2012 NFL Picks

Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers: Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 9 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Packers

Arizona Cardinals (4-4) at Green Bay Packers (5-3)

This is what I said about the Cardinals after their 3-0 start. “Almost every year, there’s a team that gets off to a good start and then fades away and misses the playoffs and makes their believers look dumb (“This Ryan Fitzpatrick is the real deal.” “Rex Grossman is a legitimate franchise quarterback.”).Winning 3 in a row at any point in a season isn’t that impressive, but when teams do it to start the season, it’s much more noticeable and you get idiots like Michael Silver putting them first in his Power Rankings (Really? Kevin Kolb is going to win the Super Bowl?). This is essentially the same team that finished last year 8-8 and I expect them to finish somewhere around there this year. Bettors should ride the correction.” They haven’t covered since and have lost 4 straight.

Now with Kolb out, John Skelton is actually a downgrade, believe it or not, despite their records last season. Skelton was 6-2 in the 8 games he played the majority of the snaps, while Kolb was 2-6, but Skelton had the luxury of playing most of his games supported by better defensive play. In Skelton’s 8 games, the Cardinals allowed 19.0 points per game and in Kolb’s they allowed 24.5. Skelton was actually the inferior of the two quarterbacks last season. He led 100 drives last season and the Cardinals scored 16 touchdowns and 11 field goals (129 points, 1.29 points per drive) on those 100 drives. Kolb led 91 drives, leading to 20 touchdowns and 6 field goals (138 points, 1.52 points per drive).

Kolb also outplayed him statistically. He completed 146 of 253 (57.7%) for 1955 yards (7.7 YPA), 9 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. Skelton completed just 151 for 275 (54.9%) for 1913 yards (7.0 YPA), 11 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. This year, Skelton is completing 57.9% of his passes for 5.9 YPA, 1 touchdown, and 4 interceptions, while Kolb is completing 59.6% of his passes for an average of 6.4 YPA, 8 touchdowns, 3 interceptions. Until Kolb returns, this team is really going to struggle. Meanwhile, the offensive line is one of the worst I’ve ever seen and it might be the worst ever. They’re on pace to allow 89 sacks, which would shatter the NFL record of 76 set by the Texans in 2002. They’re still a good team to bet against going forward. Teams are 13-20 ATS off of 5 straight ATS losses as 10+ dogs.

Now they’re in a bad spot coming off a 17+ point loss on Monday Night Football. Teams are 22-37 ATS off a Monday Night Football loss of 17 or more. 5 days is just not enough time to bounce back mentally from a devastating loss and it’s not enough time to fix the problems. Meanwhile, the Packers are touchdown plus home favorites before a bye. Teams are 35-12 ATS in this spot since 2002, winning, on average, by 16.4 points per game. Good teams tend to be extra focused heading into a bye.

We are getting line value with the Cardinals, however. The yards per play differential method gives us a real line of Green Bay -7 and the rate of sustaining drives method gives us a real line of Green Bay -6.5. And its not because the Cardinals grade out well in those two statistics, ranking 24th and 18th respectively. It’s the Packers. They’re not the same team they were last year. They don’t run the ball well at all. Their offensive line isn’t good. They miss Greg Jennings and several other injured contributors. And they don’t consistently win the turnover battle anymore. They rank just 11th and 10th in those statistics respectively.

However, I still like the Packers. The Cardinals are heading in the wrong direction and are starting a truly inferior backup quarterback, while the Packers have some momentum. That slowed last week against Jacksonville, but they are expected to get Jordy Nelson back, which will help. The Packers are still good enough for the touchdown plus favorites after a bye trend to be in play. I hate laying this many points, especially on a public lean, and not getting line value, but the Packers should be the right side.

Public lean: Green Bay (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Arizona covers)

Sharps lean: ARZ 9 GB 2

Final update: I’m dropping down to 1 unit for 3 reasons. The first one is that the Packers may hold Jordy Nelson out another week, with an easy opponent this week and a bye next week. The second one is that, while 7+ home favorites tend to cover at a high rate going into a bye, 10+ home favorites are just 11-7 ATS (home favorites of between 7 of 10 are 24-5 ATS before a bye). It seems good teams tend to cover going into a bye, so long as they don’t have to cover a massive spread. The third reason is that the sharps like Arizona. Green Bay should still be the right side, but I’m not really confident and I hate laying this many points.

