New England Patriots (1-2) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)
The Patriots will play this game with backup quarterback Brian Hoyer under center instead of Mac Jones, which puts them at a distinct disadvantage, while the Packers have gotten back offensive linemen David Bakhtiari, Elgton Jenkins, and Jon Runyan and wide receivers Allen Lazard and Christian Watson, all of whom missed time early this season and have since returned, giving them a much better supporting cast around Aaron Rodgers. They didn’t score a lot in Tampa Bay last week, but they’re even healthier this week and the Buccaneers have one of the best defenses in the league, so it wasn’t that bad that the Packers didn’t perform that well offensively. Even with that game included, the Packers still rank a solid 11th in offensive efficiency on the season, despite all of their injuries. Led by that offense, the Packers rank 12th in overall efficiency, as opposed to the Patriots, who rank just 23rd, even with Mac Jones healthy.
With the Packers being the significantly healthier and better team team, they are favorites of 9.5 points in this game, which would be around the correct line, if not for the fact that the Packers have had an incredible homefield advantage in recent years, going 47-19 ATS in the regular season at home in games started and finished by Aaron Rodgers. Because of that, this line should be set even higher. There isn’t quite enough here for the Packers to be worth betting with this line already being so high, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.
Green Bay Packers 24 New England Patriots 13
Pick against the spread: Green Bay -9.5