Author: stevenlourie

Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions: 2022 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (1-2) at Detroit Lions (1-2)

This line has moved from favoring the Lions by 6 points on the early line last week to just 3.5 points this week, but I don’t think the line has moved enough, with the Lions losing feature back D’Andre Swift and #1 wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown to injury, while already missing starting guards Jonah Jackson and Halapoulivaati Vaitai. That will make it very difficult for this offense to function like it has been to start the season, which is a problem for a team with a defense that is still underwhelming at best. 

I actually have the Seahawks slightly ahead of the Lions in my roster rankings, so we’re getting good line value with them as 3.5 point underdogs. My calculated line has Detroit favored by two points and, while it might not seem like much, 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly three points, so getting the Seahawks at +3.5 is a big deal, especially since that is the number that covers the spread most often (53.0%). All in all, 1 in 4 games are decided by three points or fewer and the Seahawks have a good chance to keep this game close or even pull the outright upset. This isn’t a big play, but the Seahawks are worth betting this week.

Detroit Lions 30 Seattle Seahawks 28

Pick against the spread: Seattle +3.5

Confidence: Medium

Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots: 2022 Week 4 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (1-2) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)

The Patriots will play this game with backup quarterback Brian Hoyer under center instead of Mac Jones, which puts them at a distinct disadvantage, while the Packers have gotten back offensive linemen David Bakhtiari, Elgton Jenkins, and Jon Runyan and wide receivers Allen Lazard and Christian Watson, all of whom missed time early this season and have since returned, giving them a much better supporting cast around Aaron Rodgers. They didn’t score a lot in Tampa Bay last week, but they’re even healthier this week and the Buccaneers have one of the best defenses in the league, so it wasn’t that bad that the Packers didn’t perform that well offensively. Even with that game included, the Packers still rank a solid 11th in offensive efficiency on the season, despite all of their injuries. Led by that offense, the Packers rank 12th in overall efficiency, as opposed to the Patriots, who rank just 23rd, even with Mac Jones healthy.

With the Packers being the significantly healthier and better team team, they are favorites of 9.5 points in this game, which would be around the correct line, if not for the fact that the Packers have had an incredible homefield advantage in recent years, going 47-19 ATS in the regular season at home in games started and finished by Aaron Rodgers. Because of that, this line should be set even higher. There isn’t quite enough here for the Packers to be worth betting with this line already being so high, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Green Bay Packers 24 New England Patriots 13

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -9.5

Confidence: Low

Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans: 2022 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Chargers (1-2) at Houston Texans (0-2-1)

Going into the season, I expected the Chargers to be Super Bowl contenders, but they’ve gotten off to a slow start, sitting at 1-2, while ranking just 19th in schedule adjusted overall efficiency. A big part of the problem has been injuries and things aren’t getting better. Center Corey Linsley and cornerback JC Jackson are expected to return this week, but left tackle Rashawn Slater and edge defender Joey Bosa are now out, while wide receiver Keenan Allen will miss his third straight game. 

Those five aforementioned players are five of their most important and, on top of that, stud quarterback Justin Herbert may not be 100% as he deals with a rib injury. The Chargers are favored by 6 points here in Houston, but I think that’s a little too much, even against a Texans team that is one of the worst in the league. There’s not quite enough here for the Texans to be worth betting, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Los Angeles Chargers 24 Houston Texans 20

Pick against the spread: Houston +6

Confidence: Low

Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2022 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (2-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1)

I’ve mentioned this in the Buccaneers’ first three games, but Tom Brady led teams have been a strong bet as underdogs or favorites of less than three in his career, going 59-29 ATS in that spot, including 2-1 ATS this season. The one loss was last week against the Packers, but Tom Brady was missing wide receivers Mike Evans, Julio Jones, and Chris Godwin, as well as stud left tackle Donovan Smith. This week, Evans is set to return from a one-game suspension, while Jones, Godwin, and Smith are at least gametime decisions. 

Just Evans’ presence alone will be a big boost for this offense, but if all three of those players are active, the Buccaneers will be healthier than they’ve been since early in week one before Smith and Godwin went down. Their offense has struggled thus far this season, but their defense is the real deal, ranking third in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency and, if their offense can bounce back, which they easily can with Brady and a healthier supporting cast, the Buccaneers should still be considered among the top teams in the league.

