Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers: 2020 Week 4 NFL Pick

October 3, 2020 stevenlourie 2020 NFL Picks, 2020 Week 4 NFL Picks, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Panthers

Arizona Cardinals (2-1) at Carolina Panthers (1-2)

The Cardinals have gotten off to a surprisingly strong start to the season on both sides of the ball. They have won the first down rate battle in each of their first three games of the season and not only do they rank 4th in the league in first down rate differential at +5.60%, but they’re also the only team in the league with an offense and a defense that both rank in the top-12 in first down rate and first down rate allowed. The Cardinals picked up their first loss of the season last week, but they only lost by three, despite losing the turnover battle by 3, and they won the first down rate battle by 10.50%. Turnover margins are very unpredictable on a week-to-week basis and it was actually impressive to see them keep it close despite their turnover issues.

Unfortunately, the Cardinals are very beat up this week, missing safeties Budda Baker and Chris Banjo and possibly wide receivers DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk and cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick. I wouldn’t expect their defense to continue playing this well all season either way, as they’ve largely outperformed their talent level and have had an easy schedule, but missing their safeties is a big blow, particularly Budda Baker, who has been arguably their best defensive player this year. Meanwhile, their offense, which has a good chance to maintain their high level of play long-term, will obviously find that much more difficult this week if Hopkins can’t go after not practicing all week.

The Panthers have a big injury absence with running back Christian McCaffrey on the sidelines, but they get a big boost on defense this week with stud defensive tackle Kawaan Short returning from injury, as well as cornerback Eli Apple, whose return should help to a lesser extent. With Hopkins being highly questionable for the Cardinals, I have the Cardinals just 3 points ahead of the Panthers in my roster rankings right now, so we’re getting value with the Panthers at home as 3-point underdogs. I wouldn’t recommend betting them unless Hopkins misses or unless this line moves up to 3.5, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes either way.

Arizona Cardinals 24 Carolina Panthers 23

Pick against the spread: Carolina +3

Confidence: Low

New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams: 2020 Week 4 NFL Pick

October 3, 2020 stevenlourie 2020 NFL Picks, 2020 Week 4 NFL Picks, Giants, NFL Picks, Rams

New York Giants (0-3) at Los Angeles Rams (2-1)

The Giants season has not gotten off to a good start, as they are winless at 0-3 and have lost probably their best player Saquon Barkley for the season. Their offense had a pathetic performance in their first full game without Barkley, managing just a 26.53% first down rate (13 first downs and no touchdowns on 49 plays) at home against a banged up 49ers defense in a 36-9 loss, pushing the Giants’ offense down to a 33.14% first down rate on the season that ranks 30th in the league, only ahead of the Broncos and the Jets. Those offensive issues should continue going forward without Barkley, which will overshadow a defense that has been surprisingly solid so far this season, ranking 11th with a 37.31% first down rate allowed.

The Giants have a tougher test this week, on the road against a solid Rams team that doesn’t have any significant injury absences. The Giants are also in a tough spot, as they have another tough game on deck in Dallas against the Cowboys, while the Rams have only an easy matchup in Washington on deck. Favorites of 7+ are 102-59 ATS since 2012 before being favorites of 7+ again, while underdogs of 7+ are 55-90 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs of 7+ again. Combining the two, favorites of 7+ are 27-5 ATS since 2012 before being favorites of 7+ again when their opponent will be underdogs of 7+ again the following week.

Good teams tend to take care of business against bad teams without upcoming distractions on their schedule, while bad teams tend to struggle to keep it close against good teams when they have another tough game on deck. All of those conditions should be true this week. This line is steep at 13.5 (my calculated line is actually only 10, because the Giants have a solid defense), but the Rams should still be the pick for pick ‘em purposes because they’re in a great spot and they are much better coached.

Los Angeles Rams 26 New York Giants 10

Pick against the spread: LA Rams -13.5

Confidence: Low

Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders: 2020 Week 4 NFL Pick

October 3, 2020 stevenlourie 2020 NFL Picks, 2020 Week 4 NFL Picks, Bills, NFL Picks, Raiders

Buffalo Bills (3-0) at Las Vegas Raiders (2-1)

The Bills got a huge victory last week at home over the Rams. Coming into the season, the big question was whether or not this team could elevate their level of play against tougher competition. The Bills made the post-season last year, but they had a very easy schedule and did not perform well in their tougher games. They went just 1-5 against teams that finished with a winning record, with their only win coming against the Marcus Mariota-led Titans in a game in which the Titans missed 4 field goals and lost by 7. Even with that win against the Titans included, quarterback Josh Allen completed just 51.7% of his passes for an average of 5.65 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions against winning teams, as opposed to 62.6% completion, 7.26 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions against .500 or worse teams.

