Month: September 2019

New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams: 2019 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 2 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Rams, Saints

New Orleans Saints (1-0) at Los Angeles Rams (1-0)

This is a rematch of last year’s controversial NFC Championship game, which ended with the Rams pulling the upset in New Orleans and advancing in part due to a non called pass interference that prompted the league to change the rules to allow for pass interference to be challenged and reviewed. The Saints now travel west to face the Rams in Los Angeles. Having homefield advantage will benefit the Rams, but they’re not quite as good of a team as last season, losing several starters on both sides of the ball this off-season, including key players like Ndamukong Suh, Rodger Saffold, and LaMarcus Joyner. 

The Rams won week 1 in Carolina, but that game swung on a few plays, as the Rams recovered all 4 fumbles in a game they won by 3. They also lost the first down rate battle to a Carolina team that then went on to lose at home to the Buccaneers. Despite that, the Rams are favored over the Saints, albeit only by 2 points. We’re not getting a ton of line value with the Saints and the Saints have really struggled in the first couple weeks of the season in recent years (3-15-1 ATS since 2010), so this is only a low confidence pick, but the money line is worth a small bet at +110.

New Orleans Saints 33 Los Angeles Rams 30 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +2

Confidence: Low

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins: 2019 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 2 NFL Picks, Dolphins, NFL Picks, Patriots

New England Patriots (1-0) at Miami Dolphins (0-1)

This line favors the visiting New England Patriots by 19.5 points here in Miami, just the third time in the past 30 years that a team has been favored by 17 points or more on the road. It’s understandable why this line is where it is. The Dolphins stripped down their roster this off-season, to accumulate cap space and draft picks for the future, and are left with not only the least talented team in the league by far but also a demotivated one, as the players don’t believe the front office and coaching staff are trying to compete this season. They lost their home opener 59-10 to a Ravens team that lost 6 defensive starters in the off-season and might not even end up being that good. The Patriots, meanwhile, are defending Super Bowl Champions and coming off of a dominant performance against the Steelers week 1.

That doesn’t mean this game is a lock to be a blowout though and, in fact, neither of the last two teams to be favored by 17+ on the road came close to covering. In week 13 of 1992, the Bills actually lost on the road in Indianapolis as 20-point road favorites, while the Patriots nearly lost in week 13 during their perfect season in 2007 as 17-point road favorites in Baltimore, salvaging a win in the last minute. 

Does that mean this game will be close too? Well, when we include teams favored by 14-16 points on the road, we see that big road favorites actually have a winning record against the spread (15-11 ATS since 1989), so there really isn’t a larger trend. The Patriots have struggled in Miami in the past and they have started slow in past seasons and this game might be more about getting Antonio Brown acclimated than anything, but even if that’s the case they could still win this game with ease. The Patriots appeared to be in mid-season form last week and they’re in a great spot with only a game against the Jets and backup quarterback Trevor Siemian on deck. Favorites of double digits are 44-31 ATS since 2002 before being favorites of double digits again, which the Patriots almost definitely will be next week. I can’t take the Patriots with any confidence this week because this line has kind of gotten out of control, but I am expecting a blowout.

New England Patriots 31 Miami Dolphins 10

Pick against the spread: New England -19.5

Confidence: None

Buffalo Bills at New York Giants: 2019 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 2 NFL Picks, Bills, Giants, NFL Picks

Buffalo Bills (1-0) at New York Giants (0-1)

A lot of the concern around the Giants coming into the season was around their offense, which lost Odell Beckham this off-season, but they showed in their week 1 loss in Dallas that the bigger concern is their defense, which has lost Olivier Vernon, Landon Collins, and Damon Harrison in the past calendar year and looked like one of the weakest in the league coming into the season. Their offense actually has a chance to be decent when they are at full strength because they have an improved offensive line and they still have several playmakers without Odell Beckham like Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram, Sterling Shepard, and Golden Tate. Shepard is out this week with a concussion though, while Tate still has three games left on his suspension, so they’re pretty thin in the receiving corps as well right now. 