Green Bay Packers 27 Arizona Cardinals 12

Pick against spread: Green Bay -11 (-110) 1 unit

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Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals: Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 9 NFL Picks, Bengals, Broncos

Denver Broncos (4-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-4)

The Broncos rank 2nd in the league in yards per play differential at 1.4, just .1 behind San Francisco, who has looked untouchable for weeks in that category. No one else is above 0.7. They rank just 9th in rate of sustaining drives differential, thanks to a 3rd down defense that’s 20th. However, they were much better in this area against the Saints in a complete, shut down victory. New Orleans went just 1 of 12 on 3rd down.

The Broncos rank 6th in the league against both the pass and the run on a per play basis and Peyton Manning is playing like vintage Peyton Manning right now, if not better, as he’s completed 107 of 142 for 1289 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 1 interception in his last 4 games. On the season, he’s completing 68.5% of his passes for an average of 8.2 YPA, 17 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, all ahead of career averages. And they’re doing this all against the league’s toughest schedule so far, in terms of opponent’s winning percentage.

The Bengals, meanwhile, have yet to beat a playoff team in the Andy Dalton era, unless Washington, Cleveland, or Jacksonville make the playoffs this year (I’m going to go with no). They lost to 8 such teams last year and probably 1 or 2 this year (Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Miami). Besides, I’m not even sure they’re as good as they were last year. Last year, they were 9-0 against non-playoff teams. This year, they lost to Cleveland and Miami (though Miami might end up being a playoff team).

Every year, one team goes from the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer. As the league’s worst playoff team last year, the Bengals were my preseason favorite to be that team. Now they stand at 3-4, after a 3-1 start, and they play possible playoff teams in 7 of their final 9 games, including here. This is the exact type of team Andy Dalton has trouble with. He completed 55.6% of his passes for an average of 6.5 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions in those 8 games against playoff teams last year.

Against Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Miami, he is a combined 62 of 108 for 560 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions this year. Jay Gruden’s scheme can mask his deficiencies well against average or worse teams, but scheme alone won’t do it against good defenses. The Broncos defense just made Drew Brees struggle, so I don’t think they’ll have much trouble with Dalton this week.

I mentioned where the Broncos stand in yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives differential, the Bengals rank 12th and 25th in those two statistics respectively. Like the Broncos, they rank significantly better in yards per play differential. However, the yards per play differential method gives us a “real” line of -5.5, while the rate of sustaining drives method gives us a “real” line of -2.5. This line is right where it’s supposed to be, right in the middle at -4, if you don’t consider that the Broncos have all the momentum, which they do. I don’t have any trends for either side, but I don’t expect Dalton to beat his first playoff team this week. It’d be a bigger play if the public wasn’t pounding Denver.

Public lean: Denver (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Cincinnati covers)

Sharps lean: DEN 12 CIN 8

Final Update: No change.

Denver Broncos 27 Cincinnati Bengals 16

Pick against spread: Denver -4 (-110) 2 units

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Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons: Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 9 NFL Picks, Falcons

Dallas Cowboys (3-4) at Atlanta Falcons (7-0)

The Falcons are great at home, they’re undefeated, and the Cowboys are a laughing stock. How do they not win by 4 right? Well, as is often the case in betting, when something is too good to be true, it generally is. I think that’s the case here, especially since the line opened at -5 and has dropped despite heavy action on Atlanta.

While Atlanta is 7-0, I’m still not sold on them. 4 of their 7 wins have come by a touchdown or less. They’ve been very reliant on winning the turnover margin, which is inconsistent on a week to week basis. They rank just 19th in yards per play differential and 4th in rate of sustaining drives differential. And they haven’t really played anyone of note, except Denver, and that was not the same Broncos team they are now because Peyton Manning hadn’t gotten going yet. Besides, they go into this game without top linebacker Sean Weatherspoon. Spoon isn’t someone a lot of people know about, but he’s one of the best linebackers in the league and a huge loss for the Falcons.

Dallas, meanwhile, is seen as the laughing stock of the league, but they rank 8th in yards per play differential and 7th in rate of sustaining drives differential. The biggest issue, by far, has been turnover differential so far for them, as they have a turnover differential of -11, 2nd worst in the NFL. The good news is that turnover differentials are incredibly inconsistent, as I said before. Going off that, teams that lose despite throwing for 400 yards are 13-7 ATS in their next game as dogs.

Tony Romo, specifically, has an interception rate of 4.6% this year. Despite his reputation as a turnover machine, his interception rate was only 2.8% coming into the season. In fact, the 13 interceptions he has this year is the most he’s had in a season since 2008, and it’s been 7 games. That will regress to the mean going forward. I’m actually impressed they were able to keep it so close with the Giants despite losing the turnover battle by 4. Their defense is much improved over last season thanks to all the resources they put into it.