With their schedule getting much tougher this season, the Bills needed to take a step forward against winning competition if they wanted to make it back to the post-season. I thought they had a chance to, given the addition of Stefon Diggs at wide receiver and the likely improvement of quarterback Josh Allen in his third season, and the Rams last week were their first chance to test that, after the Bills opened they season by taking care of business against a pair of bad teams in the Jets and Dolphins.

It wasn’t a convincing win for Buffalo, as they blew a 28-3 lead to allow the Rams to pull ahead at one point late, but ultimately they got the win by closing the Rams out with a late touchdown drive. Now 3-0, the Bills might not be an elite team, but they seem to have taken a step forward from last season. How much of a step forward might not be clear until they face tougher competition, and they’ve been lucky to avoid injuries thus far, but they currently rank 9th in my roster rankings, so they’re not going to be an easy team for anyone to defeat unless injuries strike.

The Bills won’t be tested as much this week as it looks as first glance. They are traveling to face a 2-1 Raiders team, but the Raiders have a negative first down rate differential at -0.15% and are really beat up in this game. In total, they are missing a pair of starting offensive lineman in left guard Richie Incognito and right tackle Trent Brown, their top-two outside receivers in Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards, and top cornerback Damon Arnette, pushing them down to 22nd in my roster rankings.

The Raiders are also in a tough spot, as they have another big game on deck in Kansas City, a game in which they are currently projected to be 11.5-point underdogs. Teams are 40-74 ATS since 2016 before being underdogs of 10 points or more, as that tends to serve as a big upcoming distraction. At far less than 100% health wise, in a tough scheduling spot, the Raiders could struggle against a team like the Bills, even at home, where they won’t have the benefit of fans. I have this line calculated at Buffalo -4.5 even before taking into account that the Raiders could get caught looking ahead this week, so the Bills are worth a play this week at -3. The Raiders have had a tendency to get blown out over the past two seasons (7 of 10 losses coming by 16 points or more) and Buffalo is good enough to give them another big loss this week.

Buffalo Bills 24 Las Vegas Raiders 17

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -3

Confidence: Medium

Baltimore Ravens at Washington Mascots: 2020 Week 4 NFL Pick

October 3, 2020 stevenlourie 2020 NFL Picks, 2020 Week 4 NFL Picks, Commanders, NFL Picks, Ravens

Baltimore Ravens (2-1) at Washington Mascots (1-2)

The Ravens lost at home to the Chiefs last week 34-20 in a game that was not nearly as close as the final score suggested. The Ravens got 11 points of benefit from special teams, returning a kick, while the Chiefs missed an extra point and a makeable field goal, and the Ravens’ offense didn’t actually get into the end zone themselves until the fourth quarter. Overall, the Ravens lost the first down rate battle by 14.50%, not only their worst single game regular season performance since Lamar Jackson took over as the starter in the middle of the 2018 season, but also their third loss to the Chiefs over that stretch, accounting for all but one of their regular season losses.

The Ravens are also 0-2 in the playoffs, but their 2018 loss came before Lamar Jackson developed as a passer, and their 2019 loss to the Titans was largely decided by the Ravens going 0 for 4 on 4th down and having a -3 turnover margin, two very inconsistent metrics and very uncharacteristic for the Ravens over the past couple years. The Ravens did lose the first down rate battle in that game, but only by 3.24% and it came against a red hot Titans team. Prior to last week, that playoff game was the Ravens’ only first down rate battle loss since week 9 of 2019, a now 13-game stretch in which they have 9 wins by at least 16 points and 7 wins by at least 10% in first down rate differential. Even including last week’s embarrassing loss, albeit to one of the top teams in the league, the Ravens are still on a very impressive stretch right now.

I like their chances of picking up another blowout victory this week, playing a team that is one of the worst in the league when healthy and that is now missing arguably it’s top player on both sides of the ball, guard Brandon Scherff on offense and edge defender Chase Young on defense. The Ravens are also in a great spot, with only another easy game against the Bengals on deck, while Washington has another tough game on deck against the Rams.

