Year: 2018

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts: 2018 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2018 NFL Picks, 2018 Week 4 NFL Picks, Colts, NFL Picks, Texans

Houston Texans (0-3) at Indianapolis Colts (1-2)

The Texans, a trendy Super Bowl pick at the start of the season, have begun the year 0-3. They’ve been better than their record suggests though, as all 3 losses were close. Last week’s upset loss to the Giants is concerning, but they lost week 1 in New England and lost week 2 in Tennessee because of a fake punt, in a game in which they won the first down rate battle by 7.27%. On the season, they are just -0.07% in first down rate differential, much better than their record suggests, and it’s likely they’ll improve going forward, as Deshaun Watson continues to work back from his ACL tear.

They have a good shot at their first win this week in Indianapolis. The Colts have gotten surprisingly decent play from an inexperienced defense, but their offense has been sluggish and overall they rank 27th in first down rate differential at -3.75%. Their offense could improve going forward as Andrew Luck continues to work back from shoulder surgery, but they remain without starting left tackle Anthony Castonzo and are now without starting right tackle Joe Haeg, so I would expect them to continue struggling at least until Castonzo returns. On defense, it remains to be seen if they can continue playing at the level they’ve been playing.

I wish we were getting more line value with the Texans, who are mere 1.5 point underdogs on the road here in Indianapolis, but they’re in a great spot. Not only are they desperate for their first win, but they don’t have any upcoming distractions, with only a home game against the Cowboys on deck. The Colts, meanwhile, have to turn around and go to New England on a short week for Thursday Night Football. Not only are favorites 48-68 ATS since 2012 before Thursday Night Football, but favorites are 72-120 ATS, over that same time period, before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites. The Colts could easily get caught looking forward to next week a little bit. The Texans are worth a small bet this week.

Houston Texans 20 Indianapolis Colts 17 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Houston +1.5

Confidence: Medium

Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams: 2018 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2018 NFL Picks, 2018 Week 4 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Rams, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (1-1-1) at Los Angeles Rams (3-0)

Teams typically struggle before these Thursday night games, especially favorites, who are 48-68 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2012. The Rams and Vikings were both favorites last week, but had opposite results. The Vikings were shockingly blown out 27-6 at home by the lowly Bills, while the Rams dominated a good Chargers team 35-23, picking up 33 first downs to the Chargers’ 16.

While the Rams win was definitely legitimate, the Vikings loss was not nearly as bad as the final score showed, as the Vikings had 21 first downs to 16 for the Bills. The Vikings lost because of a -3 turnover margin, including two early turnovers in their own territory that got them down big early and forced them to completely abandon their game plan, but turnover margins tend to be unpredictable on a week-to-week basis. For example, teams with a turnover margin of -3, on average, have a turnover margin of -0.1 the following week. Just because the Vikings turned the ball over against the Bills doesn’t mean they will against the Rams. The Vikings will also be much more focused this week after getting caught looking ahead last week.

The Rams will be focused too though, and they don’t need to win the turnover battle to win this game, as they have a league best +16.92% first down rate differential. That’s more than double the Ravens who are in 2nd at +8.01 (most of which comes over their week 1 blowout game over the Bills). Behind the Ravens are the Redskins at +6.67% and both the Ravens and Redskins lost the first down rate battle in week 2 losses. The Rams have won all 3 of their games by at least 12 points and have won the first down rate battle by at least 8.85% in all 3 games. It’s early and they haven’t had the toughest schedule, but they’ve been the undisputed best team in the league through 3 games and they have the talent to suggest they can continue playing at a high level all season long.

We got some line movement as a result of the Vikings’ loss, as the line moved from 4 on the early line last week to 6.5 this week, but we’re still not really getting any line value with the Vikings. The Rams have lost their top two cornerbacks Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib with injury, but the Vikings are at less than 100% as well, with top edge rusher Everson Griffen out for the second week in a row and feature back Dalvin Cook looking 50/50 at best on a short week, as he deals with a lingering hamstring pull. The Vikings really missed both of those players against the Bills.

The Rams are also in a good spot at home on a short week. Excluding games between familiar divisional opponents and games where the road team is favored, home teams are 31-15 ATS on Thursday Night Football. Playing on a short week is tough enough, but when you have to travel as well, it puts you at a disadvantage. There’s not enough here to take the Rams confidently and I might even switch my pick to the Vikings at 7, but Rams are my pick at 6.5.

