Year: 2019

Jacksonville Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons: 2019 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 16 NFL Picks, Falcons, Jaguars, NFL Picks

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-9) at Atlanta Falcons (5-9)

The Jaguars won last week in Oakland, snapping a 5-game losing streak, but they weren’t impressive. Not only did they lose the first down rate battle by 3.04% in a game that could have gone either way, but the Raiders are also one of the worst teams in the league, ranking 29th in the NFL on the season in first down rate differential. That win doesn’t change my opinion of the Jaguars and, prior to last week’s win, the Jaguars were the 3rd team in the past 30 seasons to lose 5 consecutive games by 14 points or more, so they still have a lot of problems. 

Their offense has been terrible all season, ranking 30th in first down rate on the season at 31.40%, and their defense has been especially bad since trading Jalen Ramsey after week 6, ranking 30th in the NFL in first down rate allowed over that stretch at 40.49%. As a result of their struggles on both sides of the ball, they have a -10.24% first down rate differential since week 6, worst in the NFL over that stretch by a large margin, with their opponents last week the Oakland Raiders having the second worst at -7.33%. 

The Falcons, meanwhile, have the same record as the Jaguars, but have been better than their record suggests and significantly better than the Jaguars, ranking 17th in first down rate differential at -0.38%, despite facing the league’s toughest schedule (58% opponents winning percentage). The Falcons started the season 1-7 before their week 9 bye, but their biggest problem was the turnover battle, as they had -0.29% first down rate differential but a -12 turnover margin. Fortunately, turnovers tend to be unpredictable on a week-to-week basis and they’ve been +6 in turnover margin since the bye. 

As a result, the Falcons have gone 4-2, including wins on the road in New Orleans and San Francisco, despite their first down rate differential only being slightly better in those 6 games than it was before the bye (+0.12%). Assuming they play turnover neutral football, which should almost always be assumed about most teams, the Falcons shouldn’t have much trouble at home against one of the worst teams in the league. 

This line, favoring the Falcons by 7.5, suggests a large talent gap between these two teams, but I think this line should be even higher, with my calculated line being Atlanta -11. We’ve lost line value with the Falcons going from 6.5-point favorites on the early line last week to 7.5-point favorites this week, but I still like the Falcons enough to bet on them. If this line drops back down to a touchdown before gametime, I’ll probably increase this bet.

Atlanta Falcons 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 20

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -7.5

Confidence: Medium

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles: 2019 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 16 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Eagles, NFL Picks

Dallas Cowboys (7-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-7)

The Cowboys had their most impressive performance of the season last week, convincingly beating a solid Rams team in a 44-21 game in which they won the first down rate battle by 5.88%. That’s not all that surprising, as they’ve been better than their record this season. Including the Rams’ game, their average margin of victory is 18.57 points per game, while their average margin of defeat is just 5.71 points per game. That gives them a point differential of +90, 6th in the NFL, which suggests they’ve played significantly better than their 7-7 record suggests. They also rank highly in first down rate differential at +4.57%, 5th in the NFL.

Unfortunately, we’ve lost line value with the Cowboys in the past week, with this line moving from even a week ago on the early line to Dallas -2.5 this week. The Eagles have been up and down this season, but they’ve been about an average team overall, ranking 15th in first down rate differential on the season at +0.58%. I have the Cowboys calculated as 3-point favorites, but there’s not nearly enough here for the Cowboys to be worth betting on, especially with quarterback Dak Prescott barely getting practice reps this week while dealing with a shoulder injury.

