Month: November 2022

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (6-3) at Minnesota Vikings (8-1)

The Vikings are 8-1, but they have won all seven of their one-score games and have won the turnover battle by 8 (2nd best in the NFL), both of which are not sustainable long-term. They beat the Bills last week, but Buffalo was missing several key defenders and, despite that, the Vikings lost the first down rate battle and yards per play battle by 9.04% and 0.66 respectively, needing to win the turnover battle by two and to score a defensive touchdown to barely win in overtime. 

Even with that win taken into account, the Vikings still rank just 19th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about one point below average, which is much more predictive than turnover margin. The Cowboys are a couple games worse in the standings, but rank about 3.5 points above average in schedule adjusted efficiency, 8th in the league, even though starting quarterback Dak Prescott missed five games with injury. The public and the oddsmakers both seem to understand that though, leading to the Vikings actually being 2-point home underdogs in this game.

With that in mind, I actually like the Vikings for pick ‘em purposes. While there is a significant gap between these two teams in schedule adjusted efficiency, my roster rankings have them much closer together, with the Vikings still among the most talented teams in the league, despite what the statistics say, and I think the Vikings could play with a chip on their shoulder being underdogs yet again. There isn’t enough here for the Vikings to be worth betting against the spread, but they seem like the right side for pick ‘em purposes and a small bet on the money line at +105 makes sense as well, as the Vikings should be considered no worse than 50/50 to win this game here at home.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Dallas Cowboys 23 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Minnesota +1.5

Confidence: Low

Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (3-7) at Atlanta Falcons (4-6)

A week ago on the early line, the Falcons were 5-point favorites, but this line has since shrunk to favor the Falcons by 3, a significant line movement, considering about 1 in 5 games are decided by 3-4 points exactly. That is likely due to the Falcons losing to the Panthers, but the Falcons split the yards per play and first down rate battle in that game, as the Bears did in their loss to the Lions, so I don’t think those results warrant this line movement. I normally like to go against significant week-to-week line movements like that and my calculated line actually has the Falcons favored by 7 points, as the Falcons have a 5.5-point edge over the Bears in schedule adjusted efficiency and a 5-point edge in my roster rankings. 

The Bears have been better on offense in recent weeks, but their defense has been horrendous since trading away Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith, two of their best defensive players. The Falcons are bettable as mere 3-point home favorites and, while this is a small bet for now, I would increase this to a high confidence pick if top cornerback AJ Terrell returns from injury for the Falcons, a strong possibility and something that would be a big boost after a 3-game absence, and/or if this line drops down to 2.5, which also seems like a possibility, with the public all over the Bears for some reason.

Update: -2.5s are showing up Sunday morning, so I am going to increase this bet.

Atlanta Falcons 31 Chicago Bears 24

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -2.5

Confidence: High

Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (4-6) vs. San Francisco 49ers (5-4) in Mexico City

Typically the rule of thumb is to take the favorite in neutral site international games, as the better team tends to have a bigger international fan base and tends to be better suited to play in a weird situation like this, leading to the favorite covering at a 62.8% rate (27-16 ATS) all-time. The 49ers are 8-point favorites, but that’s probably not high enough. The Cardinals are 4-6, which isn’t bad, but they have needed a +5 turnover margin (5th best in the NFL) just to sustain that mediocre record and turnover margins are not predictive week-to-week. Meanwhile, in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which is much more predictive, the Cardinals rank just 25th, four points below average.

My roster rankings have the Cardinals even worse, 8.5 points below average, due to injuries, primarily on the offensive line, with arguably their top-4 offensive linemen left tackle DJ Humphries, left guard Justin Pugh, right guard Will Hernandez and center Rodney Hudson all out. Starting quarterback Kyler Murray is also questionable and, while backup Colt McCoy is a decent replacement, he doesn’t give this offense the same upside as Murray, especially behind an injured offensive line and, even if Murray plays, he might not be quick as mobile this week, due to his lingering hamstring injury, also a problem behind a banged up offensive line.