We can use the yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives differential to calculate real line. According to the rate of sustaining drives method, this line should be -4.5 and according to yards per play differential, this line should be a pick em. All of a sudden, this 4 point line doesn’t seem so ridiculous any more. It has all the ingredients of being a “too good to be true” trap line. Atlanta isn’t as good as their record. Dallas isn’t as bad. Atlanta is missing a key player. The already suspiciously low line is dropping despite heavy public action on Atlanta.

Speaking of too good to be true lines, Atlanta’s games seem to frequently have those. They’ve been -7.5 for Carolina, -9 for Oakland, +2.5 in Philadelphia, -3 in Washington, etc. That’s not done on purpose. The odds makers know they’re overrated. As good as they are at home (15-6 ATS as non-divisional favorites), they’ve still almost lost to home to Oakland and Carolina. If they can keep it close with the Falcons in Atlanta, so can Dallas.

Teams almost never go undefeated over the course of a season for a reason. It’s so easy to lose a game you’re supposed to win. Green Bay lost to Kansas City last year. Atlanta can lose to Dallas here. It’s not ridiculous. Besides, this game means so much more to Dallas, who is fighting for their playoff lives and playing for respect. Teams are 124-78 ATS off a loss by a touchdown or fewer as divisional home dogs since 1989.

Atlanta, meanwhile, is already 4 games up in their division. They won their respect game last week as dogs. They won’t care as much about this one. Week 5 or later, undefeated teams are 4-8 ATS as favorites off a win as dogs, 1-8 ATS in non-divisional contests.  Yes, this game is on Sunday Night Football, but the Falcons probably won’t care. They’ve already had a National TV game. Besides, the Texans didn’t seem to care about being on National TV when they lost to the Packers on Sunday Night a few weeks ago. Even if the Falcons win, I think it’ll be another close win for them and another heartbreaking loss for the Cowboys, so I like getting more than a field goal with the Cowboys.

Public lean: Atlanta (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Dallas covers)

Sharps lean: DAL 28 ATL 1

Final update: This is amazing. Of the 44 sharps in my sample size (those with records of 24-15 or better in LV Hilton), 28 of them are taking the Cowboys this week as one of their top 5 picks, while only one is taking Atlanta. I haven’t seen anything like this before. I’m putting an extra unit on the Cowboys and making this my pick of the week.

Dallas Cowboys 24 Atlanta Falcons 20 Upset Pick +175

Pick against spread: Dallas +4 (-110) 5 units

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Oakland Raiders: Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 9 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Raiders

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4) at Oakland Raiders (3-4)

After unimpressive wins over the Jaguars and Chiefs, the Raiders now sit at 3-4 and are somehow in the AFC playoff mix. However, they still aren’t very good. They have a point differential of -42. They got blown out in Oakland and in Miami and they weren’t impressive in either of their last 2 wins against crappy teams. They beat the Steelers in Oakland, but the Titans beat them in Tennessee. They also lost at home to San Diego and while they played the Falcons tough in Atlanta, so did the Panthers.

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are at 3-4 as well, but they come from a tougher conference (the NFC is 20-12 against the AFC) and they’ve had more impressive wins. They also have a +31 points differential and they have yet to lose by more than a touchdown all year. Josh Freeman is 82 of 143 (57.3%) for 1309 yards (9.2 YPA), 10 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions in his last 4 games.

He’s a natural deep ball thrower who was afraid to throw deep last season, throwing longer than 20 yards through the air on just 6.5% of his throws, by far least in the league, despite being accurate of 52.8% of them, 3rd best in the NFL. This year, thanks to new found chemistry with free agent acquisition Vincent Jackson, he is going deep 6th most in the league, 13.5% and, more importantly, has the 3rd highest accuracy percentage, 56.7%, completing 16 of 30 for 669 yards and 3 touchdowns, with 1 drop. I believe this is here to stay.

In spite of this, Oakland is favorites here, even if only by 1 point. The yards per play method actually suggests they should be 5.5 point favorites, but the rate of sustaining drives method suggests this should be a pick em. Tampa Bay has the momentum right now, so I don’t think there’s line value either way. Tampa Bay is also in a good spot as dogs before being favorites. Teams are 86-49 ATS in this spot since 2011. They host San Diego next week.

Meanwhile, Oakland is in a bunch of bad spots here as favorites. Bad teams in general struggle as favorites and I think they are a bad team. Demonstrating this, the Raiders are actually 9-27 ATS as favorites since 2003, going back to the year after their last winning season. Furthermore, home favorites are 146-225 ATS before being dogs in 3+ straight since 1989, which makes sense since those teams to be bad teams. Oakland’s next 3 games send them to Baltimore, home for New Orleans, and to Cincinnati.