Favorites of 7+ are 102-59 ATS since 2012 before being favorites of 7+ again, while underdogs of 7+ are 55-90 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs of 7+ again. Combining the two, favorites of 7+ are 27-5 ATS since 2012 before being favorites of 7+ again when their opponent will be underdogs of 7+ again the following week. Good teams tend to take care of business against bad teams without upcoming distractions on their schedule, while bad teams tend to struggle to keep it close against good teams with another tough game on deck. All of those conditions should be true this week.

This game is in Washington, but with no fans in attendance and the Ravens only coming from about an hour away in Baltimore, it’s hard to see any real homefield advantage in this game, so, while this line may seem high at 14, it’s arguably a little low. Given that, and the great spot the Ravens are in, I like the Ravens’ chances a lot of making this a blowout. My only concerns are that the Ravens hold out injured players like left tackle Ronnie Stanley, Jimmy Smith, and Derek Wolfe against an easy opponent and/or they take their foot off the gas in the second half and allow a backdoor cover, although that’s probably less likely with the Ravens needing to get right after last week. This is a medium confidence play for now, but if all the aforementioned players are active, I may increase this bet tomorrow morning.

Baltimore Ravens 30 Washington Mascots 10

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -14

Confidence: Medium

New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions: 2020 Week 4 NFL Pick

October 3, 2020 stevenlourie 2020 NFL Picks, 2020 Week 4 NFL Picks, Lions, NFL Picks, Saints

New Orleans Saints (1-2) at Detroit Lions (1-2)

The Saints are off to one of the most disappointing starts in the league, as this expected Super Bowl contender has started just 1-2, including back-to-back losses as favorites against the Raiders and Packers. The Saints’ early season schedule has been tough and they’ve historically struggled early in the season (4-17-1 ATS in weeks 1-2 since 2010, as compared to 85-54-2 ATS in week 3-17), but I’m not so sure they’re about to turn things around.

With quarterback Drew Brees going into his age 41 season, his early season struggles could easily be a sign of more to come. On top of that, while top wide receiver Michael Thomas was expected back this week, not only is he not returning, but the Saints’ injury situation is getting even worse, with tight end Jared Cook joining Thomas on the sidelines from the offense and cornerbacks Marshon Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins joining edge defender Marcus Davenport, who has been out all season, on the sidelines from the defense.

The Lions, meanwhile, are going in the other direction injury wise. They got top wide receiver Kenny Golladay and starting offensive lineman Halapoulivaati Vaitai back last week and this week they are expected to get back cornerback Desmond Trufant, who was expected to be their top cornerback before he got hurt. The Lions’ weren’t overly impressive in picking up their first win of the season in Arizona last week, as they needed to win the turnover margin by 3 to even win that game by 3, something they won’t be able to rely on every week, and they’ve been very underwhelming so far to start the season, ranking 2nd to last in first down rate differential at -8.37%, only ahead of the Jets, but this team is much more talented than that suggests, as their talent level is in line with a middling team when they’re relatively healthy like they are now.

I have the Lions 17th in my roster rankings, just a few spots behind the 10th ranked Saints, so we’re getting decent line value with the Lions, who are getting a full field goal at home. This is a small bet because it certainly wouldn’t surprise me if the Saints were able to exceed expectations and start their annual mid-season run, while the Lions really haven’t played well yet this season, but the Lions have a good chance to keep this close or even to pull the straight up upset, given the differing injury situations these two teams are in.

New Orleans Saints 31 Detroit Lions 30

Pick against the spread: Detroit +3

Confidence: Medium

Cleveland Browns at Dallas Cowboys: 2020 Week 4 NFL Pick

October 3, 2020 stevenlourie 2020 NFL Picks, 2020 Week 4 NFL Picks, Browns, Cowboys, NFL Picks

Cleveland Browns (2-1) at Dallas Cowboys (1-2)

Coming into the year, I liked the Cowboys’ chances of being a contender, after tough luck in close games in 2019 (0-5 in games decided by 7 points or fewer after going 8-2 in those type of games with roughly the same team in 2018) led to the Cowboys missing the playoffs at 8-8, despite finishing 6th in the league in point differential at +113 and 4th in first down rate differential at +4.28%.

