Month: September 2019

Pittsburgh Steelers at San Francisco 49ers: 2019 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 3 NFL Picks, 49ers, NFL Picks, Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-2) at San Francisco 49ers (2-0)

The Steelers have gotten off to a disastrous start to the season. They got blown out in New England week 1 in a game they were likely viewing as a measuring stick for their season and then last week they lost starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger for the year with an injury in a game they likely would have won if Roethlisberger had been healthy. Now they are 0-2 and are looking at 14 games with a backup quarterback under center. The 49ers, meanwhile, improved to 2-0 with a blowout victory in Cincinnati last week. As a result, this line has shifted significantly in the past week, from Pittsburgh -1 a week ago to Pittsburgh +7 this week.

One thing that seems to have gotten lost in all of this is that the 49ers had a significant injury loss in the past week as well, losing left tackle Joe Staley indefinitely. Staley isn’t as important to the 49ers as Roethlisberger is to the Steelers, but he’s easily their best offensive lineman and he’s arguably their best offensive player. On top of that, while the Steelers can turn to Mason Rudolph, a 2018 3rd round pick and a potential long-term successor for Roethlisberger, the 49ers will have to start 6th round rookie Justin Skule on the blindside. The Steelers still have a solid defense and a strong pass rush, so they could create a lot of problems for the 49ers’ offense in this game. 

Without Staley, I have this line calculated at San Francisco -4, so we’re getting good line value with the Steelers at +7. Even without Roethlisberger, the Steelers might be the toughest opponent the 49ers have faced thus far this season, after opening the season with the Buccaneers and Bengals. The 49ers were able to win both of those games on the road, but returning home might not be much of a boost for them this week, as teams are just 28-52 ATS since 1989 in week 3 home openers. The 49ers could be tired after traveling twice to start the season and, now back at home, they could overlook a team starting its backup quarterback. There isn’t a great Pick of the Week option this week, but the Steelers are my favorite play this week if you can get the full touchdown.

San Francisco 49ers 20 Pittsburgh Steelers 17

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +7

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts: 2019 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 3 NFL Picks, Colts, Falcons

Atlanta Falcons (1-1) at Indianapolis Colts (1-1)

Going into the season, the Falcons were my sleeper contender. They returned a strong offense from last season and still had most of the key personnel from their Super Bowl offense and their defense looked likely to be healthier after key players like Deion Jones, Keanu Neal, and Ricardo Allen missed significant time with injury last season. The Falcons have gotten off to an uneven start, but they rank 6th in the NFL in first down rate differential through 2 games at +5.13%, despite playing a pair of playoff contenders. They lost in Minnesota week 1, but that was largely because they lost the turnover margin by 4 and turnover margins are inconsistent on a week to week basis. They lost the first down battle by just 1.61% in that game and then they won that battle by 8.29% in their home victory over the Eagles last week.

Now the Falcons get their easiest test so far, facing a Colts team that is middle of the pack at best when healthy and that is currently missing their best defensive player, linebacker Darius Leonard, because of a concussion. I have this line calculated at Atlanta -3, so we’re getting pretty significant line value with them at +1. This is also a tough spot for the Colts, in addition to Leonard being out, because the Colts are returning home after starting the season on the road in back-to-back games. Teams are just 28-52 ATS since 1989 in week 3 home openers. The Falcons have a good shot to pull the “upset” and could easily win convincingly.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Indianapolis Colts 23

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +1

Confidence: High

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs: 2019 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (2-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (2-0)

When these two teams met late last season, the game went to overtime, with the Chiefs eventually pulling out the victory. Lamar Jackson has taken a step forward in his second year in the league, so the Ravens seem to be a trendy upset pick this week, but they don’t nearly have the same defense as they had last season. In free agency, they lost five of their top-11 in terms of snaps played in 2018 and since then they’ve lost another two, cornerbacks Tavon Young and Jimmy Smith, due to injury. They did add Earl Thomas to the backend of their defense, but he can’t mask all their other losses by himself. 

They’ve gotten off to a good start to the season on defense, but they haven’t faced tough competition at all, going against the Dolphins and Cardinals. The Chiefs are a huge step up in competition and should give the Ravens’ defense a lot of trouble. We haven’t seen Lamar Jackson win a shootout thus far in his career and I wouldn’t expect him to do so on the road in Kansas City. This line is 5.5, but I have it calculated at 8, so we’re getting good line value with the Chiefs. I’m keeping this as a smaller bet though, because the Chiefs could be tired after starting the season with back-to-back road games (teams are 28-52 ATS in week 3 home openers since 1989).

Kansas City Chiefs 31 Baltimore Ravens 23

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -5.5

Confidence: Medium

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2019 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 3 NFL Picks, Jaguars, NFL Picks, Titans

Tennessee Titans (1-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2)

The Titans lost last week at home to the Colts, but all things considered they have gotten off to a great start to the season. They won convincingly on the road in Cleveland in week 1 and then last week may have been caught looking ahead a little before a short week, a situation favorites tend to struggle in. They rank 7th in the league in first down rate through two weeks, at +5.02%, despite playing quality opponents both weeks. Built around their defense and running game, the Titans quietly went 6-2 down the stretch last season before Marcus Mariota missed week 17 with injury and they still won 9 games despite Mariota being less than 100% all year and despite facing eventual playoff qualifiers in 9 of 16 games (4-5 record). This season, with a better insurance option behind Mariota, they look well positioned to win the AFC South.

