Buffalo Bills (4-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-1)

You could make a strong argument that these are the two best teams in the league. Both have a loss, unlike the league’s lone remaining undefeated Philadelphia Eagles, but both losses were very close and they are the two highest ranked teams in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, with the Bills leading the league and having a .7 point edge over the Chiefs. My roster rankings reflect that as well, with the Bills having a 1.2 point edge over the 2nd ranked Chiefs, especially now that they are getting healthy, with tight end Dawson Knox, center Mitch Morse, interior defenders Ed Oliver and Jordan Phillips, safety Jordan Poyer, and linebacker Tremaine Edmunds all in the lineup this week after missing time earlier this season.

The Bills may be a little overvalued though, as 2.5-point favorites on the road in Kansas City. These two teams are closer than that suggests and the Chiefs should at least be slight favorites at home in this matchup, with my calculated line at Kansas City -1.5. I would need a full field goal for the Chiefs to be worth betting against the spread, but the money line is a good value at +125 and the Chiefs should be the pick for pick ‘em purposes, as this game should be a toss up at worst.

Kansas City Chiefs 31 Buffalo Bills 30 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Kansas City +2.5

Confidence: Low