Speaking of that Baltimore game, they could be 10 point dogs there. Teams are 25-48 ATS as favorites before being 10+ dogs since 2002. Again, bad teams are bad as favorites. When they are coming off another game in which they were dogs, that record is 17-34 ATS. This goes well with the sandwich game trend. Favorites are 81-117 ATS before and after being dogs since 2008.

Teams are also just 2-10 ATS as favorites before being 10+ dogs after a win as dogs since 2002. That expands to 8-21 ATS since 1989. They could also be just 7+ dogs next week, but it wouldn’t make much difference. Since 1989, teams are 29-57 ATS as favorites after being dogs before being 7+ dogs, 13-31 ATS after a win as dogs.

These are all variations of the sandwich game trend and they demonstrate the fact that bad teams struggle as favorites. We’re getting points with the better team here, I believe. All of the trends are against Oakland. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is rested off Thursday Night football. Teams are 114-93 ATS on Sunday Night after Thursday Night. They’re also in their 2nd straight road game. This tends to be a good spot. Teams are 191-138 ATS in their 2nd straight road game since 2008, including 94-61 ATS in their 2nd straight as road dogs and 30-19 ATS off a win as road dogs. It’s strongest with road dogs off a road loss, but there’s a trend in this situation here too.

This would be a bigger pick if we were getting line value. This line shifted 2 points in the last week because of Tampa Bay’s strong showing on Thursday Night Football and Tampa Bay is a public dog this week. However, I still like the Buccaneers. Instead of putting 3 units on the spread and 1 on the money line, I’m putting all 4 on the money line. It’s not worth the extra 15 cents to get protection from a one point loss.

Public lean: Tampa Bay (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Oakland covers)

Sharps lean: TB 14 OAK 4

Final update: Another sharps lean lining up with one of my big picks. Good to see. I think I’ll add a unit. I feel really good about this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 Oakland Raiders 20 Upset Pick +105 5 units

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +1 (-110) 0 units

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Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns: Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 9 NFL Picks, Browns, Ravens

Baltimore Ravens (5-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-6)

Road favorites are 42-15 ATS off a bye. That makes sense. Road favorites tend to be very good teams and very good teams tend to be extra focused with a week off. The Browns kind of got screwed over by the schedulers because they have two straight games at home as dogs against a team coming off a bye. Last week, they hosted the Chargers and were 3 point home dogs. However, the Chargers didn’t deserve to be road favorites, especially against the underrated Browns, who are now 4-3-1 ATS on the year. As a result, the Browns were able to pull off a “surprising” upset.

This week, however, they face a Ravens team that does deserve to be road favorites and divisional road favorites off a bye are 20-3 ATS since 2002. They certainly didn’t look like it before the bye in a 43-13 loss to the Texans. Because that loss came immediately after the game in which they lost Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb for the season, a lot of people assume that they’re going to play like that going forward. However, the defense is not at fault. Yes, they allowed 420 total yards, but before they lost Lewis and Webb, they were already allowing 396.7 yards per game and they were 5-1.

The reason they were 5-1 despite poor defensive play was their offense, which was averaging 385 yards per play going into that Houston game. Against Houston, they managed just 176 yards of offense. Joe Flacco did what Joe Flacco does on occasion and had a terrible game. He went 21 of 43 for 147 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions.

However, as inconsistent as Flacco is, he always bounces back. He has won his last 14 straight games off a loss. He’s 5-1 ATS off a loss of 10+. He’s also 3-1 ATS off a game in which he threw more than 20 incompletions. He should have a bounce back game against a much easier Cleveland defense, especially off a bye. He’s 4-0 ATS off a bye.  The defense won’t play well, but they weren’t playing well before the injuries either and they still went 5-1.

Contrary to popular belief, they have yet to miss Lardarius Webb or Ray Lewis. Besides, as much as the Ravens struggle outside the division as road favorites, they’re 5-2 ATS in the division in the Joe Flacco era. On top of that, teams are 30-16 ATS before being 10+ point favorites since 2011. Teams tend to be extra focused in this spot. The Ravens host Oakland next week. Meanwhile, the Browns are in a bad spot as home dogs off of a close home upset (1-3 points). Teams are 21-34 ATS in this spot since 2002.

We are getting some line value with the Browns as the yards per play method says this line should be -2.5 in favor of Baltimore and the rate of sustaining drives method says this should be a pick em. However, that Houston game where they lost the yards per play battle 5.5 to 3.0 and the first down battle 27 to 12 skewed both of those statistics. They should be able to bounce back and the trends are in their favor.