The Giants are playing a Bills team that won on the road at the Jets week 1, coming back from down 16-0 to win 17-16. The Bills got down early because of turnovers, but managed to win the game despite a -3 turnover margin, which is very impressive, even against an underwhelming Jets team. On average, teams with a -3 turnover margin win just 10.3% of the time. Turnover margins tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis and the Bills finished week 1 with the 3rd best first down rate differential in the league, only behind the Ravens and Patriots. 

The Bills still have concerns, but they look to be improved over last season and could easily compete for a wild card spot in the AFC, which is by far the weaker conference. The Giants are an NFC team, but they’re one of the worst, so the Bills could easily win this game to start out 2-0. We’re not getting much line value with them at Buffalo -2, which is about where I have it, but most games are decided by at least a field goal, so Buffalo should cover if they win. A Buffalo win by a field goal seems like the most likely outcome, but there’s not nearly enough here to bet them with confidence.

Buffalo Bills 23 New York Giants 20

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -2

Confidence: None

Chicago Bears at Denver Broncos: 2019 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 2 NFL Picks, Bears, Broncos

Chicago Bears (0-1) at Denver Broncos (0-1)

I expected the Bears to decline in win total coming into the season, but the primary reason for that was simply that they’re going to face a much tougher schedule in 2019, after facing one of the easiest last season. The Bears lost a tough game at home to the Packers to open their season last season, but they get a much easier game this week in Denver. The Broncos looked like an underwhelming team on paper coming into the season and their week 1 loss in Oakland doesn’t help matters. They’re also missing two of their top off-season additions due to injury, with both slot cornerback Bryce Callahan and right tackle Ja’Wuan James out for this game. 

The Bears took care of business against most of their weak opponents last season, going 10-3 with a +129 point differential and an average margin of victory of 13.6 points per game against non-playoff teams, and I expect them to be able to do so again this season, especially with no upcoming distractions (they face the Redskins next week). As mere 2-point road favorites in Denver, the Bears basically just need to win to cover here, so they’re worth a bet. With the Broncos current injury situation, I have this line calculated at Chicago -3.5, which isn’t a ton of line value, but it crosses the key number of 3. The Bears should be able to win at least by a field goal. 

Chicago Bears 19 Denver Broncos 13

Pick against the spread: Chicago -2

Confidence: Medium

Los Angeles Chargers at Detroit Lions: 2019 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 2 NFL Picks, Chargers, Lions, NFL Picks

Los Angeles Chargers (1-0) at Detroit Lions (0-0-1)

The Chargers are one of the most shorthanded teams in the league right now. Melvin Gordon’s holdout might not affect them if Austin Ekeler keeps playing like he did week 1, but they were already without their top offensive lineman Russell Okung and their top defensive back Derwin James indefinitely due to injury and now they’ll be without talented tight end Hunter Henry, who is out 4-6 weeks with a knee injury. Despite that, the public still seems to see them as a top team, after a 12-win 2018 season (partially due to a 6-1 record in games decided by 8 points or fewer). 

They’re favored here on the road in Detroit and, even though this line is only two points, we’re getting great value with the Lions, who are arguably the better team right now, given the Chargers’ injury situation. The Lions are an underrated team whose defense played well down the stretch last season after the addition of Damon Harrison, who they have complemented on the defensive line with off-season acquisitions Mike Daniels and Trey Flowers. Their offense struggled down the stretch last season, but they’re healthier now with Marvin Jones and Kerryon Johnson back and they added Danny Amendola and TJ Hockenson this off-season to replace Golden Tate as middle of the field targets for Matt Stafford.

The Lions blew a 24-6 4th quarter lead in Arizona last week and ended up tying the Cardinals, but they won the first down rate battle by 4.45%, which was the 9th best margin of the week. The Chargers, meanwhile, pulled out at overtime victory at home over the Colts, but easily could have lost if the Colts hadn’t missed multiple kicks in regulation. At the very worst, these teams are about even, but this line suggests the Chargers are about 5 points better. I like the Lions chances of winning and covering at home a lot.