The 49ers, meanwhile, are much better than their 5-4 record, ranking 8th in point differential at +35 and 5th in schedule adjusted efficiency, five points above average. The 49ers are also healthier now than they were earlier in the season. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel, tight end George Kittle, and left tackle Trent Williams are all among their best offensive players and all missed time earlier this season, but all three have returned, a huge boost for an offense that also got a big boost from adding Christian McCaffrey in a trade a few weeks ago. The 49ers’ defense also got healthier out of the bye, with linebackers Dre Greenlaw and Azeez Al-Shaair and safety Jimmie Ward returning to action last week. My calculated line has the 49ers favored by 11.5 on a neutral site and, in a good spot as well, I think the 49ers are bettable.

San Francisco 49ers 28 Arizona Cardinals 16

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -8

Confidence: Medium

New York Jets at New England Patriots: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (6-3) at New England Patriots (5-4)

The Patriots play again a few days after this game, facing the Vikings on Thanksgiving, which would normally put the Patriots in a bad spot, as favorites cover at just a 44.6% rate before Thursday Night Football, but the Patriots are also coming off of a bye, which might nullify that somewhat. There isn’t a large sample size of favorites playing between a bye week and a Thursday game, but teams are 9-10 ATS in that spot, which isn’t good, but it’s not particularly bad either and it makes sense that having extra rest beforehand would somewhat offset having an upcoming short turnaround, so I wouldn’t shy away from the Patriots this week just because they have to play again a few days after this one.

That being said, I do still like the Jets a little bit at +3.5, as I expect this to be a close, low scoring game, with two teams that have much better defenses than offenses. About 1 in 4 games are decided by three points or fewer and this seems likely to be one of them. However, this is a no confidence pick and, if the line were to move to three, I would like the Patriots at that number more than I like the Jets at this number, so I would change my pick in that circumstance. Either way, there’s nothing worth betting on here and this is one of my lowest confidence picks of the week.

New England Patriots 19 New York Jets 16

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +3.5

Confidence: None

Detroit Lions at New York Giants: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (3-6) at New York Giants (7-2)

This line moved from favoring the Giants by four points on the early line last week to just three points this week, a significant swing given that 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly three points. Normally I like to go against a significant week-to-week line movement like that as it tends to be an overreaction, but, in this case, I don’t think the line has moved far enough and was too high to begin with. The Giants beat the Texans last week, but the Texans are arguably the worst team in the league and the Giants needed to win the turnover margin by two to win the game by eight and they lost the first down rate battle and yards per play battle by 8.12% and 0.97 respectively, which are much more predictive than turnovers. 

The Giants are 7-2 overall, but all of their wins have come by eight points or fewer, with all but two coming against sub-.500 teams, and several of their wins have required comebacks, with the Giants ranking just 27th in time leading per game, despite their record. They could beat the Lions and move to 8-2, but I expect the Lions to keep this game close and, with this line at a full field goal, the Lions seem like the better side, at least for pick ‘em purposes. There isn’t enough here for the Giants to be worth betting, but, with my calculated line at NY Giants -1.5, I expect this to be a close game and one the Lions could end up winning.

New York Giants 24 Detroit Lions 23

Pick against the spread: Detroit +3

Confidence: Low

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (3-6) at New Orleans Saints (3-6)

Both of these teams are 3-6 and have serious injury problems, among the worst in the league. The Rams will get quarterback Matt Stafford back from a one-game absence with a concussion, but he’ll return to a team that lost arguably the best wide receiver in the league in Cooper Kupp to injury and that is without a trio of starting offensive linemen, left tackle Joe Noteboom, left guard David Edwards, and center Brian Allen from what was already a shaky offensive line entering the season. The Rams’ defense still remains an above average unit, but the absence of their best offensive player and three key offensive linemen has left their offense well below average.

The Saints, meanwhile, have injury problems on both sides of the ball. On offense, they will be without top wide receiver Michael Thomas, starting left tackle James Hurst, and starting center Erik McCoy, while their defense will be without top cornerback Marshon Lattimore, talented starting linebacker Pete Werner, and their stud edge defender duo of Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport. The Saints have a one-point edge in schedule adjusted efficiency and a one-point edge in my roster rankings, but they’re also field goal favorites at home, which is about what they should be. My numbers suggest the Saints are slightly more likely to cover at this number, but this is a no confidence pick and a push is a likely outcome, given that one in six games are decided by exactly three points.