Los Angeles Rams 30 Minnesota Vikings 23

Pick against the spread: LA Rams -6.5

Confidence: None

2018 Week 3 NFL Picks

stevenlourie 2018 NFL Picks, 2018 Week 3 NFL Picks, NFL Picks

Pick of the Week

DEN +5.5 @ BAL

High Confidence

NO +3 @ ATL

PHI -6.5 vs. IND

Medium Confidence

CLE -3 vs. NYJ

NE -6.5 @ DET

TB +1.5 vs. PIT

OAK +3.5 @ MIA

LAC +7 @ LAR

WAS +3 vs. GB

Low Confidence

CIN +3 @ CAR

SF +6 @ KC

No Confidence

TEN +10 @ JAX

NYG +6 @ HOU

SEA -1.5 vs. DAL

ARZ +5 vs. CHI

BUF +16.5 @ MIN

Upset Picks

CIN +125 @ CAR

TB +105 vs. PIT

WAS +120 vs. GB

OAK +145 @ MIA

DEN +190 @ BAL

NO +120 @ ATL

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2018 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2018 NFL Picks, 2018 Week 3 NFL Picks, Jaguars, NFL Picks, Titans

Tennessee Titans (1-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-0)

This is probably the toughest game of the week to pick. A line is posted at Jacksonville -10, but we won’t know until tomorrow if Tennessee quarterback Marcus Mariota will be healthy enough to play, after missing last week and being limited all week in practice with a nerve injury in his elbow. If Mariota plays, this 10 point line is probably way too big, although Mariota has struggled when he’s tried to play through injuries in the past.

If Mariota doesn’t play and Blaine Gabbert starts against the Jaguars, this line is pretty appropriate. The Jaguars don’t have any upcoming distractions, with only a home game against the Jets on deck, and favorites of 7+ are 49-29 ATS since 2014 before being favorites of 7+ again, so they could easily take care of business against an inferior Tennessee team starting a backup quarterback. I’m taking the Titans for now on the off change Mariota can play and keep this one close, but I may change my pick in the morning if Mariota is ruled out.

Jacksonville Jaguars 23 Tennessee Titans 14

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +10

Confidence: None

Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings: 2018 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2018 NFL Picks, 2018 Week 3 NFL Picks, Bills, NFL Picks, Vikings

Buffalo Bills (0-2) at Minnesota Vikings (1-0-1)

The Vikings are in a bad spot this week. Not only are they coming off of a tough tie in one of their biggest games of the season in Green Bay against the Packers, but, after this easy home game against the Bills, the Vikings have another one of the biggest games of their season in Los Angeles against the Rams. Favorites of 10 or more are 37-54 ATS since 2002 before being underdogs of 3 or more (the Vikings are 5 point underdogs on the early line), as big favorites understandably tend to struggle with a much more talented opponent on deck.

Making things tougher, that game against the Rams is on Thursday Night Football, just 4 days after this one, so it’s very possible the Vikings are not totally focused this week.  Favorites are just 47-67 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2012. The Vikings are also pretty banged up going into this one, holding out several players with an eye on next week. Already missing center Pat Elflein, the Vikings will also be without featured running back Dalvin Cook, top defensive end Everson Griffen, and valuable blocking tight end David Morgan.

Does all this mean I would recommend betting on the Bills this week as 16.5 point underdogs? Absolutely not. The Bills are one of the worst, if not the worst team in the league. Even with all of the players the Vikings are missing, I still have this line calculated at -14. The Bills also aren’t in a good spot, with another tough game against the Packers on deck. Teams are 26-39 ATS since 2014 as 7+ point underdogs before being 7+ point underdogs again. It’s entirely possible the Bills could keep this a 10 or 14 point game against a banged up Minnesota team in a bad spot, but they could still easily lose by 17 or 21. I don’t want to bet my money one way or the other, though the Bills are the pick for pick ‘em purposes.