Besides, in the AFC North, the Browns and Bengals have always had trouble against the Ravens and Steelers. The Bengals and the Browns are a combined 22-63 against the Ravens and Steelers since 2002, when the divisions were realigned. Specifically, the Browns are 5-16 against the Ravens. They’ve dropped their last 9 against them and they are 3-6 ATS in those 9 games. I don’t think they’re good enough to beat the Ravens yet.

This would be a bigger play on the Ravens, but there are two things stopping me. The first is just that I’d be more comfortable with the Ravens if the line was -3 or lower. I’m confident the Ravens will win, but they’ve had some close calls this year (wins by 31, 1, 7, 3, and 2), so I’d be more confident if they had field goal protection.

The 2nd reason is that the public is heavily betting on Baltimore. I was hoping that wouldn’t be the case after their fluky blowout loss to the Texans, but it is. I hate betting on heavy public leans. It is good to see, however, that the line is climbing along with the heavy public lean, so there’s no danger of this being a trap line. The Ravens should be the right side though, so it’s a significant lean. That 20-3 ATS trend is hard to go against.

Public lean: Baltimore (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Cleveland covers)

Sharps lean: BAL 15 CLE 6

Final update: Of my 6 big plays this week, 5 of them lined up with heavy sharps leans. I feel really good about this week. However, I’m staying put at just 3 here. I really wish we had field goal protection with the Ravens though.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Cleveland Browns 20

Pick against spread: Baltimore -3.5 (-110) 3 units

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Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers: Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 9 NFL Picks, Chargers, Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs (1-6) at San Diego Chargers (3-4)

Side note: It’s week 9 already?!?!? What?!?!?!?

On Thursday Night, the rule of thumb is to take the home team, assuming they’re favorites, as home favorites are 45-27 ATS on Thursday Nights. This makes sense. The home team not only doesn’t have to travel on a short week, meaning they get more valuable time to practice, game plan, and rest, but they’re also typically a more veteran, experienced team who won’t be fazed by playing on short rest. This trend didn’t work last week as Minnesota lost as home favorites to the Buccaneers, but there’s a simple explanation for that and it’s just that Minnesota is not a veteran, experienced team, despite being favorites, which is why it wasn’t a big play on the hosts.

San Diego is the more veteran, experienced team here and playing at home, but they’re also divisional home favorites. Divisional home favorites are just 17-16 ATS on Thursday Nights. This makes sense. Having familiarity with a team, like the Chiefs do with division rival San Diego, nullifies some of the effects of being a young, inexperienced team on the road on a short week. Besides, while the Chargers are technically a veteran, experienced team, you can’t really say they won’t be fazed by playing on a short week. I’m not sure there’s anything that you can say won’t faze them considering how horribly coached they are.

Philip Rivers has a strong career record off a loss as favorites, going 14-9 ATS in this situation in his career, including 12-6 ATS when favored again. This makes sense because good quarterbacks always tend to bounce back after disappointing losses. However, I’m not sure this is the same Philip Rivers anymore. I thought his high turnover rate from 2011 was an outlier and that he’d bounce back, especially since he played so much better in the 2nd half of last season (14 interceptions in games 1-8 and 6 in games 9-16). After all, Eli Manning threw 25 picks in 2010 and he didn’t have such a bad 2011.

However, Rivers’ struggles seem to have carried over into this season. Not only has his turnover rate remained the same, but his YPA of 6.8 YPA is a career low and down over a whole yard per play from his “disappointing 2011.” He doesn’t look like the same player as he was from 2006-2010. Some of the blame falls on his supporting cast. The Chargers have 10 draft picks in the first 3 rounds in the last 3 years and only 2 of them have been used on offensive players, including one, Vincent Brown, who is currently out with an injury (the other is Ryan Mathews). At the same time, no late round picks from those 3 drafts have stepped up and become starters offensively.

Meanwhile, they’ve let key offensive players like Vincent Jackson and Darren Sproles walk out the door without replacing them and key cogs in this offense from Rivers’ heyday like Marcus McNeill, Kris Dielman, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Antonio Gates are either retired or not playing at nearly the same level, without being properly replaced. Some of the blame can fall on Rivers himself. In his age 31 season, he doesn’t seem to be the same player, for whatever reason. Either way, I don’t see his season turning around this week, especially off 3 days rest.

For the Chiefs, they have a different kind of quarterback issue, namely that all of theirs suck. However, the lesser of two terrible quarterbacks is starting this week as Brady Quinn suffered a concussion, meaning Matt Cassel will make this start on short rest. I thought the decision to start Quinn was a mistake (unless the goal was to secure the #1 overall pick).