Dallas Cowboys 27 Philadelphia Eagles 24

Pick against the spread: Dallas -2.5

Confidence: None

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: 2019 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 16 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Packers, Vikings

Green Bay Packers (11-3) at Minnesota Vikings (10-4)

The Packers have a one game lead over the Vikings in the NFC North and they won the previous matchup between these two teams back in week 2, but the Vikings have been the more impressive team on the season. While 7 of the Packers’ 11 wins have come by one score or fewer, the Vikings have just 2 wins by one score or less. As a result, the Vikings have a significant edge in point differential at +119 to +47 and in first down rate differential at +4.78% to +0.70%. The Packers are closer to full strength injury wise, with the Vikings missing feature back Dalvin Cook with injury, but I still have the Vikings a couple points better than the Packers in my roster rankings. Given that, the Vikings have a great shot to win the re-match, after falling just short in Green Bay (21-16), where the Packers are close to unbeatable with Aaron Rodgers under center (43-22 ATS since 2011).

Unfortunately, we’re not getting any line value with the Vikings, as the odds makers seem to recognize that the Packers haven’t played quite as well as their record suggests and, as a result, have made them 4.5 point underdogs in Minnesota. My calculated line is actually Minnesota -4, so we’re getting the slightest bit of line value with the visitors, but not nearly enough to take either side with confidence. This is one of my lowest confidence picks of the week.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Green Bay Packers 20

Pick against the spread: Green Bay +4.5

Confidence: None

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins: 2019 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 16 NFL Picks, Bengals, Dolphins, NFL Picks

Cincinnati Bengals (1-13) at Miami Dolphins (3-11)

Both of these teams have had miserable seasons, with a combined 4 wins between the two teams. The Bengals only have one win, but they’ve been a more competitive team than the Dolphins, with just 6 double digit losses, compared to 9 for the Dolphins, and a point differential of -148, compared to -194 for the Dolphins. In terms of first down rate differential, the Bengals hold the edge at -3.91% to -7.19%. That’s despite the fact that the Bengals have faced a significantly tougher schedule, with a 57% opponents combined winning percentage, as compared to 47% for the Dolphins. 

The Dolphins have been better in games started by veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick, rather than young quarterback Josh Rosen, with a 4.47% better first down rate in Fitzpatrick’s 11 starts as compared to Rosen’s 3 starts, but the Bengals have also been better in games started by veteran Andy Dalton, rather than young quarterback Ryan Finley, with a 4.41% better first down rate in Dalton’s 11 starts as compared to Finley’s 3 starts. The Bengals have also benefited from the return of left tackle Cordy Glenn in recent weeks and overall actually rank 24th in my roster rankings, while the Dolphins rank dead last. 

With that in mind, we’re getting good line value with the Bengals as just 1-point road favorites, as I have this line calculated at Cincinnati -4. The Bengals are also in a better spot. This isn’t a particularly meaningful game for either team other than being a relatively easy opportunity to pick up a rare win, but the Dolphins could completely look past the Bengals with a trip to New England on deck, while the Bengals have a much easier game on deck at home against the Browns. The Dolphins will almost definitely be double digit underdogs next week and teams are are just 33-64 ATS since 2008 before being double digit divisional underdogs. I thought about making this my Pick of the Week, but couldn’t bring myself to make arguably the most meaningless game of the week my top pick. I do like the Bengals a lot this week though.

Cincinnati Bengals 24 Miami Dolphins 17

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -1

Confidence: High

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets: 2019 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 16 NFL Picks, Jets, NFL Picks, Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6) at New York Jets (5-9)

The Jets had intentions of competing in 2019, after an off-season spending spree, but they’ve had a disappointing season and sit at just 5-9, out of the playoff race entirely, with two weeks left in the season. They’ve actually been even worse than their record suggests, ranking 27th in first down rate differential at -4.15%, despite having tied for the easiest schedule in the league, with a 43% combined opponents record. 

Part of that is they were without quarterback Sam Darnold for 3 games early in the season, but his return hasn’t come close to solving all of their problems. Since week 7, they rank 18th in first down rate differential at -1.06%, which isn’t terrible, unless you consider that they’ve faced teams that rank 22nd or worse in first down rate differential in 7 of 9 games over that stretch. The two exceptions were the Patriots and Ravens, games against top level teams in which they lost the first down rate battle by 10.27% and 22.84% respectively.

