Month: October 2018

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers: 2018 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (6-0) at San Francisco 49ers (1-5)

Last week, the 49ers played on Monday Night Football in Green Bay. I picked the Packers for a high confidence pick as 9.5 point home favorites, as they were going into a bye and seemed like the significantly better team. However, the 49ers surprised a lot of people and made it a game, losing by just 3 points, 33-30, in a game in which 49ers backup quarterback CJ Beathard matched Aaron Rodgers point for point until the very end, when Rodgers pulled off a game winning drive.

Many, including myself, completely wrote the 49ers off when they lost Jimmy Garoppolo for the season, but, while they’re not going to contend for anything at 1-5 with a backup quarterback, their offense has actually played pretty well since turning to Beathard, as they’ve had a first down rate of at least 38% in all 3 of Beathard’s starts and still rank 9th in the NFL on the season in first down rate at 40.26% even without Garoppolo. Their defense hasn’t been great, ranking 24th in first down rate allowed at 37.94%, but they still rank 10th in first down rate differential at +2.32%.

Their record won’t show they’ve played well, but none of their losses have come by more than 11 points, so they aren’t getting blown out, and they’ve played both the Chargers and Packers within a field goal on the road with Beathard under center. That’s all despite the fact that they are dead last with a -11 turnover margin on the season. Turnover margins tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week and basis, as teams, on average, tend to have a turnover margin of about +0.0 per game, regardless of what their turnover margin was in the previous game.

Even if the 49ers don’t play turnover neutral football the rest of the way, they’re highly unlikely to continue losing the turnover margin by close to 2 turnovers per game. At their current rate, they are on pace for a turnover margin of -29 on the season, which would be the worst turnover margin in recent memory, even worse than the -28 mark the winless Browns finished with last season (the 2000 Chargers also had a -28 turnover margin in a 1-15 season). Beathard has had issues with turnovers, but he’s also shown a lot of arm talent, completing 64.0% of his passes for an average of 7.83 YPA.

Maybe it shouldn’t be a surprise that Beathard has played well. After all, he was a 3rd round pick last year, hand selected by new head coach Kyle Shanahan, who saw him as the potential future of this franchise before the opportunity to acquire Jimmy Garoppolo presented itself. Beathard is a great fit in Shanahan’s scheme and his supporting cast is also playing at a high level, thanks in large part to Shanahan’s coaching.

Unfortunately, it seems I’m not the only one who has been impressed by Beathard so far, as this line shifted from Rams -12.5 on the early line last week to -9.5 this week, undoubtedly as a result of the 49ers’ near win in Green Bay on national television. At +12.5, the 49ers would have been a no brainer, but we’ve lost a lot of line value at +9.5, as I have this line calculated at 7.5. The 49ers have a good chance to keep this one relatively close at home, especially since the Rams’ defense has not been as good since losing cornerback Aqib Talib to injury a few weeks ago, but I’d need at least 10 points to bet money on the 49ers. If this line moves back up closer to gametime, I will reconsider.

Los Angeles Rams 31 San Francisco 49ers 24

Pick against the spread: San Francisco +9.5

Confidence: Low

Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts: 2018 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (2-4) at Indianapolis Colts (1-5)

After being blown out in the first two weeks of the season by a combined 55 points against the Ravens and Chargers, the Bills have played better football in recent weeks, going 3-1 ATS, pulling off two upset victories (@ Minnesota and vs. Tennessee) and nearly pulling off a third last week in Houston. The defense has been the reason for their improvement and they are now up to 12th in first down rate allowed at 35.45%.

That’s about where the good news ends for the Bills though. Even with an improved defense, the Bills have yet to win the first down rate battle in any of their 6 games, even their two wins, and they rank dead last in first down rate differential at -10.31%. The defense has been solid, but the offense has been horrendous, ranking dead last in first down rate, picking up a first down or touchdown on just 25.14% of offensive snaps.