Cassel was turning the ball over at an incredible rate, but that was bound to regress to the mean eventually. Right now, he has a interception rate of 4.9%, almost double his career rate of 2.5% (not including this season). Meanwhile, they have a turnover differential of -18. That won’t continue. Not only are they on pace to shatter the record of -30 (they’re on pace for -41), a record that’s stood since 1965, turnovers differential is also inconsistent on a week to week basis, as seen here.  Even if they break that record and finish with say a turnover differential of -31, that’s an average of -1.4 per game the rest of the way, which is barely half as bad as what they’ve done through 7 games (-2.6 per game).

Cassel also offers a career YPA that was over a yard per play better than Quinn’s. Even last week in relief against the Raiders, he looked much better than Quinn ever did in his limited action. Before Cassel went down, this team ranked better in yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drive differential than they do now. With Cassel back under center, that should improve and unless he continues to throw interceptions at a rate almost double his career rate and the Chiefs continue to lose the turnover battle at a record pace, they’ll look improved with Cassel under center. They won’t be good or anything, but they should be able to hang with a Charger team that isn’t very good either.

Even at their current yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives, we are getting line value with the Chiefs at +7.5. The rate of sustaining drives method gives us a calculated “real” line of +7 and the yards per play method gives us a calculated “real” line of +6.5 and that’s including some of Brady Quinn’s playing time. Again, they won’t be good with Matt Cassel under center, but the Chargers aren’t very good either and as long as Cassel is starting, the Chargers don’t deserve to be more than touchdown favorites over them.

The trends also say Kansas City is the right spot. Divisional home favorites like the Chargers are 10-27 ATS off a loss as non-divisional road favorites since 2002. The Chargers lost to the Browns in Cleveland last week. Meanwhile, teams with 1 win or fewer like the Chiefs are 77-42 ATS as divisional dogs after week 8 since 1989. I think the reason for this is twofold. One, these tend to be huge respect games for the bad team. Two, they have an advantage in a divisional game that they wouldn’t have in any other game because it’s a divisional opponent that they know, so they’re undervalued based purely off their record.

I hate betting on a team like the Chiefs, especially as dogs on a Thursday Night, but I like the Chiefs to keep this close for a small play. Unfortunately, San Diego is also my survivor pick this week on a bad week for survivor. Everyone in my top-14 in my Power Rankings has either already been picked or is playing another top-14 team, except Denver who travels to Cincinnati. It was close between the Broncos and Chargers for survivor this week, but I hate picking road teams. San Diego is #15 and Kansas City is #31, so I like the Chargers to win, though I think the Chiefs will cover the 7.5 point spread. Also, I like the under as the under is 70-52 on Thursday Nights.

Public lean: San Diego (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Kansas City covers)

San Diego Chargers 17 Kansas City Chiefs 13 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI, GB)

Pick against spread: Kansas City +7.5 (-110) 2 units

Total: Under 41.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Week 8 NFL Picks Results

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 9 NFL Picks

Week 8 Results

ATS: 7-7 -1 unit/-$270

SU: 11-3

Upset Picks: 3-0 +490

Over/Under: 1-1 -10

Total: +$210

Public Results ATS*: 6-8 -1 unit

2012 results to date

ATS: 57-56-5 +10 units/-$395

SU: 74-44

Upset Picks: 22-21 +$1540

Over/Under: 5-2-1 +280

Parlays: 1-0 +100

Total: +1535

Survivor: 6-2 (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI, GB)

Public Results ATS*: 51-65-2 -31 units

*I’m doing this to see how the general public does. Based on percent of bets on each team, if the more popularly bet team covers, it’s a public win, if not, it’s a public loss. If a team that has 50-59% of the action on it covers, the public gets “one unit,” if they don’t cover, they lose one unit, 60-69% is 2, 70-79% is 3, etc.

 

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 8 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Jets

Miami Dolphins (3-3) at New York Jets (3-4)

The Jets beat the Dolphins in Miami earlier this year, therefore they should beat them in New York right? Well, that seems to be what the public thinks as the Jets are a heavily public lean, but I disagree for several reasons. The first one is that Darrelle Revis went down late in that game. The Jets have done a great job of bouncing back from that loss and their subsequent 34-0 home loss to the 49ers the following week and have covered in 3 straight.

Antonio Cromartie is playing out of his mind right now since Revis went down, allowing 7 catches for 109 yards on 22 attempts, with 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions, and 4 pass deflections. The defensive and offensive fronts are playing like they have before, allowing the team’s run offense and run defense to improve. However, that doesn’t mean they won’t miss Revis, especially against a Dolphin team that hasn’t been playing too badly themselves since that game, going 2-1 SU and ATS with that one loss in overtime to the Cardinals and wins against the Bengals in Cincinnati and the Rams in Miami.

