Month: September 2018

Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers: 2018 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (2-0) at Carolina Panthers (1-1)

The Bengals are one of a few surprise 2-0 teams, as they’ve won games over the Ravens and Colts in which they were small underdogs. The Bengals were just 7-9 a year ago, but they significantly improved their offensive line this off-season and had several key skill position players returning from injury plagued 2017 seasons. They’ve continued to play well defensively, even with linebacker Vontaze Burfict suspended, while their offense has been much improved.

Unfortunately, the Bengals didn’t make it out of their Thursday night win over the Ravens without some key injury losses, with both center Billy Price and running back Joe Mixon out for at least a couple weeks. Price was one of the offensive line upgrades they added this off-season, while Mixon’s emergence as a feature back in his 2nd year in the league has been a big part of the reason why the Bengals have been improved offensively. Without them, passing down back Giovani Bernard will have to carry the load behind a downgraded offensive line.

Fortunately for the Bengals, they face an even more banged up opponent this week. For the second week in a row, the Panthers will be without three projected starting offensive linemen, left tackle Matt Kalil, right guard Trai Turner, and right tackle Daryl Williams due to injury (after losing left guard Andrew Norwell to the Jaguars in free agency this off-season). They’ll also be without tight end Greg Olsen and safety Da’Norris Searcy. There’s not quite enough line value with the Bengals to bet on them as 3 point underdogs, but the money line makes sense at +125, as this game is close to a toss up.

Cincinnati Bengals 20 Carolina Panthers 19 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +3

Confidence: Low

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2018 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0)

This line briefly opened at Pittsburgh -3, but sharp action quickly bet the line down to 1.5. I regret not grabbing Tampa Bay +3 when I saw it, as, not only is it obviously a better number, but the Steelers have really had a lot of trouble covering decent sized or bigger lines as non-divisional road favorites in the Mike Tomlin era, going 7-18 ATS as non-divisional road favorites of 3+ (6-4 ATS as road favorites of less than 3).

Despite that movement, we are still getting line value with the Buccaneers, who have been one of the NFL’s biggest surprises at 2-0, with wins over 2017 playoff teams in the Saints and Eagles. Their strong play is not coming out of nowhere though. Despite being just 5-11 a year ago, the Buccaneers finished 12th in first down rate differential and lost just 4 games by more than 7 points, against one of the toughest schedules in the NFL. That was even with Jameis Winston missing 3 games and being limited in others with a shoulder injury.

Before Jameis Winston got suspended, I thought this team could easily be a surprise playoff team in the NFC, but I backed off after the Winston suspension and other troubling news about him this off-season. Instead, Ryan Fitzpatrick has come in and played better than Winston ever has. It’s unclear how much the 35-year-old career journeyman can be trusted to continue playing like this, but I definitely have a lot more confidence in him now than I did a couple weeks ago.

On the other side, the Steelers are off to a disappointing 0-1-1 start, with a tie in Cleveland followed up by a home loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Pittsburgh’s early season struggles are not out of nowhere either. They went 13-3 in 2017, but went 8-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less and could have easily been a 10 win team or worse. They especially struggled down the stretch, winning just 2 games by more than 4 points in the final 8 games of the season and then losing in their first playoff game at home to Jacksonville. That was in large part due to the loss of linebacker Ryan Shazier with injury and they did not adequately replace him this off-season.

Shazier isn’t the only player the Steelers don’t have on the field right now either. In addition to the holding out Le’Veon Bell, the Steelers are also missing arguably their two best offensive linemen, right guard David DeCastro and right tackle Marcus Gilbert, DeCastro missing his second game and Gilbert missing his first. They get Joe Haden back from a one game absence with a hamstring injury, but cornerback Artie Burns remains limited by a toe injury and is expected to be a reserve in this game, while safety/linebacker Morgan Burnett is expected to be out with a groin injury. Given all the guys they’re missing, the Steelers don’t deserve to be favored by any amount in Tampa, as I have these two teams about even in my roster rankings right now. The Buccaneers are worth a small bet this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +1.5

Confidence: Medium

New York Giants at Houston Texans: 2018 Week 3 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (0-2) at Houston Texans (0-2)

A trendy pre-season Super Bowl “sleeper”, the Texans have gotten off to a disappointing 0-2 start, but they’ve been better than their record has suggested. Their first loss was in New England and last week they had a +7.27% first down rate differential in a 3-point loss in Tennessee. They had 21 first downs to 15 for the Titans, but they missed a field goal and couldn’t get the ball snapped for another field goal try to tie it at the end of the game, while the Titans scored on a 68 yard fake punt.