Minnesota Vikings 28 Buffalo Bills 13

Pick against the spread: Buffalo +16.5

Confidence: None

Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks: 2018 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2018 NFL Picks, 2018 Week 3 NFL Picks, Cowboys, NFL Picks, Seahawks

Dallas Cowboys (1-1) at Seattle Seahawks (0-2)

At one point I considered these two teams potential playoff teams in the NFC, but they’ve dealt with a lot of injuries early on in the season. The Seahawks get stud middle linebacker Bobby Wagner back from a one week absence this week, but remain without stud outside linebacker KJ Wright and top receiver Doug Baldwin, two of their better players, while offensive linemen Ethan Pocic and Justin Britt are likely out this week and safety Earl Thomas reportedly may not play for personal reasons. The Cowboys, meanwhile, might get safety Xavier Woods for the first time this season, but remain without All-Pro center Travis Frederick, who is suffering from a rare illness. They’re also still missing top interior pass rusher David Irving, who was suspended for the first 4 games of the season.

I have these two teams exactly even in my roster rankings, suggesting we’re getting some line value with the Seahawks as mere 1.5 point favorites. However, I’m torn on this game for a couple reasons. For one, the Cowboys typically play pretty well on the road. While they are just 33-34 at home with an average point differential of +1.19 since 2010, they are 36-29 on the road with an average point differential of 0.26 on the road, not even a point less than at home. On top of that, the Seahawks are in a tough spot, playing their first home game of the season in week 3. Teams tend to struggle in that spot, going 26-51 ATS over the past 30 seasons. I’m taking the Seahawks, but would not recommend betting this game.

Seattle Seahawks 17 Dallas Cowboys 15

Pick against the spread: Seattle -1.5

Confidence: None

Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers: 2018 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2018 NFL Picks, 2018 Week 3 NFL Picks, Bengals, NFL Picks, Panthers

Cincinnati Bengals (2-0) at Carolina Panthers (1-1)

The Bengals are one of a few surprise 2-0 teams, as they’ve won games over the Ravens and Colts in which they were small underdogs. The Bengals were just 7-9 a year ago, but they significantly improved their offensive line this off-season and had several key skill position players returning from injury plagued 2017 seasons. They’ve continued to play well defensively, even with linebacker Vontaze Burfict suspended, while their offense has been much improved.

Unfortunately, the Bengals didn’t make it out of their Thursday night win over the Ravens without some key injury losses, with both center Billy Price and running back Joe Mixon out for at least a couple weeks. Price was one of the offensive line upgrades they added this off-season, while Mixon’s emergence as a feature back in his 2nd year in the league has been a big part of the reason why the Bengals have been improved offensively. Without them, passing down back Giovani Bernard will have to carry the load behind a downgraded offensive line.

Fortunately for the Bengals, they face an even more banged up opponent this week. For the second week in a row, the Panthers will be without three projected starting offensive linemen, left tackle Matt Kalil, right guard Trai Turner, and right tackle Daryl Williams due to injury (after losing left guard Andrew Norwell to the Jaguars in free agency this off-season). They’ll also be without tight end Greg Olsen and safety Da’Norris Searcy. There’s not quite enough line value with the Bengals to bet on them as 3 point underdogs, but the money line makes sense at +125, as this game is close to a toss up.

Cincinnati Bengals 20 Carolina Panthers 19 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +3

Confidence: Low

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2018 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0)

This line briefly opened at Pittsburgh -3, but sharp action quickly bet the line down to 1.5. I regret not grabbing Tampa Bay +3 when I saw it, as, not only is it obviously a better number, but the Steelers have really had a lot of trouble covering decent sized or bigger lines as non-divisional road favorites in the Mike Tomlin era, going 7-18 ATS as non-divisional road favorites of 3+ (6-4 ATS as road favorites of less than 3).

Despite that movement, we are still getting line value with the Buccaneers, who have been one of the NFL’s biggest surprises at 2-0, with wins over 2017 playoff teams in the Saints and Eagles. Their strong play is not coming out of nowhere though. Despite being just 5-11 a year ago, the Buccaneers finished 12th in first down rate differential and lost just 4 games by more than 7 points, against one of the toughest schedules in the NFL. That was even with Jameis Winston missing 3 games and being limited in others with a shoulder injury.

Before Jameis Winston got suspended, I thought this team could easily be a surprise playoff team in the NFC, but I backed off after the Winston suspension and other troubling news about him this off-season. Instead, Ryan Fitzpatrick has come in and played better than Winston ever has. It’s unclear how much the 35-year-old career journeyman can be trusted to continue playing like this, but I definitely have a lot more confidence in him now than I did a couple weeks ago.