The Jaguars, meanwhile, have gotten off to a tough start to the season, losing quarterback Nick Foles indefinitely in the first half of their first game and missing several other starters (left tackle Cam Robinson, cornerback AJ Bouye, and defensive end Yannick Ngawoue) during week 2. Robinson and Ngawoue are expected back this week, whlle Bouye is questionable, but Foles remains out, backup quarterback Gardner Minshew fell back down to earth last week against a much tougher Houston defense, and the Jaguars also have the Jalen Ramsey situation looming over the team. 

Ramsey has demanded a trade out of Jacksonville and, while he’s not expected to be traded before gametime, he clearly does not want to be there and he has gotten off to an uncharacteristically slow start to the season. He may be playing at less than full speed to avoid injury.  I have this line calculated at Tennessee -3.5. In reality this line is at Tennessee -2, which doesn’t seem like significant line value, but about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. In a game where the Titans essentially just have to win to cover, I think they’re worth a small bet. 

Tennessee Titans 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 16

Pick against the spread: Tennessee -2

Confidence: Medium

2019 Week 2 NFL Picks

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Pick of the Week

ARZ +13 @ BAL

High Confidence Picks

DET +2 vs. LAC

GB -2.5 vs. MIN

Medium Confidence Picks

HOU -8.5 vs. JAX

CHI -2 @ DEN

DAL -6.5 @ WAS

CAR -7 vs. TB

Low Confidence Picks

ATL +2 vs. PHI

NO +2 @ LAR

OAK +7 vs. KC

CIN -1 vs. SF

PIT -3.5 vs. SEA

NYJ +7 vs. CLE

No Confidence Picks

NE -19.5 @ MIA

TEN -3 vs. IND

BUF -2 @ NYG

Upset Picks

DET +105

NO +110

ATL +115

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders: 2019 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 2 NFL Picks, Chiefs, NFL Picks, Raiders

Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) at Oakland Raiders (1-0)

The Chiefs won 40-26 week 1, but it came against a Jaguars team that lost its starting quarterback in the first half. The Chiefs had an impressive point total and a 46.67% first down rate (3rd highest of the week), but the Jaguars’ defense is a far cry from what it was in 2017 and the Chiefs continued to have serious issues on defense, allowing the Jaguars to pick up first downs at a 42.00% rate and allowing sixth round rookie backup quarterback Gardiner Minshew to move the ball effectively in his first career action. 

The Chiefs have another easy game this week against a Raiders team whose week 1 win came against an equally underwhelming Broncos team, but it certainly wouldn’t be a surprise to see the game turn into a shootout. The line isn’t huge at Kansas City -7, but the Raiders could easily get a late garbage time cover at the very least here at home in Oakland. We’re not getting a ton of line value with the Raiders, but I have this line calculated at Kansas City -4.5 with the Chiefs missing top receiver Tyreek Hill and possibly left tackle Eric Fisher due to injury, so Oakland is the pick for pick ‘em purposes. 

Kansas City Chiefs 33 Oakland Raiders 28

Pick against the spread: Oakland +7

Confidence: Low

San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2019 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 2 NFL Picks, 49ers, Bengals, NFL Picks

San Francisco 49ers (1-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-1)

The Bengals entered the season as one of the most banged up teams in the league. In the off-season, they lost first round rookie Jonah Williams for the season, long-time starting guard Clint Boling to an injury related retirement, and several other players like wide receiver AJ Green, left tackle Cordy Glenn, and cornerback Darqueze Dennard indefinitely due to various injuries. Despite that, they almost pulled the upset week 1 in Seattle, as one of the biggest underdogs of the week. They lost by just 1 point in a game that swung on the Seahawks recovering 3 of 4 fumbles and the Bengals won the first down rate battle by 3.67%. 

The Seahawks were an overrated opponent, especially with defensive end Ezekiel Ansah out with injury, but the Bengals get another opponent this week that could be overrated. The 49ers won 31-17 in Tampa Bay week 1, but they lost the first down rate battle by 3.85%, winning largely due to takeaways, which are inconsistent week-to-week. Jimmy Garrappolo looked rusty in his return from injury and the Bengals defense looked significantly improved in week 1 over last season’s underperforming unit. We’re not getting much line value with the Bengals -1, but I have these two teams about even in my rankings, so this line should be closer to -3. The Bengals are my pick for pick ‘em purposes, but there’s not enough here to bet on them. 