Making matters worse offensively, the Bills lost starting quarterback Josh Allen for an extended period of time with an elbow injury. Allen was not playing well before the injury, but this offense’s problems go far beyond the quarterback position and, thanks to their bizarre pre-season trade of AJ McCarron to the Raiders for a 5th round pick, the Bills are completely without an even remotely capable backup. Second year quarterback Nathan Peterman has not resembled an NFL quarterback in limited action thus far in his career, so the Bills will have to turn to veteran Derek Anderson, who is 35 years old, hasn’t been a full-time starter since 2010, and just arrived in Buffalo last week. He’ll likely get better as he spends more time with his new teammates, but if Anderson is an upgrade over Peterman this week, it’ll only be by default.

Despite the Allen injury, this line barely moved from last week to this week, as the Colts were 5.5 point favorites on the early line and are now favored by a touchdown. The Colts have injury problems too, but they’ve had them for most of the season and they are actually getting healthier, with left tackle Anthony Castonzo returning two weeks ago against New England, running back Marlon Mack returning last week, and wide receiver TY Hilton and defensive tackle Margus Hunt returning this week.

The Colts are still missing key players like tight end Jack Doyle and defensive tackle Denico Autry, but even without those two I still have this line calculated at Indianapolis -10, so we’re getting good line value with the Colts at -7. The Colts are just 1-5 on the season, but 3 of the 5 losses came by 8 points or fewer, with their other losses coming against the Bengals, who got a late return touchdown to push the margin of victory to multiple scores, and the Patriots, who are one of the better teams in the league.

The Colts are also in a much better spot. While they have another easy game on deck against the Raiders, the Bills have to turn around and play the Patriots on Monday Night Football next week, a game in which they are 10.5 point home underdogs on the early line. Big underdogs tend to struggle before being big underdogs again, going 46-65 ATS as underdogs of 6+ before being underdogs of 6+ the following week, and teams in general tend to struggle before big home games, going 30-54 ATS before being home underdogs of 6+.

All three of the Bills’ covers have come against opponents in bad spots. The Vikings were coming off of a tie with the Packers and had another game against the Rams in 4 days on Thursday Night Football. The Titans were coming off of an overtime upset win over the Eagles and had another tough game against the Ravens on deck. The Texans were coming off of an overtime win over the Cowboys and had a trip to Jacksonville on deck.

This week, it’s the Bills in a bad spot. With a quarterback that just arrived last week with a much bigger game on deck, the Bills could easily not give their best effort and if they don’t they won’t have much chance of keeping this one close. In a week without a good top choice (I may not have any other high confidence picks), the Colts are my Pick of the Week, as they should be able to hand the Bills their 4th double digit loss of the year and their 9th since the start of the 2017 season.

Indianapolis Colts 23 Buffalo Bills 10

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -7

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals: 2018 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (2-4) at Arizona Cardinals (1-5)

The Broncos are a tough team to evaluate. They won their first 2 games, but by a combined 4 points against the Seahawks and Raiders. Since then, they’ve lost their last 4, but they’ve also been competitive with both the Chiefs and the Rams, who are two of the best teams in the league. They lost by double digits in both Baltimore and New York, but Baltimore has played at a high level this year as well, while that Jets loss came in a terrible spot, sandwiched between the Chiefs and Rams on their schedule. They’ve also won the first down rate battle in 4 of 6 games and have a +3.01% first down rate differential on the season, with 133 first downs to 118 allowed, and they rank 13th in DVOA as well.

On paper, this is a solid team talentwise and one that shouldn’t have much trouble covering against a terrible Arizona team in a game they pretty much just have to win to cover as 1.5-point road favorites. However, they’re also poorly coached and have been prone to let down games following big games, like the one they had last week against the Rams, especially on the road, where they are just 1-8 (1-8 ATS) under head coach Vance Joseph. I’m taking the Broncos, but I can’t take them with any confidence.