Detroit Lions 26 Los Angeles Chargers 20 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Detroit +2

Confidence: High

Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons: 2019 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 2 NFL Picks, Eagles, Falcons, NFL Picks

Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-1)

I had relatively high expectations for the Falcons going into the season, as their defense looked likely to be improved with Deion Jones, Keanu Neal, and Ricardo Allen back from injury. Their defense struggled in a week 1 loss in Minnesota, allowing a 44.90% first down rate in a 28-12 defeat. The Falcons didn’t play nearly as badly as the final score suggested, however, as the game swung on a few turnovers. The Falcons only lost the final down rate battle by 1.61%, but they threw two interceptions, lost a fumble, failed to recover two Minnesota fumbles, and had a punt blocked. Turnover margin and fumble recovery rate tend to be highly inconsistent week-to-week, so I think the Falcons are pretty underrated going into this week.

The Eagles are obviously a tough opponent, but I still have this line calculated at Atlanta -1. We’re not getting great value with the Falcons at +2, but I think they have a good shot to win this game outright. We could very easily see a much more focused Falcons team at home in a big measuring stick game against one of the top teams in the conference. This is only a low confidence pick against the spread, but the money line at +115 is worth a small bet.

Atlanta Falcons 30 Philadelphia Eagles 27 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +2

Confidence: Low

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins: 2019 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 2 NFL Picks, Commanders, Cowboys, NFL Picks

Dallas Cowboys (1-0) at Washington Redskins (0-1)

The Redskins made some big plays early last week against the Eagles and shockingly jumped out to a 17-0 lead, but they couldn’t do much from there, as the Eagles went up 32-20 before the Redskins led a garbage time touchdown drive at the end of the game. Even with the garbage time touchdown included, the Redskins finished the week with the 7th worst first down rate differential at 6.11% and still look likely to finish as one of the worst teams in the league. Not helping matters is the Redskins’ injury situation, with cornerback Quinton Dunbar and defensive end Jonathan Allen likely joining cornerback Fabian Moreau, who missed week 1, on the sidelines. 

The Cowboys faced another one of the likely worst teams in the league last season, blowing out the Giants 35-17. They also have another really easy game on deck, as they host the Dolphins next week, so they should be fully focused. Favorites of 6 or more are 99-63 ATS since 2014 before being favored by 6 or more again. We’re not getting great line value with the Cowboys at -6.5, but I have this line calculated at -9.5, so the Cowboys should be able to take care of business here, without any upcoming distractions on deck. This game is unlikely to be close barring another garbage time touchdown. 

Dallas Cowboys 30 Washington Redskins 20

Pick against the spread: Dallas -6.5

Confidence: Medium

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers: 2019 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 2 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Packers, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (1-0) at Green Bay Packers (1-0)

Both of these teams missed the playoffs last season despite high expectations and both of these teams looked improved in week 1 over last season. The odds makers seem to think these two teams are about even, favoring the Packers at home by a field goal. I think this spread is off though, as I have higher expectations for the Packers. Both teams won week 1, but the Packers’ win came on the road in Chicago, while the Vikings’ win came at home against the Falcons. The Vikings had a higher margin of victory, but that game swung on a few plays, with the Vikings winning the turnover margin by 4. Turnover margin tends to be highly inconsistent week-to-week, so they won’t necessarily be able to rely on that again this week. 

Week 1 aside, I also had higher expectations for the Packers coming into the season, with an improved defense and a healthier Aaron Rodgers. The Vikings should be better on offense this season with a better offensive line and a more balanced game plan, but their defense has several key players over 30 and likely won’t be as good as they’ve been in recent years. Aside from their takeaways, their defense struggled to stop the Falcons from moving up and down the field week 1, allowing a 43.28% first down rate and only winning the first down rate battle by 1.61%. The Packers’ offense didn’t look great week 1, but that was on the road in Chicago, who still has arguably the best defense in the NFL. They’re the more talented team in this matchup and should be favored by more than a field goal. I’m going to keep this at a medium confidence bet until we get clarification on David Bahktiari’s status, but even if he does end up sitting the Packers still have a good shot in this game. 

