New York Jets (0-13) at Los Angeles Rams (9-4)
As crazy as it sounds, the Jets might be a decent bet this week. The Jets obviously haven’t won a game, but winless teams are actually a good bet late in the season because the odds makers know they can boost the spread and people will still bet against them. Teams with records of 0-8 or worse cover at a 57.9% rate all-time, even if that is counterintuitive. That didn’t help the Jets last week in their blowout loss in Seattle, but I expect a better effort this week, which is typically the case after a blowout. Teams cover at 57.5% rate all-time after losing by 35 points or more. Combining the two aforementioned trends, teams are 14-5-2 ATS over the past 30 years with a record of 0-8, coming off of a loss by at least 14 points or more.
The Rams obviously have the talent edge, but they probably won’t bring their best effort for the Jets, especially with a much tougher game on deck against the Seahawks. Favorites cover at just a 42.9% rate when their next opponent has a winning percentage 50%+ higher than their current opponent. My calculated line is Rams -15, so we’re not getting much line value with the Jets, which makes it risky to bet on them, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes and if you want to take a risk, I would expect this game to be closer than most think.
Los Angeles Rams 24 New York Jets 13
Pick against the spread: NY Jets +17