Denver Broncos 20 Arizona Cardinals 17

Pick against the spread: Denver -1.5

Confidence: None

2018 Week 6 NFL Pick Results

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Week 6

Total Against the Spread: 9-5-1

Pick of the Week: 0-0-1

High Confidence Picks: 0-2

Medium Confidence Picks: 3-1

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 3-3-1

Low Confidence Picks: 2-2

No Confidence Picks: 4-0

Upset Picks: 1-2

2018

Total Against the Spread: 54-36-3

Pick of the Week: 2-3-1

High Confidence Picks: 7-5

Medium Confidence Picks: 19-9

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 28-17-1

Low Confidence Picks: 9-9

No Confidence Picks: 17-10-2

Upset Picks: 8-9-1

All-Time (Since 2013)

Total Against the Spread: 739-635-39 (53.68%)

Pick of the Week: 53-37-3 (58.60%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 358-263-15 (57.47%)

Upset Picks: 115-145-1 (44.25%)

2018 Week 6 NFL Picks

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Pick of the Week

NE -3 vs. KC

High Confidence Picks

CIN -1.5 vs. PIT

GB -9.5 vs. SF

Medium Confidence Picks

PHI -2 @ NYG

DAL +3.5 vs. JAX

TEN +2.5 vs. BAL

WAS +1 vs. CAR

Low Confidence Picks

CHI -7 @ MIA

IND +2 @ NYJ

BUF +10 @ HOU

DEN +7 vs. LAR

No Confidence Picks

LAC +1 @ CLE

SEA -2.5 vs. OAK

ATL -3 vs. TB

ARZ +10.5 @ MIN

Upset Picks

WAS +100 vs. CAR

TEN +120 vs. BAL

IND +110 @ NYJ

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons: 2018 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-2) at Atlanta Falcons (1-4)

These two teams are pretty similar, as they have good offenses, but horrendous defenses. The Falcons started the season as a balanced team, but they have had terrible injury luck on defense, with defensive tackle Grady Jarrett, linebacker Deion Jones, and safeties Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen out with injuries. As a result, a team that looked like a possible contender coming into the season has fallen to 1-4 and looks unlikely to improve on defense any time soon.

On the other side, the Buccaneers problem on defense isn’t really injuries; they just have a weak defense. They rank dead last in first down rate allowed at 45.88%, one spot ahead of the Falcons at 45.02%. Fortunately, their offense has been strong to compensate somewhat, ranking 7th in first down rate at 40.56%, a few spots ahead of the Falcons, who rank 10th at 39.25% and continue to be without running back Devonta Freeman with injury.

With Jameis Winston taking his starting job back from Ryan Fitzpatrick, after briefly being benched upon his return from suspension, the Buccaneers’ offense could conceivably improve going forward. Winston played well when healthy last season and has arguably the most talented receiving corps in the NFL, especially with tight end OJ Howard looking likely to return from injury this week. I have the Falcons a couple spots higher in my rankings, so I’m taking them as mere 3 point home favorites, but this game is close to a toss up and could easily push. At 3.5, I’d take the Buccaneers.

Atlanta Falcons 34 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -3

Confidence: None

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings: 2018 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (1-4) at Minnesota Vikings (2-2-1)

I’m torn on this one. On one hand, the Cardinals are one of the worst teams in the league and should only be picked if you are getting great line value with them, while the Vikings are in a great spot with only a trip to New York to play the Jets on deck. Teams are 79-61 ATS since 2014 before being road favorites of 4+, which the Vikings are expected to be next week in New York. With no upcoming distractions, they could easily take care of business at home against a much inferior team.

On the other hand, the Vikings enter this game missing several key players, so the Cardinals could easily keep it closer than expected. Already missing defensive end Everson Griffen with injury, the Vikings will also be without left tackle Riley Reiff and talented starting safety Andrew Sendejo with injury this week. Cornerback Trae Waynes and running back Dalvin Cook are expected to return from short absences, but the Vikings are far from 100% right now, so we’re getting a little bit of line value with the visitors. It’s not enough to take them with any confidence, but they are the pick for pick ‘em purposes.

Minnesota Vikings 23 Arizona Cardinals 13

Pick against the spread: Arizona +10.5

Confidence: None

Oakland Raiders vs. Seattle Seahawks: 2018 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Oakland Raiders (1-4) vs. Seattle Seahawks (2-3) in London

This game features the Raiders and Seahawks in London. Typically in neutral site games, the rule of thumb is that the better team typically covers, as favorites are 21-9 ATS all-time. That makes sense, as better teams are more likely to be better prepared for a weird situation like this. The crowd is also likely to be slanted towards the better team. The Seahawks are favored in this one, but only by 2.5 points. While favorites of 4+ are 13-1 ATS in neutral site games, favorites of less than 4 are just 8-8 ATS.