New Orleans Saints 20 Los Angeles Rams 17

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -3

Confidence: None

Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Las Vegas Raiders (2-7) at Denver Broncos (3-6)

The Broncos are off to a disappointing start, sitting at 3-6, while ranking 26th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about five points below average, suggesting they’ve played just as bad, if not worse than their record suggests. Injuries have been a huge part of the problem, with starting running back Javonte Williams, starting wide receiver Tim Patrick, stud left tackle Garrett Bolles, starting right tackle candidates Tom Compton and Billy Turner, starting center candidates Graham Glasgow and Lloyd Cushenberry, talented edge defenders Randy Gregory and Baron Browning, top linebacker Josey Jewell, top safety Justin Simmons, and starting cornerback Ronald Darby all missing significant time with injury to begin the season. 

The majority of those players remain out, with Simmons and Jewell returning a few weeks back, and Glasgow, Browning, and Compton possibly returning this week, but none of those players are guaranteed to return and the Broncos have some new injury absences as well, with starting linebacker Jonas Griffith, talented slot cornerback K’Waun Williams, and starting wide receiver Jerry Jeudy all going down in the past week. The Broncos also traded away edge defender Bradley Chubb for draft picks at the trade deadline, which is another big loss. With Glasgow, Browning, and Compton questionable and the rest of those players out, I have the Broncos 7.5 points below average in my roster rankings, which would be even worse if those aforementioned players didn’t play.

The Raiders are off to a disappointing 2-7 start as well, but they are healthy and have overall played better, possessing a 2.5-point edge in schedule adjusted efficiency and a 5-point edge in my roster rankings. Despite that, the Raiders are 2.5 point underdogs in Denver, suggesting these two teams are about even. My calculated line has the Raiders favored by 2.5 points, so we’re getting good line value with the Raiders at +2.5. I don’t want to lock in this bet until I know the status of Compton, Glasgow, and Browning and I am holding out hope that we will get a +3 at some point, but the Raiders are the pick for pick ‘em purposes either way, even at +2.5, and the money line is a good value as well at +125, as the Raiders should be the ones at least slightly favored in this matchup.

Update: +3s have started showing up, so I am going to lock in a bet at that number.

Las Vegas Raiders 20 Denver Broncos 17 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Las Vegas +3

Confidence: Medium

Washington Commanders at Houston Texans: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Washington Commanders (5-5) at Houston Texans (1-7-1)

This line shifted from favoring the Commanders by 2.5 points on the early line last week to 3 points this week, a significant shift considering 1 in 6 games are decided by a field goal exactly. That’s because the Commanders pulled the surprising upset in Philadelphia last week, winning as 11-point underdogs to give the Eagles their first loss of the season, but teams tend not to follow up big upsets well, covering the spread at a 42.0% rate after winning a game as double digit underdogs. The Commanders also won that game because they converted 13 of 22 on third and fourth down and won the turnover battle by two, both of which are not predictive. 

Meanwhile, the Commanders lost the first down rate battle by 8.09% and the yards per play battle by 1.54, which are much more predictive, so I still consider them a mediocre team. The Texans are arguably the worst team in the league, but they’re not as bad as the worst team in the league is in most years and the Commanders are the type of team they can beat in a home game, especially if the Commanders don’t take them seriously after a huge upset win last week. Getting a full field goal, the Texans are worth a bet this week and there’s a decent chance they can pull the straight up upset, so the money line (+140) is a good bet as well.

Houston Texans 17 Washington Commanders 16 Upset Pick +140

Pick against the spread: Houston +3

Confidence: Medium

Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (8-1) at Indianapolis Colts (4-5-1)

The Eagles lost their first game of the season last week at home against the Washington Commanders, but that was primarily because the Commanders converted 13 of 22 on third and fourth downs and won the turnover battle by two, allowing Washington to win despite losing the first down rate battle by 8.09% and the yards per play battle by 1.54. Losses like that tend to be a complete fluke, as first downs and yards tend to be much more predictive than turnover margins and third and fourth downs. 