The Cowboys are just 1-2, but they’ve played better than that suggests, with their two losses coming on the road in close games against tough opponents in the Seahawks and Rams. Their one win was an improbable comeback over the Falcons, in which they needed to recover an onside kick to win, but there were some fluky things that led to the Cowboys needing to come back in the first place, like the Cowboys losing a trio of fumbles early. The Cowboys won the first down rate battle in that game by 10.80% and overall rank 7th in the league on the season at +4.38%, very much in line with how they played last season. That’s a good sign for their chances going forward.

What’s even more impressive is that the Cowboys have done this while not being close to full strength, missing their dominant offensive tackle duo of Tyron Smith and La’El Collins, pass catching tight end Blake Jarwin, every down linebacker Leighton Vander Esch and his potential replacement Sean Lee, and starting cornerbacks Chidobe Awuzie and Anthony Brown. They’re not the only team in the league to have significant injuries right now, but they’ve played well in spite of them, primarily due to quarterback Dak Prescott seemingly being on his way to his best season yet. If they can get healthy soon, they could easily be a dangerous team.

The Cowboys do get one key player back from injury this week in left tackle Tyron Smith, who is set to return from a 2-game absence. Unfortunately, the Cowboys have a tough matchup for Smith’s first game back, as even with Smith in the lineup, I have the Browns slightly higher in my roster rankings. The Browns’ season has started with a blowout loss to a dominant Ravens team and easy wins against the Bengals and Redskins (The Bengals needed to go 5 for 5 on 4th down just to cut the lead to 5 points at the last second). They haven’t been overly impressive, but they’re getting healthier and have been particularly impressive on the offensive line, where all five starters have played at a high level, a great sign, given that their offensive line was the primary reason for their disappointing 2019 season.

The Browns enter this game 10th in my roster rankings, a couple spots ahead of the Cowboys, who don’t have full homefield advantage either, so this 4.5-point line is too high. I wouldn’t go crazy betting on the Browns because I still like the Cowboys’ chances long-term if they can get healthier, but this should be a close game, with the most likely results being either team winning by exactly a field goal, two outcomes that would both result in a Browns cover.

Dallas Cowboys 30 Cleveland Browns 27

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +4.5

Confidence: Medium

Los Angeles Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2020 Week 4 NFL Pick

October 2, 2020 stevenlourie 2020 NFL Picks, 2020 Week 4 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Chargers, NFL Picks

Los Angeles Chargers (1-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1)

The Buccaneers lost week one in New Orleans, but that was primarily due to the Buccaneers having a -3 turnover margin, which is not a predictable week-to-week metric. The Buccaneers actually won the first down rate battle by 8.18% in that game and they have gone on to defeat the Panthers and Broncos by a combined 32 points in the two weeks since. Overall, the Buccaneers rank 2nd in the NFL with a +6.31% first down rate differential.

The Buccaneers haven’t had the toughest schedule, but I had high expectations for them coming into the season and, if anything I’ve been more impressed with them because of how they’ve achieved that 2nd ranked first down rate differential. While their offense has been nothing to write home about, ranking 21st in first down rate at 37.43%, their defense has led the league with a 31.12% first down rate allowed.

Their offense figures to get better as the season goes on, given they have a lot of new parts to integrate, so it’s great to see their defense pick up right where they left off down the stretch last season, when they had the 4th lowest first down rate allowed in the league during the final 8 weeks of the season, in large part due to the development of their young secondary, which had previously struggled mightily. This might not be the best defense in the league all season, or even top-5, but their expected offensive improvement should more than offset that and it’s clear that this is a balanced team that can win a lot of different kinds of games.

This week, the Buccaneers host a banged up Chargers team, which is missing starting cornerback Chris Harris, starting edge defender Melvin Ingram, starting wide receiver Mike Williams, and the right side of their offensive line, guard Trai Turner and right tackle Bryan Bulaga, in addition to stud safety Derwin James, who has been out since training camp. The Buccaneers aren’t at full strength either with Chris Godwin out, but they still have Mike Evans and other weapons and they haven’t had their receiving corps at full strength really all season, so their injury situation isn’t really comparable to the Chargers’ situation, which primarily involves new injuries as of the past week.