This week the Jets face the Steelers. On offense, the Steelers resemble the terrible teams the Jets have mostly faced in recent weeks, ranking 26th in first down rate at 31.87%, but defensively they resemble the Patriots and Ravens, ranking 5th in first down rate allowed at 33.15%. I have this line calculated at Pittsburgh -3, so we’re getting a little bit of line value with the visiting Steelers, who are favored by 2.5 points, but there’s isn’t nearly enough here for this game to be worth betting. 

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 New York Jets 10

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh -2.5

Confidence: None

New York Giants at Washington Redskins: 2019 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 16 NFL Picks, Commanders, Giants, NFL Picks

New York Giants (3-11) at Washington Redskins (3-11)

Both of these teams are 3-11 and have had pretty horrible seasons, but the Giants have been the noticeably better of these two teams, holding a significant edge in point differential -99 to -132, despite the Redskins holding a significant edge in turnover margin +2 to -15. Turnover margins tend to be highly unpredictable on a week-to-week basis, so the Redskins aren’t necessarily going to win the turnover battle this week just because they have the advantage in that metric on the season. In terms of first down rate differential, the Giants have the edge at -2.02% to -6.07%. Unfortunately, we’ve lost a lot of line value with the Giants in the past week, as the Redskins were favored by 3 points on the early line last week, but this line is now even. I have the Giants calculated as 1.5 points, so they should be the right side, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

New York Giants 17 Washington Redskins 16

Pick against the spread: NY Giants PK

Confidence: Low

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns: 2019 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 16 NFL Picks, Browns, NFL Picks, Ravens

Baltimore Ravens (12-2) at Cleveland Browns (6-8)

When these two division rivals met back in week 4, the Browns won somewhat easily by a final score of 40-25, resulting in both teams being 2-2 after 4 games. At the time, it looked like a sign of things to come, as the Browns were the pre-season favorite to win the division. However, while the Browns have fallen to 6-8 and out of the playoff race entirely, the Ravens haven’t lost since that first matchup against the Browns way back in week 4.

I would expect this matchup to be much more similar to how these teams have played in the past 10 games than how they played in week 4. While the Browns rank just 23rd in first down rate differential on the season at -2.31% and are the without talented defensive end duo of Myles Garrett (suspension) and Olivier Vernon (injury), the Ravens have completely reinvented their defense since the start of the season and are the most complete team in football. They have added cornerback Marcus Peters and middle linebacker Josh Bynes, have gotten breakout play from edge defender Tyus Bowser and safety Chuck Clark, and have gotten cornerback Jimmy Smith back from injury.

Peters was their most important addition and since adding him in week 7, the Ravens rank 2nd in first down rate allowed at 30.18%, after ranking 24th in first down rate differential through the first 6 games of the season at 37.95%. Lamar Jackson and this offense gets by far the most attention on this team, but they’ve been a dominant unit the whole season, ranking 5th in first down rate through the first 6 games of the season at 40.68% and 1st in the past 8 games at 43.30%. The defensive improvement is the reason why this team now looks unbeatable. Since week 7, the Ravens have a ridiculous +13.11% first down rate differential, which is best in the NFL by a wide margin (the second ranked team is at +5.32%).

With the Ravens playing as well as they are and the Browns treading water at best, I have this line calculated at Baltimore -11. The Browns have recognizable stars on both sides of the ball, but are a top heavy roster with poor depth, so they might still be a little overrated, even with the way their season has gone. Some think that their previous victory over the Ravens is proof that they are the Ravens’ Achilles heel, but these are not the same teams as the last time and history suggests the Ravens actually have a better chance of covering this spread because they lost the previous matchup. Divisional road favorites of 3+ are 39-27 ATS since 1989 in a same season, regular season rematch against a team that beat them previously as home favorites. There’s not enough here to for the Ravens to be worth betting, but I like them for pick ‘em purposes.