On the other side, the Steelers are off to a disappointing 0-1-1 start, with a tie in Cleveland followed up by a home loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Pittsburgh’s early season struggles are not out of nowhere either. They went 13-3 in 2017, but went 8-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less and could have easily been a 10 win team or worse. They especially struggled down the stretch, winning just 2 games by more than 4 points in the final 8 games of the season and then losing in their first playoff game at home to Jacksonville. That was in large part due to the loss of linebacker Ryan Shazier with injury and they did not adequately replace him this off-season.

Shazier isn’t the only player the Steelers don’t have on the field right now either. In addition to the holding out Le’Veon Bell, the Steelers are also missing arguably their two best offensive linemen, right guard David DeCastro and right tackle Marcus Gilbert, DeCastro missing his second game and Gilbert missing his first. They get Joe Haden back from a one game absence with a hamstring injury, but cornerback Artie Burns remains limited by a toe injury and is expected to be a reserve in this game, while safety/linebacker Morgan Burnett is expected to be out with a groin injury. Given all the guys they’re missing, the Steelers don’t deserve to be favored by any amount in Tampa, as I have these two teams about even in my roster rankings right now. The Buccaneers are worth a small bet this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +1.5

Confidence: Medium

New York Giants at Houston Texans: 2018 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2018 NFL Picks, 2018 Week 3 NFL Picks, Giants, NFL Picks, Texans

New York Giants (0-2) at Houston Texans (0-2)

A trendy pre-season Super Bowl “sleeper”, the Texans have gotten off to a disappointing 0-2 start, but they’ve been better than their record has suggested. Their first loss was in New England and last week they had a +7.27% first down rate differential in a 3-point loss in Tennessee. They had 21 first downs to 15 for the Titans, but they missed a field goal and couldn’t get the ball snapped for another field goal try to tie it at the end of the game, while the Titans scored on a 68 yard fake punt.

The Texans finally return home for their home opener this week, but the history of week 3 home openers is not good, as teams are 26-51 ATS over the past 30 years. The Texans could be tired after starting the season with back-to-back road games. They don’t have a tough opponent, as the New York Giants are a mediocre team at best, especially without edge rusher Olivier Vernon and cornerback Eli Apple, but we’re not getting any line value with the Texans as 6 point home favorites. For pick ‘em pool purposes I would take the Giants, but I would need at least 7.5 points to consider betting the Giants.

Houston Texans 20 New York Giants 16

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +6

Confidence: None

Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals: 2018 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2018 NFL Picks, 2018 Week 3 NFL Picks, Bears, Cardinals, NFL Picks

Chicago Bears (1-1) at Arizona Cardinals (0-2)

Through 2 games, the Cardinals have been the worst team in the league. Not only have they lost both games by wide margins (24-6 and 34-0), but they have looked awful while doing it, ranking dead last in first down rate differential at -21.68%. Last week’s game in Los Angeles was the one of the worst single game performances by a team in years, as they managed just 5 first downs to 24 for the Rams and did not even make it past midfield until the final drive of the game, after the outcome was far from in doubt.

New quarterback Sam Bradford has not looked the same after missing most of 2017 with knee injuries and his supporting cast hasn’t helped much either. They’ve struggled on defense and on the offensive line and have little offensive skill position talent behind Larry Fitzgerald and David Johnson. They are expected to get defensive end Markus Golden back from injury this week and he could provide them with a much needed pass rusher opposite Chandler Jones. He had 12.5 sacks in 2016 before tearing his ACL 4 games into 2017, though it’s unclear how effective he’ll be in his first game back.

In addition to Golden’s return, the other good news for the Cardinals is that teams typically bounce back after getting blown out like the Cardinals did last week, as teams are 65-47 ATS since 2002 after a loss by 34 points or more. It’s counterintuitive, but it makes sense if you think about it, as teams tend to be underrated, overlooked, and embarrassed after a blowout loss. That loss shifted this line from Chicago being favored by 2.5 on the early line to now being favored by 5, the biggest line movement of the week.

Typically I like going against these big line movements, but I actually think this line is pretty appropriate. With the addition of Khalil Mack, the Bears are a top-10 team and have arguably the most non-quarterback talent in the league, while the Cardinals look like one of the worst teams in the league. I’m taking the Cardinals just because I think the Bears might overlook them a little bit and because I don’t think they’re as bad as they’ve looked thus far this season, but this is a no confidence pick.

Chicago Bears 17 Arizona Cardinals 13

Pick against the spread: Arizona +5

Confidence: None