Year: 2018

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns: 2018 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (3-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-2-1)

This line was Baltimore -1 a week ago, but it has since shifted to Baltimore -3, a fairly significant line movement, considering about 1 out of 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. That’s because the Ravens won in Pittsburgh last week, but the Steelers have been an underwhelming team all year and were not nearly as good as their record last season either. Just 5 of their 14 wins over the past 2 seasons have come by more than 7 points, including just 2 since the midpoint of last season, a span of 13 games.

The Ravens are overrated coming off of that win, as many now regard them as a contender in the AFC. They are 3-1, but have yet to beat a top level team and most of their wins last season came against backup quarterbacks. They get cornerback Jimmy Smith back from suspension this week, but key defensive lineman Michael Pierce is highly questionable as he continues to deal with a foot injury he suffered a few weeks ago.

The Ravens a solid team, but they shouldn’t be favored by a field goal on the road against a quality Browns team. The Browns lost last week in Oakland, but they basically had a win taken off the board by an overturned first down that did not look conclusive. If not for that and some blunders in the kicking game early in the season, the Browns could actually be 4-0 right now or at least 3-1. They continue to be underrated because they’re the Browns, but they’re much better quarterbacked this season and have a good chance to win this one straight up at home.

Cleveland Browns 19 Baltimore Ravens 17 Upset Pick +145

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +3

Confidence: Medium

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles: 2018 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (1-2-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-2)

This game is a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship, with the Vikings returning to Philadelphia, where they lost 38-7 last year. The common narrative is that both teams have disappointed since then and that seems to be reflected in this line, as the Eagles are just 3 point favorites at home, suggesting that these two teams are about even, but the Eagles are much better positioned coming into this game.

The Vikings rank 23rd in first down rate differential at -2.15%, while the Eagles rank 7th at +2.95%. The Vikings’ secondary has surprisingly struggled and is now without starting cornerback Trae Wayne with a concussion, while their defensive line is not nearly the same with Everson Griffen out. A defense that suffered next to no injuries last season is showing it’s cracks. On offense, their passing game has been potent, but they’ve struggled to run the ball with Dalvin Cook in and out of the lineup with injuries and an offensive line that struggles to block.

The Eagles, meanwhile, haven’t played quite as well as they did last year, but Carson Wentz looks great in his return, which is the most important thing, now going into his 3rd straight start, and they could easily be 3-1 right now, after an overtime loss in Tennessee last week. If the Eagles were 3-1 right now, I think they’d be favored by at least 4.5 points, probably 6 points in this game. Even in a loss, the Eagles played well on the road against a solid team.

The Eagles are not fully healthy with running back Darren Sproles, defensive tackle Timmy Jernigan, safety Rodney McLeod, and defensive end Derek Barnett out, but they weren’t fully healthy last year either. They’ve also gotten running back Jay Ajayi and wide receiver Alshon Jeffery back from injury and overall still have one of the best rosters in the NFL. The Vikings are a solid team, but I have this line calculated at Philadelphia -7.5, so we’re getting great line value with the Eagles this week. My one concern with the Eagles is that they have to play the Giants again in 4 days on Thursday Night Football, but this is a much bigger game for them. Without another obvious choice this week, the Eagles are my Pick of the Week.

Philadelphia Eagles 31 Minnesota Vikings 23

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans: 2018 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (2-2) at Houston Texans (1-3)

The Texans picked up their first win of the season last win in Indianapolis, but they’ve still gotten off to a disappointing start to their season. Expected to be Super Bowl contenders, the Texans are just 1-3 with their only win coming in overtime against a team that’s 1-4. The Texans have been better than their record and Deshaun Watson has continued to play at a high level in his 2nd season in the league, but the Texans have struggled to pass protect and to run the ball and their defense has been underwhelming.

This line suggests the Texans are a little bit better than the Cowboys, but I think that’s backwards. The Cowboys probably aren’t going to make the playoffs in the loaded NFC, but they’re not a bad team either. They’re without Sean Lee with injury, but young linebackers Leighton Vander Esch and Jaylon Smith have played well in his absence and they get their top interior pass rusher David Irving back from suspension this week.