Update: Bahktiari is expected to play and yet this line has dropped to 2.5, so I’m moving this up to high confidence. I have this line calculated at Green Bay -7, so we’re getting significant line value with the Packers. If I was confident Bahktiari was 100%, this would be my Pick of the Week.

Green Bay Packers 24 Minnesota Vikings 17

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -2.5

Confidence: High

Arizona Cardinals at Baltimore Ravens: 2019 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 2 NFL Picks, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Ravens

Arizona Cardinals (0-0-1) at Baltimore Ravens (1-0)

The most eye-popping result of week 1 was the Ravens’ 59-10 win in Miami and Lamar Jackson’s near perfect day as a passer. It came against a Dolphins team with little talent and seemingly little motivation, but Jackson faced a weak schedule of defenses in his starts last season (5 of 8 starts came against teams that finished 24th or worse in first down rate allowed) and never came close to putting up the passing production he put up last week, so he definitely seems improved as a passer from year one to year two. The question of how much he’s improved may not be answered until he faces tougher competition, but week 1 was definitely encouraging for his long-term prospects.

Jackson isn’t really getting that tougher competition this week, with the Cardinals coming to Baltimore. Unlike the Dolphins, the Cardinals should be a somewhat competitive team this season, but they’re still one of the worst teams in the league and they’re missing their two starting cornerbacks Patrick Peterson and Robert Alford with suspension and injury respectively, so their defense isn’t close to full strength.

That being said, I still think this line is way too high at Baltimore -13. Even if Jackson is an improved passer, this team still has significant concerns, especially on defense. Having already lost five defensive starters in free agency, the Ravens are now without cornerbacks Tavon Young and Jimmy Smith as well. Adding Earl Thomas in free agency obviously helps, but he can’t mask their other losses by himself. What was a dominant defense last season could easily be middle of the pack this season, at least against teams other than the Dolphins. If Jackson can perform like he did last week every week, that will mask their losses on defense, but he has yet to show consistency. The Ravens could also overlook the Cardinals a little bit, with a trip to Kansas City on deck. Favorites of 10+ are 63-83 ATS since 2002 before being underdogs. I have this line calculated at Baltimore -7, so we’re getting significant line value with the visitors at +13. This is my Pick of the Week.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Arizona Cardinals 20

Pick against the spread: Arizona +13

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans: 2019 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 2 NFL Picks, Jaguars, NFL Picks, Texans

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) at Houston Texans (0-1)

The season is only a week old, but the Jaguars are already pretty beat up. Their biggest injury is the loss of quarterback Nick Foles for a couple months with a broken collarbone. Sixth round rookie Gardner Minshew didn’t look bad last week in relief of Foles, but that was at home, against a Chiefs defense that was one of the worst in the league last season, and it largely came against a prevent defense in a game that wasn’t close most of the way. He’ll face a much tougher test on the road in Houston this week and the Texans will also be better prepared to face him than the Chiefs were, with close to a full game of tape to study and a week to prepare. 

Foles’ injury might be the Jaguars’ biggest, but it’s far from their only serious injury situation. The Jaguars will also again be without blindside protector Cam Robinson after he suffered a setback in his recovery from a torn ACL last week and they’ll be without cornerback AJ Bouye and defensive end Yannick Ngakoue, two of their best defensive players. This defense was already a far cry from their 2017 defense before those two injuries. Without those two, the Jaguars will have just four of their top-13 defensive players in terms of played in 2017 active in this game. In their current injury situation, this is one of the worst few teams in the league.

The Texans aren’t a great team, but I think we’re getting line value with them as 8.5 point favorites. We’re not getting a ton of line value, but I have this calculated at Houston -11 and the public seems to be underestimating the Jaguars’ injury situation. Minshew should struggle in his first career road start against a solid defense, while the Jaguars’ defense won’t be much resistance for Deshaun Watson and company. The Texans should win this with relative ease, by double digits. They’re worth a small bet.

Houston Texans 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 12

Pick against the spread: Houston -8.5

Confidence: Medium