Despite that, the Buccaneers are 1-point home underdogs here against the Chiefs. I do have the Chiefs a little higher in my roster rankings, but my calculated line is Tampa Bay -1.5, so we’re at least getting some line value with the Buccaneers, in addition to getting Brady in a spot where he’s been an almost automatic bet in his career. Brady has also been close to an automatic bet off of a loss in his career, going 36-11 ATS unless he’s favored by more than a touchdown. The Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes is also an elite quarterback, but he doesn’t have the same track record after a loss (6-7 ATS) and I would give the edge to Brady at home in this matchup, especially if any of the aforementioned gametime decisions play. Without a better option this week, the Buccaneers are my Pick of the Week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 Kansas City Chiefs 20

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +1

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens: 2022 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (2-1) at Baltimore Ravens (2-1)

The Bills lost last week in a close 2-point game in Miami, which has been a common theme for them in the past couple years. Since the start of last season, 7 of the 8 Bills’ losses, including playoffs, have come by one score or less, while all of their 14 wins over that span have all come by 12 points or more. The Bills finished the 2021 season ranked 1st in schedule adjusted efficiency and still lead the league in 2022, even after last week’s close loss. I would still consider them the Super Bowl favorites.

The Bills were also far from healthy in last week’s loss. While top cornerback Tre’Davious White and stud safety Micah Hyde remain out, the Bills could get back center Mitch Morse, safety Jordan Poyer, interior defender Ed Oliver, and cornerback Dane Jackson this week. If the Bills had even half of those players last week, they likely would have prevailed in Miami and, with at least some of those players expected to return this week, the Bills should be expected to prevail in Baltimore as well.

Unfortunately, the public still really likes the Bills, even after last week’s loss, so we’re not getting much line value with them as 3-point road favorites against a good Ravens team. I’m still taking the Bills for pick ‘em purposes, but this is a no confidence pick and I ultimately may end up flipping my pick to the Ravens depending on the final injury reports as, in addition to the aforementioned questionable players for the Bills, the Ravens could be set to get a key player back from injury in Ronnie Stanley. Either way this is likely to be a no confidence pick though.

Buffalo Bills 31 Baltimore Ravens 27

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -3

Confidence: None

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts: 2022 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (1-2) at Indianapolis Colts (1-1-1)

The Colts surprisingly got their first victory of the season last week in an upset win over the Chiefs, but the Chiefs missed a makeable field goal and extra point in the 3-point loss, so the Chiefs easily could have won, even though they lost the turnover battle. In terms of first down rate and yards per play, the Colts lost by 5.50% and 1.50 and those are much more predictive week-to-week than turnovers and opponents’ missed kicks. 

That win also puts the Colts in a tough spot this week, as teams tend to struggle off of big home upset wins, covering the spread at just a 41.5% rate all-time the week after a home win as underdogs of 5 points or more. Making matters even worse for the Colts, they have to play another game against the Broncos in four days and favorites cover at just a 42.9% rate before Thursday Night Football. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see the Colts overlook the 1-2 Titans a little bit in this spot.

That being said, I am not going to bet on the Titans this week because of all of their injuries. Already without talented left tackle Taylor Lewan and top edge defender Harold Landry for the season, the Titans will also be without top linebacker Zach Cunningham and talented starting safety Amani Hooker in this game, while the Colts could get back stud linebacker Shaq Leonard for the first time this season, which would be a huge re-addition.

I’m still taking the Titans because I think this line is fair, favoring the Colts by 3.5 points, a bigger line than you might think, given that 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer, and because the Colts are in such a bad spot. However, the only way I would bet on the Titans is if not only Leonard didn’t play for the Colts, but also stud interior defender DeForest Buckner, who is considered a gametime decision. If they’re both out and this line stays above three, I would probably bet on the Titans, but, unless that happens, this pick is for pick ‘em purposes only.

Indianapolis Colts 23 Tennessee Titans 20

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3.5

Confidence: Low

Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles: 2022 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-0)

Coming into the season, I expected the Eagles to be one of the best teams in the league, projecting them to win 12 games and tie for the best record in the NFC. The Eagles were coming off of a playoff appearance a season ago, finishing 9th in overall efficiency, and got significantly better on both sides of the ball this off-season due to additions like AJ Brown, Haason Reddick, and James Bradberry, which seemed likely to vault them into the top tier of the NFL. So far, that has been the case as the Eagles are the NFL’s last unbeaten team, while ranking 10th, 2nd, and 4th in offensive, defensive, and overall schedule adjusted efficiency. 

The Jaguars have also gotten out to an impressive start, sitting at 2-1 with a pair of multi-score wins and a schedule adjusted efficiency that ranks 6th in the NFL, but they’re still a couple points behind the Eagles in overall efficiency and I think they have much less staying power, with a roster that is not as good as their impressive to start to the season. While the Eagles are among the best teams in my roster rankings, the Jaguars rank nine points behind them as more of a middle of the road team. This line is decently high, favoring the Eagles by 6.5 at home, but, with the Eagles being one of the best teams in the league and the Jaguars being more middle of the road, I have the Eagles calculated as 10-point home favorites in this game, giving us good line value with them. This isn’t a big play, but the Eagles are worth betting in this game.