The Seahawks also are not a good team right now, thanks to several personnel major losses over the past couple seasons and several major injuries, including stud safety Earl Thomas and every down linebacker KJ Wright. They’re better than the Raiders, but only by default, as the Raiders are one of the worst teams in the league, especially with talented left guard Kelechi Osemele out for the second straight game. I’m taking the Seahawks because they are the slightly better team and only really need to win to cover, but this is a no confidence bet.

Seattle Seahawks 23 Oakland Raiders 20

Pick against the spread: Seattle -2.5

Confidence: None

Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns: 2018 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Chargers (3-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-2-1)

The Browns have been near the top of my underrated list all season and I’ve picked them against the spread every week so far this season, including money bets on them against the Steelers, Jets, and Ravens. The Browns have covered or pushed in all 5 games, with their only non-cover coming in a push as 3-point underdogs in Oakland in a game they led by 8 with the ball under 2 minutes left. In fact, if not for a couple bad calls in that game and some missed kicks week 1 and week 2, the Browns could easily be 5-0 right now.

Of course, they also haven’t won a game by more than 4 points, so they could also easily be 1-4 right now, but my point is that the Browns are a competitive football team this season. They’ve drastically upgraded their quarterback situation, which has allowed a solid all around roster to shine more, after Deshone Kizer’s turnover proneness made it near impossible for them to win games in 2017.

Unfortunately, the public seems to be catching on a little bit, as the Browns are 1-point favorites this week at home against the Chargers. Last week, the Browns were field goal home underdogs against the Ravens. The Ravens and Chargers are about even in my rankings, with the Ravens only a couple spots ahead, so we’re not getting the same line value with the Browns this week. In fact, I actually have this line calculated at even, so, if anything we’re getting a tiny bit of line value with the Chargers.

The Chargers have no homefield advantage in Los Angeles, so I always like to bet on them away from home (30-19-3 ATS on the road since 2012, including 5-3-2 ATS since moving to Los Angeles last season), and the Browns could be a little tired this weekend after playing a ridiculous 3rd overtime game in 5 weeks last week. The Chargers aren’t exactly in a great spot either though, with a trip to London on deck (teams are 16-24 ATS all-time before a trip to London). In a game that’s a complete toss up, I’m taking the point for a no confidence pick. Maybe it’ll be another tie. Both teams have suspect kicking units.

Los Angeles Chargers 20 Cleveland Browns 20

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers +1

Confidence: None

Jacksonville Jaguars at Dallas Cowboys: 2018 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (3-2) at Dallas Cowboys (2-3)

This line was Jacksonville -2 last week on the early line, but bizarrely it has since shifted to Jacksonville -3.5 and it’s not clear why. The Cowboys narrowly lost in Houston last week, while the Jaguars lost pretty easily in Kansas City, so nothing from last week’s results would seem to justify a significant movement like that. A point and a half might not seem like much, but about a sixth of games are decided by exactly 3 points, so this line moved across a very key number for seemingly no good reason other than heavy action on Jacksonville.

This line is the equivalent of Dallas being -9.5 in Jacksonville, which is what the Jets were a couple weeks back and the Cowboys are definitely more talented than the Jets. The Jaguars were also just -3 week 1 in New York against a Giants team that the Cowboys beat the following week fairly easily and have outplayed since that game. Even if this line was still at -2, we’d still be getting some line value with the Cowboys, as I have this line calculated at even.

A lot is made about the Cowboys’ offensive struggles, but they’ve had a top-10 defense this year and continue to play well despite the loss of linebacker Sean Lee due to injury. Ex-safety Byron Jones has broken out since being moved to cornerback, while the Cowboys’ young linebackers Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch have played more than well enough to hold down the fort in Lee’s absence. The Jaguars have offensive issues without Leonard Fournette and down to their 3rd string left tackle, so the Cowboys can definitely keep this one close and even possibly pull off the upset. The Cowboys have not been a good home team in recent years (24-43-1 ATS since 2010), which is why this isn’t a bigger bet, but the Cowboys are worth a bet at +3.5.

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 Dallas Cowboys 19

Pick against the spread: Dallas +3.5

Confidence: Medium