The Cowboys have also been a good road team in recent years, going 36-30 on the road since 2010 (+0.09 points per game), while going just 34-34 at home (+1.19 points per game). The Cowboys have a national fanbase that typically fills road stadiums pretty well and I would expect a lot of Cowboys fans at this game in Houston. I would only give the Texans about a 1-1.5 points for homefield advantage this week rather than the typical 3, so I have this line calculated at even. The Cowboys are worth a play at +3.5 and have a good chance to win straight up.

Dallas Cowboys 24 Houston Texans 23 Upset Pick +150

Pick against the spread: Dallas +3.5

Confidence: Medium

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers: 2018 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (0-4) at San Francisco 49ers (1-3)

A week ago, this line favored the 49ers at home by 2.5, but the line shifted to 4 this week. That might not look like much, but only 4% of games are decided by 2 points or fewer, as opposed to 24% of games decided by 4 points or fewer. That line movement is likely because the 49ers did not look as bad as expected in their first game with backup quarterback CJ Beathard in the lineup, losing by 2 in Los Angeles to the Chargers as 10.5 point underdogs. I think that’s an overreaction. The Chargers’ defense has been terrible this season without Joey Bosa, so that’s not really that impressive and the Cardinals easily could have won their first game of the season against the Seahawks last week if they hadn’t missed two makeable field goals.

Without Jimmy Garoppolo, the 49ers have arguably the weakest roster in the NFL and Garoppolo isn’t their only injury, with left tackle Joe Staley and top cornerback Richard Sherman both looking like gametime decisions. The Cardinals aren’t much better, but they have more upside with rookie quarterback Josh Rosen making his 2nd career start and this line suggests that the 49ers are better. I have this line calculated at San Francisco -1, so we’re getting significant line value with the visitors. They’re worth a bet.

San Francisco 49ers 24 Arizona Cardinals 23

Pick against the spread: Arizona +4

Confidence: Medium

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots: 2018 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (1-3) at New England Patriots (2-2)

A week after floundering in Detroit, the Patriots returned home and dominated a previously unbeaten Miami team in a 38-7 win, extending their incredible 287 game streak of not losing 3 straight games. The return of defensive end Trey Flowers and safety Patrick Chung after they had missed the previous game and a half with injury made all the difference on defense. Both went down around the same time week 2 against Jacksonville and that’s coincidentally right when the Patriots’ defense fell apart, after a solid opener against the Texans.

This week, they get a key piece back on offense, with wide receiver Julian Edelman returning from a 4-game suspension, giving Brady a familiar target and giving this offense a much needed threat at wide receiver. Edelman missed all of last season with a torn ACL and hasn’t played since Super Bowl LI, so it’s fair to expect some rust from him, but his return, combined with Josh Gordon’s continued integration into this offense, makes this suddenly a respectable receiving corps. The Patriots could be without Rob Gronkowski this week on a short week, which would obviously hurt them, but there’s optimism he can play after he got a limited practice in on Wednesday.

The Colts, on the other hand, are really banged up. While left tackle Anthony Castonzo could make his season debut after missing 4 games with a hamstring injury, the Colts are missing 3 other tackles with injury and will have to kick 2nd round rookie guard Braden Smith outside to right tackle. They will also be without top receiver TY Hilton, starting tight end Jack Doyle, and starting cornerback Kenny Moore, while linebacker Darius Leonard and center Ryan Kelly are both considered gametime decisions. Andrew Luck has played well for them this season, despite not having his full arm strength back, but the rest of this roster is pretty mediocre and they’re in rough injury shape on a short week.

The Colts are also in a terrible spot on a short week in New England. Excluding games between familiar divisional opponents and games where the road team is favored, home teams are 32-15 ATS on Thursday Night Football. Playing on a short week is tough enough, but when you have to travel as well and play a superior and relatively unfamiliar opponent, it puts you at a disadvantage. The Colts are also coming off of an overtime loss to the Texans and teams are just 6-25 ATS all-time on Thursday Night Football after an overtime game, including 2-18 ATS on the road. The Colts will likely be exhausted and unable to keep it close this week. We aren’t getting a ton of line value with the Patriots as 10 point favorites, but they’re a much superior team and they’re in a great spot, so they are worth a bet this week.