Besides, the Dolphins are in a good spot given that their previous matchup was an overtime loss. Teams are 14-8 ATS when trying to avenge a divisional overtime loss since 2008. They’re also 49-31 ATS trying to avenge a divisional loss of 1-3 points in that same period, including 27-16 ATS when the revenge game is a same season game.

On the other side, the Jets are in a bad spot. Favorites after a loss of 1-3 as 10+ dogs are 6-14 ATS since 1989. They’ll be awfully flat after coming so close to pulling a huge upset against a division rival. Meanwhile, home favorites are 10-23 ATS off a road loss in overtime, including 6-16 ATS when the previous overtime loss was as dogs.

We’re also getting line value with the Dolphins. Both measures of “real” line suggest this should be a pick em as Miami ranks 18th in yards per play differential and 17th in rate of sustaining drives differential, while the Jets rank 27th in both. We’re getting points with the better team in the better spot. We’re also getting a chance to fade a heavy public lean as the public likes the Jets. I’ve mentioned many times before I like favorites this week because I expect the favorite/dog disparity to close up (dogs are 63-39 ATS and neither dogs nor favorites have finished more than 10 games above .500 ATS in least at the last decade). However, it’s perfectly fine to make a big play on a dog as long as they aren’t a heavy public dog.

Public lean: NY Jets (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Miami covers)

Sharps lean: MIA 22 NYJ 6

Final update: 2nd biggest sharps lean of the week. I’m going to add a unit. Action on Jets, but line has fallen.

Miami Dolphins 20 New York Jets 13 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: Miami +2.5 (-110) 4 units

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Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears: Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 8 NFL Picks, Bears, Panthers

Carolina Panthers (1-5) at Chicago Bears (5-1)

I normally hate laying more than a touchdown, but I like the Bears this week for several reasons. The first reason is simply that I think they’re the best team in the league in this wide open NFL (the undefeated Falcons have played a cupcake schedule and won their last 3 by a combined 12). The Bears sit at 5-1 and their only loss was in Green Bay on Thursday Night. I’m not saying don’t count that game, but you shouldn’t put too much stock into a team playing poorly on the road against a good team in short rest when they’ve played very well the rest of the time, especially when they lost running back Matt Forte early in the game.

Other than that, they’re 5-0 on the season and with the exception of last week’s game against the Lions, they’ve won all 5 games by 16 or more. Even last week’s 13-7 win over the Lions was way more lopsided than the final score indicated as they held a shutout and a 13 point lead with about 30 seconds to go before Detroit got a late garbage time touchdown.

With that exception of back door cover and the Green Bay game, they’ve covered every game this season and they would have covered this 7.5 point spread on every game as well. And they’re not playing bad teams either, with the exception of Jacksonville. St. Louis and Indianapolis look like more impressive blowouts now than when they happened. Dallas is a playoff contender and they lost by 16 at home  (24 until a garbage time score). Detroit isn’t terrible. Carolina is probably the 2nd worst team they’ve played this year.

Dating back to last year, Jay Cutler is actually 10-1 in his last 11, with that one loss being the Green Bay loss, further proof of how fluky that loss was. Those 5 straight wins he had last season before getting hurt came by margins of 29, 6, 6, 24, and 11 and the Bears covered in all 5. Dating back to 2010, Jay Cutler is 23-10 straight up over the last 2 and a half years, including playoffs. This year, they’re even better because of the addition of Brandon Marshall.

Because the Bears are the best team in the league, in my opinion, I feel we’re getting line value with them and the usual metrics of measuring “real” line agree, which is the 2nd reason I like the Bears this week. The yards per play method says this line should be only -3 in favor of Chicago because these two teams actually have the same yards per play differential (3 points for home field advantage). This isn’t because Chicago is bad in that statistic. In fact, they rank tied for 7th. However, Carolina is particularly good in that statistic.

Carolina is one of the reasons I decided to create a complimentary statistic known as rate of sustaining drives to use along with yards per play to determine “real” line. Yards per play overrates teams that get a lot of big plays, but struggle to stay on the field or don’t allow a lot of big plays, but struggle to get off the field defensively. Those are the exact same teams rate of sustaining drives underrates because what rate of sustaining drives cares about is how often you convert a given set of downs for a first down or a score in comparison to how often your defense allows the opponent to do so. Because of this, they work in tandem well together.

