Philadelphia Eagles (3-6) at Denver Broncos (5-4)
The Eagles are just 3-6, but they also have a +9 point differential, despite facing one of the tougher schedules in the NFL. All but one of their six losses have come to teams with a winning record, with the exception being a 49ers team that has played significantly better than their record suggests. The three easiest games the Eagles have faced this season were all victories for the Eagles, including a pair of blowout wins over the Lions and Falcons. The Broncos aren’t quite as bad as those two teams, who are among the worst teams in the league, but they fit much more in line with the teams the Eagles have beaten than the teams the Eagles have lost to.
The Broncos won last week in Dallas in shocking fashion, but I think that has more to do with the Cowboys not showing up than anything the Broncos did. This is still a team that has won just two of their last six games since starting 3-0 against a very easy schedule, with the other being a one score win over a mediocre Washington team in a game in which Denver blocked a pair of field goals, and they still have a significant amount of key players no longer with the team since their hot start.
In total, the Broncos are without stud left tackle Garret Bolles, above average starting right guard Graham Glasgow, talented edge defender duo Von Miller and Bradley Chubb, every down middle linebackers Josey Jewell and Alexander Johnson, and impressive slot cornerback Bryce Callahan, all of whom started for the Broncos week one. Without those players, the Broncos still rank well below average in my roster rankings, about five points below average, even despite their upset win last week.
If anything the Broncos’ win last week just puts them in a bad spot this week, as it could be tough for the Broncos to maintain that same effort two weeks in a row, especially with a team with a losing record coming to town. Teams cover at just a 41.2% rate all-time after a win as double digit underdogs, as teams tend to be a combination of flat and/or overvalued by the public and odds makers in that situation. In this case, it seems like both, as we are getting a ton of value with the Eagles at +2.5. My calculated line has the Eagles favored by 4 points, even before taking into account that the Broncos could be flat. This is my favorite play of the week.
Philadelphia Eagles 24 Denver Broncos 17 Upset Pick +115
Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +2.5
Confidence: Pick of the Week