The Texans finally return home for their home opener this week, but the history of week 3 home openers is not good, as teams are 26-51 ATS over the past 30 years. The Texans could be tired after starting the season with back-to-back road games. They don’t have a tough opponent, as the New York Giants are a mediocre team at best, especially without edge rusher Olivier Vernon and cornerback Eli Apple, but we’re not getting any line value with the Texans as 6 point home favorites. For pick ‘em pool purposes I would take the Giants, but I would need at least 7.5 points to consider betting the Giants.

Houston Texans 20 New York Giants 16

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +6

Confidence: None

Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals: 2018 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (1-1) at Arizona Cardinals (0-2)

Through 2 games, the Cardinals have been the worst team in the league. Not only have they lost both games by wide margins (24-6 and 34-0), but they have looked awful while doing it, ranking dead last in first down rate differential at -21.68%. Last week’s game in Los Angeles was the one of the worst single game performances by a team in years, as they managed just 5 first downs to 24 for the Rams and did not even make it past midfield until the final drive of the game, after the outcome was far from in doubt.

New quarterback Sam Bradford has not looked the same after missing most of 2017 with knee injuries and his supporting cast hasn’t helped much either. They’ve struggled on defense and on the offensive line and have little offensive skill position talent behind Larry Fitzgerald and David Johnson. They are expected to get defensive end Markus Golden back from injury this week and he could provide them with a much needed pass rusher opposite Chandler Jones. He had 12.5 sacks in 2016 before tearing his ACL 4 games into 2017, though it’s unclear how effective he’ll be in his first game back.

In addition to Golden’s return, the other good news for the Cardinals is that teams typically bounce back after getting blown out like the Cardinals did last week, as teams are 65-47 ATS since 2002 after a loss by 34 points or more. It’s counterintuitive, but it makes sense if you think about it, as teams tend to be underrated, overlooked, and embarrassed after a blowout loss. That loss shifted this line from Chicago being favored by 2.5 on the early line to now being favored by 5, the biggest line movement of the week.

Typically I like going against these big line movements, but I actually think this line is pretty appropriate. With the addition of Khalil Mack, the Bears are a top-10 team and have arguably the most non-quarterback talent in the league, while the Cardinals look like one of the worst teams in the league. I’m taking the Cardinals just because I think the Bears might overlook them a little bit and because I don’t think they’re as bad as they’ve looked thus far this season, but this is a no confidence pick.

Chicago Bears 17 Arizona Cardinals 13

Pick against the spread: Arizona +5

Confidence: None

Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams: 2018 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Chargers (1-1) at Los Angeles Rams (2-0)

This game features the crosstown Chargers and Rams for the first time in their new city in Los Angeles. The Rams are technically the home team, but this is not a true road game for the Chargers because they don’t have to travel. In fact, considering the Chargers have no fans, they are used to playing in Los Angeles in front of mostly opposing fans, so this game is much more similar to a home game for the Chargers than a road game.

Despite that, the Rams are favored by a touchdown over the Chargers. The Rams are obviously one of the more talented teams in the league, but they’ve had a pretty easy schedule so far, as both the Raiders and Cardinals are mediocre at best. It remains to be seen if they can beat quality teams like the Chargers by more than a touchdown, especially since the Chargers rarely lose by large margins. In fact, just 11 of their 31 losses since 2015 have come by more than a touchdown and 5 of those losses came against the Chiefs, who seem to have their number.

The Chiefs beat the Chargers in Los Angeles week 1 by 10 points, but the Chargers actually won the first down rate battle by 6.83% in that game, picking up 33 first downs to 19 for the Chiefs. The Chiefs won as a result of a +2 turnover margin and several big plays (including a long punt return touchdown), but that’s not the most sustainable way to win (or lose) games.

On the season, the Chargers rank 3rd in first down rate differential at +10.77%, just behind the Rams who rank first. The Rams are also in a tough spot because they have to turn around and play Minnesota in 4 days on Thursday Night Football. Favorites are just 47-67 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2012. I’d be a lot more confident in the Chargers if they had a healthy Joey Bosa, but I like their chances of keeping this one close.

