3 in favor of the visiting Packers, so we’re getting 5 points of line value with Green Bay. This is my Pick of the Week as long as we’re getting points.

Green Bay Packers 31 Dallas Cowboys 27 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Green Bay +2

Confidence: Pick of the Week

New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2017 Week 5 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (2-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1)

The Patriots lost last week at home to the Panthers 33-30 on a last second field goal, after the Patriots tied it up in the 4th with back-to-back touchdown drives. Historically, the Patriots have been a great bet after a loss in the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick era. Brady is 36-17 ATS in his career after a loss, while Belichick is 46-24 ATS off of a loss since taking over as head coach of the Patriots in 2000. However, we’re not getting any line value with the Patriots this week, as this line actually jumped from 4.5 to 5.5 between the early line last week and the line this week.

Both casual bettors and the oddsmakers know not to doubt Brady and Belichick anymore after their 4th and 5th Super Bowls, so taking Brady off of a loss isn’t as intriguing of a bet as it used to be. Earlier this year, the Patriots/Saints line stayed at 6.5 even after the Patriots lost at home week 1 to the Chiefs as big favorites. The Patriots went on to cover that game, but that’s their only cover of the season, as they lost twice at home as big favorites and nearly lost a 3rd time, needing a last second touchdown drive to defeat the Texans by 2 as 14-point favorites.

The big concern coming into the season with the Patriots was Tom Brady’s age and whether or not he could continue being a high level quarterback at age 40, but Brady looks as good as ever despite his age. The reason the Patriots have been struggling to win games is because their defense looks as bad as it ever has. The Patriots are moving the chains at a 41.76% rate, 2nd in the NFL to Kansas City, but are still -1.77% in first down rate differential because their defense has allowed opponents to move the chains at a 43.53% rate. As good as their offense is, their defense is making opposing offenses look even better.

The Patriots are obviously very well coached and will probably figure out their defensive issues by mid-season as usual, especially since they return most of their 2016 defense, which was one of the better defenses in the league. However, I can’t justify taking them as 5.5 point favorites this week. My numbers have these two teams are 6 points apart, suggesting the Patriots should be favored by only a field goal. I like the advantage Brady and Belichick have on a short week, even on the road, and I think they have a good chance to bounce back, but the Buccaneers are probably the smarter choice against the spread. This is a no confidence pick.

New England Patriots 31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +5.5

Confidence: None

2017 Week 4 NFL Pick Results

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2017

Straight Up: 37-26

Against the Spread: 34-29

Pick of the Week: 2-2

High Confidence: 4-3

Medium Confidence: 9-9

Money Picks (Medium confidence and higher): 15-14

Low Confidence: 9-7

No Confidence: 10-8

Upset Picks: 4-4

Since 2013

Straight Up: 713-414-4 (63.22%)

Against the Spread: 586-517-28 (53.05%)

Pick of the Week: 42-30-2 (58.11%)

High Confidence: 63-51-3 (55.13%)

Medium Confidence: 175-128-5 (57.63%)

Money Picks (Medium confidence and higher): 280-209-10 (57.11%)

Low Confidence: 154-152-9 (50.32%)

No Confidence: 152-156-9 (49.37%)

Upset Picks: 93-117 (44.29%)