Baltimore Ravens 33 Cleveland Browns 20

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -10

Confidence: Low

Kansas City Chiefs at Chicago Bears: 2019 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 16 NFL Picks, Bears, Chiefs, NFL Picks

Kansas City Chiefs (10-4) at Chicago Bears (7-7)

The now 7-7 Bears were officially eliminated from playoff contention with their loss to the Packers in Green Bay last week, a big disappointment for a team that went 12-4 a year ago. The Bears’ disappointing season isn’t a huge surprise though. They had the easiest schedule in the NFL last season and lost a pair of key defenders in free agency (safety Adrian Amos and cornerback Bryce Callahan) and their defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to the Broncos, a big blow to a defense that led the NFL in first down rate allowed by more than 2% last season. Their defense has still been strong, ranking 4th in first down rate allowed at 32.64%, but they’ve been more than 2% worse than last year’s dominant unit, while their offense has fallen to 27th in first down rate at 31.86%, struggling mightily against a tougher slate of defenses than last season.

That being said, I think we are getting some line value with the Bears as 6-point home underdogs against the Chiefs. This line suggests the Bears would be 11-point underdogs in Kansas City, but the Bears were just 4-point underdogs in Green Bay last week and held their own, with a chance to tie the game on the final drive. Their offense is a major problem, but their defense is still one of the best in the NFL, especially with stud defensive end Akiem Hicks back healthy. I have this line calculated at Chicago +3, so we’re getting good line value with them at +6. I wouldn’t recommend betting on the Bears because they could be flat after being eliminated from the post-season last week, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Final Update: Hicks was ruled out on Saturday despite getting a full practice in on Friday. This line has moved to a full touchdown to compensate, but I’m dropping this down to a no confidence pick. Hicks didn’t suffer a setback in his return against the Packers last week and would almost definitely be playing if the Bears hadn’t been eliminated, but the Bears are understandably being cautious with him. That could effect the psyche of this whole team in a meaningless game and cause some players to give less than 100%, even in a nationally televised game. That more than the actual football impact of Hicks not being on the field is why I’m dropping this to a no confidence pick.

Kansas City Chiefs 26 Chicago Bears 20

Pick against the spread: Chicago +7

Confidence: None

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: 2019 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 16 NFL Picks, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Seahawks

Arizona Cardinals (4-9-1) at Seattle Seahawks (11-3)

The Seahawks are 11-3 and control their own destiny for a first round bye, but most of their wins have been close, with all but one win coming by 8 points or fewer. In fact, their record in games decided by more than a single score is just 1-2. A win is a win for standings purposes, but blowout wins tend to be more predictive of future success than close wins. Their point differential of +26 is the worst ever for a 11-3 team and ranks just 11th in the NFL. In first down rate differential, they are even worse, ranking 19th in the league at -0.80%. Russell Wilson is a great quarterback who has been able to pull out close wins, but the rest of this team is pretty underwhelming when you compare them to the other contenders and they haven’t shown the ability to blow out anyone, even bad teams.

Their one win by more than one score came against the Cardinals, who happen to be their opponents this week. The Cardinals have 5 losses by double digits and 4 losses by 17 or more points, but their 17-point home loss to the Seahawks in week 4 was closer than the final score suggested, as the Seahawks had just a +3.39% first down differential in the game, with the margin of victory being inflated by a Seattle return touchdown and a pair of missed field goals by the Cardinals. 

The previous matchup between these two teams was in Arizona and this matchup is in Seattle, but the Seahawks are far from 100%. They’re getting defensive end Ezekiel Ansah back from injury this week, but will remain without top defensive end Jadeveon Clowney and will likely be without their top-2 defensive backs, Shaq Griffin and Quandre Diggs, and left tackle Duane Brown, all of whom did not practice on Friday. The Cardinals could easily keep this game within 10 points. They rank 28th in the NFL in first down rate differential on the season at -5.28%, but they aren’t that far behind the 19th ranked Seahawks in that metric, so my calculated line is Seattle -7.5. This is a low confidence pick for now, but If left guard Justin Pugh and wide receiver Christian Kirk are both able to play and/or this line moves up to 10, I would bet on the Cardinals.