Los Angeles Rams 23 Los Angeles Chargers 20

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers +7

Confidence: Medium

San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs: 2018 Week 3 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (1-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (2-0)

The Chiefs’ offense has been incredible through 2 games, scoring a league high 10 touchdowns and picking up first downs at a 48.62% rate. Despite that, they still have a negative first down rate differential, as their defense has incredibly allowed opponents to pick up first downs or touchdowns on 50% of their snaps. They have given up 33 first downs each to the Chargers and Steelers in their first 2 games.

They still won the first down rate differential last week because of a ridiculous 55.56% first down rate by their offense, but they lost the first down rate differential in Los Angeles against the Chargers, winning that game as a result of a +2 turnover margin and several big plays (including a long punt return). That’s not the most sustainable way to win games. Their defense will be better when Eric Berry returns from his achilles tear, but it remains to be seen when that will be and their defense will have to be better if the Chiefs are going to keep winning.

Making the Chiefs’ offensive start even more impressive is the fact that their first two games were both on the road, as this game against the 49ers is their home opener. It could be a let down game for them though, as teams are 26-51 ATS over the past 30 years in week 3 home openers. The Chiefs have done well as underdogs on the road thus far this season, but being favored by 6 at home is a different dynamic. They could take their foot off the gas a little at 2-0, at home, against a non-conference opponent and at the very least allow the 49ers to hang around in a shootout.

All that being said, I would need a couple more points to take the 49ers with confidence this week. I have this line calculated right at -6, so we’re not getting any line value with the 49ers, who remain a little bit of an overrated team, as they lack a strong supporting cast around Jimmy Garoppolo, who has shown growing pains in his 2nd season as a starter. They struggled against a good team in Minnesota week 1 and then beat a mediocre Lions team in their home opener. The Chiefs have already beaten a pair of potential playoff teams and the 49ers are probably the easiest opponent they’ve had thus far. Getting Reuben Foster back from suspension helps, but not enough for me to bet on the 49ers this week.

Kansas City Chiefs 31 San Francisco 49ers 27

Pick against the spread: San Francisco +6

Confidence: Low

Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins: 2018 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (1-0-1) at Washington Redskins (1-1)

The Redskins lost 21-9 at home to the Colts last week, but that game was closer than the final score. The Redskins won the first down battle 20 to 17 and the Colts only had 3 scoring drives, but they were 3 for 3 converting red zone opportunities into touchdowns, while the Redskins were 0 for 2 and had to settle for 4 field goal attempts on the day (including a miss). The previous week, the Redskins were dominant in a week 1 road victory over the Arizona Cardinals, picking up 30 first downs and winning the first down rate battle by 14.59% in a 24-6 victory. Overall, they still rank 7th in the NFL in first down rate differential. Much healthier than a year ago, the Redskins are a solid team that should not be taken lightly, even after the result of last week’s game.

The Packers come into Washington as 3 point favorites, following their tie last week against the Minnesota Vikings. If Aaron Rodgers wasn’t dealing with an injury, this line might be appropriate, but he’s not 100% and could get knocked out of the game if he worsens the injury. I have this line calculated at Washington -1, so we’re getting good line value with +3. I don’t want to bet too heavily against Aaron Rodgers, but the Redskins will be a tough test for him on the road, given his injury situation.

Washington Redskins 30 Green Bay Packers 27 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: Washington +3

Confidence: Medium

Indianapolis Colts at Philadelphia Eagles: 2018 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (1-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-1)

Last week, the Colts were 5.5 point underdogs in Washington. They ended up winning that game 21-9, and, as a result, they are now only 6.5 point underdogs in Philadelphia, even though the Eagles are significantly more talented than the Redskins and are getting Carson Wentz back from his ACL tear this week. The Colts outplayed a solid Redskins team last week, but the game was closer than the final score. The Redskins won the first down battle 20 to 17 and the Colts only had 3 scoring drives, but they were 3 for 3 converting red zone opportunities into touchdowns, while the Redskins were 0-2 and had to settle for 4 field goal attempts on the day (including a miss).