I have the Buccaneers 10 points better than the Chargers in their current injury situation, as they are one of the top teams in the league facing off against a team that is in the bottom third without their key absences. Given that, we’re getting a lot of value with the Buccaneers as mere 6.5-point home favorites. This is a team that could easily start to go on a big run and they should be able to win this game by at least a touchdown, if not possibly a lot more. This is my Pick of the Week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 Los Angeles Chargers 10

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay -6.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears: 2020 Week 4 NFL Pick

October 2, 2020 stevenlourie 2020 NFL Picks, 2020 Week 4 NFL Picks, Bears, Colts, NFL Picks

Indianapolis Colts (2-1) at Chicago Bears (3-0)

The Colts surprisingly lost week one in Jacksonville, but that was a close game that swung on the Colts -2 turnover margin, which is not a predictable metric on a week-to-week basis. In two games since, the Colts have dominated the Vikings and Jets, winning by a combined 46 points, and now lead the league in first down rate differential (+8.81%), and DVOA as well. They haven’t faced a tough schedule, but I had them as a top-5 team entering the season and I don’t see any reason to change that, especially if they continue to avoid the major injuries that have plagued much of the league. The Colts aren’t fully 100%, but they still rank 2nd overall in my roster rankings right now.

The Bears have also gotten off to a good start at 3-0, but they haven’t won any of their games convincingly, with their biggest margin of victory being 4 points and two of their three wins coming in improbable last second comebacks. They actually have a negative first down rate differential at -0.49%%, despite their record, and they rank middle of the pack in my roster rankings as well, even without major injuries. I have this line calculated at Indianapolis -4.5, so I like the value we’re getting with them at -2.5 a lot, as it crosses the key number of three and the lesser key number of 4. The Colts should win this game with relative ease, especially with the Bears lacking normal homefield advantage, so they’re a good bet if you can get them as favorites of less than a field goal.

Indianapolis Colts 23 Chicago Bears 17

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -2.5

Confidence: High

Denver Broncos at New York Jets: 2020 Week 4 NFL Pick

September 30, 2020October 1, 2020 stevenlourie 2020 NFL Picks, 2020 Week 4 NFL Picks, Broncos, Jets, NFL Picks

Denver Broncos (0-3) at New York Jets (0-3)

This is a tough one, because there are really no good arguments for either side. Both teams are 0-3 and deservedly so and, with the line being even, this is a straight win/loss pick ‘em. The Broncos came into the season with a lot of potential, but they’ve been derailed by injuries, losing starting quarterback Drew Lock, top wide receiver Courtland Sutton, starting right tackle Elijah Wilkinson, top defensive lineman Jurrell Casey, stud edge defender Von Miller, starting linebacker Mark Barron, and cornerback AJ Bouye already in this young season. Backup quarterback Jeff Driskel proved to be in over his head and has been pulled for third string quarterback Brett Rypien, a 2019 undrafted free agent who will make his first start in this game.

The Jets, meanwhile, came into the season with much less potential. Already an underwhelming team, the Jets lost linebacker CJ Mosley to an opt-out and traded Jamal Adams to the Seahawks before the season, stripping them of their top-2 defensive players before the year even began. Things have gotten even worse though, primarily due to injuries. The Jets haven’t quite had the Broncos’ injury issues, but they played last week without their top-3 wide receivers and their starting running back, leaving them devoid of skill position talent on offense. Quarterback Sam Darnold also hasn’t progressed in his third year in the league, so this offense has been tremendously stagnant, with a 29.14% first down rate differential that is not only dead last in the league, but 9.88% less than league average.

The Broncos have been the better team this season, ranking 22nd in first down rate differential (-2.24%), as compared to dead last 32nd (-10.65%) for the Jets, but I don’t really want to take an unproven third string quarterback on a short week on the road, even if it is against a team like the Jets in a year where homefield advantage is diminished. My roster rankings, which takes into account the Broncos’ quarterback situation, has the Broncos 31st and the Jets 32nd, giving the Broncos just a half point edge. Ultimately, this decision is going to come down to injuries. I’m taking the Jets for a no confidence pick, but they could be without talented rookie left tackle Mekhi Becton and/or could get wide receiver Jamison Crowder back to give them some much needed skill position talent. Depending on the injury report, I may change this to a no confidence pick the other way.

New York Jets 16 Denver Broncos 14

Pick against the spread: NY Jets PK

Confidence: None