Philadelphia Eagles 30 Jacksonville Jaguars 20

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6.5

Confidence: Medium

Chicago Bears at New York Giants: 2022 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (2-1) at New York Giants (2-1)

Expected by many to be the worst team in the league, the Bears are a surprising 2-1, but if you look at how they are winning games, it’s not hard to see how they could still be the worst team in the league going forward. In both of their wins, the Bears have lost the first down rate and yards per play battle, by 0.41% and 1.30 against the 49ers and by 1.39% and 0.08 against the Texans, while their one loss to the Packers was not competitive, with the Bears losing the first down rate and yards per play battle by 10.85% and 0.71 respectively.

That loss to the Packers came by a bigger margin than their combined margin of victory in their two wins, leading to them having a -5 point differential on the season, despite a +1 turnover margin, making them one of just four teams with a negative point differential and a positive turnover margin (Steelers, Cardinals, Texans). Turnover margins are not nearly as predictive week-to-week as first downs and yards per play and, in terms of schedule adjusted overall efficiency, which is based on first downs and yards, the Bears rank dead last in the league, with well below average marks on offense (26th), defense (26th), and special teams (22nd).

The Giants also aren’t as good as their 2-1 record, but they looked like the significantly better of these two teams coming into the season and, even if they have been mediocre, they still have played better than the Bears have thus far this season. They have a 4 point edge in my roster rankings, so they are the significantly better team overall. Despite that, they are favored by just a field goal here at home, so we’re getting good line value with them, with my calculated line favoring them by 6 points. This isn’t a big play, but the Giants are bettable at -3.

New York Giants 23 Chicago Bears 17

Pick against the spread: NY Giants -3

Confidence: Medium

Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons: 2022 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (2-1) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2)

The Falcons were expected to be one of the worst teams in the league this season and they may still end up there, but they have exceeded expectations through the first three games of the season, particularly on offense, where they rank 2nd in first down rate and 7th in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency, which are among the most predictive stats week-to-week. I don’t expect them to be that good all season, but they should have a favorable matchup this week against a Browns defense that ranks 18th in both yards per play allowed and first down rate allowed, despite playing well below average offenses in all three games thus far this season. 

When adjusted for schedule, the Browns rank just 31st in defensive efficiency and it’s possible the Falcons, even if they ultimately end up being a mediocre offense, are still the toughest offense the Browns have faced thus far these season by default, having played the Panthers (32nd in offensive efficiency), Jets (31st), and Steelers (27th) in the first three weeks of the season. Making matters worse, the Browns will be without a pair of key defenders Jadeveon Clowney and Anthony Walker and could be without their most important defender, Myles Garrett, who didn’t practice all week after a car accident.

The Browns should move the ball pretty well in this game though, entering this game ranked 6th in first down rate and 3rd in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency against a Falcons defense that is mediocre at best. The Browns are on the road, but my roster rankings have them about three points better than the Falcons, even without their key defenders, so this line favoring the Browns by a point is about right. I’m taking the Falcons for now, but if Garrett ends up playing and this line doesn’t move drastically, I will probably change my pick. This is a really close one and Garrett’s presence, even at less than 100%, would be huge for the Browns’ defense.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Cleveland Browns 26

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +1

Confidence: None

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers: 2022 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (1-2) at Carolina Panthers (1-2)

A week ago on the early line, the Cardinals were favored by a field goal on the road in this game in Carolina. At that number, I would have liked the Panthers a lot. The Cardinals were at the top of my overrated list coming into the season. They went 11-6 last season, but needed a +12 turnover margin to get to that record, which is not predictive, and they ranked just 14th in overall efficiency, barely above average.

They also got a lot worse this off-season, losing starting wide receiver Christian Kirk, top edge defender Chandler Jones, top off ball linebacker Jordan Hicks, top cornerback Robert Alford, and their most efficient running back Chase Edmonds, with their only major addition being former Ravens wide receiver Marquise Brown, who cost the Cardinals their first round pick in a trade and who isn’t a significant upgrade on Christian Kirk. They’ll also be without top wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins for the first six games of the season due to a suspension.

As field goal road favorites on the early line, the Cardinals were clearly overrated a week ago, but we’ve lost a lot of value in the past week, with this line dropping down to even. It’s not necessarily that the Cardinals’ aren’t overrated still, but the Panthers may be as well, after picking up their first win of the season last week against the Saints in a game in which they primarily won because of a return touchdown and a +3 turnover margin, losing the first down rate battle by 8.89% and the yards per play battle by 1.69, which are much more predictive week-to-week than turnovers.

In terms of overall efficiency, which are based on first downs and yards per play, the Panthers rank just 26th on the season, which isn’t too far behind the 22nd ranked Cardinals, but I still have about two points between these two teams in my roster rankings, so we aren’t getting much line value with the Panthers on an even line. I’m still taking the Panthers for pick ‘em purposes, in part because the Cardinals could overlook them with a much tougher game against the Eagles on deck, but there isn’t nearly enough here for the Panthers to be worth betting.

Carolina Panthers 17 Arizona Cardinals 16

Pick against the spread: Carolina PK

Confidence: Low