Seattle Seahawks (1-2) at Detroit Lions (1-2)

This line has moved from favoring the Lions by 6 points on the early line last week to just 3.5 points this week, but I don’t think the line has moved enough, with the Lions losing feature back D’Andre Swift and #1 wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown to injury, while already missing starting guards Jonah Jackson and Halapoulivaati Vaitai. That will make it very difficult for this offense to function like it has been to start the season, which is a problem for a team with a defense that is still underwhelming at best. 

I actually have the Seahawks slightly ahead of the Lions in my roster rankings, so we’re getting good line value with them as 3.5 point underdogs. My calculated line has Detroit favored by two points and, while it might not seem like much, 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly three points, so getting the Seahawks at +3.5 is a big deal, especially since that is the number that covers the spread most often (53.0%). All in all, 1 in 4 games are decided by three points or fewer and the Seahawks have a good chance to keep this game close or even pull the outright upset. This isn’t a big play, but the Seahawks are worth betting this week.

Detroit Lions 30 Seattle Seahawks 28

Pick against the spread: Seattle +3.5

Confidence: Medium