Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-0)

When I first looked at the week 1 lines back in late July, Cincinnati +3 at Indianapolis caught my eye immediately and I locked a small bet in at that number. The line has since shifted to +2, so I don’t like the Bengals as much, but I would still recommend betting them this week. I have these two teams 3 wins apart in my predictions, while this line suggests that the Bengals are only about a point better. The Colts get Andrew Luck back from injury, but have arguably the worst supporting cast in the NFL around him and Luck could easily be rusty early in the season.

The Bengals, on the other hand, have an improved offensive line and should get more out of their skill position talent, while their defense remains an above average unit. They are without linebacker Vontaze Burfict due to suspension to begin the season, but the Colts could also be without left tackle Anthony Castonzo with a hamstring injury, which would be a huge blow to an already shaky offensive line. The Bengals should be favored in this one and have a good chance to pull the “upset.”

Cincinnati Bengals 20 Indianapolis Colts 17 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +2

Confidence: Medium