Cincinnati Bengals 20 San Francisco 49ers 17

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -1

Confidence: Low

Cleveland Browns at New York Jets: 2019 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (0-1) at New York Jets (0-1)

Both of these teams came into the season with expectations of being significantly improved, after several key off-season acquisitions. Instead, both started the season by losing at home as favorites. The Browns got blown out 43-13 in a game in which they finished with a -11.31% first down rate differential (4th worst of the week), albeit against a Titans team that has the potential to be very competitive this season if Marcus Mariota can stay healthy. The Jets, meanwhile, only lost by 1 at home to the Bills, but that was despite winning the turnover margin by 3. Teams with a +3 turnover margin only lose on average 10.3% of the time, but the Jets lost the first down rate battle by -12.41% (3rd worst of the week) and lost the game as a result.

Things have gone from bad to worse for the Jets since then, with starting quarterback Sam Darnold going out indefinitely with an illness. Any projections that had the Jets being significantly improved this season involved Darnold taking a big step forward in his second year in the league and now the Jets have to turn to backup caliber quarterback Trevor Siemian. In addition, the Jets will also be without top draft pick Quinnen Williams and key free agent acquisition CJ Mosley in this one due to injury. Those two players are also a big part of why the Jets had increased expectations this season. As a result of all of those absences, this line has shifted from Cleveland -2.5 earlier in the week to Cleveland -7 now.

It’s hard to know what to make of this game. The Browns should be more focused after getting blown out at home week 1, but they may still need more time to gel after all of their off-season acquisitions and they could overlook a Trevor Siemian led Jets team with a much more important measuring stick game on deck against the Rams. Road favorites are 23-50 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs and even if the Browns don’t end up being home underdogs next week (they’re currently +1.5 on the early line), the logic still stands that this could be a look ahead spot, even after what happened week 1. 

On the other hand, the Jets also have a very tough game on deck in New England and underdogs of 7+ are 44-72 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs of 7+ again. The Jets should be more focused, knowing they have to give 110% to compensate for their absences, and we’re getting a little bit of line value with them even with all of their absences, as I have this line calculated at Cleveland -6, but there’s not nearly enough here to bet on them. The Jets are my pick, but for pick ‘em purposes only.

Cleveland Browns 24 New York Jets 19

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +7

Confidence: Low

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: 2019 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 2 NFL Picks, Colts, NFL Picks, Titans

Indianapolis Colts (0-1) at Tennessee Titans (1-0)

This game is tough to predict. On one hand, this line suggests the Titans are only about even with the Colts, favoring them at home by a field goal, which I don’t think is accurate. A lot of attention is being paid to the Browns’ disappointing start to the season, getting blown out by home by 30 against the Titans last week, but the Titans are not getting attention for their strong performance in the 43-13 victory. They dominated the game as much as the final score suggested, winning the first down rate battle by 11.31%, the 4th highest margin of the week. The Titans looked likely to have a strong running game and defense this season, but their passing game looked strong as well, with several new weapons added in the off-season and Marcus Mariota looked much healthier and more comfortable than he did most of last season. If that can continue, this should be a very competitive team in the AFC. 

However, this is also a tough spot for the Browns, as they have to turn around and play another game in 4 days on Thursday Night Football against the Jaguars. Favorites are just 55-75 ATS since 2012 before Thursday Night Football and the Titans could easily overlook the Andrew Luck less Colts with another game right around the corner. The Titans were highly inconsistent last year, as they beat four playoff qualifiers, but couldn’t make the playoffs themselves because of losses to the Bills and Dolphins. It certainly wouldn’t be a surprise to see them follow up a big road win in Cleveland with a disappointing home performance against the Colts, especially before a short week. I’m taking the Titans for pick ‘em purposes, but I can’t be confident in them at all.

Tennessee Titans 20 Indianapolis Colts 16

Pick against the spread: Tennessee -3

Confidence: None

Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2019 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (1-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1)

The Seahawks were one of the highest favored teams week 1, at home against a very banged up Bengals team, but they ended up winning by just 1 point in a game they easily could have lost. They lost the first down rate battle by 3.67% and the game largely swung on the Seahawks recovering 3 out of 4 fumbles in the game. Fumble recovery rate is very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, so they won’t be able to count on that again this week.

I was concerned about the Seahawks’ defense coming in the season, even after they acquired Jadeveon Clowney from the Texans, but their offensive performance week 1 was concerning as well. Russell Wilson played well, but his lack of supporting cast was evident. He was sacked 4 times on 24 drop backs, was supported by just 3.05 yards per carry from his running backs, and had just 5 passes caught by wide receivers. As a result, the Seahawks had just a 30.61% first down rate. 

The Seahawks get a boost from on defense this week from the return of defensive end Ezekiel Ansah, who missed week 1, but their offense isn’t getting any reinforcements and the Steelers’ defense gets back safety Sean Davis, who was badly missed in their loss in New England last week. This line at Pittsburgh -3.5 suggests the hometown Steelers are the slightly better team. I have a little bit bigger of a gap between these two teams and the Steelers are likely underrated after having to face such a tough opponent week 1, but we’re not getting enough line value with the Steleers to bet on them. If this line moves down to 3 before gametime, I would reconsider.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Seattle Seahawks 20

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh -3.5

Confidence: Low