Sure enough, Carolina is really bad in this statistic, ranking 31st, while Chicago is around where they are in yards per play differential, ranking 4th. The “real” line calculated using this metric says Chicago should be -17. Again, neither one of these metrics alone is right, especially with that kind of difference, but we can use them together to get a much better estimate of “real” line. In this case, Chicago should be around -10 and that’s counting all of Chicago’s games equally, which I don’t think is the case because I feel the Green Bay game was fluky. We’re getting line value with the Bears.

The 3rd reason is all of Carolina’s injuries. Already a struggling team, Carolina will be without Ryan Kalil, Jon Beason, and Chris Gamble for this game and likely without all 3 for the season. That’s a huge loss. Ryan Kalil is not their best offensive lineman because of left tackle Jordan Gross, but he’s easily a top-3 center in the league. Beason is not the player he was 2 years ago, but his absence still hurts because it means up and down rookie Luke Kuechly will have to become an every down player and Thomas Davis will have to become a starter. Davis has had 3 torn ACLs as a pro, so it’s unclear if his knees can handle that. Meanwhile, Gamble is not only their best defensive back, but he’s also their only good defensive back and, when healthy, one of the better and more underrated cornerbacks in the league.

The 4th reason is that Carolina could be really flat this week. They had very high hopes for this season, only to start 1-4. They put everything into last week against the Cowboys off a bye and still lost a close one at home. Now their season is effectively over. Cam Newton’s body language looked really bad in his press conference and GM Marty Hurney has been fired. They’re missing key players. This game means nothing to them anymore and they could be really flat and just get blown out by a very good Chicago team that seems to be blowing out everyone.

The 5th reason is the only relevant trend I could find, but the Bears should be in a good spot off a close win over the Lions on Monday Night. Teams are 22-13 ATS off a divisional win of a touchdown or less on Monday Night, excluding teams coming off a bye. You might say, well that game wasn’t as close as the final score would suggest. That is true, but teams are 10-6 ATS off a Monday Night shutout, 5-2 ATS off a divisional Monday Night shutout. Favorites off a divisional shutout in general are 34-22 ATS.

The 6th and final reason is something I’ve referenced in most of my picks. I expect the disparity between favorites and dogs to close up. Dogs are 63-39 ATS this year. Neither dogs nor favorites have gone more than 10 games above .500 in a given year in at least the last decade. Because of that, any time you can take a favorite without betting on a heavy public lean (there’s a slight public lean on Chicago right now), you have to do it unless there’s a good reason not to. These games work double for the odds makers. They make them money (they always make money on slight leans because of the juice) and they help the disparity close so the public doesn’t start locking in on dogs. I like Chicago for a small play.

Public lean: Chicago (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Carolina covers)

Sharps lean: CAR 21 CHI 0

Final update: This is weird. I’m dropping a unit down.

Chicago Bears 31 Carolina Panthers 13

Pick against spread: Chicago -7.5 (-110) 1 unit

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San Diego Chargers at Cleveland Browns: Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 8 NFL Picks, Browns, Chargers

San Diego Chargers (3-3) at Cleveland Browns (1-6)

I normally hate taking teams that are heavily publicly backed, but that’s exactly what I’m doing by taking the Chargers this week. I’m also taking a West Coast team on the road in the Eastern Time Zone at 1 PM, a situation that is normally bad for the visiting team. Under Norv Turner, it’s been no different for the Chargers as they’ve gone 1-4 ATS when traveling 3 time zones for a 1 PM ET start.

The main reason I’m doing this is because the Chargers are road favorites off of a bye. Those teams tend to cover at an incredibly high rate, going 42-14 ATS since 2002. On top of that, as I’ve mentioned in other picks, I do expect the disparity between favorites and dogs to close up. Dogs are 63-39 ATS this year. Neither dogs nor favorites have gone more than 10 games above .500 in a given year in at least the last decade.

Because of that, it’s no longer a bad idea to take a heavily backed team, so long as they are favorites. It’s not going to be a big play or anything like that, but I like the Chargers to get a road win here and cover in Cleveland as long as the line is 3 or fewer. The Chargers are coming off a bye and have had to listen to how bad they are for 2 weeks after that embarrassing loss against the Broncos. Well how about this? Favorites are 29-15 ATS since 1989 after blowing a lead of 10 or more to a divisional opponent. After a bye, there’s obviously fewer cases, but teams are 4-1 ATS.

Public lean: San Diego (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Cleveland covers)

Sharps lean: SD 12 CLE 7

Final update: No change.

San Diego Chargers 27 Cleveland Browns 20

Pick against spread: San Diego -3 (-110) 2 units

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