New England Patriots (6-7) at Miami Dolphins (8-5)

The Patriots have been a tough team to predict this season because they’ve been one of the most inconsistent in the league, ranking 4th in the league in variance, only behind three teams that have had a lot more injury problems and, as a result, have started drastically different lineups at different points at this season, explaining a lot of the variance. The Patriots had some injuries earlier in the season when they lost by double digits to the 49ers and Chiefs and lost to the Broncos in upset fashion and they’ve been better in recent weeks, knocking off quality teams like the Ravens and Cardinals and blowing out the Chargers, but, even still, the Patriots have also lost to Houston during their recent stretch and were blown out by the Rams last week.

Overall, the Patriots have been a little bit above average. They have about an even point differential (-2), despite facing one of the tougher schedules in the league, and in terms of schedule adjusted first down rate differential, they rank 12th at 0.86%, which lines up with my roster rankings, which also have them 12th, now healthier than they were earlier this season during their most disappointing stretch. 

The Dolphins, meanwhile, have a couple more wins, but haven’t been as good overall. They’ve played a relatively easy schedule, with half of their wins coming against the three worst teams in the league (the Bengals, the Jaguars, and the Jets twice). Of their eight wins, just two have come against teams that currently have a winning record, a 3-point victory over the 7-6 Cardinals (who the Patriots also beat) and a win over the Rams in which the Dolphins managed just 8 first downs and 145 yards of offense and primarily won because they had return touchdowns of 78 yards and 88 yards, which certainly is not sustainable every week. 

Beyond those two return touchdowns, the Dolphins have generally benefited from metrics that are highly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, in addition to their easy schedule. The Dolphins lead the league in opponent’s field goal conversion rate at 60.00%, rank 8th in fumble recovery rate at 58.06%, and they have a +10 turnover margin, which ranks tied for 2nd in the NFL. As counterintuitive as it may seem, going against teams with impressive turnover margins this late in the season actually tends to be a smart move. Turnover margins are very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis and, as a result, teams with a turnover margin of +10 or more in week 15 or later, on average, have a +0.64 turnover margin over the final 3 games of the season, leading to them covering the spread at just a 46.2% rate in those games.

In terms of schedule adjusted first down rate differential, which is much more predictive, the Dolphins are a middling team, ranking 17th at +0.37%, behind their opponents, the New England Patriots. That is even better than their roster rankings, suggesting they’ve actually outperformed their talent level to get to this point. They rank 23rd in my roster rankings and, while they could move up if key questionable players like linebacker Kyle Van Noy, guard Ereck Flowers, and tight end Mike Gesicki suit up, if several of those players are unable to play, I am probably going to end up betting on the Patriots, even if we aren’t getting much line value with them as 1.5 point road underdogs. This is a low confidence pick for now (my calculated line is New England -2), but I may have an update when inactives are released.

Update: Van Noy will play for the Dolphins, but that’s where the good news ends on the Dolphins’ injury report, as not only will Gesicki and Flowers both be out, but the Dolphins will also be without their top-2 wide receivers Devante Parker and Jakeem Grant. Already thin in the receiving corps and on the offensive line, the Dolphins figure to have a tough time consistently stringing together drives in this game, even against a middling Patriots defense. The Patriots will be without running back Damien Harris, but they’re deep enough at running back that Harris’ absences won’t be a huge deal.

The line has dropped to New England +1, but I would lock this in ASAP in case the line shifts further. Also, I didn’t mention this earlier, but it’s worth noting that Bill Belichick is 45-33 ATS as the head coach of the Patriots off of extra rest, which the Patriots will have after playing on Thursday Night Football last week. And then there is Bill Belichick’s history of dominance against rookie quarterbacks like Tua Tugavailoa. If the Patriots hadn’t been so inconsistent and unpredictable this season, I would make this a high confidence pick.

New England Patriots 20 Miami Dolphins 16 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: New England +1

Confidence: Medium