Seattle Seahawks 27 Arizona Cardinals 20

Pick against the spread: Arizona +9.5

Confidence: Low

New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans: 2019 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 16 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Saints, Titans

New Orleans Saints (11-3) at Tennessee Titans (8-6)

Since turning to backup quarterback Ryan Tannehill in week 7, the Titans rank 5th in the NFL in first down rate differential at +4.37%. They are 6-2 over that stretch, after starting 2-4, with their only losses coming in games against the Panthers and Texans that they easily could have won if a few snaps went differently. Tannehill isn’t just game-managing this team either, as the Titans’ defense has actually been pretty underwhelming over that stretch due to injury absences, ranking 24th in first down rate differential at 37.28%, after ranking 4th at 30.93% through the first 6 games of the season, and 4th at 32.77% in 2018. The offense, which ranks 2nd in first down rate at 42.18% since Tannehill became the starter, has carried this team, after ranking 26th at 32.69% through the first 6 games of the season, and 24th at 34.12% in 2018. 

That being said, the Titans offense is unlikely to be quite this good going forward. They have talent around the quarterback position and Tannehill has proven he can be a capable starter, but it’s unlikely he has suddenly become a top level quarterback in his 8th season in the league. It would be reasonable to expect regression from him going forward, which the defense will need to compensate for. Unfortunately, their defense remains banged up, with edge defender Cameron Wake and cornerbacks Adoree Jackson and Malcolm Butler still out and defensive end Jeffery Simmons possibly joining them after missing practice on Friday with a lingering knee issue.

The Titans are still a competitive opponent, but we’re not getting the line value with them that we were a few weeks ago. With a dominant Saints team coming to town, the Titans are only 2.5-point home underdogs. The Saints lost a pair of key defensive linemen in their loss to the 49ers a couple weeks ago, with Marcus Davenport and Sheldon Rankins done for the year, and their defense ranks just 35.78% in first down rate allowed at 17th even with Davenport and Rankins playing most of the season, but their offense is definitely good enough to compensate. 

They have a 41.41% first down rate when Brees is on the field, which would be second best in the NFL on the season, and that arguably understates how good their offense will be going forward. They had a 43.48% first down rate differential in Brees’ starts last season and have been even better than that in recent weeks, with a 45.19% first down rate over the past 4 games. We’re still getting a little bit of line value with the Titans, as I have this line calculated at New Orleans -1, but we’re not getting enough line value with the Titans at +2.5 for them to be worth betting. The money line at +115 is worth a small play because the Titans odds of winning this game are close to 50/50, but this is a low confidence pick for pick ‘em purposes, unless the line moves up to a full field goal.

Final Update: Not only is Simmons out for the Titans, but running back Derrick Henry is a surprise inactive as well. Henry’s absence is obviously big, but, beyond the impact his absence will have on this team, the reasoning behind Henry being inactive is even more important to predicting this game. Due to how tiebreakers work, because this is a non-conference game, this is actually a rare case of a week 16 game not mattering at all for a potential playoff qualifier. With the Texans winning yesterday, the Titans have been eliminated from contention for a division title, but, regardless of the outcome of this game against the Saints, the Titans can still clinch a wild card berth if they beat the Texans next week and the Steelers lose one of their next two games. If the Steelers win out or the Titans lose to the Texans next week, the Titans are eliminated regardless of what happens in this non-conference matchup with the Saints. This line has skyrocketed to 3.5, but I’m really concerned about the Titans’ psyche in a meaningless game, so I’m switching this pick to New Orleans for a no confidence pick.

New Orleans Saints 27 Tennessee Titans 23

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -3.5

Confidence: None