Even after losing the turnover battle last week, the Eagles still lead the league in turnover margin, having a +15 turnover margin across their 8-0 start, and, while turnover margin isn’t predictive, the Eagles also rank 4th in schedule adjusted efficiency, which is much more predictive, and they rank even higher in my roster rankings, which they lead, in part due to the fact that they are one of the healthiest teams in the league. They also have history on their side, as teams tend to bounce back in a big way after a big upset loss like the Eagles had last week (11-point favorites), with teams covering at a 57.7% rate after a loss as favorites of 10 points or more.

The Eagles’ loss last week moved this line from favoring the Eagles by 9.5 to favoring them by 6.5, a big swing, and one that was not justified, as my calculated line still has the Eagles favored by 9.5 points, even before taking into account that they’re in a great spot to bounce back after getting upset last week. The Colts pulled the upset in Las Vegas last week, but they still rank just 24th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 3.5 points below average, and I’m still skeptical of interim head coach Jeff Saturday long-term. The Colts could also be without starting right tackle Braden Smith after he tweaked his back in practice on Friday and my calculated line would increase if he didn’t play, as he’s arguably their best offensive lineman. There isn’t another game I like more than this one this week, so I’m locking in the Eagles at -6.5 as my Pick of the Week.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Indianapolis Colts 16

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (3-7) at Baltimore Ravens (6-3)

This line is pretty high, favoring the Ravens by 12.5, but I don’t think it’s high enough, as this is a matchup of among the best and among the worst teams in the league, with the better team, the Baltimore Ravens at home. The Ravens have three losses, but all came by four points or fewer and all came after blowing 4th quarter leads, with the Ravens leading the league in percentage of time leading per game. In terms of point differential, the Ravens rank 6th at +39 and in schedule adjusted efficiency they rank 3rd, about 7.5 points above average.

The Ravens have done that despite having several key players miss time with injury and now, coming out of their bye week, they are as healthy as they have been in weeks. Stud tight end Mark Andrews, top running back Gus Edwards, stud left tackle Ronnie Stanley, stud defensive lineman Calais Campbell, starting edge defenders Justin Houston and Tyus Bowser, and starting cornerback Marcus Peters have all missed time with injury thus far this season but have since returned and will play this week, for a Ravens team that ranks almost ten points above average in my roster rankings. They’re also in a good spot coming out of the bye, with Jim Harbaugh being 21-11 ATS with extra time to prepare in his career as Ravens’ head coach.

The Panthers, meanwhile, have played slightly better in recent weeks after a 1-5 start, but they are still just 3-7 and they go back to quarterback Baker Mayfield this week, losing PJ Walker due to injury, a key absence considering he has been their quarterback for their recent slight offensive improvement. Even with slightly better offensive play in recent weeks, the Panthers still rank 31st in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency across the season, about five points below average, leading three of the Panthers’ seven losses coming by 14 points or more and four of seven coming by at least 10 points. 

Carolina’s defense is what has kept them somewhat competitive in some games, ranking 14th in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency, but they’re not healthy right now, with starting interior defender Matt Ioanndis and starting cornerback Donte Jackson both out this week. They could get starting safety Jeremy Chinn back this week, but, if not, they’ll not only be without him, but they’ll likely be without the two players they have used most in his absence, Myles Hartsfield and Juston Burris, leaving them very thin at safety. 

Even if Chinn does play, he might not be 100% and the Panthers will still be at least four points below average in my roster rankings, fourteen points below the Ravens, giving us some line value with the Ravens as 12.5-point home favorites. This line is too big for the Ravens to be worth a big bet this week, but they are bettable at that number, even with Chinn’s possible return. I want to lock this in now because the line could increase to 13 or higher if Chinn is ruled out before gametime. This is likely to be a blowout victory for the Ravens either way.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Carolina Panthers 10

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -12.5

Confidence: Medium