New England Patriots 34 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against the spread: New England -10

Confidence: Medium

2018 Week 4 NFL Pick Results

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Week 4

Total Against the Spread: 11-3-1

Pick of the Week: 1-0

High Confidence Picks: 3-0

Medium Confidence Picks: 5-0

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 9-0

Low Confidence Picks: 1-2

No Confidence Picks: 1-1-1

Upset Picks: 1-0

2018

Total Against the Spread: 39-22-2

Pick of the Week: 2-2

High Confidence Picks: 6-3

Medium Confidence Picks: 11-7

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 19-12

Low Confidence Picks: 7-4

No Confidence Picks: 13-6-2

Upset Picks: 6-5-1

All-Time (Since 2013)

Total Against the Spread: 730-630-38 (53.58%)

Pick of the Week: 53-36-2 (59.34%)

High Confidence Picks: 86-62-6 (57.79%)

Medium Confidence Picks: 210-160-6 (56.65%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 349-258-14 (57.05%)

Low Confidence Picks: 196-187-13 (51.54%)

No Confidence Picks: 185-185-11 (50.00%)

Upset Picks: 113-141-1 (44.51%)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears: 2018 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) at Chicago Bears (2-1)

Ryan Fitzpatrick played incredibly well in the first two games of the season, but he fell back to earth last week, with a 3 turnover performance in a home loss to the Steelers, who have struggled defensively this season. Fitzpatrick is a gunslinger and has a lot of receiving talent to work with, so he could continue to post good passing yardage numbers, but he’s a 35-year-old career journeyman who is unlikely to suddenly be a different quarterback in his 14th season season in the league. With Jameis Winston returning from suspension this week, it would not be a surprise to see the Buccaneers pull Fitzpatrick if he turns the ball over early like he did last week. Winston may be an upgrade, but he’s had turnover problems in the past as well and has not seen a lot of first team reps.

Regardless of who is under center for the Buccaneers, the bigger concern is their defense, which ranks 28th in first down rate allowed at 42.13% and is unlikely to improve going forward. The Bears are a much more complete team, with one of the top defenses in the league, a strong offensive line and running game, and a solid receiving corps. Their obvious weakness is second year quarterback Mitch Trubisky, who continues to look like a bottom-5 starting quarterback, despite an improved coaching staff and an improved supporting cast.

Trubisky should be able to have a solid game against a terrible Tampa Bay defense though. This line, favoring Chicago by 3 points at home, suggests that these two teams are about even, which is not the case. I have this line calculated at about 6.5, so we’re getting good line value with the Bears, who arguably have the most non-quarterback talent in the NFL. They’re a strong play this week and should win this one with relative ease.

Chicago Bears 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

Pick against the spread: Chicago -3

Confidence: High

New Orleans Saints at New York Giants: 2018 Week 4 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (2-1) at New York Giants (1-2)

A popular Super Bowl pick, the Saints kind of stumbled out of the gate this season, losing to the Buccaneers week 1 and almost losing to the Browns week 2, despite being big home favorites in both games. As a result of that, it seems like people have kind of soured on them, as they are mere 3 point favorites here in New York against a Giants team that is one of the weaker in the NFC. I think that’s an overreaction. They still have one of the most talented rosters in the league and they’ve gotten off to slow starts before hitting their stride in other recent years too, going 2-12 ATS in the first two weeks of the season since 2012, but 51-38 ATS the rest of the season.

The Saints won last week in overtime in Atlanta and now head to New York to take on a Giants team that is pretty banged up right now. Already missing top edge rusher Olivier Vernon for the 4th straight week and starting cornerback Eli Apple for the 2nd straight week, the Giants will also be without starting tight end Evan Engram with an injury this week. I have this line calculated at New Orleans -7, so we’re getting plenty of line value with the Saints at 3. They’re still worth a bet at 3.5, but 3 is available in enough places that you should be able to find it. At 3, the Saints are my Pick of the Week.

New Orleans Saints 31 New York Giants 23

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys: 2018 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (1-2) at Dallas Cowboys (1-2)

This is another one I’m torn on. One one hand, the Cowboys are the slightly better team and are more likely to be focused, as the Lions could be a little flat a week after such a big victory over the Patriots. On the other hand, the Cowboys are missing linebacker Sean Lee, who they always miss significantly when he’s hurt, and they have had very little homefield advantage in recent years. Though they are 36-30 on the road since 2010, outscoring opponents by an average of 0.09 points per game, they are just 33-34 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.19 points per game, suggesting homefield hasn’t been worth a full point to them in recent years. I’m taking the Cowboys, but this is a no confidence pick and could easily be a push.

Dallas Cowboys 23 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against the spread: Dallas -3

Confidence: None