This line suggests the Colts are only 3.5 points worse than the Eagles, so I think this line is too short. The Colts look better now than they did two weeks ago, with Andrew Luck clearly healthy under center and the emergence of second round rookie linebacker Darius Leonard on defense, but they still have one of the worst rosters outside of the quarterback position in the league, especially with the injuries they currently have: left tackle Anthony Castonzo, defensive tackle Denico Autry, cornerback Quincy Wilson, tight end Jack Doyle, and running back Marlon Mack.

The Eagles aren’t healthy either, with wide receivers Alshon Jeffery and Mike Wallace, running backs Jay Ajayi and Darren Sproles, and defensive tackle Timmy Jernigan all sidelined, but getting Wentz back could easily push this team back to their 2017 form in a hurry. They weren’t healthy last season either, with Jason Peters and Jordan Hicks injured, both of whom have returned, but they still were the top team in the NFC, which they should compete to be again in 2018. They should beat a mediocre AFC team by more than a touchdown. If Wentz was a little bit more of a sure thing in his first game back, this would be my Pick of the Week, but there’s enough line value here even if Wentz is at less than his best.

Philadelphia Eagles 31 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6.5

Confidence: High

Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins: 2018 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Oakland Raiders (0-2) at Miami Dolphins (2-0)

The Raiders have started 0-2, while the Dolphins have started 2-0, but I have the Raiders about a point better in my roster rankings. The Dolphins’ wins have come over the Jets and the primarily Blaine Gabbert led Titans, while the Raiders’ losses came against the Rams and Broncos. All 4 games these two teams have played have been competitive, with the one exception on the scoreboard being the Raiders’ loss to the Rams, but that game was close into the 4th quarter before late turnovers.

This line, favoring the Dolphins by 3.5 at home, suggests the opposite, that the Dolphins are a little bit better than the Raiders. That might have been the case before the Dolphins lost guard Josh Sitton, arguably their best offensive lineman, for the season with a shoulder injury. The free agent acquisition made their offensive line look passable for the first time in years in the opener and the Dolphins’ offensive line struggled mightily without him against the Jets.

This is also a much more important game for the Raiders than the Dolphins, so I expect them to be a lot more focused. While the Dolphins are already 2-0 and have arguably their biggest game of the season on deck, a trip to New England to face the Patriots, the Raiders are desperate for a win and don’t have any upcoming distractions, with only a home game against the Browns on deck. Underdogs are 78-44 ATS since 2014 before being favorites (which the Raiders will be next week) when their opponent will next be underdogs (which the Dolphins will be in New England). I wouldn’t take the Raiders at 3 because we’re not getting enough line value, but they’re worth a bet at 3.5. They should be able to keep this one close even if they can’t pull off the upset.

Oakland Raiders 27 Miami Dolphins 26 Upset Pick +145

Pick against the spread: Oakland +3.5

Confidence: Medium

Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens: 2018 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (2-0) at Baltimore Ravens (1-1)

The Ravens lost in Cincinnati last week, but they remain overrated, favored by 5.5 points this week over the Broncos. The Ravens went 9-7 last season, finished 10th in first down rate, and had the best point differential (+92) of any team that missed the post-season, but they had the they had the benefit of facing 6 backup quarterbacks (Jacoby Brissett, Brett Hundley, Matt Moore, Tom Savage, EJ Manuel, Case Keenum), all of whom except Keenum played terribly last season. Outside of games against backup quarterbacks and two games against the Browns, the Ravens went just 2-6 in 2017.

In 2018, the Ravens opened against a below backup caliber quarterback in Nathan Peterman and blew the Bills out 47-3 week 1, but then lost against a more competent opponent last week in Cincinnati. The Ravens return home this week, but the Broncos are a step up in talent from the Bengals. A 5-11 team a year ago, the Broncos stabilized the quarterback position with Case Keenum this off-season and have started 2-0. They haven’t faced that tough of a schedule, getting the Raiders and Seahawks at home, but I don’t think the Ravens are that much tougher, even if this one is on the road.

Already missing top cornerback Jimmy Smith with a suspension, the Ravens could be without arguably their two best defensive players, nose tackle Michael Pierce and middle linebacker CJ Mosley, who are highly questionable after missing practice all week. I have this line calculated at even and I think there’s a really good chance the Broncos at least keep it within the 5.5 points. This is my Pick of the Week.

Denver Broncos 24 Baltimore Ravens 23 Upset Pick +190

Pick against the spread: Denver +5.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week